30-08-2011, 06:14 AM
Global Warming & War: New Study Finds Link Between Climate Change and Conflict
A new study has found that that often war is associated with global climate change. According to the report, there are links between the climate phenomenon El Niño and outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru. The scientists find that El Niño, which brings hot and dry conditions to tropical nations, doubles the risk of civil war in up to 90 countries, and may help account for a fifth of conflicts worldwide during the past 50 years. We speak with the report's lead author, Solomon Hsiang, a postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
Solomon Hsiang, lead author of a study linking civil wars with global climate change. He is a postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. The research for the study on civil wars and climate change was conducted while he was at Columbia University.
Related stories
Shored Up: Debate over Development on Barrier Islands Intensifies After Hurricane
Bill McKibben:[URL="http://www.democracynow.org/2011/8/29/bill_mckibben_will_hurricane_irene_be"] Will Hurricane Irene Be a Wake-Up Call about Climate Change?
"We Are Still Under Siege": Vermont Gov. Shumlin on Catastrophic Flooding & Climate Change[/URL]
Bill McKibben: From Storms to Droughts, Devastating Extreme Weather Linked to Human-Caused Climate Change
Bill McKibben of 350.org Calls House Vote on Global Warming "One of the Most Embarrassing Votes Congress Has Ever Taken"
"Climate cycles drive civil war: Tropical conflicts double during El Niño years," by Quirin Schiermeier. (Nature, Aug. 24, 2011)
AMY GOODMAN: We move to another issue around climate. A new study has found that war is associated with global climate. According to the report, there are links between the climate phenomenon El Niño and outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru. In fact, the scientists find that El Niño, which brings hot and dry conditions to tropical nations, doubles the risk of civil war in up to 90 countries. The study was published online last week in the journal Nature. El Niño may help account for a fifth of conflicts worldwide during the past 50 years.
We're joined by Solomon Hsiang, a lead author of the study linking civil wars with climate change, postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
Welcome to Democracy Now! Explain what you found, in these last few minutes.
SOLOMON HSIANG: So what we did is we looked at data since 1950, and we looked at how the global climate fluctuated between a cooler and wetter La Niña state and a higher and drier El Niño state. And what we found is that when the global climate was in the cooler and wetter La Niña state, the risk of conflict in the tropics was about three percent per year. So what that means is, if you had a hundred countries, you would expect about three of them to begin a new civil war in any given year. But when you move to the hotter and drier El Niño state, the risk of conflict rises to six percent, which is a doubling.
AMY GOODMAN: And a little backing up, El Niño, explain exactly what it is.
SOLOMON HSIANG: Sorry. So, El Niño is a change in the global climate that originates in the Pacific Ocean. So under normal conditions, there's winds that push warm water across the Pacific Ocean and basically pile it up around Indonesia. But in some years, that wind pattern breaks down, and that water sloshes all the way across the ocean, across the equatorial Pacific, and releases a tremendous amount of thermal energy into the atmosphere. And that creates an enormous wave that propagates through the atmosphere around the tropics, leading to warmer and drier conditions throughout most of the tropics and subtropics.
AMY GOODMAN: Do you see the U.S. being impacted by El Niño in this way that you're describing?
SOLOMON HSIANG: So, actually, in our studythere are generally observable impacts of El Niño in the United States. But in our study, the impacts were not large enough to merit inclusion in the group of countries that we denoted as being highly impacted by El Niño. So, in the tropics, the effect of El Niño is actually much more dramatic than what we observe in the United States.
AMY GOODMAN: What were you most surprised by in this study?
SOLOMON HSIANG: So, we were actually most startled by the magnitude of the effect. The idea that El Niño could affect one-fifth of conflicts around the world startled us, and it was completely unexpected.
AMY GOODMAN: Give an example.
SOLOMON HSIANG: So, you know, we haveit's very difficult to pin down a particular conflict as being related to El Niño. In general, I think the way to think about it is that the global climate is a contributing factor to ongoing existing conflicts. But there are many countries in the sample that look particularly conspicuous, because they begin conflicts in El Niño years.
AMY GOODMAN: Like?
SOLOMON HSIANG: For example, Peru, Sudan, Chad, Indonesia, Myanmar, these are all countries that have experienced conflicts that seem to be highly correlated with this process.
AMY GOODMAN: We're going to link to your study at democracynow.org. Solomon Hsiang is our guest, the lead author of a study linking civil wars with global climate change, postdoctoral student at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
----------------------------------
NB [My Comments] - This is FAR from the only study of the well known effect in the Environmental community of past, present and projected future wars due to changing environmental factors! Currently there are and have been in recent history wars over water [which is decreasing], land and especially farming land, resources effected by climate change, sea level changes, weather changes, number and severity of storms, salinization of land, dropping of water tables and/or level in rivers and lakes - even the Aral Sea.....and more. We [humans] have created a total mess of the Planet, for millions of years in balance. We have fucked it up and most are unaware. Climate change, overpopulation, overuse of resources, unfair distribution of resources, and the multitude of changes that result from climate change and overpopulation have and will cause conflicts and Wars! The Environment is a Security issue, as well as a quality of life and quality of Planet issue.
A new study has found that that often war is associated with global climate change. According to the report, there are links between the climate phenomenon El Niño and outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru. The scientists find that El Niño, which brings hot and dry conditions to tropical nations, doubles the risk of civil war in up to 90 countries, and may help account for a fifth of conflicts worldwide during the past 50 years. We speak with the report's lead author, Solomon Hsiang, a postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
Solomon Hsiang, lead author of a study linking civil wars with global climate change. He is a postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. The research for the study on civil wars and climate change was conducted while he was at Columbia University.
Related stories
Shored Up: Debate over Development on Barrier Islands Intensifies After Hurricane
Bill McKibben:[URL="http://www.democracynow.org/2011/8/29/bill_mckibben_will_hurricane_irene_be"] Will Hurricane Irene Be a Wake-Up Call about Climate Change?
"We Are Still Under Siege": Vermont Gov. Shumlin on Catastrophic Flooding & Climate Change[/URL]
Bill McKibben: From Storms to Droughts, Devastating Extreme Weather Linked to Human-Caused Climate Change
Bill McKibben of 350.org Calls House Vote on Global Warming "One of the Most Embarrassing Votes Congress Has Ever Taken"
"Climate cycles drive civil war: Tropical conflicts double during El Niño years," by Quirin Schiermeier. (Nature, Aug. 24, 2011)
AMY GOODMAN: We move to another issue around climate. A new study has found that war is associated with global climate. According to the report, there are links between the climate phenomenon El Niño and outbreaks of violence in countries from southern Sudan to Indonesia and Peru. In fact, the scientists find that El Niño, which brings hot and dry conditions to tropical nations, doubles the risk of civil war in up to 90 countries. The study was published online last week in the journal Nature. El Niño may help account for a fifth of conflicts worldwide during the past 50 years.
We're joined by Solomon Hsiang, a lead author of the study linking civil wars with climate change, postdoctoral researcher at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
Welcome to Democracy Now! Explain what you found, in these last few minutes.
SOLOMON HSIANG: So what we did is we looked at data since 1950, and we looked at how the global climate fluctuated between a cooler and wetter La Niña state and a higher and drier El Niño state. And what we found is that when the global climate was in the cooler and wetter La Niña state, the risk of conflict in the tropics was about three percent per year. So what that means is, if you had a hundred countries, you would expect about three of them to begin a new civil war in any given year. But when you move to the hotter and drier El Niño state, the risk of conflict rises to six percent, which is a doubling.
AMY GOODMAN: And a little backing up, El Niño, explain exactly what it is.
SOLOMON HSIANG: Sorry. So, El Niño is a change in the global climate that originates in the Pacific Ocean. So under normal conditions, there's winds that push warm water across the Pacific Ocean and basically pile it up around Indonesia. But in some years, that wind pattern breaks down, and that water sloshes all the way across the ocean, across the equatorial Pacific, and releases a tremendous amount of thermal energy into the atmosphere. And that creates an enormous wave that propagates through the atmosphere around the tropics, leading to warmer and drier conditions throughout most of the tropics and subtropics.
AMY GOODMAN: Do you see the U.S. being impacted by El Niño in this way that you're describing?
SOLOMON HSIANG: So, actually, in our studythere are generally observable impacts of El Niño in the United States. But in our study, the impacts were not large enough to merit inclusion in the group of countries that we denoted as being highly impacted by El Niño. So, in the tropics, the effect of El Niño is actually much more dramatic than what we observe in the United States.
AMY GOODMAN: What were you most surprised by in this study?
SOLOMON HSIANG: So, we were actually most startled by the magnitude of the effect. The idea that El Niño could affect one-fifth of conflicts around the world startled us, and it was completely unexpected.
AMY GOODMAN: Give an example.
SOLOMON HSIANG: So, you know, we haveit's very difficult to pin down a particular conflict as being related to El Niño. In general, I think the way to think about it is that the global climate is a contributing factor to ongoing existing conflicts. But there are many countries in the sample that look particularly conspicuous, because they begin conflicts in El Niño years.
AMY GOODMAN: Like?
SOLOMON HSIANG: For example, Peru, Sudan, Chad, Indonesia, Myanmar, these are all countries that have experienced conflicts that seem to be highly correlated with this process.
AMY GOODMAN: We're going to link to your study at democracynow.org. Solomon Hsiang is our guest, the lead author of a study linking civil wars with global climate change, postdoctoral student at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.
----------------------------------
NB [My Comments] - This is FAR from the only study of the well known effect in the Environmental community of past, present and projected future wars due to changing environmental factors! Currently there are and have been in recent history wars over water [which is decreasing], land and especially farming land, resources effected by climate change, sea level changes, weather changes, number and severity of storms, salinization of land, dropping of water tables and/or level in rivers and lakes - even the Aral Sea.....and more. We [humans] have created a total mess of the Planet, for millions of years in balance. We have fucked it up and most are unaware. Climate change, overpopulation, overuse of resources, unfair distribution of resources, and the multitude of changes that result from climate change and overpopulation have and will cause conflicts and Wars! The Environment is a Security issue, as well as a quality of life and quality of Planet issue.
"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws. - Mayer Rothschild
"Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience! People are obedient in the face of poverty, starvation, stupidity, war, and cruelty. Our problem is that grand thieves are running the country. That's our problem!" - Howard Zinn
"If there is no struggle there is no progress. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and never will" - Frederick Douglass
"Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience! People are obedient in the face of poverty, starvation, stupidity, war, and cruelty. Our problem is that grand thieves are running the country. That's our problem!" - Howard Zinn
"If there is no struggle there is no progress. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and never will" - Frederick Douglass