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rootclaim - Estimating the Probability of Conspiracy vs. LHO Acted Alone
#8
Peter Lemkin Wrote:.I see no value in 'estimates' of the 'chances' of these in mathematical percentages or odds or other terms. This is a parlor game and not deep political analysis. I find this very annoying and advancing little to nothing in getting to the truth, which is done by research, reading, debate, and comparing the veracity of different narratives/facts/evidence - and not in mathematical distancing from what the assassination did to the USA, and how it effected and effects the USA and World today - every day! This is mental masturbation, IMO, and can be found on most websites that are devoted to or have sections on the JFK assassination.

The 'parlor game' of Bayesian analysis has been used to assess likelihoods of outcomes in many real-world applications including but not limited to medical diagnosis, biological systems, spam mail filtering (turn it off and see what happens), fraud identification.

In fact, Bayesian analysis is one of the best ways in "comparing the veracity of different narratives/facts/evidence" and weighing their effect on the probability of each of the hypotheses being true.

And as far as getting at the truth... when one goes fishing its better to go to a place where there is a high probability of fish being present. Thus a Bayesian model could be used to assess competing hypotheses.

For example:

The role of an organization of former Nazis in the assassination:

H1: No Role
H2: Played a role in the assassination

As evidence comes in the original assessment of the probabilities of either would change.

Peter Lemkin Wrote:This is mental masturbation, IMO, and can be found on most websites that are devoted to or have sections on the JFK assassination. I don't see where it fits in here, where we hope for deep political thinking, analysis, and conclusions. This is something along the line of 'prayerman' - what are the chances it is X or Y or Z.

Sorry, I thought this was a JFK Assassination section. I thought that with some of the other topics posted here (Anatomy of a Second Floor Lunch Room Encounter, for example) it might be interesting and productive. I didn't realize topics were limited to only Deep Politics themes.

Peter Lemkin Wrote:America is already a policestate and growing and you want to put odds on a commercial website or here about this.....?????!!!!!

Not my thoughts at all... I would like to see the how the evidence as it enters changes the initial probabilities. It might give a result more in line with what conclusions the evidence really leads to that is much more in line with truth than the mock trial did. That ended up with a hung jury I believe. Out of curiousity, did you think the mock jury trial was mental masturbation?

For example, starting with some initial probabilities on hypotheses that LHO acted alone or conspiracy:

Evidence could be -- LHO's paraffin test was negative for having fired a rifle. That evidence with a factor for the reliability for the paraffin test would lower the LHO acted alone probability.

Then - The paraffin is sent to the Oak Ridge Lab for Neutron Activation Analysis -- the result is that there is no evidence from the paraffin of LHO having fired a rifle. Couple that with the reliability of the NAA and the lone assassin probability is further reduced.

Then - J Edgar has 7 agents fire the MC rifle, apply paraffin and sends that off to Oak Ridge. The NAA shows positive for all 7 having fired a rifle. The lone nut hypothesis probability is lowered again significantly.

This also has the effect of increasing the probability of a conspiracy, since the probabilities of Lone Nut + Conspiracy have to add up to 1.

I merelywant to use the website to illustrate an unbiased analysis of the evidence. It seems to me that is what they do as an illustration of how their implementation of Bayesian networks work.

Do you think that people are using the rootclaim probabilities of the source of the chemical attacks in Syria for betting purposes?

But OK, sorry, thought that this could be interesting and I'll pass along to my colleagues that are using Bayesian networks to identify fraudulent transactions that it's just a 'parlor game'.
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rootclaim - Estimating the Probability of Conspiracy vs. LHO Acted Alone - by Bill Fite - 27-04-2018, 06:04 PM

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