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Oil Disruption is Zooming and Global Panic Awaits - Ed Jewett - 25-02-2012
Oil Disruption is Zooming and Global Panic Awaits
Oil is up to $110 and it is on a roll.The last time oil went in this direction, it caused a slowing in the global economy that led to a global financial panic. What's causing it? Peak oil, Chinese growth and lots of potential oil disruption. Pretty much the same factors that caused it last time.The pipeline disruption is a little different this time.
Israel
The headline player is Iran due to its nuclear program. But Iran isn't actually disrupting the production system, they are merely making threats. If you unwind this a bit, it's pretty clear that the countries actually sending shockwaves of fear through the markets are Israel and the US. However, of the partners in this relationship, Israel is in the drivers seat. They are calling the shots on the timing of an attack on Iran and they will take the world along for a ride. The funny thing, to set this entire disruption event in motion, the Israeli attack on Iran doesn't have to be that big. It just needs to be public and able blow something up.NOTE: IF you start seeing people with strong connections to the Israeli government buying up oil futures contracts for the "Widows and Orphans fund", start buying like crazy.
Nigeria
Nigeria's MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta) is back for the first time since the 2009 amnesty-payoff. The government recently decided to stop the big (although small $$ compared to the amount top gov't and corporate players in the country are paying themselves) payments to MEND guerrillas and they have resumed operations. They are making attacks again on foreign oil company pipelines. Last time they were able to hit nearly 1 m barrels a day of disruption. We'll see if they can hit that level again. Another factor is oil theft. Bunkering on the pipelines of Shell and other foreign oil firms operating in the Delta is reaching a new level of dynamism. The number of bunkering valves inserted into company pipelines is up to 4 a kilometer! Lots of money is being made at the grass roots level.
Global Heart Attack
This is shaping up to be an amazingly violent global heart attack. Another in a long line, with more yet to come. Worse, everytime it happens, we get weaker and the global elites get stronger. We still have the 16% unemployment due to the last one while the fortunes of the global 0.001% zoomed.
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