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+--- Thread: A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria (/thread-6670.html)
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - David Guyatt - 09-08-2016
Drew Phipps Wrote:I've never seen the blue fire explosion in that first video. I wonder what caused that. You can see a blue glow in a highly heated sulfuric gas environement, like that blue volcano, but that's a first as an explosion for me.
The second video looks more like a conventional bomb. A "mushroom shaped cloud" is present after any mostly spherical explosion, as the sphere of hot air rises. I've seen it with firecrackers. That shape of smoke doesn't make the explosion a nuke.
Neither of those explosions has the intense flash of "Teller Light" characteristic of atomic explosions.
Yep, I also sensed that was the case when I first saw the 2nd clip some time back, but on reflection and with the IAEA guy's statements contained in the linked Global Research article, plus the statement that use of mini-nukes is on the agenda, it's possible that one was used.
I have no idea how much of an intense flash would be observable from a subterranean mini-nuke explosion. I also have no idea how far the technology has come from the early days and if a Teller light flash characteristic remains a necessary element. Hence I'm inclined to defer to the IAEA guy's thoughts on the subject and at least entertain the prospect. But I agree it remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, Clinton's likely choice as SecDef, Michele Flournoy, seeks to exercise greater direct US military use in Syria to remove Assad (HERE) even if that means coming up against the Russians who are committed to supporting him. Flournoy says she would use stand off weapons to "retaliate" against and "destroy" Russian proxy forces bombing the *folks* (sic) we support. The problem here is that it is largely the Russians who are bombing those *folks*. And this leads to the question whether the Russian will simply sit back and permit this to happen, given all the investment they have made in Syria in the last year. It would be tremendous climb down for them and hugely damaging to their credibility - so don't expect it to happen, I say.
Allow me to add that statements like this will be seen in Moscow as an escalation and plans made accordingly. Russia has already said it will use nuclear weapons to defend Syria (HERE) from Turkey or Saudi and also dropped the hint two months earlier that he "hopes" nuclear weapons will not be needed to defeat ISIS (HERE).
Deja vu 13 days and the Cuban missile crisis?
Escalation anyone?
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Drew Phipps - 09-08-2016
This article says that Teller light and other "light fluorescence" (which I think means that the air itself begins to emit the visible and ultraviolet light) is caused by all atomic explosions and is a result of x-rays, gamma rays, and beta particles interacting with air, which would indicate a bright light from any atomic explosion; save, I guess, a completely contained underground blast. However, I would suppose, without knowing more, that a "bunker-buster" type bomb would leave a hole through which it penetrated to reach the blast site, which I am supposing would at least show up as a "searchlight" or a "flashlight" type of visual effect. However, the "Teller light" that I mentioned above (which is to me the most commonly known characteristic of an atomic or nuclear blast) is but one form of light fluorescence, so might not be always present.
http://www.abomb1.org/nukeffct/enw77b3.html
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Cliff Varnell - 09-08-2016
Terrific discussion, David. Highly enjoyable. The occasional snark aside, I have great respect for you, Paul and Magda.
Back to red
David Guyatt Wrote:Yes, the Soviet's allowed the reunification of the two Germany's.
More like the Soviets negotiated the terms of their surrender in East Germany.
What other choice did they have?
Invade Poland, East Germany, Slovakia and the Czech Republic?
What leverage did Gorbachev enjoy while the Eastern Bloc was disintegrating?
Cliff, go ahead and read the history which is available with some diligent Googling. Fundamentally, this agreement revolved around the Four Powers Agreement in Germany.
Quote:However, according to that article: "No formal deal was struck, but from all the evidence, the quid pro quo was clear: Gorbachev acceded to Germany's western alignment and the U.S. would limit NATO's expansion."
Yes, according to that article (there are a number of others out there that will take some tracking down - I didn't have the time to do that), but there were records kept of the meeting and Americans present other than Baker who have gone on the record to confirm that this agreement was reached. And then trashed by president Bush upon Baker's return. Thereafter Baker and Genscher pretended no agreement had been reached and lied their heads off.
Quote:Gorbachev was negotiating from a position of weakness and Bush & Co. stabbed him in the back.
You don't go cap in hand to Moscow to plead with the Soviet leader if he has no cards to play. He remained a signatory to the Four Powers Agreement and back in 1990 the US still cared a little about such things.
Quote:First of all, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact was a fait accompli
No, actually it wasn't.
Quote:James Baker never agreed to dissolve NATO - just promised not to move East.
Agreed. But the alliance had lost its meaning with the end of the Warsaw Pact --- but it was re-tasked to be the military alliance of the new global empire that began forming around the Wolfowitz Doctrine.
On China you may wish to read about the Pivot to Asia (HERE), although there has been a great deal written about it elsewhere - but I'm just too lazy to search for all the links. Pepe Escobar's articles are probably as good a starting point as any.
Quote:Here's the takeaway from the October 2013 article you linked above: "The US has already lost the ability to dictate to the rest of the world on international economic issues, even though it still wields considerable clout because of the size of its economy, and military prowess."
I think it's a terrific development that the US of A has lost the ability to dictate to the rest of the world on economic issues.
I don't think pushing other countries around is in our best long-term interest.
I agree with your sentiments with the caveat "losing" not lost. The danger lies with those neocons who don't see the writing on the wall -- or rather do see it and will do anything to stop it.
Quote:Coffee and roses, David.
Stock markets at all-time highs, low gas prices, lay-offs at 43 year lows.
More "de-dollarization" please!
I'm with you. A multipolar world is far more healthy for all of us, rather than one nation with a tiny elite that sees itself as the galactic emperor dominating everyone else with the death star.
***
Meanwhile, you keep missing the central thrust of the argument here. The problem is the rise of another reserve currency
that will lead to the collapse of the dollar as a viable and singular hegemon.
Pure speculation unsupported by the economic facts on the ground here in the States.
The economy of the US of A does not depend on dollar hegemony.
Can you point to a single deletrious economic impact this "de-dollarization" has caused?[/quote]
How does a nation fund a $223 trillion debt without all the benefits provided by reserve currency status?
Remove that backing, and the rest of the world that now has little option but to buy US dollar obligations (Treasuries) with the dollars they get from trading with the US and the whole game changes. Imagine just a tenth or a quarter of foreign trading nations accepting dollars in payment of trade and no longer investing those via their central banks into the Treasury market. The Treasury can only roll over debt for so long ( quantitive easing) and not forever. One day the chickens will come home to roost.
However, it is not my intention to conflate two different issues here. The US obviously can and will survive and prosper because it has huge natural reserves. The point I am making, however, is that dollar hegemony that has been its (inflated) strength for many decades past will become a thing of the past. For me (and you I think) this would be a very good thing.
Quote:This doesn't mean the US will cease to exist - but it will mean that it will lead to it losing it's ability to project its
power anywhere near as widely as now.
Isn't that a wonderful thing? Rather than the US of A dictating to the rest of the world, we could have an "all principals" approach to problems
which are resolved thru diplomacy and not American fiat.
As an American I'd be proud to see my country behave like a civil actor on the world stage...sigh...
It would be a win win for everyone, I think ---- other than the tiny elite who still adhere to inflated ambitions of power.
Quote:And that, in turn, will have continuing and deleterious impact on the US economy with a $200 trillion + accumulated debt
(yes, $200 t not $20t - see HERE - one of many similar articles).
This is real interesting!
I glanced at the first paragraph, saw the name -- Laurence Kotlikoff -- and sized him up instantly as a gold bug.
I googled "Laurence Kotlikoff gold" and sure enough -- dude's into gold.
I believe what gold bugs say about the US ecomony as much as I believe what born-again Christians say about Jesus.
He's not the only one saying this (again it's a case of being too lazy to Google extensively for relevant links as I've done this before elsewhere several times already).
Gold will never be able to replace digital money, although it is more than likely is going to increase in price considerably once the price fixing by the US financial community collapses and the old supply-demand equation kicks back in. Russia and China have been buying it by the tonne these past years.
Quote:On nuclear war: no one is speaking of starting a nuclear war, but of a nuclear war starting.... out of a conflict that
grows out of control if & when there is direct conflict between Russia and the US in Syria (and or the Ukraine).
Your belief that humans always make rational decisions in highly tense situations is charming and heart-warming - and I
want it to be true.
I reject the premise.
What highly tense situation?
Once Obama and Putin removed weapons of mass destruction from the Mideast (except Israel, of course), the world faced an entirely new paradigm in regards to energy resources.
The US has 50/60 nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik air base in Turkey as we speak. However, there is no need to have nukes located geographically --- cruise missiles have extensive ranges and nukes stored in Europe could easily hit targets in the muddle east.
The "highly tense situation" would be the one that developed should the neocon policy to directly confront Russia militarily in Syria (as I previously detailed) as as set out in all sorts of foreign policy documents where Russia (and now China) are viewed as nations to be confronted.
Quote:But it fails from a lack of psychological reality. I do not regard the elites as psychologically able to subdue their own shadows any more than anyone else.
Let contemporary history be the guide on this.
Don't see the sky falling, myself.
I see problems that can be resolved thru diplomacy.
I certainly hope so. And in that we are as one. Problems can be resolved through diplomacy. Where there's a will...
Hoping and wishing doesn't change the black hearts of those who currently run Washington. There is a real and urgent need to have common sense returned to the equation.
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - David Guyatt - 10-08-2016
Does anyone want to weep? Washington prat alert:
What was I just saying about black hearts in DC...
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Lauren Johnson - 10-08-2016
Pat Lang on Mike Morell, a jumped up pretty boy.
Quote:"As for the clincher about Trump being a Moscow run Manchurian candidate, I would suggest that Morell might have been a top analyst at the Agency but he never acquired or ran an actual spy in his life so his comments about The Donald having been recruited by Putin should be taken for what they are worth, which is precisely nothing. Indeed, as I have noted, calling someone an "unwitting agent" is itself meaningless as it implies being somehow recruited to engage in espionage but without realizing it and without being actually called upon to do anything. I would doubt that many real CIA Operations Officers would agree with Morell's glib assessment or use such an expression. Trump for all his failings is presumably patriotic and no fool. He just might understand that dealing with a powerful foreign leader who is not completely to one's liking just might be better than nuclear war. Perhaps Morell and Clinton should consider that option.Michael Morell is, in fact, a product of Washington groupthink and a major beneficiary of Establishment politics, the very tradition that Hillary Clinton represents." Phil Geraldi
---------------
[FONT=&]Geraldi is a friend and I assure you that, unlike Morell, he has recruited and run many foreign assets (agents).
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]The most recent film production of Le Carre's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" is a very nearly perfect depiction of the result of the process by which political creatures like the character Percy Alleline and jumped up pretty boy types in expensive suits like Morell rise to run once mighty agencies of the secret information trade.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]The vicious but smooth people who rise in such circumstances are always present in every large organization but in the intelligence business more is at stake than money. The IC sometimes fails? Yes, it does and when that happens the cause is often the "leadership" of people like Tenet and Morell.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]I expect that Morell will be right at the top in the first H. Clinton Administration. pl[/FONT]
[FONT=&][URL="http://www.unz.com/article/i-ran-the-cia-man-piles-on-trump/"]
http://www.unz.com/article/i-ran-the-cia-man-piles-on-trump/[/URL][/FONT]
[FONT=&]Download artists_versus_bureaucrats....pdf[/FONT]
[/FONT]
Posted at 02:07 PM in As The Borg Turns, intelligence |Permalink
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - David Guyatt - 10-08-2016
Lauren Johnson Wrote:Pat Lang on Mike Morell, a jumped up pretty boy.
Quote:"As for the clincher about Trump being a Moscow run Manchurian candidate, I would suggest that Morell might have been a top analyst at the Agency but he never acquired or ran an actual spy in his life so his comments about The Donald having been recruited by Putin should be taken for what they are worth, which is precisely nothing. Indeed, as I have noted, calling someone an "unwitting agent" is itself meaningless as it implies being somehow recruited to engage in espionage but without realizing it and without being actually called upon to do anything. I would doubt that many real CIA Operations Officers would agree with Morell's glib assessment or use such an expression. Trump for all his failings is presumably patriotic and no fool. He just might understand that dealing with a powerful foreign leader who is not completely to one's liking just might be better than nuclear war. Perhaps Morell and Clinton should consider that option.Michael Morell is, in fact, a product of Washington groupthink and a major beneficiary of Establishment politics, the very tradition that Hillary Clinton represents." Phil Geraldi
---------------
[FONT=&]Geraldi is a friend and I assure you that, unlike Morell, he has recruited and run many foreign assets (agents).
[FONT=&]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]The most recent film production of Le Carre's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" is a very nearly perfect depiction of the result of the process by which political creatures like the character Percy Alleline and jumped up pretty boy types in expensive suits like Morell rise to run once mighty agencies of the secret information trade.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]The vicious but smooth people who rise in such circumstances are always present in every large organization but in the intelligence business more is at stake than money. The IC sometimes fails? Yes, it does and when that happens the cause is often the "leadership" of people like Tenet and Morell.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&]I expect that Morell will be right at the top in the first H. Clinton Administration. pl[/FONT]
[FONT=&][URL="http://www.unz.com/article/i-ran-the-cia-man-piles-on-trump/"]
http://www.unz.com/article/i-ran-the-cia-man-piles-on-trump/[/URL][/FONT]
[FONT=&]Download artists_versus_bureaucrats....pdf[/FONT]
[/FONT]
Posted at 02:07 PM in As The Borg Turns, intelligence |Permalink
I believe Sir Percy is fully and completely occupied pointing at the porcelain.
And speaking of smelly pissoir's, what is the mushroom with an extra "L" doing today to further his climb up Hillary's pantsuit leg?
Actually, please don't answer that. The thought of what I said just reached my stomach...
::vomit::
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Cliff Varnell - 10-08-2016
David Guyatt Wrote:
You're exaggerating and spinning the issue and then making a flippant analysis based on that oversimplification.
I think we could break thru exaggeration, spin and over-simplification if you could point to me one negative impact "de-dollarization" has had on the US economy.
The claim that the US of A is currently funding a $223 trillion dollar debt is some gold bug's fevered dream.
Quote:However, it's not an exaggeration to say US hegemony is under serious threat, which is the point I've been stressing and warning about.
You're exaggerating its significance and over-looking the actual state of the US economy as the world moves away from dollar hegemony.
Quote:And if you think the US won't use nukes, think again. Using mini-nukes has become part of US strategic thinking:
The American rationale for deploying tactical nukes would be the removal of weapons of mass destruction.
Libya voluntary gave up their WMD. So did Syria. So did Iran.
Quote:As I said in an earlier post, the neocon folks in Washington are mad and MAD is a thing of the past.
Neither the American ruling elites nor the Anglo-American Security State are monolithic.
Not everyone has their fingers in the illicit drug pie...
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Lauren Johnson - 10-08-2016
Cliff Varnell Wrote:David Guyatt Wrote:
You're exaggerating and spinning the issue and then making a flippant analysis based on that oversimplification.
I think we could break thru exaggeration, spin and over-simplification if you could point to me one negative impact "de-dollarization" has had on the US economy.
The claim that the US of A is currently funding a $223 trillion dollar debt is some gold bug's fevered dream.
Quote:However, it's not an exaggeration to say US hegemony is under serious threat, which is the point I've been stressing and warning about.
You're exaggerating its significance and over-looking the actual state of the US economy as the world moves away from dollar hegemony.
Quote:And if you think the US won't use nukes, think again. Using mini-nukes has become part of US strategic thinking:
The American rationale for deploying tactical nukes would be the removal of weapons of mass destruction.
Libya voluntary gave up their WMD. So did Syria. So did Iran.
Quote:As I said in an earlier post, the neocon folks in Washington are mad and MAD is a thing of the past.
Neither the American ruling elites nor the Anglo-American Security State are monolithic.
Not everyone has their fingers in the illicit drug pie...
Cliff, thanks for setting such an excellent example. I'm going to put this into my personal collection of pure trolling comments.
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Cliff Varnell - 10-08-2016
Lauren Johnson Wrote:Cliff Varnell Wrote:David Guyatt Wrote:
You're exaggerating and spinning the issue and then making a flippant analysis based on that oversimplification.
I think we could break thru exaggeration, spin and over-simplification if you could point to me one negative impact "de-dollarization" has had on the US economy.
The claim that the US of A is currently funding a $223 trillion dollar debt is some gold bug's fevered dream.
Quote:However, it's not an exaggeration to say US hegemony is under serious threat, which is the point I've been stressing and warning about.
You're exaggerating its significance and over-looking the actual state of the US economy as the world moves away from dollar hegemony.
Quote:And if you think the US won't use nukes, think again. Using mini-nukes has become part of US strategic thinking:
The American rationale for deploying tactical nukes would be the removal of weapons of mass destruction.
Libya voluntary gave up their WMD. So did Syria. So did Iran.
Quote:As I said in an earlier post, the neocon folks in Washington are mad and MAD is a thing of the past.
Neither the American ruling elites nor the Anglo-American Security State are monolithic.
Not everyone has their fingers in the illicit drug pie...
Cliff, thanks for setting such an excellent example. I'm going to put this into my personal collection of pure trolling comments.
Lauren, I'm mystified.
I honestly don't see what's objectionable about my discussion with David.
A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria - Cliff Varnell - 10-08-2016
Gentle reader, I have a post in the Arts section "Origin History of the term 'Hardcore punk rock'" which is my legacy piece 3 & 1/2 decades in the making, a chronicle of a "deep event" of lasting cultural significance.
North of 12,7000 views on Deep Politics!
The last thing I'd want to to be barred from this Forum for trolling, so it's best I make this my last post here.