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RUSSIA'S WAR ON ITSELF
#11
"Thanks for working through this material".

Well the way I look at it, is how do I know whether I find it agreeable, or disagreeable, if I don't actually dive down that new rabbit hole and take a look around for myself?

I'm on a couple of other forums as well, but there's just not a lot of feedback to challenge anything I may have wrong. And on Twitter? Good luck having anyone even seeing your opinions without a blue check, much less feedback! And there's little feedback here any more as well, forums are dying. So let's work through this together.



"So what led me to the quantum transition which meant I had to disregard the prominent names you mention?  I reconnected with Russell Bentley on vk.com.  He put up a couple of shocking posts that Russia fact was losing the war and that the war effort was being betrayed by Russian oligarchs".

Russia already firmly occupies, what, about roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory. And it looks like the defenders are making very little if any inroads on those defenses, as they continue to be depleted of weapons and manpower that was trained on the fly. What if you see evidence of some serious Russian advances starting soon, would that change your mind about who's really winning, despite what any talking head says?

For example Ritter and others were preaching to the high heavens for some time, that Ukraine couldn't sustain the way they were blowing through artillery shells, and now it's finally admitted that they are all but spent. I've got a feeling there's much more of that to come. Grudgingly of course.



"The next shocking event was Putin's speech to an African peace delegation revealing that the SMO was almost ended in March, 2022 by withdrawing from most of the captured lands in exchange for a Ukraine promise not to join NATO.  He really was going to do this!!  At this point, I felt completely gaslighted over the last nine years".

I don't quite get why this is such a deal breaker. Thinking back to that general time frame, water cooler fodder was telling us that negotiations were impossible, for the simple reason that negotiations were not possible with this mad man. He's going to do what he wants to do to satisfy his territorial blood lust and either we stop him, or he keeps on rolling and other countries are next. You can't talk to him.

Then, we find out the West compelled Zelenskyy to leave a secret negotiating table. This showed me, and it should have shown everyone who cared to see, that the devil incarnate was more than happy to negotiate for what he wants. Now this is important. I don't know what was in that deal that got scrubbed, was it these commentators who demonstrated what was? If so, can we have a peek at the source material to see for ourselves?



"At this point, reading comment on Russell Bentley, I moved on to Rolo and Slavsquat.  Why did I relie on Russell point of view?  He lives in Donetsk and talks with soldiers and commanders and has served on the front lines.  I had to take the jump into a very disillusioned world.  We really are being conned".

I've only listened to three shows total, but that was enough, for a pre determination anyway, that they cover a lot of internal Russian politics of which I have neither the time nor the inclination. Not saying it's bad, but for one I don't have the time nor the motivation to try and learn Russian inside political baseball. And two, in the end, just like in US internal political baseball, all that really matters for the rest of us is the end result. The output.

The other thing I noticed is that a main focus of theirs, is to always paint Putin in as bad of a light as possible. Even Ritter and others give Ukraine its due when they feel they deserve it. These guys seem to give next to nothing, which leads me to ponder there may be ulterior motives in play here beyond calling balls and strikes.

Not necessarily devious motives, just inside baseball bias from commentators like here in the States will be heavily biased towards a president from a different party.
"FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE, WHEREVER IT LEADS" SOCRATES
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#12
OK.  Let's go to another direction.  What would falsify each of our positions.  I'll go first.

My position is that Russian elites of different stripes want the war over.  They don't really care about denazification nor demilitarization of Ukraine, which is why Russia is fighting a non-war.  To carry out the stated goals, the nation would have to mobilize.  Otherwise, trench warfare continues with no end in sight.  The West will just keep adding new wrinkles -- like bringing NATO troops labeled as voluteers.

What falsifies this position.  First, a Big Arrow Russian offensive that goes to the Dniepr River from the North and East.  Second, another Big Arrow that threatens Kiev.  The Ukrainian army has to be crushed and the political center of Ukraine has to be taken out.  Third, the major bridges across the Dniepr have to be destroyed.  

What confirms my position: peace negotiations begin and there is a peace agreement leaving the Kiev government and the military intact.
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
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#13
Interesting idea. Okay, let's do it.

My position is a familiar one. First and foremost the US, seeing its position of all encompassing full spectrum dominance as the world's lone superpower slipping away, is compelled to make some big moves to re-secure that lofty position and keep it that way for a while.

To keep it tight and focused, the 2014 Maidan Coup was designed to secure Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia, ultimately leaving Putin the choice of continuing to allow a civil war on his door step, along with the shelling of civilians and the threat of Ukraine officially becoming a member of NATO with more missiles on his doorstep, or eventually push back. The old rock and hard place. Then, after engaging, the general idea would be that massive sanctions would devastate Russia (ideally with regime change), and NATO's newly built prize army in Ukraine would be an added bludgeon if/when needed.

Once Russia is taken down, eyes turn eastward toward China to take care of business there.



What confirms my position: we all know the US demands to stay on top at all cost, and eyes are already turned eastward, even before the first order of business is taken care of. The US doesn't give a shit about the freedom of anyone in the world, only what any given country has to offer it. That's why we see ghouls like Sen. Lindsay Graham slithering about speaking of Ukraine fighting to the last person is they're provided the weapons, and that's exactly what we're seeing the final stages of.

Also, Russia doesn't need big arrow offensives to prove anything, same as a heavyweight boxer doesn't have to explode on his enemy to win the bout. Ali's "rope a dope" against George Foreman I believe it was, lays out this strategy. allow your enemy to exhaust himself first, THEN, move in for the kill in mop up duty.

And a bonus prediction: most problems the Western propagandists are squawking about that are major problems for Russia, are actually major problems for its own prized proxy army as its knees begin to buckle. Running out of ammo is a shining example of this, with more to come. Remember "Russia is running out of ammo"?

What falsifies my position: well, being that Russia deeply considers this to be an existential threat, to make a peace deal where nothing changes, and they just go home. That would change everything for me, right down to bare bones.
"FOLLOW THE EVIDENCE, WHEREVER IT LEADS" SOCRATES
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#14
Possible mobilization by Russia for defense purposes.  Well ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vdUKT9zv3I
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
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#15
Prigozhin and his Wagner upper staff in including Utkin in explosive plane crash approaching Moscow.  Sure, Ukrainian agents in Africa must have planted the bomb, despite Prigozhin challenging Shoigu and nearly staging a coup in Moscow.  (That dog won't hunt.)  Here is what Rolo says: https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/actu...-of-wagner
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
Reply


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