Magda Hassan Wrote:Yes, and most importantly they are arming them with anti aircraft missiles.....

Quote:Without question, Russia's intervention in Syria changed the dynamic of the country's civil war. It boosted Assad's position from a probable loss to more of a stalemate, with the potential for the conflict to turn in his favor. This report gauges how by what means and to what extent the Russian intervention changed the course of the Syrian civil war. It aims to address yet unanswered questions, such as: Are the gains made sustainable or do they need to be consolidated? Will the Russian "withdrawal" actually manifest in a reduction of operations over the coming months?

The information, data and maps are almost exclusively drawn from AssetSource's daily coverage of Syria. Since the beginning of the Russian intervention, AssetSource expanded the scope of its reporting to include play-by-play coverage of Syria. Every day, Levantine Group analysts track and compile data on the Syrian civil war, from strategic shifts to more tactical incidents. Some of these reports are available on our website: http://www.levantinegroup.com/#!levantine-blog/ch2w.

Quote:

The imminent return of Russian planes to Syria

by Valentin Vasilescu

Although Russia had decided to withdraw its bombers from Syria after the ceasefire concluded with the United States, it is now obliged to return to the battlefield, because Washington - in violation of its engagements has continued to deliver sophisticated weapons to the jihadists, including Al-Qaïda and Daesh. The aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov should be deployed in July.

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | BUCHAREST (ROMANIA) | 16 MAY 2016 FRANÇAIS TÜRKÇE ESPAÑOL DEUTSCH РУССКИЙ

Although Russia does not possess fifth generation warplanes, its bombers were particularly effective during their six-month campaign in Syria.However, after Russia and the United States agreed to a ceasefire from the 27th February 2016, President Vladimir Putin ordered the withdrawal of forty-six of the fifty-four or fifty-six Su-24, Su-25, Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 deployed at the Khmeimim airbase. The withdrawal was ill-advised. Indeed, in violation of their engagements, the United States have continued to deliver sophisticated weaponry to the jihadists, including combatants from Al-Qaeda and Daesh [1]. As a result, after the liberation of Palmyra, the Syrian Arab Army was unable to pursue its offensive against the Islamic State in Al-Raqqah and Deir ez-Zor [2], and suffered heavy losses in fighting against the Al-Nusra Front (a branch of Al-Qaïda in Syria) in the region of Aleppo.Besides that, in the space of one month, the Syrian aviation lost three combat planes (MiG-21, MiG-23 and Su-22), shot down in the north of Syria by Islamists using portable ground-to-air missile-launchers which had been introduced into the country in large quantities after the effective date of the ceasefire. This is why the Syrian Air Force does not attack more than 10 Islamist targets per day, which is insufficient when dealing with ground troops. The Syrian Arab Army finds itself in a delicate situation, and yet the Russian Army was constrained by the order from President Putin to withdraw the bombers from Syria, for budgetary and economic reasons. In addition, it seems that the proposition by the Commander of the Russian Air Forces, General Viktor Bondarev - to test the new Yak-130 light attack/training fighters in Syria on ground attack missions - has not been accepted by the Kremlin [3].The only option which has met with approval is the deployment of the aircraft-carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in the Mediterraean, near the Syrian coast. The problem is that this aircraft-carrier entered a phase of repair and modernisation in 2015, in the Sevmash shipyards at Severodvinsk, and was scheduled to return to active duty only at the end of 2016. The modernisation involves adapting the aircraft-carrier to make it capable of functioning with the new MiG-29 K/KUB, instead of the old Su-33. The carrier pilots trained last year with the MiG-29 K/KUB for take-off and landing on specially-built strips (Nitka) which reproduce the decks of the aircraft-carrier, at Saki (Yevpatoriya vestul Crimeii) and Yeisk (on the coast of the Sea of Azov).The aircraft-carrier Admiral Kuznetsov (Projet 1143) is driven by gas turbines, has a displacement of 65,000 tonnes, and was launched in December 1990 at naval shipyard n° 444 South at Nikolaev, which was then in the Soviet Republic of Ukraine. It was built to carry between 52 to 55 planes and helicopters. The Admiral Kuznetsov is armed with eight AK-630-type AA artillery systems (2x30mm), eighteen 3K95 Kinzhal-type AA missile launchers, twelve ship-to-ship P-700 Granit missile launchers (range of 620 km, speed Mach 2,5) and two UDAW-1 anti-submarine missile launchers.The Minister of Defence for the Russian Federation has declared that the completion of repairs for the aircraft-carrier has been advanced to the 1st July 2016. This is why it will not carry only MiG-29 K/KUB, but will also keep some Su-33. Its new configuration will include twelve Su-33 multi-role aircraft, twenty-eight multi-role MiG 29 K/KUB, four Su-25UTG/UBP training and ground attack planes, and eight Ka-27 anti-submarine combat helicopters.The Su-33 and MiG-29 K/KUB taking off from the aircraft-carrier will only be armed with 30% to 40% of their potential maximum load of arms and fuel (6-9 tonnes). However, this restriction will not prevent them from having the same effect on their targets as the Su-24 and Su-34 bombers which operated in Syria. The Su-24 and Su-34 were each armed with two 250 kg KAB-250 S/LG bombs or two 500 kg KAB-500 L/Kr or KAB-1500 L/Kr bombs, all guided by laser, camera or GPS, or two Kh-29 L/T and Kh-25T-type air-ground missiles, guided by laser or camera. Conceived for hunting missions, the Su-33 and MiG-29 K/KUB will also carry short and medium-range air-air missiles.The small Russian aircraft-carrier is enough to damage the jihadists operating in Syria, who would be unable to fight back, and would have the same effect as one of the 11 nuclear-powered US aircraft-carriers which have a displacement of more than 100,000 tonnes, with more than seventy-eight planes on board (F/A-18E/F, EA-18G, E-2), and twelve SH-60F helicopters. The Admiral Kuznetsov is not the only aircraft-carrier which can operate with the MiG-29 K/KUB. The old Russian aircraft-carrier Admiral Gorskov, with a displacement of 43,000 tonnes, was rebuilt and modernised in the shipyards of Severodvinsk, and was endowed to the Indian Navy in 2014 under the name of Vikramaditya. It carries only thirty-six planes twenty-six 26 MiG-29 K/KUB and ten Kamov Ka-28/31 helicopters.

Valentin Vasilescu

Translation
Pete Kimberley

] ] &notes=Although%20Russia%20had%20decided%20to%20withdraw%20its%20bombers%20from%20Syria%20after%20the%20ceasefire%20concluded%20with%20the%20United%20States,%20it%20is%20now%20obliged%20to%20return%20to%20the%20battlefield,%20because%20Washington%20-%20in%20violation%20of%20its%20engagements%20%E2%80%93%20has%20continued%20to%20deliver%20sophisticated%20weapons%20to%20the%20jihadists,%20including%20Al-Qa%C3%AFda%20and%20Daesh.%20The%20aircraft%20carrier%20Admiral%20Kuznetsov%20should%20be%20deployed%20in%20July.] ]


[1] « Les États-Unis violent le cessez-le-feu en Syrie et arment Al-Qaïda », Réseau Voltaire, April 25th, 2016. « Qui arme les jihadistes durant le cessez-le-feu ? » (Vidéo), par Thierry Meyssan, Télévision nationale syrienne , Réseau Voltaire, April 30th, 2016.[2] «Les opérations de l'armée arabe syrienne après la libération de Palmyre», Valentin Vasilecu, Traduction Avic, Réseau international, April 3rd, 2016.[3] «Des avions YAK-130 russes en Syrie ?», Valentin Vasilecu, Traduction Avic, Réseau international, April 21st, 2016.

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The US is violating the cease-fire in Syria and arming Al Qaeda

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | APRIL 25, 2016 ESPAÑOL ITALIANO DEUTSCH عربي PORTUGUÊS TÜRKÇE

On 7 April 2016, Jane's revealed that the US Navy Military Sealift Command launched in 2015, two tenders for transporting the Romanian port of Constanta weapons to the Jordanian port of Aqaba [ 1 ].Weapons that could be identified were manufactured in Bulgaria, which confirms the previous survey of Balkan Investigative Reporting Network [ 2 ] and our [ 3 ].The tender was won by Transatlantic Lines and cargo carried by the Geysir (IMO: 7710733).The first shipment left Romania December 5, 2015 and was delivered to half TaÅŸucu (Turkey), and half to Aqaba (Jordan). It comprised a total of 117 containers for 2007 tonnes. Either in addition Kalashnikovs and machine guns, some 50 missile Faktoria, between 796 and 854 missiles and 162 tons of explosives.The choice of Faktoria anti-tank missiles can be explained by their similarity to those used by the Syrian Arab Army, the 9K111 Fagots ATGW they are an improved version, so that one can accuse it of various crimes she did not commit.We just learned that the second delivery, which was more important than the first, left Romania March 28, 2016 and was delivered on April 7, that is to say the day of the publication of the article Jane's.Therefore, the United States themselves have violated the cessation of hostilities signed on February 12, 2016. They took advantage of the naivety of Russia and Syria to rearm jihadist groups, just as they had done early 2012 during the observation Mission of the Arab League, and during the UN.The weapons were handed over by the Pentagon, either directly or via the Turkish army to qualified groups of "moderate", that is to say simultaneously participating in the Geneva peace talks.According to observers on the ground, including those opposed to the Syrian Arab Republic, the groups that coordinate the battle with Al Qaeda, routinely recovering half the weapons they receive international terrorist organization. They are therefore well mainly the United States arming Al Qaeda, just as it is the US that mainly armed Daesh, particularly in 2014, organizing "abandonment" of weapons they had to deliver Iraqi Army.



[ 1 ] " US arms shipment to Syrian rebels detailed " Jeremy Binnie & Neil Gibson, Jane's, April 7th, 2016.[ 2 ] " War Earnings: Bulgarian Arms Add Fuel to Middle East Conflicts ", Maria Petkova, Balkan Investigative Reporting Network,December 21, 2015.[ 3 ] " How Bulgaria has provided drugs and weapons to Al Qaeda and Daesh ", by Thierry Meyssan, Voltaire Network, January 4, 2016.


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Quote:

German, French special forces in Syria an aggression'

By Jim W. Dean, Managing Editor on June 15, 2016

[email=?subject=Veterans%20Today%20%3A%20German%2C%20French%20special%20forces%20in%20Syria%20%27an%20aggression%27&body=I%20recommend%20this%20page%3A%20German%2C%20French%20special%20forces%20in%20Syria%20%27an%20aggression%27.%0AYou%20can%20read%20it%20on%3A%20http%3A%2F%2Fwww.veteranstoday.com%2F2016%2F06%2F15%2Fgerman-french-special-forces-in-syria-an-aggression%2F]

[/email]

…from Press TV, TehranThe who's who Special Ops musical chairs game continues to be played in Syria

[ Editor's Note: This story is an old and new one at the same time. The reports of US and British Special Ops in Syria have been around for some time, but the French and German, less so.
As a general rule of thumb, the former colonial operatives are always on the ground in conflict areas where they have an interest, and don't worry much about having an invitation.
The Germans have denied that their people are there, but such denials are routine, because, as member states of the UN, such actions violate several international agreements. The UN tends to not make a big issue over it, as it just advertises what a duck blind the UN can be for member states picking and choosing which agreement they will abide by.
Clandestine Special Ops people are initially engaged in intelligence collection, the boots on the ground kind to keep their host countries aware of the true situation on the ground. Where you have a myriad of factions fighting, it is hard to evaluate a coherent policy when what is really going on is a guessing game.

How many laws and international agreements are broken by these deployments?

The next step is to move into funding, supplies and training, but to avoid engaging in combat, as that triggers compliance with the various Special Ops country's domestic laws on notification to Congress or their Parliaments, respectively.
This is even more complicated when you have the CIA running parallel and overlapping operations using contractors, designed to escape Congressional oversight.
All of this gives the perpetrators a "screw you, Mr. Assad", boots on the ground reality that "we are here, to hell with the rules, and what are you are anyone going to do about it?"
The problem there is that, if it is OK for the former colonialists to do this, then figuratively it is OK for other parties to do so, and confirms what we know to be a US coalition, Gulf State, Turkish and Israeli assault on a fellow UN-member country, an illegality that runs off the charts.
That puts Syria on the spot to release the proof that it has, communications intercepts or even that it is holding prisoners. VT has already published articles on the Turkish and Gulf State prisoners Syria has captured in uniform. Syria cannot continue to bring this issue up, while holding back on whatever proof it has, or it will continue to be ignored… Jim W. Dean ]

__________The Western Special Ops people have been primarily active in the Syrian Kurdish areas

First published … June 15, 2016

The Syrian government says French and German forces are present in northern Syria, condemning it as an act of "aggression." The Syrian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday French and German forces are deployed to Ain al-Arab, also known as Kobani, and Manbij alongside US military personnel.
"Syria … considers it explicit and unjustified aggression towards its sovereignty and independence," the official SANA news agency quoted the ministry as saying.
Foreign forces are aiding Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) near Manbij and Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, part of the SDF, in Ain al-Arab, characterizing the aid as part of an offensive against Daesh.
The ministry said any side "wishing to fight against terrorists must coordinate its moves with the legitimate Syrian government, whose army and people are fighting terrorism" across the country.
"Such presence under the pretext of fighting terrorism cannot elude any one," it added.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said French special forces were building a base for themselves near Ain al-Arab.
France's defense minister said last week that there were also special forces operating in Syria helping the SDF advance towards Manbij. Berlin, however, was quick to deny the presence of German special forces in Syria.
"There are no German special forces in Syria. The accusation is false," a spokesman at the Germany's Defense Ministry said.
The Observatory, however, said German, French and American military advisers, and French and American special forces, were assisting the SDF. Their presence has raised growing suspicion that the US and Europe are assisting a Kurdish campaign to establish a separate state in Syria.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said Turkey would not allow cooperation with terrorist organizations in Syria, referring to Kurdish groups which the US supports. Ankara and Washington have long been at loggerheads over the role of the US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia.
Turkey says the fighters are a terrorist organization affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) but the US sees them as a partner in Syria operations. In a speech to his ruling AK Party in parliament, Yildirim said Turkey won't allow formation of new states in Syria.
Syria is currently fighting foreign-backed militants such as Daesh and al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front on several fronts, including in Aleppo which borders Turkey.
On Wednesday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said fierce battles between government forces and Takfiri terrorists in Aleppo had left 70 fatalities in less than 24 hours.
The monitor said Syrian forces retook the villages of Zaytan and Khalasa to the southwest of the Aleppo city after losing control of them hours earlier.
The area overlooks the government supply road around the south of Aleppo, linking government-held Nayrab airport to the city's southeast and areas controlled by government forces to its west.
The Syrian daily al-Watan said Russian fighter jets resumed their missions in Aleppo, targeting positions of al-Nusra Front and allied forces on Wednesday.
Moscow launched airstrikes against Daesh and other terrorist groups in Syria on September 30 upon a request from the Damascus government.

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Battle for Aleppo the End of Erdogan's Ottoman Dream in Syria by Catherine Shakdam

Posted By Team on May 21, 2016

THE REAL BATTLE FOR SYRIA IS BEING PLAYED OUT IN THE NORTHERN CITY OF ALEPPO, WHERE TURKEY DARED DREAM IT WOULD REVIVE ITS EMPIRE OF OLD.Forget Damascus and forget President Bashar al-Assad's seat of power the real battle for Syria is being played out in the northern city of Aleppo, where Turkey dared dream it would revive its empire of old. Ankara here is in for a rude awakening!So rude in fact that Turkish President Recep Erdogan is contemplating a military incursion into Syria a move fraught with dangers, as it could potentially send Turkey to a collision course with not just Damascus, but two military superpowers; Iran and Russia. Needless to say that while both Moscow and Tehran have exercised restraint and measure when dealing with Ankara's political folly, for the sake of regional stability; a direct military move against Syria would likely send ripples across the region that no amount of diplomacy will quiet.Turkey, of course, argues that its position is legitimate and true … how could it not, when Turkey has proven such a true NATO ally, such a bulwark against terror? President Erdogan's main line of defence or rather, an attack is that he needs to absolutely protect Turkey's national sovereignty against dangerous radical militants. Turkey's right to self-defence is so imperious in fact, that its expression justifies its trampling over the territorial integrity of another sovereign nation: Syria.In this exceptional narrative Syria has been relegated to a military theatre where nation-states have come to play war, and empire-building. Syria, Mr Erdogan has implied, stands but a dwarf before Turkey's political and military needs … who cares for international law when one towers a strategic chokepoint in between the EU and a flood of migrants?Who will speak against Turkey now that its will has been left unchecked, and has stood unchallenged … may I dare say rogue … for such a long time. What I'm really asking is how do you put THAT genie back in its bottle? From the looks of it, President Erdogan has no intention on slowing down his neo-imperial horses. If anything he's quite determined to see his ambitions through … to the bitter end if needs to be, atop a ravaged nation most likely.

But if Turkey is acting a rogue state at a time when even Washington is waking up to Russia's logic in Syria, President Erdogan is not without a tuned up rationale. "Tens of thousands of lives have been saved and a million people have received aid, thanks to Syria ceasefire established with Russia's help," US Secretary of State John Kerry said this May in what can only be described as a political volte face.

Ever the keen strategist, Erdogan is holding a mirror to America's exceptionalism, playing the world's public to the same counter-terrorism tune, and identical military beat a grand neocon after his own masters."Turkey is prepared to take unilateral actions against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria to protect its southern border town Kilis from IS attacks, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan," Xinhua news agency reported him as saying on May 12. "We are making necessary preparations in order to clear the other side of the border," he said.To which he added: "Turkey will not wait… while we have martyrs every day …I'd like to say that we will not hesitate to take unilateral steps on this issue …The issue of Kilis would be "litmus paper" for revealing the sincerity of coalition partners in the fight against the IS group.If you missed it, there is more than just a veiled threat hiding in President Erdogan's comments minus, of course, the sheer hypocrisy of his sudden concern for human life. Ankara shed little tears when it negotiated the lives … and deaths of war refugees with European capitals. Ankara then cared little for innocent lives … civilian lives. Life for Mr Erdogan only matters when it can be held a weapon in his enemies' face.

The "Sultan" is really sending a warning to the NATO, and his European neighbours stand down as I lay waste Syria's resistance or face to the migration flood I will unleash onto your cities. Of course, there is always the possibility that ISIL elements could permeate through Europe's intelligence armour … and then what? Considering that Ankara has acted a patron, and a profiteer of terror to assert its geopolitical ambitions in the Middle East, Turkey is well positioned to act a grand threat against the Old Continent. The fact that most EU governments have failed to understand such reality is rather concerning.

Turkey long abandoned its political neutrality to the clamour of wars … how much time will elapse before Turkey becomes a global threat?Erdogan complained that the US-led anti-ISIL coalition has not provided Turkey with the desired support, reported Xinhua news agency. Support against what exactly no one seems quite sure since Ankara's only woes have been against those factions which have actively sought to destroy terror: i.e. the Kurds.I will grant you that ISIL has in fact challenged Turkey in the province of Kilis, and that as such on paper at least Ankara could argue the need to defend itself. But then again giving Erdogan's history with ISIL one could argue the wannabe Sultan is self-harming to better sell his people, and the world, the war he always wanted in Syria.It could also well be that Erdogan a modern-day political Prometheus, burnt himself to the fire he unleashed onto Syria. Lost in his Ottomanesque ambitions Erdogan could soon find himself very much alone as he faces to the radical hounds he helped trained, armed and fund to depose the one man, who now could hold the key to Turkey's salvation: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Quote:

Erdogan sends Putin first letter' since Su-24 shot down by Turkey

Published time: 14 Jun, 2016 17:47

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Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) talks with Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. © Osman Orsal / Reuters


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The Turkish president has sent a letter to Vladimir Putin congratulating him on Russia's National Day. The Kremlin has confirmed receiving what is said to be the first letter from Ankara since a Russian bomber was downed by a Turkish jet in November 2015.
"The letter came through the Foreign Ministry channels," Sputnik cited Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying.
In his letter, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed hope that relations between the two countries would return to their previously strong level.
Read more
I have difficulty understanding it': Erdogan wants to mend ties with Russia, but doesn't know how
"Dear Mr. President. On behalf of the Turkish people, I congratulate all Russians on Russia Day, and hope that the relations between Russia and Turkey will rise to the deserved level," the letter said.
This is the first such letter by Erdogan, according to TASS. Previously, the Turkish leader addressed only the Russian people in general, as was the case, for instance, when offering condolences when a flight from Dubai to Rostov-on-Don crashed.
In a separate note, Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim wrote to his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev that "in the near future, cooperation and relations between the two countries will reach a level that is essential for the common interests of our peoples."
Moscow-Ankara ties plunged to an unprecedentedly low level after a Turkish F-16 fighter destroyed a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 bomber engaging Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) positions in northern Syria in 2015. One of the Russian pilots was killed on the ground by a militia group, although the other pilot was evacuated.
The Turkish leadership has refused to apologize or offer condolences for the incident. Moscow retaliated by prohibiting Russian businesses from hiring Turkish citizens. Russia then cancelled all charter flights to Turkey, stripping the country of income from thousands of Russian tourists. In addition, Moscow banned practically all food imports from Turkey, primarily fruits and vegetables, along with most poultry products.
On June 1, Kremlin spokesman Peskov reiterated the conditions voiced by Russian President Vladimir Putin in May, saying that Moscow expects Ankara to deliver apologies and financial compensation for the downed Su-24.

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The Slow Death of the Syria Cease-Fire Brings a Hybrid War With Russia Closer

06/20/2016 12:09 pm ET | Updated 14 hours ago

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Alastair CrookeFmr. MI-6 agent; Author, Resistance: The Essence of Islamic Revolution'

ASSOCIATED PRESS

BEIRUT Gradually, the mist of ambiguity and confusion hanging over Syria is lifting a little. The landscape is sharpening into focus. With this improved visibility, we can view a little more clearly the course of action being prepared by Iran, Russia and the Syrian government.

Russia is emerging from an internal debate over whether the U.S. is truly interested in an entente or only in bloodying Russia's nose. And what do we see? Skepticism. Russia is skeptical that NATO's new missile shield in Poland and Romania, plus military exercises right up near its border, are purely defensive actions.

Iran, meanwhile, is studying the entrails of the nuclear agreement. As one well-informed commentator put it to me, Iran is "coldly lethal" at the gloating in the U.S. at having "put one over" Iran. Because, while Iran has duly taken actions that preclude it from weaponizing its nuclear program, it will not now gain the financial normalization that it had expected under the agreement.

What do we see? Skepticism.

It's not a question of slow implementation I've heard directly from banks in Europe that they've been visited by U.S. Treasury officials and warned in clear terms that any substantive trade cooperation with Iran is closed off. Iran is not being integrated into the financial system. U.S. sanctions remain in place, the Europeans have been told, and the U.S. will implement fines against those who contravene these sanctions. Financial institutions are fearful, particularly given the size of the fines that have been imposed almost $9 billion for the French bank BNP a year ago.

In principle, sanctions have been lifted. But in practice, even though its sales of crude are reaching pre-sanctions levels, Iran has found that, financially, it remains substantially hobbled. America apparently achieved a double success: It circumscribed Iran's nuclear program, and the U.S. Treasury has hollowed out the nuclear agreement's financial quid pro quo, thus limiting Iran's potential financial empowerment, which America's Gulf allies so feared.


French president Francois Hollande welcomes Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Paris on Jan. 28. (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)
Some Iranian leaders feel cheated; some are livid. Others simply opine that the U.S. should never have been trusted in the first place.

And Damascus? It never believed that the recent cease-fire would be a genuine cessation of hostilities, and many ordinary Syrians now concur with their government, seeing it as just another American ruse. They are urging their government to get on with it to liberate Aleppo. "Just do it" is the message for the Syrian government that I've heard on the streets. A sense of the West being deceitful is exacerbated by reports of American, German, French and possibly Belgian special forces establishing themselves in northern Syria.

Some Iranian leaders say that the U.S. should never have been trusted in the first place.

All this infringement of Syrian sovereignty does not really seem temporary but rather the opposite: there are shades of Afghanistan, with all the "temporary" NATO bases. In any case, it is no exaggeration to say that skepticism about Western motives is in the air especially after Ashton Carter, the U.S. defense secretary, raised the possibility of NATO entering the fray.

As Pat Lang, a former U.S. defense intelligence officer, wrote last week:

The Russians evidently thought they could make an honest deal with [U.S. Secretary of State John] Kerry [and President] Obama. Well, they were wrong. The U.S. supported jihadis associated with [Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda's Syria wing] ... merely pocketed' the truce as an opportunity to re-fit, re-supply and re-position forces. The U.S. must have been complicit in this ruse. Perhaps the Russians have learned from this experience.

Lang goes on to note that during the "truce," "the Turks, presumably with the agreement of the U.S., brought 6,000 men north out of [Syria via the] Turkish border ... They trucked them around, and brought them through Hatay Province in Turkey to be sent back into Aleppo Province and to the city of Aleppo itself." Reports in Russian media indicate that Nusra jihadists, who have continued to shell Syrian government forces during the "truce," are being commanded directly by Turkish military advisers. And meanwhile, the U.S. supplied the opposition with about 3,000 tons of weapons during the cease-fire, according to I.H.S. Jane's, a security research firm.


Syrians carry a wounded man after airstrikes on opposition-controlled areas in Aleppo on June 5. (Beha El-Halebi/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
In brief, the cease-fire has failed. It was not observed. The U.S. made no real effortto separate the moderates from Nusra around Aleppo (as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has affirmed). Instead, the U.S. reportedly sought Nusra's exemption from any Russian or Syrian attack. It reminds one of that old joke: "Oh Lord, preserve me from sin but not just yet!" Or in other words, "preserve us from these dreadful jihadist terrorists, but not just yet, for Nusra is too useful a tool to lose."

The cease-fire did not hasten any political solution, and Russia's allies Iran and Hezbollah have already paid and will continue to pay a heavy price in terms of casualties for halting their momentum toward Aleppo. The opposition now has renewed vigor and weapons.

It is hard to see the cease-fire holding value for Moscow much longer. The original Russian intention was to try to compel American cooperation, firstly in the war against jihadism and, more generally, to compel the U.S. and Europe to acknowledge that their own security interests intersect directly with those of Moscow and that this intersection plainly calls for partnership rather than confrontation.

The opposition now has renewed vigor and weapons.

The present situation in Syria neither facilitates this bigger objective nor the secondary one of defeating radical jihadism. Rather, it has led to calls in Russia for a less conciliatory approach to the U.S. and for the Kremlin to acknowledge that far from preparing for partnership, NATO is gearing up for a hybrid war against Russia.

It is also hard to see the cease-fire holding any continuing value for Tehran either. While the Iran nuclear agreement seemed to hold out the promise of bringing Iran back into the global financial system, such expectations seem now to be withering on the vine. As a result, Iran is likely to feel released from self-imposed limitations of their engagement in Syria and in other parts of the Middle East. Damascus, meanwhile, only very reluctantly agreed to leave its citizens in Aleppo in some semi-frozen limbo. Iran and Hezbollah were equally dubious.


Syrian fighters near the wreckage of a government warplane reportedly shot down by the Nusra front on April 5, (OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP/Getty Images)
All this suggests renewed military escalation this summer. Russian President Vladimir Putin will probably not wish to act before the European summit at the end of June. And neither would he wish Russia to figure largely as an issue in the U.S. presidential election. Yet he cannot ignore the pressures from those within Russia who insist that America is planning a hybrid war for which Russia is unprepared.

The Russia commentator Eric Zuesse encapsulated some of these concerns, writing that "actions speak louder than words." Earlier this month, he notes, the U.S. refused to discuss with Russia its missile defense program:

Russia's concern is that, if the Ballistic Missile Defense' or Anti Ballistic Missile' system, that the U.S. is now just starting to install on and near Russia's borders, works, then the U.S. will be able to launch a surprise nuclear attack against Russia, and this system, which has been in development for decades and is technically called the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System,' will annihilate the missiles that Russia launches in retaliation, which will then leave the Russian population with no retaliation at all.

Zuesse goes on to argue that the U.S. seems to be pursuing a new nuclear strategy, one that was put forward in 2006 in a Foreign Affairs article headlined "The Rise of Nuclear Primacy," and scrapping the earlier policy of "mutually assured destruction." The new strategy, Zuesse writes, argues "for a much bolder U.S. strategic policy against Russia, based upon what it argued was America's technological superiority against Russia's weaponry and a possibly limited time-window in which to take advantage of it before Russia catches up and the opportunity to do so is gone."


Putin, Lavrov and Kerry attend a meeting about the Syrian war at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia Dec. 15, 2015. (REUTERS/ Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/Kremlin)
So, what is going on here? Does the U.S. administration not see that pulling Russia into a debilitating Syrian quagmire by playing clever with a cease-fire that allows the insurgency to get the wind back in its sails is almost certain to lead to Russia and Iran increasing their military engagement? There is talk both in Russia and Iran of the need for a military surge to try to break the back of the conflict. Does the U.S. see that ultimately such a strategy might further entangle it just as much as Russia and Iran in the conflict? Does it understand Saudi Arabia's intent to double down in Syria and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political interest in continuing the Syrian crisis? Does it judge these very real dangers accurately?

No, I think not: the political calculus is different. More likely, the explanation relates to the presidential election campaign in the U.S. The Democratic Party, in brief, is striving to steal the Republican Party's clothes. The latter holds the mantle of being credited as the safer pair of hands of the two, as far as America's security is concerned. This has been a longstanding potential weakness for the Democrats, only too readily exploited by its electoral opponents. Now, perhaps the opportunity is there to steal this mantle from the Republicans.

The Democratic Party is striving to steal the Republican Party's clothes.

All this hawkishness the American shrug of the shoulders at making Iran feel cheated over the nuclear agreement; at Russia, Iran and Damascus seething that the Syria cease-fire was no more than a clever trap to halt their military momentum; at the psychological impact of NATO exercising on Russia's borders; at the possible consequences to Obama's refusal to discuss the ballistic defense system all this is more likely about showing Democrat toughness and savvy in contrast to Donald Trump.

In short, the Democrats see the opportunity to cast themselves as tough and reliable and to transform foreign policy into an asset rather than their Achilles' heel.

But if all this bullheadedness is nothing more than the Democratic Party espying an apparent weakness in the Trump campaign, is this foreign policy posturing meaningful? The answer is that it is not meaningless; it carries grave risks. Ostensibly this posture may appear clever in a domestic campaigning context, where Russia is widely viewed in a negative light. But externally, if the Syrian cease-fire comes to be viewed as nothing more than a cynical ploy by the U.S. to drag Russia deeper into the Syrian quagmire in order to cut Putin down to size, then what will likely follow is escalation. Hot months ahead in Syria. Russia will gradually reenter the conflict, and Iran and Iraq will likely increase their involvement as well.

Firefighters try to extinguish a fire after airstrikes in Idlib, Syria on June 12. (Abdurrahman Sayid/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
There are those in the U.S., Turkey and the Gulf who would welcome such a heightened crisis, hoping that it would become so compellingly serious that no incoming U.S. president, of either hue, could avoid the call to do something upon taking office. In this way, the U.S. could find itself dragged into the maw of another unwinnable Middle Eastern war.

We should try to understand the wider dangers better, too. Baiting Russia, under the problematic rubric of countering Russian "aggression," is very much in fashion now. But in Russia, there is an influential and substantial faction that has come to believe that the West is planning a devastating hybrid military and economic war against it. If this is not so, why is the West so intent on pushing Russia tight up into a corner? Simply to teach it deference? Psychologists warn us against such strategies, and Russia finally is reconfiguring its army (and more hesitantly, its economy) precisely to fight for its corner.

The U.S. could find itself dragged into the maw of another unwinnable Middle Eastern war.

As another noted Russia commentator, John Helmer, noted on his blog on May 30, the new NATO missile installations in Eastern Europe "are hostile acts, just short of casus belli a cause of war." According to Reuters, Putin warned that Romania might soon "be in the cross hairs" the new NATO missile installations there will force Russia "to carry out certain measures to ensure our security."

"It will be the same case with Poland," Putin added.

Did you hear that sound? That was the ratchet of war, which has just clicked up a slot or two.