Quote:We'll Survive Until the Day After Tomorrow


By Parmen Posokhov


Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

The militia offensive has been halted almost everywhere except for the Debaltsevo pocket. The resources of the militia first-line have been nearly exhausted. However, the main forces, which comprise the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] echelon, have not been sent into action, in contrast to the Ukrainian army which had thrown into battle nearly everything it had, and now is desperately begging the world for military and financial assistance, and to squeeze Russia with sanctions. That the junta is in a state of panic was made obvious enough by the hysterical vote in the Rada which labeled Russia an aggressor. It is possible to finish off the Kiev regime in this situation, but Moscow is waiting. We are in an operational pause. The question is: what are we waiting for? Perhaps tomorrow's EU decision concerning new sanctions against Russia. There will definitely be sanctions. It's not clear how many and whom they'll affect. Maybe they'll cut us off from SWIFT, maybe not. Maybe two more rating agencies degrade Russia, maybe not. And so on.

I don't know whether it's worth waiting, for tactical reasons, the results of the EU sit-down, but it's clear that they'll cut us off from SWIFT, and degrade our rating, and do many other things, if not tomorrow then the day after tomorrow or next month. So what are we waiting for? For the Right Sector to bring up their "Hitler Youth" to the front line? Or when NATO instructors start appearing in large numbers to replace the killed off officer corps of the Ukrainian army? That they'll start appearing there is no doubt. They already started. And not a few. There will be a war. Until victory, or until the last Ukrainian.

Washington has given its go-ahead. Donbass is to be wiped off the face of the Earth. Ukraine must win. And Russia must stop helping DPR and LPR, and turn its back in shame as the Donbass is drowning in blood. UN and OSCE already turned their backs, noticing only the bloody Ukrainian provocations attributed to the militia. From now on they will work hand in glove. There will be no compromise. They demand Russia's capitulation. Unconditional, without saving face. Will we accept that?

We will not, and there is no other choice. Irrespective of tomorrow's EU decision concerning sanctions, it's time to attack. Any pause only helps the Ukrainians. The first phase of January battles has served its purpose. It forced them to reveal its military deployment scheme and introduce both tactical and operational reserves into battle. Any further delay will negatively affect our forces' morale and on the future combat operations. Not to mention the Russian society which is already in astonishment at how the Ukrainian army is continuing to annihilate the Donbass with impunity.

Half-measures are stupid. We already saw last spring, when we recognized the Kiev regime, and during the Fall, when we signed the Minsk agreements. Half-measures, spread over time, do not become any less dumb. How many times can we step on the same rake?

Translator's Note: The author makes a perfectly valid point, namely that Russia has been pulling its punches over the last year. Clearly the survival of the Ukrainian economy and therefore the Ukrainian state is in Kremlin's hands. One is left with the impression that the Russian government does not want to see Poroshenko fall and be replaced by a Right Sector regime or some other variation on that theme. Ultimately Russia does not want to see Ukraine suffer, in stark contrast to its "western partners" who are entirely indifferent to the suffering on the ground. The calculation may be that Poroshenko, a thoroughgoing opportunist rather than an ideologue, needs more time to rein in, or rid himself of, the extremists, then start rebuilding Ukraine's relations with Russia. However, should the Kremlin decide Poroshenko and Ukraine are lost causes, it will write both of them off. And Ukraine cannot survive that as a state.

Quote:Overall, the situation on the fronts is currently moderately favorable for us: the successes in the area of the Debalcevo pocket generally outweigh the junta successes in stopping our offensive in the area of the Bakhmutka road and the airport, which it couldn't recapture in the end. The battle runs on counter courses, both sides are trying to make progress. The ongoing fighting once again shows that the sides defend better than attack. It is unlikely that we'll see ideal geometry of the Debalcevo pocket instead of a rapid encirclement operation, like it was under Ilovaysk, we see a protracted and bloody chiping away at the enemy defense from the north-east of Debalcevo and Svetlodarsk. The progress is difficult, but there is progress, and the enemy is bending despite its resilience and the deployment of reserves. In essence, the battle for the Debalcevo pocket culminates the NAF offensive that started after the victory in the fighting for the airport. We will be able to assess the overall success of the January offensive of the NAF by its results.

As before, artillery remains the main damage factor. With respect to infantry, our forces compensate a certain advantage of the enemy by high morale.
Periodic interruptions in the supply of ammunition and mediocre cooperation of the infantry with tanks and artillery must be noted among the drawbacks on our side (the militia became an army just a short time ago and the growing pains are present). On the side of the junta one must note mediocre resilience of the infantry recruited from conscripts (after a major push they often simply flee), the lamentable quality of staff work from brigade and above, and also the action under the conditions of disloyal population. Overall, both sides still have a number of structural weaknesses, which noticeably decrease the effectiveness of actions of fighting detachments.

Also the fighting showed the futility of hopes for a rapid disintegration of the AFU front line and of the triumphant fantasies of how the NAF will go and immediately take Debalcevo, Avdeyevka, and Mariupol. The enemy, benefitting from the numerical superiority and being in defense, repelled our attacks more or less successfully on the majority of locations and inflicted quite comparable losses. Thus, as before, I forewarn against underestimating the military of the junta this is not the same army that was routed in the summer. So, the NAF are currently acting within the confines of what is possible. The "north wind" reserves are not engaged directly at this moment, although the logistical and the informational/reconnaisance support is provided. The question here is not a military one but rather a political one and the engagement of these reserves may depend more on the international situation around Novorossia and the degree of the escalation of the relations between the USA and the Russian Federation.

Quote: DONETSK. Jan 30 (Interfax) - The self-proclaimed Donetsk people's republic (DPR) militia have taken control of Vuhlehirsk and encircled Debaltseve, DPR deputy defense minister Eduard Basurin said.
"The DPR army has fully taken the town of Vuhlehirsk under control and encircled Debaltseve. The road to Artemivsk was taken yesterday. The overall number of Ukrainian armed forces troops sealed in the trap is 8,000," Basurin said.
DPR head Oleksandr Zakharchenko has signed a decree on sparing the Ukrainian servicemen's lives, he said.
"Eleven Ukrainian troops crossed the DPR border today. Nothing threatens their lives," he added.
Kyiv has denied Debaltseve's encirclement, but some representatives of the Ukrainian armed forces have confirmed that the militia have taken control of Vuhlehirsk.

Lauren Johnson Wrote:The Debalstevo boiler now in place:


Supposedly, there is large force staged at Artemvosk intended to break the encirclement.

Ukrainian Oligarch Fugitives Wanted by Interpol, Pay Bribes for Israeli Citizenship

Michael Barwell Wrote:Whenever my synthetic trigeminal neuralgia comes on and I'm watching the latest on those naughty Russkis on the news, this sketch comes to mind - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToKcmnrE5oY -Mitchell and Webb: "Are we the baddies?"

David Guyatt Wrote:

Michael Barwell Wrote:Whenever my synthetic trigeminal neuralgia comes on and I'm watching the latest on those naughty Russkis on the news, this sketch comes to mind - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToKcmnrE5oY -Mitchell and Webb: "Are we the baddies?"

I enjoyed that!

Quote:Minsk hosts meeting of the tripartite contact group in Ukraine.Negotiations began in the afternoon, told representatives of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry. All participants in the collection ..

The first came authorized DNR and LC Denis Pushilin and Vladisal Dane.From Kiev arrived former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.Intermediaries are the representatives of Russia and the OSCE.

Negotiations are taking place as the last time in December, behind closed doors. The task of the contact group - Minsk consolidate the ceasefire, withdrawal of arms and assistance to affected areas.