29-03-2009, 09:31 PM
Interesting information and commentary from 'Seeking Alpha' under the above title.
It seems that the new NYSE operation that takes over administration of the ECBOT Gold and Silver emini futures contracts tomorrow has a problem getting hold of 1 Kg Gold Bars. They have used the Changeover from ECBOT to introduce changes to the contract wording that give considerable wriggle room in terms of Short position bullion cover requirements and what Longs are required to accept in lieu of physical delivery. Prima Facie it is more evidence of increasing supply tightness in bona-fide ('official', 'Kosher') supplies of gold and there are many industry pundits calling for $1,500 - $2,000 / oz by the end of the year. Adrian Ash of Bullion Vault is the first article commentator to that effect too.
I remain cautious. The 'Deep-Market' operators don't appear desperate to me and I expect them to remain in control. I do expect $1,000 to be easily breached on that timeframe - but I also expect more 'out of the blue' price smack-downs and even greater volatility than in the past couple of years. Speculative longs trading on margin who get caught up in the hype will - as always - be crucified.
It seems that the new NYSE operation that takes over administration of the ECBOT Gold and Silver emini futures contracts tomorrow has a problem getting hold of 1 Kg Gold Bars. They have used the Changeover from ECBOT to introduce changes to the contract wording that give considerable wriggle room in terms of Short position bullion cover requirements and what Longs are required to accept in lieu of physical delivery. Prima Facie it is more evidence of increasing supply tightness in bona-fide ('official', 'Kosher') supplies of gold and there are many industry pundits calling for $1,500 - $2,000 / oz by the end of the year. Adrian Ash of Bullion Vault is the first article commentator to that effect too.
I remain cautious. The 'Deep-Market' operators don't appear desperate to me and I expect them to remain in control. I do expect $1,000 to be easily breached on that timeframe - but I also expect more 'out of the blue' price smack-downs and even greater volatility than in the past couple of years. Speculative longs trading on margin who get caught up in the hype will - as always - be crucified.
Peter Presland
".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn
[/SIZE][/SIZE]
".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn
[/SIZE][/SIZE]