rootclaim - Estimating the Probability of Conspiracy vs. LHO Acted Alone

[Peter Lemkin]

The probability that LHO acted alone is demonstrably zero. Evidence has established that shots were fired from more than one direction. That alone rules out any "lone nut", LHO or anyone else. The probability that two or more "lone nuts" acting completely independently of each other and without any knowledge of each other is effectively zero (allowing for the impossibility of definitively proving a negative).

Thus, the probability of a conspiracy is one. No fancy math or crowd sourcing required.

Then that would be demonstrated by assessing evidence and adjusting probabilities.

Myself, I believe the Neutron Activation Analysis on the paraffin test on his cheek and the FBI test that failed to discredit NAA essentially clears him of shooting a rifle. But I am curious as to how that or any other piece of evidence affects the probabilities.

There are other hypotheses that could be estimated:


-- What was LHO's role in the assassination:

1) Member of the conspiracy
2) Government operative that infiltrated the conspiracy and was set up as a patsy
3) No role - he was just a convenient defector who was framed

but even in this case, it might be necessary to have the 4th possibility -- LHO acted alone -- and let the evidence estimate its probability as 0.

I see some value in discussing 1,2,3 - although this has been gone through endlessly and some seem to want it to continue endlessly, so Americans don't come to any conclusions, and then feel they need to act. I see no value in 'estimates' of the 'chances' of these in mathematical percentages or odds or other terms. This is a parlor game and not deep political analysis. I find this very annoying and advancing little to nothing in getting to the truth, which is done by research, reading, debate, and comparing the veracity of different narratives/facts/evidence - and not in mathematical distancing from what the assassination did to the USA, and how it effected and effects the USA and World today - every day! This is mental masturbation, IMO, and can be found on most websites that are devoted to or have sections on the JFK assassination. I don't see where it fits in here, where we hope for deep political thinking, analysis, and conclusions. This is something along the line of 'prayerman' - what are the chances it is X or Y or Z. America is already a policestate and growing and you want to put odds on a commercial website or here about this.....?????!!!!! I think many do not understand the importance or consequences of Dallas AT ALL, they only endlessly 'play in the Plaza'. How is this going to make people ACT and stop the endless Dallas-like actions since? How does it inform about WHO was really behind the assassination and WHY? Oswald was not the focus nor key character in the charade/magic trick/covert op/coup d'etat. That role was written for him, yes, but by those who really planned and executed it. He was but a puppet dangling on many strings until on command from above Ruby cut them.

If Oswald was a 'member', he was tricked into being a 'member' or was infiltrating and pretending to be a 'member'. He was a government operative, but being manipulated as many government operatives are and didn't know who was pulling his strings or what his 'position' was. He was set up as the designated patsy, but in case something went awry, there were alternative patsies.