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+--- Thread: The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship (/Thread-The-Straits-of-Hormuz-seem-to-be-warming-due-to-Geoplolitical-Games-and-Brinkmanship)
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Jan Klimkowski - 18-02-2012
This nonsense from Brit Foreign Secretary Hague is what happens when governments lie.
Everyone knows that Israel has nuclear weapons.
For some reason, Israel's nuclear weapons MUST NOT BE TALKED ABOUT, and ARE NOT SUBJECT TO INTERNATIONAL OVERSIGHT, INSPECTION AND CONTROL.
Cue Hague, to speak absolute nonsense, and ignore the fact that there already is a Middle Eastern arms race precisely because Israel has The Bomb.
Quote:Iran's nuclear ambitions could lead to 'Middle East cold war', says Hague
Foreign secretary said the world would face most serious round of nuclear proliferation since invention of atomic bomb
Chris McGreal in Washington, Conal Urquart and agencies
guardian.co.uk, Saturday 18 February 2012 10.51 GMT
The Middle East could be the battleground for a new cold war, if Iran succeeds in acquiring nuclear weapons, Britain's foreign secretary has warned.
William Hague said the world would face the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since the invention of the atomic bomb, which would be a "disaster in world affairs".
Hague's comments come as officials in Washington expressed fears that Iran is ignoring economic sanctions, increasing the likelihood of Israel and or the US attacking the Islamic Republic this year.
Hague insisted that the UK did not currently support military action against Iran but added "all options must remain on the table".
"[The Iranians] are clearly continuing their nuclear weapons programme," Hague told the Daily Telegraph. "If they obtain nuclear weapons capability, then I think other nations across the Middle East will want to develop nuclear weapons.
"And so, the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented would have begun with all the destabilising effects in the Middle East. And the threat of a new cold war in the Middle East without necessarily all the safety mechanisms. That would be a disaster in world affairs."
Hague's desire to give economic sanctions time to work is reflected in Washington. However, officials in key parts of the Obama administration are increasingly convinced that sanctions will not deter Tehran from pursuing its nuclear programme. They believe the US will be left with no option but to launch an attack on Iran or watch Israel do so.
The president has made clear in public, and in private to Israel, that he is determined to give sufficient time for recent measures to bite deeper into Iran's already battered economy before retreating from its principal strategy to pressure Tehran. These measures include the financial blockade and the looming European oil embargo.
But there is a strong current of opinion within the administration including in the Pentagon and the state department that believes sanctions are doomed to fail. They also believe their principal use now is in delaying Israeli military action, as well as reassuring Europe that an attack will only come after other means have been tested.
"The White House wants to see sanctions work. This is not the Bush White House. It does not need another conflict," said an official knowledgeable on Middle East policy. "Its problem is that the guys in Tehran are behaving like sanctions don't matter, like their economy isn't collapsing, like Israel isn't going to do anything.
"Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail, then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option."
The White House has said repeatedly that all options are on the table, including the use of force to stop Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, but that for now the emphasis is firmly on diplomacy and sanctions.
But long-held doubts among US officials about whether the Iranians can be enticed or cajoled into serious negotiations have been reinforced by recent events.
"We don't see a way forward," said one official. "The record shows that there is nothing to work with."
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed this week that Iran had loaded its first domestically-made fuel rod into a nuclear reactor, and he also threatened to cut oil supplies to six European countries. This was read as further evidence that Tehran remains defiantly committed to its nuclear programme.
If Obama were to conclude that there is no choice but to attack Iran, he is unlikely to order it before the presidential election in November, unless there is an urgent reason to do so. The question is whether the Israelis will hold back that long.
On Friday, the US and EU expressed optimism at the possibility of a resumption of talks with Iran. US secretary of state Hillary Clinton said a letter from Iran to the US and its allies was "one we have been waiting for".
But other US officials complained that the latest Iranian offer to negotiate with the UN security council appeared to contain no significant new concessions. They believed that renewed talks would likely steer discussions away from the nuclear programme.
That view was strengthened by Iran's increasingly belligerent moves such as the botched attempts, which were laid at Tehran's door, to attack Israeli diplomats in Thailand, India and Georgia. Such moves are compounding the sense that Iran is far from ready to negotiate.
Feeding into the considerations are the timing of the US election, including its bearing on Israeli thinking, as well as the pace of Iranian advances in their nuclear programme.
Obama has publicly said that there are no differences with Israel on Iran, describing his administration as in "lock step" with the Jewish state.
But the US and Israel are at odds over the significance of Iran's claim to have begun enriching uranium at the underground facility at Fordow, near the holy city of Qom, and therefore the timing of any military action.
Israel's defence minister, Ehud Barak, has warned that Iran cannot be allowed to establish a "zone of immunity" at Fordow, where it is able to work on a nuclear weapon deep underground and protected from Israel's conventional weapons. Earlier this month, Barak said Israel must consider an attack before that happens.
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
Iran Stops Oil Sales to British, French Companies
February 19th, 2012Via: Reuters:Iran has stopped selling crude to British and French companies, the oil ministry said on Sunday, in a retaliatory measure against fresh EU sanctions on the Islamic state's lifeblood, oil.
"Exporting crude to British and French companies has been stopped … we will sell our oil to new customers," spokesman Alireza Nikzad was quoted as saying by the ministry of petroleum website.
The European Union in January decided to stop importing crude from Iran from July 1 over its disputed nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building bombs. Iran denies this.
Iran's oil minister said on February 4 that the Islamic state would cut its oil exports to "some" European countries.
The European Commission said last week that the bloc would not be short of oil if Iran stopped crude exports, as they have enough in stock to meet their needs for around 120 days.
Industry sources told Reuters on February 16 that Iran's top oil buyers in Europe were making substantial cuts in supply months in advance of European Union sanctions, reducing flows to the continent in March by more than a third or over 300,000 barrels daily.
France's Total has already stopped buying Iran's crude, which is subject to fresh EU embargoes. Market sources said Royal Dutch Shell has scaled back sharply.
Among European nations, debt-ridden Greece is most exposed to Iranian oil disruption.
Posted in Economy, Energy, War
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Output
February 20th, 2012It's going to be another interesting spring at American gas stations…
Via: CNBC:
The world's top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, appears to have cut both its oil production and export in December, according to the latest update by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), an official source of oil production, consumption and export data.
The OPEC heavyweight saw production decline by 237,000 barrels per day (bpd) from three-decade highs of 10.047 million bpd in November, the JODI data showed on Sunday.
The draw-down was sharper for the actual amount exported, declining by 440,000 bpd, or 5.6 percent, to come in at 7.364 million bpd, the data also showed. The level would still be similar to exports after a steep ramp-up last June.
In its monthly report on February 10, the IEA put Saudi Arabia's production number for December slightly lower at 9.55 million bpd, a disparity of 260,000 bpd versus the JODI data.
Posted in Economy, Energy
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
Israel Deploying Iron Dome' in Tel Aviv
February 20th, 2012Via: AFP:
The Israeli military will on Monday deploy a battery of rocket interceptors from its "Iron Dome" system in the Tel Aviv region, a military spokesman said on Sunday.
"Iron Dome is being incorporated into the heart of the Israeli military. As part of this process, the system is deployed in different sites and will be in the Gush Dan region (of Tel Aviv) in the coming days," he said in a statement that clarified the deployment would begin on Monday.
This deployment "is part of the annual training plan for this system", he added.
The decision to site an Iron Dome battery at Tel Aviv comes amid heightened regional tensions and speculation about a possible Israeli attack targeting Iran's controversial nuclear programme.
Israel has denied that a decision has been taken to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The first battery of the unique multi-million-dollar Iron Dome system was deployed last March 27 outside the southern desert city of Beersheva, after it was hit by Grad rockets fired by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.
On April 4, the system was also deployed around the southern port city of Ashkelon.
Posted in War
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
Iranian State Media PressTV Claims Jamming in Europe and Online
February 20th, 2012Via: PressTV:
Jamming signals have been reportedly interrupting the broadcast of Press TV, Iran's 24-hour English-language news channel, in various locations across Europe.
Press TV viewers in Europe say the frequent attacks last three to four minutes each time.
Some reports indicate that the news channel's online stream is also targeted at the same time as jamming signals disrupt the broadcast of the channel.
Posted in Perception Management, War
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
And then there is the Israeli homefront.... though the sources will raise an eyebrow (or ought to):
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-02-20/israel-iran/53177692/1?csp=34news&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+usatoday-NewsTopStories+(News+-+Top+Stories)
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
'SWIFT Boating' Iran:
Economic War a Prelude to Military Attack
By Tom Burghardt
February 20, 2012 "Information Clearing House" --- Despite, though likely because, Iran is ready to restart negotiations with the so-called P5+1 group (the five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) over its civilian nuclear program, belligerent rhetoric and sharply-worded political attacks from Israel and the United States have escalated.
Indeed, as investigative journalist Robert Parry pointed out on the Consortium News web site, arch neocon Senator Joseph Lieberman "is leading a group of nearly one-third of the U.S. Senate urging that the red line on war with Iran be shifted from building a nuclear weapon to the vague notion of Iran having the 'capability' to build one."
"In other words," Parry warned, "the next preemptive war could be launched not against Iran for actually building a bomb or even trying to build a bomb but rather for simply having the skills that theoretically could be used sometime in the future to build a bomb. The 'red line' has been moved from some possible future development to arguably what already exists."
Last week Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili wrote European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, reiterating that the Islamic Republic's willingness to return to the negotiating table "is tied to the P5+1's constructive approach to Iran's initiatives," Press TV reported.
In that letter, Iran voiced their "readiness for dialogue on a spectrum of various issues which can provide ground for constructive and forward-looking cooperation," and that talks should be approached "on step-by-step principles and reciprocity."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, flanked by Ashton at a Friday press conference that was pure Kabuki theater said "We think this is an important step, and we welcome the letter," The Washington Postreported.
"I'm cautious and I'm optimistic at the same time for this," Ashton told reporters after a gabfest with Clinton at the State Department.
"It also demonstrates the importance of the twin-track approach," Ashton told The New York Times, "referring to the international effort to intensify sanctions while leaving the door open for a diplomatic resolution of concerns about the possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons."
In essence what Ashton is saying is: We have a gun pointed at your head and can pull the trigger at any time; better to capitulate now and give up your right to enrich uranium for your civilian program rather than run the risk of war.
Undeterred by implicit Western threats, Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi "has reiterated Tehran's determination to continue with its peaceful nuclear program, insisting on the nation's willingness to even deal with 'the worst-case scenario'," Press TV reported Sunday.
Speaking at a news conference Salehi asserted, "Since we believe that we are right, we do not have the slightest doubt in the pursuit of our nuclear program. Therefore, we plan to move ahead with vigor and confidence and we do not take much heed of [the West's] propaganda warfare. Even in the worse-case scenario, we remain prepared."
Lambasting the West's contradictory posture, hailing Iran's willingness to renew talks with the P5+1 nations on the one hand, while raising "baseless allegations" over Iran's civilian nuclear program on the other, Salehi observed that "they [the West] have an arrogant nature, they have not learned to engage in political interactions with prudent and humane manners."
The Foreign Minister however "expressed optimism" that "Western countries, as a whole will amend their policies towards Iran."
On Monday a team of IAEA inspectors arrived in Tehran, BBC News reported. Chief inspector Herman Nackaerts said their "highest priority" was to clarify the "possible military dimensions" of Iran's nuclear program.
Although the Agency had described their last visit in January as "positive," saying that Iran was "committed to resolving all outstanding issues," as in the case of Iraq a decade ago, an unnamed U.S. official told The New York Times that the meeting was "a disaster" that demonstrated Iranian "foot-dragging."
The IAEA's board of governors "is scheduled to convene on March 5 in Vienna, the same day on which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to give a speech in Washington at a meeting of the annual policy conference of the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee," Haaretzdisclosed.
Talk about coincidences!
'SWIFT-Boating' Iran
In her remarks last week, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that any resumption of talks "will have to be a sustained effort that can produce results." Translation: "Iran will give in to all our demands--or else."
The "or else" wasn't long in coming.
In fact on Friday, the same day that Ashton and Clinton expressed "cautious optimism" over a resumption of P5+1 talks, the Brussels-based Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT network, "bowed to international pressure," Reuters reported, "and said it was ready to block Iranian banks from using its network to transfer money."
So much for "confidence building" measures ahead of negotiations!
Washington's latest move to strangle the Iranian economy, follow efforts by the U.S. and EU to enact crippling sanctions that would punish countries and financial institutions if they do not cut-off purchases of Iranian oil.
However, the Associated Press reported last week, "American attempts to get major Asian importers of Iranian oil to rein in their purchases are faltering as allies South Korea and Japan give U.S. officials a polite brushoff."
"Emerging giants India and China may even increase their purchases," AP disclosed.
Indeed, as a close ally of Tehran "China has also dug its heels in--in fact, far deeper than either South Korea or Japan. Beijing turned a blind eye to efforts by American Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to get it to cut back on Iranian imports during a January visit."
"Earlier this month," AP reported, "the Communist Party newspaper People's Daily described Western efforts to pressure Iran with an oil embargo as 'casting a shadow over the global economy'."
In this light, the move to cut-off Iranian banks from the SWIFT network will have far-reaching ramifications and will surely intensify Washington's geopolitical machinations targeting their Asian capitalist rivals.
In an email published by Reuters, the private company declared that "SWIFT stands ready to act and discontinue its services to sanctioned Iranian financial institutions as soon as it has clarity on EU legislation currently being drafted."
The Iranian response quickly followed the announcement. Last week, Iran said it would "immediately" order a preemptive embargo of crude oil exports to six recession-hit European nations--Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, France and the Netherlands.
"It took virtually no time for Iran's Oil Ministry and then the Foreign Ministry to deny it," Asia Times Online analyst Pepe Escobar wrote.
"But only the deaf, dumb and blind wouldn't understand the message; blowback for the ridiculously counter-productive European sanctions/oil embargo package will only plunge vast swathes of Europe further into deep economic pain," Escobar observed.
Making good on a pledge approved by Parliament earlier this month, the Iranian Oil Ministry announced it has cut oil exports "to British and French firms in line with the decision to end crude exports to six European states," Press TV disclosed Sunday.
Oil Ministry spokesperson Alireza Nikzad-Rahbar said that Iran would have no problem exporting and selling crude oil to its customers.
"We have our own oil customers and replacements for these [British and French] companies have already been chosen and we will sell the crude oil to new customers instead of the British and French companies," Nikzad-Rahbar averred.
On Monday, Iran's Deputy Oil Minister Ahmad Qalebani "hinted at the possibility of a halt in oil exports to Spain, the Netherlands, Greece, Germany, Italy and Portugal," Press TV disclosed.
"Undoubtedly if the hostile actions of certain European countries continue, oil exports to these countries will be stopped," Qalebani said.
Call it round two of a new tit-for-tat oil war where almost everyone loses.
As financial jackals and capitalist hyenas lusting after publicly-owned assets in cash-strapped EU states such as Greece, Italy and Spain move in for the kill, Washington's one-two punch against Iran and recession-hammered EU workers will have have the salutary effect of hastening "reform," i.e., the immiseration of millions of proletarians "transitioning" to their new role as low-paid wage slaves in a global order lorded over by Wall Street and the City of London.
In a Press TV interview, two Italian lawmakers voiced "their serious concern about Tehran halting oil exports to some European states."
Democratic Party Senator Francesco Ferrante told the Iranian news outlet that "Rome is currently importing a great deal of its needed oil from Iran."
"As a result, Italy will suffer more than other countries from the decision of cutting oil supplies to European states taken by the Iranian government," he added.
Ferrante said that "Italians' everyday lives will be affected as fuel prices are likely to go up [as a result of Iran oil cut]. The [oil] cut will also have negative consequences on Italian companies."
Another senator, Stefano Saglia from Italy's People of Liberty Party, told Press TV: "Without a doubt, Italy is the European country that will be damaged the most from this situation as Iran and Italy have always been close business partners."
And with a massive strike wave earlier this month against harsh austerity measures imposed on Italy's combative working class by the unelected government of Prime Minister Mario Monti, the European Chairman of David Rockefeller's Trilateral Commission and a leading member of the shadowy Bilderberg Group, an Iranian oil boycott could send the Italian economy over the cliff.
As a result of escalating tensions, Forbes reported on Friday that the price of crude oil "has gone on a nice rally in February and a perfect storm has brewed that promises to take it higher."
"Markets have underestimated how tight global oil markets truly are," Forbes disclosed. So much for U.S. fantasies that Saudi Arabia or the Gulf monarchies will make up any shortfalls that arise from removing Iranian oil from international markets.
"Supply-side issues, particularly the problems around Iran, and demand-side issues, especially very strong Asian and Chinese demand, will help take prices higher. A weak U.S. dollar adds a final drop that could take U.S. prices to $118 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2012, according to Barclays."
"West Texas Intermediate contracts for March delivery, currently trading at $103.52 a barrel, have gained on eight of the last ten trading days while Brent, the international benchmark, recorded six positive sessions over the same time frame and was at $119.62 as of 4:20PM in New York on Friday," Forbes reported.
Following Monday's report that Iran may be poised to halt oil shipments to additional EU states, "crude for March delivery rose as much as $2.20 to $105.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday price since May 5," Bloomberg News reported.
"The more actively traded April contract gained $1.64 to $105.45. Prices increased 4.6 percent last week and are up 6.1 percent so far this year." Additionally, "Brent oil for April settlement on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange climbed as much as $1.57, or 1.3 percent, to $121.15 a barrel.
According to Christopher Bellew, "a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London, who correctly predicted last week that the price of Brent crude would advance to $120 a barrel," increasing tensions in the Persian Gulf "continues to support prices," Bloomberg noted.
Commenting on the deteriorating situation, NusConsulting Group analyst Richard Soultanian told Forbesthat "Market prices currently reflect a significant risk premia for the potential of a supply disruption from a geopolitical event," i.e., a "preemptive" attack on Iran. "However, the amount of risk premia currently included does not fully account for an actual event/supply disruption."
In plain English, should a U.S./Israeli/NATO attack force Iran's hand into closing the strategic energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, as a defensive response to Western aggression, global energy prices will skyrocket and quickly wreck havoc on recession-plagued capitalist economies.
According to Barclay analysts, "Our view remains that policy and circumstances are now both running fast enough for policy accidents and unintended consequences to play a role. In other words, in our view, the probability of the situation becoming 'hot' in some way that affects the oil market is now significant and perhaps rising, in a way which makes the maintenance of too entrenched a short position in the market increasingly difficult."
Will the SWIFT cut-off work? "Hardly," according to Asia Times. "It will certainly represent more devastation unleashed over 'the Iranian people'--the vague entity of choice against which the US has 'no quarrel.' More than 40 Iranian banks use SWIFT to process financial transactions, and Iranians use it like everybody else in a globalized economy."
However, Pepe Escobar writes, "it will drag SWIFT's carefully maintained reputation for trust and neutrality through the mud; imagine other member countries' reaction to the fact they can also be totally marginalized according to the US's whims."
The "message" was delivered to the Europeans "Mafia-style" Escobar averred, "in person" by David Cohen, U.S. Treasury Department Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence.
On Friday Cohen told The Washington Post that cutting-off Iranian access to SWIFT "would build on earlier U.S. efforts to exclude Iranian banks from international commerce."
"It's another good turn of the screw," Cohen said.
Really?
"If the Washington/Tel Aviv-promoted hysteria is already at fever pitch," Asia Times warned, "wait for March 20, when the Iranian oil bourse will start trading oil in other currencies apart from the US dollar, heralding the arrival of a new oil marker to be denominated in euro, yen, yuan, rupee or a basket of currencies."
"That may be the straw to break the American camel's back."
Sometime in March, the USS Enterprise, along with a large contingent of U.S. Marines will join two other aircraft carrier battle groups and NATO warships and enter waters off Iran's coast.
Earlier this month, the Enterprise and NATO military units, including forces from Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand concluded maneuvers, including large-scale amphibious landings against an unnamed "hostile power."
The menacing tone of U.S. rhetoric was matched by the deployment of American firepower. The Associated Press reported last week that U.S. Fifth Fleet Commander, Vice Admiral Mark Fox said that the Navy has "built a wide range of potential options to give the president" and is "ready today" to confront any hostile action by Tehran.
"We've developed very precise and lethal weapons that are very effective, and we're prepared," AP reported. "We're just ready for any contingency."
As the World Socialist Web Site recently pointed out, what Fox and other Pentagon big wigs have "outlined is the classic scenario for a US provocation that could provide the pretext for war--the appearance of 'Iranian' mines, an inflammatory media campaign and a US attack on Iranian naval assets that rapidly escalates into all-out conflict."
"The US has a history of manufacturing naval episodes to serve as a casus belli," Peter Symonds warned. "The notorious Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964, in which Vietnamese PT boats allegedly attacked a US destroyer, was exploited to obtain congressional approval for a massive US military intervention in Indochina."
Today, with the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration marching in "lockstep" with Israel as it plans to launch a "preemptive" war of aggression against Iran, and as the administration allies itself, once again, with the Afghan-Arab database of disposable Western intelligence assets, also known as Al Qaeda, in its "regime change" program targeting Iran's ally, Syria, a major global conflict is a provocation away.Tom Burghardt : A researcher and activist based in the San Francisco Bay Area. In addition to publishing in Covert Action Quarterly, Love & Rage and Antifa Forum, he is the editor of Police State America: U.S. Military "Civil Disturbance" Planning, distributed by AK Press. www.antifascist-calling.blogspot.com/
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 21-02-2012
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 2012
WAR AGAINST IRAN: A METICULOUSLY PLANNED U.S./ISRAEL JOINT ASSAULT
The way the rhetoric and propaganda is being presented to the world at the moment, one might be forgiven for thinking that any war launched against Iran will be as a result of Israeli impatience of the Obama administration's apparent reluctance to attack Iran.
That may well be the rhetoric and the propaganda but it is far from reality.
The forthcoming attack against Iran will not be as a result of some series of events that leads to a spontaneous knee-jerk Israeli raid against Iran's nuclear facilities but, rather, will be as a result of meticulous planning with every single detail and scenario carefully worked out beforehand.
In keeping with the current propaganda whereby Israel says it needs to act now in order to thwart Iran building a bomb at any time very soon but the US on the other hand says it needs to give economic sanctions against Iran time to bite, a war against Iran is likely to be started initially by a first strike against Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel. This initial Israeli strike will then be immediately followed up by a massive bombing campaign against Iranian defence facilities as well as its governmental institutions by the US who will take over entirely from the Israelis who will then concentrate on attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will then be fully occupied as will be south Lebanon up to the Litani River.
While outwardly this series of events may seem to be as a result of spontaneous escalation started by Israeli impatience, in reality it will have been well scripted and thoroughly planned months ahead and awaiting only opportunity to trigger that first strike. This plan gets Obama off the hook with the American people as the November presidential election looms. He can claim that he was a reluctant participant and, despite what he will claim to be Isreali impetuousness, will say he had no alternative to back Israel all the way after they had made the first strike. Once war is underway, the American people will far more likely be in support of it if it can be seen that Israel started it than if Obama made the first strike.
The logistics of mounting a full-on war against Iran are enormous and the propaganda effort leading up to such a war is just a part of those logistics. Both the Israelis and the US have been carefully preparing and planning for this war since at least January 2010 when the US approved money for Israel to begin stockpiling hi-tech weapons and August 2010 when the Israelis ordered massive amounts of military fuel from the US. They know they will only get one shot at realising their real war aims.
The Israelis will say, and have been saying for years, that their war aim is simply to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons and the opening shots of the war will be based on a casus belli of Iran getting too close to building a nuclear weapon. But depriving Iran of nuclear weapons is not at all their real war aims. Their real war aims are far more ambitious.
A strike against Iran will provide Israel with an opportunity to attack both Hezbollah and Hamas on the pretence of pre-empting a retaliatory strike by these groups for attacking Iran. Israel will launch an all-out attack against all its enemies under the cover of the devastating US war against Iran. Their war aims are simple; for Israel it is to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah and begin a process of permanent occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as well, so they hope, of south Lebanon up to the Litani River that will lead to eventual annexation and the creation of a Greater Israel. The US by securing victory against the Iranians with overwhelming fire power will eliminate any opposition to US hegemony in the Middle East.
This will not simply be a knee-jerk war out of fear of a non-existent Iranian nuclear bomb threat. This war has been very carefully planned and awaits only opportunity. The aim is regime change to favour both Israel and the US, and it will be an excuse for the Israelis to also eliminate their enemies and to take the next steps toward their dream of creating a Greater Israel.
Posted by Damian Lataan at 4:34 PM
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Email ThisBlogThis!Share to TwitterShare to FacebookThe Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 24-02-2012
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February 22-23, 2012 -- Israeli strategy for Iran war exposed
WMR has learned from U.S. defense intelligence community sources that America's signals and human intelligence collection activities aimed at Israel have yielded important intelligence on how the Israelis plan to ratchet up a war with Iran between a planned "window of opportunity" from April to June. The window was revealed publicly by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in a recent interview with The Washington Post's David Ignatius but new details of Israel's plans were conveyed by senior Pentagon sources to WMR.
Israel's secret plans to set the stage for an attack on Iran are two-pronged. Firstly, Israel has concluded secret military basing and refueling agreements with Sunni Muslim countries bordering on or near Iran. Azerbaijan has granted Israel warplane refueling rights at airbases in Azerbaijan. Israeli planes would conceivably re-fuel in Azerbaijan before and after air strikes on Iranian nuclear facility and other targets. Israel has also been given access to a number of Azerbaijani intelligence agents among Iran's Azeri community, which represents some 20 percent of Iran's population, most of whom live in northern Iran's majority Azeri province. The Azeri agents have been providing logistical support to Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) terrorists operating from Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan. MEK agents have been responsible for car bombing assassinations and assassination attempts of Iranian scientists linked to Iran's nuclear power program.
Recent charges by Azerbaijan's government that Iranian agents planned to target Jewish and Israeli facilities in Azerbaijan appears to be part of a Mossad "false flag" campaign designed to keep Azerbaijan firmly in the secret Israeli-Sunni government alliance. Iran has counter-charged that Azerbaijan has allowed Mossad agents to use its territory to launch covert operations inside Iran.
The Israeli "false flag" operation that saw a car bomb defused outside the Israeli embassy in Tbilisi, Georgia also appears aimed at garnering full support from Georgia for base rights in an Israeli attack on Iran. Georgia and Iran have had friendly relations in the past.
In addition to support for MEK terrorists, the government of Iraqi Kurdistan has also agreed to allow Israel to establish forward-area search and rescue (SAR) bases near the border with Iran to allow Israeli team to extract from Iran Israeli pilots who might be shot down over Iran during military action.
Israel has also received military logistics basing rights with Saudi Arabia in a secret agreement. Although Israel sought to hammer out support agreements with Sunni governments on Iran's periphery in support of a military attack on Iran, an Israeli feeler personally extended by then-Vice President Dick Cheney to the Sultan of Oman in March 2008 failed to achieve an agreement that would allow Israel to use Omani bases to re-fuel its aircraft in a military attack on Iranian targets. Subsequently, Azerbaijan replaced Oman in Israel's military operartional planning for an attack.
The second part of Israel's strategy is to paint Iran as a terrorist sponsor responsible for attacking Israeli targets. Israel hopes to gain international sympathy in support of an attack on Iran. Israel's reasoning is that Israel will be viewed as acting in self-defense.
The car bombing of the vehicle of the Israeli defense attache in New Delhi was part of the propaganda blitz aimed at Iran. In addition, the bombing in the Indian capital was also designed to warn India away from plans to export more oil from Iran in the face of increased Western sanctions on Iran. As previously reported by WMR, India's intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has discovered evidence of Israeli "false flag" terrorist activities in Mumbai, Goa, and Kochi and has made its feelings about such activities known to Israeli officials.
In Thailand, a cell said to have been responsible for the construction of magnetic car bombs in Bangkok were not working for Iran, as alleged by an Israel-compliant international news media, but were members of the MEK building small bombs disguised as cell phone and sending them to Iran for use in targeting nuclear scientists. After WMR scooped the media in reporting on the MEK connection to the Bangkok bombers, the Shia leader of Thailand, Syedsulaiman Husaini, confimed, in a report in the Bangkok Post, that four Iranians suspects said to be involved in carrying out a planned bombing of Israeli targets in Bangkok were members of the MEK. The Bangkok Post also reported that a secret Iranian intelligence report identified the four Iranians in Thailand as MEK members.
An MEK safe house in the Ekkamai district of Bangkok that was partially destroyed in an accidental bomb explosion was identified as the miniature magnetic bomb-producing factory used by the MEK. The safe house was outfitted with un-Islamic purple sofas often found in Bangkok karaoke clubs and gay discos. There was not even a prayer rug found inside the house allegedly used by Iranians willing to die for Allah and the Ayatollah Khamenei.
After its Bangkok bomb-making operation was discovered, the Mossad attempted to cover its tracks by putting out the word to a salivating media that a number of clearly visible signs with the Arabic word "SEJEAL" found along Sukhumvit Road between the Marriott Hotel in Nana and Asoke in Bangkok were Iranian marker signs to point out Israeli targets to the Iranian bombers. In fact, the Marriott is a favorite hotel for visiting Arabs and Iranians who fly to Bangkok from Dubai on Emirates airline. Across the street from the Marriott, is the Arab district in Nana. There are no Israeli "targets" anywhere near the area.
However, after the bungled Mossad-MEK operation in Bangkok, Mossad tried to salvage its mess by trying to link the alleged planned "attacks" to the Palestinians as well as the Iranians, the same ruse Mossad employed on 9/11 by having Israeli agents dressed up as Palestinians seen around the North Jersey/New York region celebrating the hijacked planes impacting the World Trade Center. In Bangkok, the Israelis pushed the notion of Palestinian involvement by pointing out that the rockets fired from Gaza into Israeli are called "Sejeal Stones" by Palestinians in a Koranic reference to a Yemeni attack on the Prophet Mohammed being repelled after stones dropped by "birds from heaven" repelled the Yemenis after the stones scared their elephants away.
Some 52 SEJEAL signs were discovered on power poles, traffic signs, phone kiosks, and billboards along a route from Nana to Asoke. Other SEJEAL signs were said to have been discovered in the Nasa Vegas Hotel along the Sukhumvit Road where one of the suspected MEK operatives, Leila Rohani, had stayed. Six of the signs were found under the seat of one of the other MEK agent's motorcycle seat.
![[Image: 2012-02-21BKKPOst.jpg]](http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/custom/2012-02-21BKKPOst.jpg)
SEJEAL signs: "Much 'bird do" about nothing."
The SEJEAL signs would not have meant much to the Arabs and Iranians in the area since they could have taken the signs as a warning for unsuspecting pedestrians to beware of droppings from the many birds, especially starlings, that roost on electric lines and overhead signs in the area.
Pentagon sources point out that the next two weeks are critical as far as an Israeli attack on Iran in concerned. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has moved up its annual meeting in Washington from the usual April/May time frame to March 4. That day is the same day as Russia's first round presidential election. If Prime Minister Vladimir Putin wins the first round outright, as some Russian polls suggest, Israel will be pressed to launch an attack before Putin consolidates his new government, a government that can be expected to strongly back Iran. Putin is currently riding high with the spike in world oil prices, with pensions and salaries in Russia being paid on time.
On March 5, the same day President Obama meets with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the White House, the International Atomic Energy Agency is due to release its official report on the status of Iran's nuclear program.
On March 6, Netanyahu is scheduled to address AIPAC. It is the same day as the Republican Party's "Super Tuesday" primary, one that could indicate whether the ardently pro-Israeli Rick Santorum can sustain his current momentum to win the GOP presidential nomination, an event that would bolster Israel's stranglehold on America's political process and push Obama into a difficult corner with the Jewish lobby.
Some of that Israeli pressure has already been applied by Jerusalem officials on Joint Chiefs Chairman General Martin Dempsey who has been criticized by Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak over an interview given to CNN in which Dempsey publicly warned against an Israeli attack on Iran. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon is in Israel where Dempsey's comments resulted in a strong rebuke by Netanyahu and Barak. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper is due next in Israel to convey similar misgivings about Israel's war plans from the Obama White House.
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http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/articles/20120222
The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - Ed Jewett - 24-02-2012
Israel backing down from Iran threats
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Israel is backing down from her threats to bomb Iran.In a scathing loss of face for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, diplomatic sources in Israel have revealed that President Shimon Peres will meet privately with President Obama at the White House before - repeat before Netanyahu.
High level sources in Israel have just leaked a sanitized version of the President's plan to the Israeli press. But, there is much more to the story. In his meeting at the White House, Peres will inform Obama that Netanyahu has performed poorly in his handling of the Iran nuclear crisis and that bellicose statements from the Prime Minister's cabinet have been both self-intimidating and self-destructive.
IF this information is true, it is a strong potential victory for peace, and all those who advocate peace and dialogue as being the intelligent way of resolving international conflicts.
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