When Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared after visiting his country's consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2, the Trump administration barely raised a (public) eyebrow.
After being pushed on the story which got even worse by the day, with reports out of Turkey describing a 15-member Saudi assassination squad that flew into the country, tortured, and dismembered Khashoggi, and left with his body parts President Donald Trump's comments have run the gamut from dismissal to soft threats against the Gulf kingdom.
Last Thursday, Trump told reporters that Khashoggi is not a U.S. citizen and it's none of the U.S.'s business. By the weekend, the president had seemed to realize that the case was bad and demanded that Saudi answer for it (but he wouldn't make the Gulf Arab kingdom uncomfortable enough to back out of $110 billion in U.S. weapons deals and potential Lockheed Martin F-35 jet sales). On Monday, Trump seemed to make a full reversal, tweeting that he's spoken to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (aka, MBS), who allegedly said he had nothing to do with Khashoggi's disappearance.

[URL="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump"]Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump[/URL]

Just spoke to the King of Saudi Arabia who denies any knowledge of whatever may have happened "to our Saudi Arabian citizen." He said that they are working closely with Turkey to find answer. I am immediately sending our Secretary of State to meet with King!
2:37 PM - Oct 15, 2018

Mere hours later, CNN reported that Saudi Arabia is "preparing to admit" that they killed Khashoggi in an interrogation gone wrong.
Still, before being contradicted by this news on Monday, President Trump said after speaking to MBS that it's possible "rogue killers" were responsible for Khashoggi's death. But a 15-member kill-team (including the country's chief medical examiner, equipped with a bone saw) entering a consulate of a country that exercises such surveillance and control over its citizens without the approval of MBS or at least senior members of the royal court seems beyond unlikely.
In trying to signal that he's doing something, the president called for an investigation into Khashoggi's case and will "immediately" (that is, 13 days after the journalist went missing) dispatch Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to the Saudi capital of Riyadh.
If what President Trump is capable let alone willing to do in the face of this horrific incident seems vague, so is the Saudi threat of retaliation. Realistically speaking, Saudi Arabia is not accustomed to being called to the mat by the United States. The U.S. supports its efforts in the war in Yemen, where Saudi-led airstrikes have killed thousands of civilians, including a busload of children in August.
If the images of dead and wounded children didn't garner lasting outrage in the Trump administration, it's hard to imagine how a single by all accounts, horrifically slain journalist might, especially given how the president feels about the press, in general.
What can the U.S. can do?

While sanctions have been mentioned, it's unclear how the Trump administration would levy those without somehow shooting itself in the foot.
The steady of flow of Saudi money into the United States be it via big spending at the president's own DC hotel, or in the $110 billion in arms sales Trump frequently touts (although the number is actually closer to $4 billion), or in investments (Saudi Arabia owns the largest oil refinery in the United States) is enough reason not to levy those sanctions. Just mentioning them sends Saudi stocks plunging, which would be sure to affect investments in the energy sector or even in Hollywood, which was fiercely courting MBS during his visit to the U.S. in March.
Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told ThinkProgress that while the president may be reluctant to hold back on weapons (including the $15 billion in the THAAD missile defense system) Congress has power to delay or even cancel those deals.
"He [President Trump] doesn't want to particularly do anything. It's about Congress, and, to some extent, the media and the policy-framing community insisting, unless the narrative changes in some dramatic way, that the United States register its disapproval in a concrete manner," he added.
Secretary Pompeo might find that diplomacy has little weight with MBS. Saudi Arabia at least appears infamously numb to diplomatic pressure it continues to keep women's rights activists jailed, maintains its brisk pace of executions, and feels it has nothing to answer for in killing thousands of civilians in its airstrikes in Yemen, where its involvement is also pushing millions of people toward famine.
It also carried out a strange "corruption" purge late last year, which looked more like a lucrative shakedown of its own elite, and seemed to have kidnapped the Lebanese prime minister for a few weeks.
Most of the above, though, said Ibish, is "internal stuff," but Khashoggi's case happened in a consulate in Turkey, and involves torture and, therefore, the Vienna Convention.
Also, Khashoggi, whom Ibish knew for more than 15 years, was a U.S. resident and wrote for The Washington Post.
"The U.S. has a real investment here," said Ibish, adding, "This is qualitatively different."
Potential Saudi responses

Saudi Arabia, said Ibish, is now being pulled in two different directions trying to mitigate any potential international fallout from Khashoggi's (almost certain) death, while internally, doubling down on the nationalistic messaging.
"They're really waving the flag, aggressively, in a similar way that they did in the dispute with Canada," said Ibish, referring the the tiff between the two countries when Canada expressed alarm over the jailing of rights activists. Saudi Arabia responded with a huge campaign questioning Canada's human rights records, and pulling thousands of its students out of Canadian universities.
What follows was a "huge pushback" against internal reforms, especially for women's rights, within Saudi Arabia, said Ibish. So, bowing to international pressure would hurt that narrative.
Saudi Arabia has some aces up its sleeve. For one thing, it controls the oil market, where, owing to sanctions against Venezuela and thanks to President Trump's sanctions against Iran, it will be an even larger player come November.
President Trump has already asked oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia to increase output in order to keep gas prices down in the U.S. (where they have been creeping up, posing a threat to GOP control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections).
"The first thing it could do is price oil in something other than dollars, which would screw us up completely. They could drive the price of oil up to $200, $300, $400 a barrel, if they wanted to," said Ibish.
Saudi Arabia knows that if its economy hits the rocks, that shock will send ripples to the U.S., something that could be politically damaging to President Trump.
Saudi's position in the U.S. capital debt market is important: It has been borrowing tens of billions of dollars in recent years and issuing bonds on that debt. U.S. institutional investors (which purchase securities with pooled funds) buy those bonds. Saudi Arabia, in turn, has been buying up U.S. government bonds, making it the 10th largest foreign investor in U.S. government securities.
Most likely outcome

The U.S.-Saudi relationship, said Ibish, is purely "transactional" "there's nothing sentimental or values-driven about it."
And that's the thing about purely transactional relationships, he added, "You can't take anything away from the other side without hurting yourself, because you only gave them X,Y, and Z things in order to get something back. That's true on both sides, here."
Saudi Arabia is the Trump administration's regional check against Iran. It controls the oil market and holds the kind of economic levers that, if pulled, could cause major pain for President Trump and the GOP in the immediate to medium term.
It's not in Saudi Arabia's best interest to rile the United States, which provides it with cover and material help in its fight in Yemen and in its ongoing economic campaign against Qatar (remember the Gulf Crisis? It's still happening). The Trump administration is also Saudi's key Western ally against their mutual bête noire, Iran.
There are, after all, two real powers in that region: Iran and Saudi Arabia. The former does not believe the U.S. is a stabilizing influence in the Middle East, whereas the latter does.
"These countries are stuck with each other," said Ibish. And any Saudi government, and any U.S. administration, regardless of party, would do whatever possible to "put this behind them."
In other words, all of these threats and counter-threats might be nothing more than theater of political acrimony, only serving for each country to give the other cover during this temporary storm before moving on.

Quote:The reported torture, murder, and dismemberment of Washington-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate-general in Istanbul reminded the world that an intense power play is now taking place within the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula and between them.


In November 2017, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) ordered the arrest and detention at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton Hotel of over 200 members of the Saudi royal family, including eleven rival princes, as well as government ministers and influential businessmen. That came after an October 2017 meeting in Riyadh between MBS and Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, conclave that lasted well into the early morning hours. At the meeting, Kushner is said to have turned over to MBS a list of the names of the Crown Prince's opponents: leading figures of the Saudi royal house, government, and major businesses. The list may have also contained the name "Jamal Ahmad Khashoggi."

The list of Saudi names was, reportedly, compiled by Kushner from top secret special code word documents he had specifically requested from the National Security Agency (NSA) and Central Intelligence Agency. The documents were specifically requested by Kushner, not because he was an expert in communications intercepts, but because he likely had a control officer who told him what files to obtain. The Kushner family have longstanding ties to the Israeli Likud Party, as well as the Mossad intelligence service. The Mossad enjoys a close working relationship with the Saudi General Intelligence Directorate, which is now firmly committed to MBS after a previous purge of its upper ranks following MBS's rise to the heir apparent position in the House of Saud.

Those on the list handed over to MBS by Kushner were all subjects of NSA and CIA communications intercepts of phone calls, video conferences, and emails. Kushner is said to have had a phone conversation with MBS a day before Khashoggi was murdered.

Reports from U.S. intelligence sources report that the NSA had intercepted high-level communications between the Saudi government in Riyadh and the Saudi consulate-general in Istanbul indicating that there was a plot afoot to either kidnap Khashoggi and fly him back to Riyadh or murder him on the spot. Kidnapping and detention is definitely part of MBS's playbook as seen with his kidnapping and detention in Riyadh on November 3, 2017 of arriving Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. No sooner had Hariri's plane touched down in Riyadh, was his cell phone confiscated by the Saudis and he was detained. Hariri was forced to resign in a forced statement read by him on a Saudi television network. MBS was hoping to replace Hariri with his older estranged brother, Bahaa Hariri, someone that MBS had in his pocket.

MBS had bragged to close advisers that he also had Jared Kushner "in his pocket." Lebanese President Michel Aoun demanded Hariri's immediate release by the Saudi regime and his return to Beirut. Just as Riyadh denied it had murdered Khashoggi, it refused to admit that it was holding Hariri against his will. MBS ordered Hariri flown to Abu Dhabi to meet with MBS's on-and-off-again ally, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), the heir apparent to the presidency of the United Arab Emirates. At the age of 57, MBZ is not as brash as the young and impetuous MBS. This has been witnessed by MBZ's willingness to work with Jordanian King Abdullah II to seek an accommodation with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. MBS is reportedly furious with MBZ and Abdullah, the latter a member of the Hashemite family, who were ejected from their rule over Mecca and Medina by the British and Sauds, following World War I. Ever since the Hashemites' loss of the Hejaz region of Arabia to the radical Wahhabist Sauds, there has been bad blood between Riyadh and Amman.

MBS is also upset over MBZ's support for rival claimants to power in South Yemen. MBS is supporting the rump Yemeni government, much of it in exile in Saudi Arabia, against the Iranian-supported Houthi government ruling from Sana'a in north Yemen in a bloody and genocidal war being orchestrated by Riyadh, with the support of the Trump administration and the Israeli regime.

The UAE has been supporting the Southern Transition Council (STC), which strives for South Yemen's reversion to an independent state, a status it enjoyed before a forced merger with north Yemen in 1990. Caught in the middle are forces loyal to Sheikh Abdullah bin Issa al Aafrar, the Sultan of the Mahra State, which was disestablished when South Yemen achieved independence in 1967. The Mahra Sultan, who is living in the neighboring Sultanate of Oman, under Sultan Qabus bin Said's protection, is also in the gun sights of MBS, who does not want any competition for Saudi control of all of Yemen.

Oman is reportedly backing the Al-Mahra and Socotra People's General Council, which is composed of the Mahra Sultan and Mahri tribal elders. This rival governing authority wants to be free of any control by the Saudi, Emirati, Houthi, and the pro-Saudi Yemen government. Through the offices of Oman's mission to the United Nations, the General Council has been in direct contact with the UN Security Council. The STC also includes members of the tribes and royal families of other former states of the British colonial era Federation of Arab Emirates of the South and Protectorate of South Arabia. These include the Kathiri State, Sultanate of Lahej, the Qu'aiti State of Hadhramaut, and the Emirates of Dhala and Beihan.

MBS is known to be angling to select the successor to Qabus, who has no children and has been a thorn in Riyadh's side. Under Qabus, Oman has been friendly to Iran and the Assad government in Syria, as well as Qatar, where the 36-year old Emir, Tamim bin Hamad, has infuriated MBS by maintaining relations with Iran. In 2013, Tamim's father, Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, formally abdicated the throne in favor of his son. However, it is well known that Hamad still pulls the strings in Doha. In 1995, Hamad deposed his father, Khalifa BIN Hamad al Thani, who was undergoing medical treatment in Geneva. In 1972, Khalifa ousted his cousin, Ahmad, while he was on a hunting trip in Iran. Ahmad settled in Dubai, where he married the daughter of the Emir of Dubai. MBS and MBZ are anxious to prop up a rival to the current Qatari emir from the ranks of potential claimants to the throne in Doha, including two rival al-Thani clan members who the Saudis have claimed have rightful claims to the Qatari throne - Abdulla bin Ali Al Thani and Sultan bin Suhaim Al Thani.

MBS, along with all the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, have instituted a punishing economic and diplomatic embargo on Qatar. There is some speculation in the Middle East that MBS is quietly backing to succeed Qabus, Taimur bin Assad, the 37-year old son of Qabus's cousin, Said Assad bin Tariq. As the deputy prime minister for international cooperation, Said Assad bin Tariq was designated as the official heir to the ailing Qabus.

In this Arabian "Game of Thrones," MBZ may have his own favorites among other claimants to the sultan's throne in Muscat. These include Said Assad bin Tariq's half-brothers, Haitham bin Tariq, currently the culture minister, and Shihab bin Tariq, a former commander of the Omani navy. MBZ is reportedly running a network of spies within the Omani royal court to influence the succession to Qabus. There is another, non-Arabian prince, who could also have a great deal of influence in the Omani royal succession. He is the Prince of Wales, Charles, the future King of England, who has been a longtime friend and confidante of Sultan Qabus.

Oman and Qatar have their own agents of influence within the royal families of the seven emirates that make up the UAE. In July, Sheikh Rashid bin Hamad al-Sharqi, the second-in-line for the throne in Fujairah, the UAE emirate that borders Oman, turned up in Qatar to ask for asylum. He said that MBZ's government was using extortion to eke out transfers of large sums of cash by Emirati royal families to unknown parties around the world, including those in Ukraine, India, Morocco, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Syria. The UAE, along with the Saudis, are major financial supporters of jihadist elements around the world. Sheikh Rashid has also provided Qatari intelligence with details of discontent among the emirates of the dictatorial policies of MBZ in Abu Dhabi. The other emirs are also critical of the UAE's involvement in the genocidal civil war in Yemen, one in which troops from Fujairah, Umm al Quwain, Ajman, Sharjah, and Ras al Khaimah, are used for cannon fodder, while those from the wealthier Abu Dhabi and Dubai avoid frontline combat.

Recently, the Saudis have pressured their puppet king in Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, to fire his uncle, Prime Minister Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. Prince Khalifa is the world's longest-serving prime minister. However, he has apparently irritated MBS with his work to protect the rights of foreign workers, including those from the Philippines and south Asia, in Bahrain and the wider Gulf region.

MBS and Kushner are known to view Iran as the chief threat to peace in the Middle East. MBZ shares in their view of Iran, something that is, apparently, not shared by the emirates of the northern Gulf region, including Fujairah. From their actions, MBS and MBZ are, along with their Israeli and American allies, the major threat to peace in the region. The assassination of a journalist resident in the United States in a third country, Turkey, and the kidnapping and house arrest of a sitting prime minister of another nation is unprecedented behavior in the Middle East. The Saudis are only matched by Israel in their total disregard for international norms of behavior in the Middle Eastern region as they and their cohorts engage in their bloody "Game of Thrones."