27-07-2012, 12:43 AM
The current civil war in Syrian is an extension of the Arab Spring revolts that began in Tunisia in Dec. 2010 and led to the ouster of dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The fourth domino is Assad in Syria, who is holding on to the belief that his family owns the nation. It began with unarmed demonstrationsacross the country provoked by the torture and murder of a 13-year-old boy bysecret policemen in Deraa in March last year for writing anti-government graffiti on walls.
Assad is a Alawite. The Alawites were a persecuted minority in the Western Mountains until the French afterthe First world war used them and recruited them for their army to put down themajority Sunni Revolt against the French. The Alawites a minority took powerover the years of relations with the French and took over the military withAssads' Father running the country.
After 30 Years In Syria,Outspoken Priest Is Expelled
by DEBORAH AMOS
http://www.npr.org/2012/06/18/155288114/after-30-years-in-syria-outspoken-priest-is-expelled
June 18, 2012
Syriahas expelled an Italian Jesuit priest for his outspoken criticism of thegovernment's crackdown on a popular uprising. The Rev. Paolo Dall'Oglio haslived in Syriafor 30 years, helping to restore a 1,000-year-old monastery that became acenter for Muslim and Christian understanding.
Dall'Oglio's departure from Damascuson Saturday was sudden. More than a year ago, the government ordered him out,but a campaign on Facebook "No to the Exile of Father Paolo" delayed his expulsion.
When the anti-government demonstrations began last year,Dall'Oglio supported the young Syrians who risked their lives to protestpeacefully.
"I am very moved by the face of many youth that havebeen suffering enormously to achieve their desire of freedom and dignity,"Dall'Oglio said last week from the garden of his home in Damascusas he bade farewell to friends and supporters before his expulsion.
"There are so many young persons that are put in jailand tortured, just because they have expressed, nonviolently, theiropinions."
His opinions have finally landed him on the wrong side ofthe government.
Sectarian Friction
For three decades, he headed a Christian community in anancient monastery he helped restore in the hills outside Damascus.He invited Muslims and Christians to pray together and they did in morepeaceful times. But Dall'Oglio says the uprising has strained Syria'sdiverse religious fabric.
The government says it protects religious minorities theChristians, the Alawites and others against what it says is an uprising ofMuslim fundamentalists. Dall'Oglio rejects this picture as simplistic, butacknowledges the tensions.
When asked whether he thinks Christians in Syriaare under threat from the uprising, Dall'Oglio is adamant that it is not therevolution that threatens them, but the conflict between the opposition and theregime, and the Alawite community.
"So there is, in some parts of Syria,in a real civil war we know that," he said.
Dall'Oglio also knows Syria'sminority Christians have real fears, but he says it is a generational issue.Older Christians have no experience with democracy not in the family or inthe community. Many younger Christians have joined the revolt because, he says,they believe democracy is better protection than the regime's violence andoppression against the Muslim majority.
"Many Christian youth believe in a better world. Weshould pay attention to them. Something new has happened," Dall'Ogliosaid. "I've been with Alawites for democracy, Sunnis for democracy,Christians for democracy these people are real."
Dangers, And Violence, Grow
They are real, he says, and in danger. When a young activist,photographer Basil Shehadi, a Christian, was killed by a sniper in theembattled city of Homs, the church in Damascus refused to hold his funeral asign of the divisions in the community.
Dall'Oglio arranged to hold the service at his monastery, wherehe says young activists Christians, Sunnis and Alawites mourned the lossand prayed together.
Does he have faith in this uprising now that it has entereda more violent phase?
"I am a monk, and I have taken a position withnonviolence," he says. But, he adds, "the church I belong to believesin the right of people of self-defense. I will stay faithful to nonviolence,but I won't be astonished that violence brings violence in reaction."
Dall'Oglio's departure comes as the Syrian government haslaunched a relentless offensive against the armed wing of the revolution.Civilians, no matter their religion, are dying every day. The priest'ssupporters say the government is trying to silence a voice for religioustolerance, just as the country slides into civil war.
"It would be better for me to be dead with the martyrsof this country than to go away in exile," Dall'Oglio says. "I haveoffered my life for the future of this country, and I wish to stay in fullsolidarity with them; so I will come back."
But not, he fears, anytime soon.
OP-ED
Because Syriais like Iraq,not Libya,prospects for democracy are grim
The kind of low-cost, remote-control, U.S./NATO midwiferythat ousted Gadhafi and gave birth to a new Libyais not likely to be repeated in Syria,writes Thomas L. Friedman. Syriais harder. Syriais Iraq.
By ThomasL. Friedman
Syndicated columnist
Lord knows I am rooting for the opposition forces in Syriato quickly prevail on their own and turn out to be as democratically inclinedas we hope. But the chances of this best-of-all-possible outcomes is low.That's because Syriais a lot like Iraq.Indeed, Syriais Iraq's twin a multisectarian, minority-ruled dictatorship that was held together by aniron fist under Baathist ideology. And, for me, the lesson of Iraqis quite simple: You can't go from Saddam to Switzerlandwithout getting stuck in Hobbes a war of all against all unless you have awell-armed external midwife, whom everyone on the ground both fears and truststo manage the transition. In Iraq,that was America.The kind of low-cost, remote-control, U.S./NATO midwifery that ousted Gadhafiand gave birth to a new Libyais not likely to be repeated in Syria.Syria isharder. Syriais Iraq.
And Iraqwas such a bitter experience for Americathat we prefer never to speak of it again. But Iraqis relevant here. The only reason Iraq has any chance for a decent outcometoday is because America was on the ground with tens of thousands of troops toact as that well-armed midwife, reasonably trusted and certainly feared by allsides, to manage Iraq's transition to more consensual politics. My gut tells methat Syria willrequire the same to have the same chance.
But because I absolutely would not advocate U.S.intervention on the ground in Syria or anywhere in the Arab world again andthe U.S. public would not support it I find myself hoping my analysis iswrong and that Syrians will surprise us by finding their own way, with justarms and diplomatic assistance, to a better political future. I know columnistsare supposed to pound the table and declaim what is necessary. But when youbelieve that what is necessary, an outside midwife for Syria,is impossible, you need to say so. I think those who have been advocating amore activist U.S. intervention in Syria and excoriating President BarackObama for not leading that are not being realistic about what it would taketo create a decent outcome.
Why? In the Middle East, thealternative to bad is not always good. It can be worse. I am awed at thebravery of those Syrian rebels who started this uprising, peacefully, withoutany arms, against a regime that plays by what I call Hama Rules, which are norules at all. The Assad regime deliberately killed demonstrators to turn thisconflict into a sectarian struggle between the ruling minority Alawite sect,led by the Assad clan, and the country's majority of Sunni Muslims. That's whythe opposite of the Assad dictatorship could be the breakup of Syria as theAlawites retreat to their coastal redoubt and a permanent civil war.
There are two things that could divert us from that outcome.One is the Iraqalternative, where Americawent in and decapitated the Saddam regime, occupied the country and forciblychanged it from a minority Sunni-led dictatorship to a majority Shiite-leddemocracy. Because of both U.S. incompetence and the nature of Iraq, this U.S.intervention triggered a civil war in which all the parties in Iraq Sunnis,Shiites and Kurds tested the new balance of power, inflicting enormouscasualties on each other and leading, tragically, to ethnic cleansing that rearrangedthe country into more homogeneous blocks of Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.
But the U.S.presence in Iraqcontained that civil war and ethnic cleansing from spreading to neighboringstates. And once that civil war burned itself out and all sides wereexhausted and more separated the U.S. successfully brokered a newconstitution and power-sharing deal in Iraq, with the Shiites enjoying majorityrule, the Sunnis out of power but not powerless, and the Kurds securingsemi-autonomy. The cost of this transition in lives and money was huge, andeven today Iraqis not a healthy democracy. But it has a chance, and it's now up to Iraqis.
Since it is highly unlikely that an armed, feared andtrusted midwife will dare enter the fray in Syria,the rebels on the ground there will have to do it themselves. Given Syria'sfractured society, that will not be easy unless there is a surprise. Asurprise would be the disparate Syrian opposition groups congealing into aunited political front maybe with the help of U.S., Turkish and Saudiintelligence officers on the ground and this new front reaching out tomoderate Alawites and Christians who supported the Assads out of fear andagreeing to build a new order together that protects majority and minorityrights. It would be wonderful to see the tyrannical Assad-Russia-Iran-Hezbollahaxis replaced by a democratizing Syria,not a chaotic Syria.
But color me dubious. The 20 percent of Syrians who arepro-Assad Alawites or Christians will be terrified of the new Sunni Muslimmajority, with its Muslim Brotherhood component, and this Sunni Muslim majorityhas suffered such brutality from this regime that reconciliation will bedifficult, especially with each passing day of bloodshed. Without an externalmidwife or a Syrian Mandela, the fires of conflict could burn for a long time.I hope I am surprised.
Assad is a Alawite. The Alawites were a persecuted minority in the Western Mountains until the French afterthe First world war used them and recruited them for their army to put down themajority Sunni Revolt against the French. The Alawites a minority took powerover the years of relations with the French and took over the military withAssads' Father running the country.
After 30 Years In Syria,Outspoken Priest Is Expelled
by DEBORAH AMOS
http://www.npr.org/2012/06/18/155288114/after-30-years-in-syria-outspoken-priest-is-expelled
June 18, 2012
Syriahas expelled an Italian Jesuit priest for his outspoken criticism of thegovernment's crackdown on a popular uprising. The Rev. Paolo Dall'Oglio haslived in Syriafor 30 years, helping to restore a 1,000-year-old monastery that became acenter for Muslim and Christian understanding.
Dall'Oglio's departure from Damascuson Saturday was sudden. More than a year ago, the government ordered him out,but a campaign on Facebook "No to the Exile of Father Paolo" delayed his expulsion.
When the anti-government demonstrations began last year,Dall'Oglio supported the young Syrians who risked their lives to protestpeacefully.
"I am very moved by the face of many youth that havebeen suffering enormously to achieve their desire of freedom and dignity,"Dall'Oglio said last week from the garden of his home in Damascusas he bade farewell to friends and supporters before his expulsion.
"There are so many young persons that are put in jailand tortured, just because they have expressed, nonviolently, theiropinions."
His opinions have finally landed him on the wrong side ofthe government.
Sectarian Friction
For three decades, he headed a Christian community in anancient monastery he helped restore in the hills outside Damascus.He invited Muslims and Christians to pray together and they did in morepeaceful times. But Dall'Oglio says the uprising has strained Syria'sdiverse religious fabric.
The government says it protects religious minorities theChristians, the Alawites and others against what it says is an uprising ofMuslim fundamentalists. Dall'Oglio rejects this picture as simplistic, butacknowledges the tensions.
When asked whether he thinks Christians in Syriaare under threat from the uprising, Dall'Oglio is adamant that it is not therevolution that threatens them, but the conflict between the opposition and theregime, and the Alawite community.
"So there is, in some parts of Syria,in a real civil war we know that," he said.
Dall'Oglio also knows Syria'sminority Christians have real fears, but he says it is a generational issue.Older Christians have no experience with democracy not in the family or inthe community. Many younger Christians have joined the revolt because, he says,they believe democracy is better protection than the regime's violence andoppression against the Muslim majority.
"Many Christian youth believe in a better world. Weshould pay attention to them. Something new has happened," Dall'Ogliosaid. "I've been with Alawites for democracy, Sunnis for democracy,Christians for democracy these people are real."
Dangers, And Violence, Grow
They are real, he says, and in danger. When a young activist,photographer Basil Shehadi, a Christian, was killed by a sniper in theembattled city of Homs, the church in Damascus refused to hold his funeral asign of the divisions in the community.
Dall'Oglio arranged to hold the service at his monastery, wherehe says young activists Christians, Sunnis and Alawites mourned the lossand prayed together.
Does he have faith in this uprising now that it has entereda more violent phase?
"I am a monk, and I have taken a position withnonviolence," he says. But, he adds, "the church I belong to believesin the right of people of self-defense. I will stay faithful to nonviolence,but I won't be astonished that violence brings violence in reaction."
Dall'Oglio's departure comes as the Syrian government haslaunched a relentless offensive against the armed wing of the revolution.Civilians, no matter their religion, are dying every day. The priest'ssupporters say the government is trying to silence a voice for religioustolerance, just as the country slides into civil war.
"It would be better for me to be dead with the martyrsof this country than to go away in exile," Dall'Oglio says. "I haveoffered my life for the future of this country, and I wish to stay in fullsolidarity with them; so I will come back."
But not, he fears, anytime soon.
OP-ED
Because Syriais like Iraq,not Libya,prospects for democracy are grim
The kind of low-cost, remote-control, U.S./NATO midwiferythat ousted Gadhafi and gave birth to a new Libyais not likely to be repeated in Syria,writes Thomas L. Friedman. Syriais harder. Syriais Iraq.
By ThomasL. Friedman
Syndicated columnist
Lord knows I am rooting for the opposition forces in Syriato quickly prevail on their own and turn out to be as democratically inclinedas we hope. But the chances of this best-of-all-possible outcomes is low.That's because Syriais a lot like Iraq.Indeed, Syriais Iraq's twin a multisectarian, minority-ruled dictatorship that was held together by aniron fist under Baathist ideology. And, for me, the lesson of Iraqis quite simple: You can't go from Saddam to Switzerlandwithout getting stuck in Hobbes a war of all against all unless you have awell-armed external midwife, whom everyone on the ground both fears and truststo manage the transition. In Iraq,that was America.The kind of low-cost, remote-control, U.S./NATO midwifery that ousted Gadhafiand gave birth to a new Libyais not likely to be repeated in Syria.Syria isharder. Syriais Iraq.
And Iraqwas such a bitter experience for Americathat we prefer never to speak of it again. But Iraqis relevant here. The only reason Iraq has any chance for a decent outcometoday is because America was on the ground with tens of thousands of troops toact as that well-armed midwife, reasonably trusted and certainly feared by allsides, to manage Iraq's transition to more consensual politics. My gut tells methat Syria willrequire the same to have the same chance.
But because I absolutely would not advocate U.S.intervention on the ground in Syria or anywhere in the Arab world again andthe U.S. public would not support it I find myself hoping my analysis iswrong and that Syrians will surprise us by finding their own way, with justarms and diplomatic assistance, to a better political future. I know columnistsare supposed to pound the table and declaim what is necessary. But when youbelieve that what is necessary, an outside midwife for Syria,is impossible, you need to say so. I think those who have been advocating amore activist U.S. intervention in Syria and excoriating President BarackObama for not leading that are not being realistic about what it would taketo create a decent outcome.
Why? In the Middle East, thealternative to bad is not always good. It can be worse. I am awed at thebravery of those Syrian rebels who started this uprising, peacefully, withoutany arms, against a regime that plays by what I call Hama Rules, which are norules at all. The Assad regime deliberately killed demonstrators to turn thisconflict into a sectarian struggle between the ruling minority Alawite sect,led by the Assad clan, and the country's majority of Sunni Muslims. That's whythe opposite of the Assad dictatorship could be the breakup of Syria as theAlawites retreat to their coastal redoubt and a permanent civil war.
There are two things that could divert us from that outcome.One is the Iraqalternative, where Americawent in and decapitated the Saddam regime, occupied the country and forciblychanged it from a minority Sunni-led dictatorship to a majority Shiite-leddemocracy. Because of both U.S. incompetence and the nature of Iraq, this U.S.intervention triggered a civil war in which all the parties in Iraq Sunnis,Shiites and Kurds tested the new balance of power, inflicting enormouscasualties on each other and leading, tragically, to ethnic cleansing that rearrangedthe country into more homogeneous blocks of Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.
But the U.S.presence in Iraqcontained that civil war and ethnic cleansing from spreading to neighboringstates. And once that civil war burned itself out and all sides wereexhausted and more separated the U.S. successfully brokered a newconstitution and power-sharing deal in Iraq, with the Shiites enjoying majorityrule, the Sunnis out of power but not powerless, and the Kurds securingsemi-autonomy. The cost of this transition in lives and money was huge, andeven today Iraqis not a healthy democracy. But it has a chance, and it's now up to Iraqis.
Since it is highly unlikely that an armed, feared andtrusted midwife will dare enter the fray in Syria,the rebels on the ground there will have to do it themselves. Given Syria'sfractured society, that will not be easy unless there is a surprise. Asurprise would be the disparate Syrian opposition groups congealing into aunited political front maybe with the help of U.S., Turkish and Saudiintelligence officers on the ground and this new front reaching out tomoderate Alawites and Christians who supported the Assads out of fear andagreeing to build a new order together that protects majority and minorityrights. It would be wonderful to see the tyrannical Assad-Russia-Iran-Hezbollahaxis replaced by a democratizing Syria,not a chaotic Syria.
But color me dubious. The 20 percent of Syrians who arepro-Assad Alawites or Christians will be terrified of the new Sunni Muslimmajority, with its Muslim Brotherhood component, and this Sunni Muslim majorityhas suffered such brutality from this regime that reconciliation will bedifficult, especially with each passing day of bloodshed. Without an externalmidwife or a Syrian Mandela, the fires of conflict could burn for a long time.I hope I am surprised.