Quote:92 feared dead as Russian plane with military band crashes en route to Syria

Published time: 25 Dec, 2016 04:35Edited time: 25 Dec, 2016 12:38
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A rescue operation on the Black Sea coast at the crash site of Russian Defense Ministry's TU-154 aircraft © Nina Zotina / Sputnik


Rescue helicopters have discovered debris in the Black Sea from a Russian military transport plane which went off radar en route to Syria. Most of the passengers on the Tu-154 were members of the famous Alexandrov Ensemble army choir.
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LIVE UPDATES: Russian military plane with 91 on board disappears en route to Syria
According to preliminary reports, the Tupolev transport plane had 92 people on board, including 84 passengers and eight crew members. It went missing over the Black Sea at 2:40 GMT shortly after refueling at an airport near Sochi.
Most of the passengers on board were members of the Alexandrov Ensemble, the official choir of the Russian Armed Forces, the Russian Defense Ministry said. They were travelling from Moscow to the Russian military base Khmeimim near Latakia, Syria to take part in a Christmas celebration with troops deployed there. The head of the choir, conductor and composer Valery Khalilov, is among the 65 members of the ensemble presumed dead in the accident.
Crews from Channel One Russia, NTV, and Zvezda (the official media outlet of the Russian Defense Ministry), each with three members, were on board as well, the outlets confirmed.
The passenger list released by the defense ministry also includes Elizaveta Glinka, a prominent charity activist and humanitarian worker. She is best known by her blogger nickname "Doctor Liza." Some reports initially said she may have deplaned in Sochi, but the Presidential Council for Human Rights confirmed that she was on board.
Glinka was best known for aiding children with serious conditions like cancer, homeless people, and other vulnerable individuals. In the past few years, she organized humanitarian missions to conflict zones, including eastern Ukraine and Syria. For her efforts, she was awarded the Order of Friendship in 2012, the fifth highest state award in Russia.
Search operation near the coast of the Black Sea where a Russian Defense Ministry Tu-154 plane crashed shortly after take-off © Nina Zotina / Sputnik



Helicopters dispatched from Sochi to search for the aircraft have discovered the crash site, the ministry reported.
"Hull fragments of the Tu-154 plane operated by the Defense Ministry have been found about 1.5 km off the Black Sea coast of Sochi at a depth of 50-70 meters," the ministry said in a statement.
Around 3,000 people are involved in a search and rescue operation in the 10.5 square kilometer area, the defense ministry announced. The 24/7 operation is being conducted by 27 vessels with 37 divers on board, unmanned flying vehicles, and four helicopters, officials added.
So far, no survivors have been found in the sea, local rescue services told Interfax.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed of the plane's crash, the Kremlin said.

At this point, it appears we did not receive data from the Russian Tu-154 that crashed after departure from Sochi.
Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2016

TASS reports that weather conditions in the regions were "favorable" to aviation. No civilian flights have been cancelled yet.
The Tupolev Tu-154 is a three-engine medium-range transport plane designed in the 1960s. It is capable of carrying up to 180 passengers, depending on the version. There are about 50 aircraft of this type remaining in operation throughout the world, with the Russian Air Force having the biggest fleet.
The plane that crashed near Sochi was a Tu-154B-2 with registration number RA-85572. The passenger capacity was boosted to 180. The aircraft has been in service since 1983, according to the online registry russianplanes.net. The defense ministry said the plane spent 6,689 hours in flight.
Over the decades, there have been around four dozen fatal incidents involving the aircraft, most of which were due to pilot error or improper maintenance. One of the most widely publicized crashes happened in 2010 near Smolensk, Russia, when a Tu-154M of the Polish Air Force carrying Polish President Lech Kaczynski and his entourage crashed in foggy weather, killing all 96 people on board.



https://www.rt.com/news/371623-russian-tu-154-disappears-radars/

• Mechanical failure: unlikely. The Tu-154 is a three engine aircraft and an extremely strong beast. It's safety record is comparable to most aircraft of its time, even though it was often used in extreme conditions other aircraft types did not have to operate in. The Tu-154 had already taken enough altitude to attempt a return to base or even a water landing. The weather that day was good. Besides, the crew did not communicate any problem. Thus the disaster had to be instantaneous.
  
• Fuel problem: unlikely. Fuel problems are always a prime suspect when a crash occurs, but even if the engines had suddenly experienced problems or even a full shutdown, the pilots would have had the time to report this. Also, like any other aircraft, the Tu-154 can glide and maneuver without power.
  
• Bird strike: unlikely. I am not even sure that there have ever been a triple engine failure due to a bird strike but even if there has been, they crew could have reported it which it did not. And, again, the case of US Airways flight 1549 has shown that even a catastrophic birdstrike does not prevent a fully loaded airliner from attempting to land.
  
• Pilot error: highly unlikely. The guys flying this aircraft where extremely experienced and while human error is always possible, it mostly results in situation were it can be reported. The Tu-154 was a very complex aircraft to operate and it had its weaknesses but these were all very well known to the Russian crews and this crew was a very experienced one.
  
• Missile: unlikely. The Tu-154 has three engines including one mounted over the top of the rear of the fuselage and a MANPAD type missile warhead does not have the kind of blast radius capable of taking out all three of them. As for bigger missiles, the Black Sea coasts of Russia is very tightly controlled by the Russian military and security services (as is the entire Black Sea) and to get that close to the city of Sochi would be risky and difficult.
  
• Sabotage/bomb: most likely simply because all other causes are even less likely. True, this was a military aircraft with, supposedly, good security. Alas, I can confirm from personal experience that if you look Russian and speak Russian like a native and if you act the right way, military security in Russia is nowhere near as good as it should be. However, if you speak with an accent or look foreign, and that includes speaking with a Caucasian accent or looking like somebody from the Caucasus, you would have a much harder time beating the controls.
  

Magda Hassan Wrote:Fine. But what was it then? Experienced pilot. Full tank. Just a couple of kilometres from take off. Light/explosion seen in sky. Not deep water. Wide recovery area. It seems the authorities are wanting to play this very quiet indeed.

Lauren Johnson Wrote:

Magda Hassan Wrote:Fine. But what was it then? Experienced pilot. Full tank. Just a couple of kilometres from take off. Light/explosion seen in sky. Not deep water. Wide recovery area. It seems the authorities are wanting to play this very quiet indeed.

If it was murder, I am convinced Russia will not admit it, since it would require the state to do something about it.

John Knoble Wrote:Russia Today reports it wasn't terrorism.