View Full Version : Ukraine: Elections or Emergency Rule?

Peter Presland
02-01-2010, 05:11 PM
No doubt others have seen this on Global Research: (http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=MOL20100201&articleId=17318)

I'm drawing attention to it 6 days in advance of the run-off election because it strikes me as a solid piece of analysis and I'll be VERY surprised indeed if the run off does not produce serious unrest and the sort of denouement the article envisages. I monitor Rick Rozov's Yahoo Group (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/stopnato/) 'Stop NATO' and his much lower traffic blog (http://rickrozoff.wordpress.com/). The volume of posts on Yahoo is generally about 20+ per day - mainly in the form of links to Russian/Ukrainian/ Georgian and Central Asian publication stories. From the perspective of anyone hoping against hope for signs of a saner world emerging, they make thoroughly depressing reading. They make it crystal clear that, far from being slowed by present and pending economic disasters, the US/UK/NATO drive for Global 'Full Spectrum Dominance' and a single world order effectively dictated by the West, is actually accelerating. Western military and diplomatic initiatives are pressing relentlessly almost everywhere you look - especially including the Black Sea, Ukraine and Georgia.

IMO, the upshot of all this for the Ukrainian election process is that the effective reversal of the 'Orange Revolution' (which is what the defeat of that beautifully photo-genic Tymoshenko would mean) will be fought with every possible dirty trick in the book. The polls are clear enough - she WILL be defeated - but given the critical implications of that for those NWO plans, it quite simply cannot be allowed to happen.

I expect fireworks and I therefore expect this thread to be active well beyond next Sunday.

I sincerely hope I turn out to be wrong.

The Internet abounds with forecasts concerning the second round runoff in Ukraine's presidential elections. Public opinion polls suggest that Yanukovich's victory is imminent, and the majority of experts seem to agree with the prediction. The natural question in the context is: given that from the outset the Orange Revolution in Ukraine prevailed as the result of the unconstitutional annulling of the former run-off outcome, can we expect compliance with democratic norms this time? Chances are too high that ballots will be counted by Yu. Tymoshenko's campaign managers. The trajectory of her ascension to power was too tricky and the West's investments in the Orange project – too serious to believe that she has no Plan B for the runoff. When the preliminary results of the first round were announced, Tymoshenko immediately responded by charging that mass rigging had taken place in South-East Ukraine. She is a priori determined not to admit to being defeated and will seize every opportunity to derail the elections by instigating mass falsifications, provocations, mass protest rallies, and court hearings.

It became widely known that about a thousand Georgian citizens posing as observers landed in Ukraine on the eve of the elections. They will launch provocations and attempt to destabilize the elections in Donetsk, the main city of the pro-Russian South West Ukraine where Yanukovich enjoys practically undivided support. The relatively quiet conduct of the Georgian “visitors” during the first round of the elections only makes one await an escalation during the runoff. Ukrainian nationalist groups will likely contribute, and the conflicts may take a violent turn. Under the scenario, Ukraine will face an internal schism regardless of the outcome since the legitimacy of the new President will be open to controversy. The imposition of Tymoshenko's victory would be tantamount to direct suppression of the will of the majority of Ukraine's constituency.

The Regions Party press release says: “We have reliable information about the plans to destabilize the already complicated situation in the country. We will continue sharing this information with the public and resisting the implementation of the plans”. Director of the Ukraine Department of the CIS Countries Institute V. Kornilov expressed the same view: “In case Tymoshenko loses, she will nevertheless claim that she has won. We must be ready to see the main battle take place not at polling stations but in courts and in Kyiv's main square”.

Tymoshenko will not recognize her defeat on February 7. This is the first conclusion. However, there is yet another potential scenario which carries the risk of broader destabilization – the introduction of the emergency rule in Ukraine.

The second conclusion is that the outgoing President Yushchenko gave his support to his foe, Prime Minister Tymoshenko. For a limited period of time, the Orange Revolution leaders stopped warring to jointly confront Yanukovich in the runoff. Yushchenko's support for Tymoshenko is not limited to useless calls to vote for her as the candidate representing the smaller evil. The measures taken by president-eject Yushchenko are clearly aimed at promoting the common Orange cause. He sided with Tymoshenko in the conflict over the January 25 seizure of the Ukraine Publishers plant. Police master Yu. Lutsenko is regarded as Tymoshenko's ally. The police is patrolling the perimeter of the plant while Yushchenko's Presidential Security Service is controlling the printing of the ballots. Large numbers of uncounted ballots can thus be printed and injected during the runoff.

It is not Tymoshenko that Yushchenko is working for, and chances are the latter will emerge as the winner from the brewing conflict instead of the former. There is a high probability that the elections in Ukraine will end with the introduction of the emergency rule and the prolongation of Yushchenko's presidential term. Massive falsifications and violations by both sides and clashes – ethnic and political – in the Crimea or elsewhere would provide Yushchenko with a pretext for indefinitely extending his term as the guarantor of the Constitution. Efforts have been made in Ukraine to probe into the public reaction to the establishment of “the dictatorship of law” by the law-enforcement agencies. In November, 2009 a major upheaval was caused by the interviews on the issue given by former army intelligence chief and deputy director of security service A. Skipalski.

Ukrainian nationalists openly espouse the plan in their blogs. A typical post read: “I vote for Tymoshenko in the hope that either she wins and a pro-Russian criminal will not become our President or she loses by a minimal margin and take the case to court if not start fighting. Then the current President will have to disqualify both candidates and impose an emergency rule to avoid bloodshed”.

The implementation of the scenario would require a serious armed backing, but in this respect Yushchenko's resources are limited, which must be the key argument against the plan. The security service has no major armed units (except for a special forces crack team which counts a relatively small number of servicemen). The Ukrainian army is weak and Yushchenko can hardly expect loyalty from it. The police and the internal troops have the largest and most combat-ready forces, but the police territorial divisions are mostly under the de facto control of regional elites. As the result, Ukrainian nationalist groups – quite considerable across the country - are the main force at Yushchenko's disposal.

There is almost no doubt that guerrillas from the ranks of Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar nationalists will be employed to provoke armed clashes in the Crimea and in Sevastopol. Provocations in the Crimea may be cited to justify expelling the Russian Navy from its Sevastopol base and declaring the state of emergency. Indicatively, Yushchenko said that the recently inaugurated Russian copter-carrying ship would be used by Russia to occupy the Crimea. In such a case, Yushchenko's claim that as the guarantor of the constitution he is trying to prevent the disintegration of the politically divided Ukrainian society can be reinforced by invoking the threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Magda Hassan
02-01-2010, 09:13 PM
Thanks for posting this Peter. I concur with you on both counts. About the depressing but valuable reading of the Stop-NATO list and that the election in the Ukraine shows a comprehensive rejection of the shock doctrine and forced NATO incorporation.

Peter Presland
02-07-2010, 07:31 PM
All the exit polls have Yanukovich ahead by a wide margin - in line with pre-election polls. Predictably enough, Flaxen-braided-hair Beauty Tymoshenko indicates she will be a bad loser.

If Yanukovich is confirmed then all talk of Ukrainian accession to NATO stops and Western plans for domination of the Black Sea take a serious hit - as do its rangy, swaggering dealings in the Caucasus and Central Asia generally.

Stand by for the fireworks

This from Reuters: (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61520W20100207?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F +US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Reader)

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich won Sunday's election for president, exit polls said, but likely challenges to results from defeated candidate Yulia Tymoshenko could paralyze the beleaguered country for weeks.
If confirmed, a Yanukovich victory could prompt legal challenges and street protests from Tymoshenko and delay Ukraine's chances of repaying over $100 billion of foreign debt and nursing its sickly economy back to health after a 15 percent collapse last year.
Yanukovich, 59, a beefy ex-mechanic who wants better ties with Moscow, staged a remarkable comeback from a former election disgrace to lead Sunday's runoff vote with 49.8 percent, according to pollsters ICTV.
Former gas tycoon and serving premier Tymoshenko, who led crowds onto the streets in 2004 to strip Yanukovich of victory after a fraudulent election, trailed Sunday with 45.2 percent.
Two other exit polls also pointed to Yanukovich winning.
The exit polls came as voting ended in snowy, sub-zero temperatures in this country of 46 million, and protests from Tymoshenko's camp about alleged violations of election rules began. Official results were expected during Sunday night.
"The involvement of the court is possible, but the huge margin which Yanukovich has cannot be canceled by any court," said close Yanukovich aide Boris Kolesnikov after the exit polls were published.
A Yanukovich win would also mark the end of the country's pro-Western 2004 Orange Revolution, co-led by Tymoshenko and serving President Viktor Yushchenko, and could move the country back toward its former master Russia.
Yushchenko was eliminated from voting in the first round of the election after coming fifth. He led a series of bitter personal attacks on his former ally Tymoshenko.
Sunday's vote appeared to reflect a widespread feeling among Ukrainians that the Orange Revolution failed to deliver prosperity or stability and led to squabbling and crisis.
Voters were unenthusiastic about either candidate but seemed to feel Yanukovich, a former premier who stressed the fight against poverty in his campaign, had the best chance of restoring order.
"We lost five years of our lives thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko," said Oleg Nochvyn, a miner in his 50s in the eastern region of Donetsk.
"For five years they were promising us -- tomorrow will be better. Well, I get up the next day and it's worse than the day before ... Under Viktor Fyodorovich (Yanukovich) we had everything -- economic growth, everything was getting better."
The economy has been battered by a decline in the value of Ukraine's steel and chemicals exports that has hammered the hryvnia currency, slashed budget revenues and undermined the domestic banking system.
"I am sure that the Ukrainian nation deserves a better life," a smiling Yanukovich said casting his ballot. "That is why I have voted for good changes, for stability and for a strong Ukraine."
Regardless of the outcome of Sunday's election, squabbling and intrigue were set to continue.
Before polls closed, Tymoshenko's camp said it would contest results in around 1,000 polling stations in the eastern Donetsk region, the industrial power base of Yanukovich.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksander Turchynov, Tymoshenko's campaign chief, complained of multiple voting and bribery.
Investors want a new president who will be able to resume borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF put lending on hold in frustration at political squabbling and concerns about budget spending.
The 2010 budget has still not been approved and the country has had no confirmed finance minister since February 2009, when veteran Viktor Pynzenyk resigned saying he could no longer do the job amid the political infighting in Kiev.
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Solovyov (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=dmitrysolovyov&) in Kiev and Lina Kushch in Donetsk; Writing by Michael Stott (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=michael.stott&) in Moscow; editing by Ralph Boulton (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=ralph.boulton&))

Peter Presland
02-09-2010, 07:36 AM
The silence from Ukraine is truly deafening.

Tymoshenko postponed her press conference scheduled for Monday. Muted claims of inevitable victory for Yanukovich with the electoral commission having provided numbers for percentage of votes remaining to be counted which, as of about mid-day Monday was just less than the gap between the two camps.

Results originally scheduled to be announced Sunday night.

But as of 07:30 GMT Tuesday morning, still nothing, with Al Jazeera, Eurasia Net, Reuters, AP and Rick Rozov's Yahoo list all silent.

I don't know how to interpret the silence. Clearly there is skulduggery afoot - the natural state of affairs with such momentous issues at stake for both Russia and US/NATO (let alone Ukraine itself) - but my crystal ball has gone cloudy.

My suspicion is that, with enthusiasm for street protests by either side drained, the status-quo may just get away with stealing it.

As usual I sincerely hope I am wrong.


Also, from my extensive monitoring of the UK and US MSM over the past 3 days, I have yet to see a single mention of the elections in Ukraine - strange eh?

Magda Hassan
02-09-2010, 07:51 AM
I'm waiting with bated breath too Peter. Yanukovich was the winner but there is as yet no concession from Timoshenko. No doubt much horse trading and shifting of money to the Swiss bank accounts in the mean time. Not to mention running through the colour charts for a brand new shiny colour for all the t shirts, bandanas and posters to be printed now that Orange is out of fashion.

Magda Hassan
02-09-2010, 07:56 AM
I'm looking forward to how he deals with the IMF and other vultures. Iceland may have a partner in default.

David Guyatt
02-09-2010, 08:39 AM
Peter said:

Also, from my extensive monitoring of the UK and US MSM over the past 3 days, I have yet to see a single mention of the elections in Ukraine - strange eh?

It realy is most curious how our beloved media can sometimes not talk with one unified voice when the occasion demands. Just as they can also talk with a unified voice when required.

Must be something to do with the Newspaper Publishers Association?

David Guyatt
02-09-2010, 08:49 AM
Just to prove us wrong, the BBC strike!


Ukraine awaits Tymoshenko's move


Ukraine is waiting for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to either contest results from Sunday's presidential election, or accept defeat and quit.

Pro-Moscow opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych appears to have narrowly won the poll, which monitors have praised.

But she has stayed tight-lipped amid calls by international observers for a peaceful transition of power.

Mrs Tymoshenko is expected to hold a news conference later, after twice postponing addressing media on Monday.

"For everyone in Ukraine, this election was a victory," the observers, led by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said in a statement.

Richard Galpin, BBC News, Kiev
Will Yulia Tymoshenko accept the election result or not?

Will she or won't she pursue her political ambitions through the courts or in protest action on the streets?

It is not often that the woman with the famous golden braid, whose glamour permeated the Orange Revolution five years ago, retreats into the shadows and maintains a strict silence.

But this is a moment of truth for her and she has a tough set of options.

Mrs Tymoshenko, 49, accused her rival of foul play on Sunday evening, but did not repeat an earlier threat to call her supporters out on to the streets in a repeat of the 2004 Orange Revolution that thrust her to power.

The BBC's Richard Galpin in Kiev says there are very few who believe Mrs Tymoshenko could muster any serious number of protestors to back her cause.

And she is under pressure to make a decision sooner rather than later, he added.

Mr Yanukovych was a presidential candidate in the 2004 election, but was swept aside when the vote was found to have been rigged in his favour.

On Monday, his supporters gathered in front of the Central Election Commission in victory, but also to protest about the failure of Mrs Tymoshenko to accept defeat and resign as prime minister.

Russian Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol, Crimea
Most Europe-bound Russian gas piped through Ukraine
Large ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority in Crimea and industrialised east
Strong nationalist, pro-Western sentiment in west
Aspirations for EU and Nato membership, though latter strongly opposed by Russia
The EU foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, said the EU was prepared to work with the new president.

"The European Union remains committed to deepening the relationship with Ukraine and supporting it in implementing its reform agenda.

"It looks forward to working with the new president to this end."

With more than 99% of votes counted, Mr Yanukovych was estimated to be ahead on some 48.83% of the vote, while Mrs Tymoshenko had around 45.59%.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko lost in the first round of the election last month, coming in fifth place.

Peter Presland
02-09-2010, 11:38 AM
Movement at last - and thoroughly predictable it is too:

This from Al Jazeera:

Tymoshenko 'to argue Ukraine vote'

The parliamentary faction of Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's prime minister, has claimed widespread fraud in the country's presidential election and said it would challenge the result in court.
Serhiy Sobolev, a member of the Tymoshenko bloc, told a meeting on Tuesday that Sunday's vote "displayed a cynical violation of Ukranian law" by the teams of Viktor Yanukovych, who led polls by a narrow three per cent.
"Consequently, the Tymoshenko bloc announces that we will defend in the courts our right, and the rights of our citizens, to honest and transparent elections," the Reuters news agency quoted him as saying.
According to local media, Tymoshenko has refused to concede defeat and told officials that she will "never recognise" the legitimacy of the election.
But Ukrainskaya Pravda, an online newspaper, said a significant section of her party, including the deputy parliament speaker, were hoping to persaude the prime minister to acknowledge Yanukovych's victory.
'Honest choice'
Tymoshenko and her aides had alleged significant violations by the Yanukovych camp in the run-up to the vote and the prime minister had warned of mass protests if she detected fraud. However, her party has made no mention of holding demonstrations since the election results were announced. Thousands of Yanukovych supporters have rallied outside Ukraine's central election commission in a bid to protect the result of the election.
"We want Yanukovych to make our life better, that he comes to power and improves our lives," a woman from Kiev, Ukraine's capital, told Reuters "We want to protect the honest choice of the people, we are standing here for Viktor Yanukovych, Viktor Yanukovych is our president," another woman said.
A legal challenge to the narrow margin of victory could deny Ukraine a swift return to stability and rattle financial markets.
The country of 46 million people has been battered by the economic crisis and badly needs to restart talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $16.4bn bail-out package.
That's a pretty muted response though. Hardly the fighting talk that preceded the challenges that annulled Yuschenko's win last time. Still I reckon he'd be wise not to underestimate her and her backers. Like I said earlier, they WILL be bad losers.

Magda Hassan
02-09-2010, 11:44 AM
Ahhhh.... she's chosen a new colour for her outfit.

Magda Hassan
02-11-2010, 01:11 AM
U.S. Campaign Advisors Influence Ukraine's Election

Source: Financial Times, January 27, 2010 (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/827bd81a-0b91-11df-8232-00144feabdc0.html) Citizens in the Ukraine (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Ukraine) are starting to see American-style campaign sloganeering and other tactics in the race between their Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, and her main rival, Viktor Yanukovich, for the office of President. Tymoshenko's banners, billboards and posters bear slogans like "They talk, she works," "They promise, she works," and "They betray, she works." The ad campaign is significant because it is the product of the American political consulting firm AKP&D Message & Media (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=AKP%26D_Message_%26_Media), the company founded by President Obama's (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Barack_Obama) chief advisor, David Axelrod (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=David_Axelrod). Axelrod's son, Michael, still works for the firm. Mr. Yanukovich is being advised by Paul Manafort (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Paul_J._Manafort,_Jr.), a Republican strategist from the firm Davis, Manafort & Freedman, Inc. (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Davis,_Manafort_%26_Freedman,_Inc. ), which has advised several U.S. presidents. Ukraine's outgoing president, Victor Yushenko, received American-style help and campaign advice from Hillary Clinton's campaign strategist, Mark Penn (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Mark_Penn), who was president of the big American PR firm, Burson-Marsteller (http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Burson-Marsteller). The Ukraine is a gold mine for big American political firms, since it is one of the largest countries in Europe, has obscure and weakly-enforced campaign laws, and the major Ukrainian political parties are backed by big businesses, with money to finance professional campaigns.


Peter Presland
02-13-2010, 09:04 AM
The continuing silence over the Ukrainian election result is spooky - that's probably the right word in more ways than one too - a bit like the silence that reigned post-polling in last year's Afghan presidential election.

Considering the policy and geo-political alignment gulf that separates Tymoshenko (who remains in-post as prime minister) and Yanukovich the new President elect (as yet to be conceded by Tymoshenko in spite of all observers including the EU and US indicating that the election was pretty much flawless in its conduct - should that be ringing alarm bells????), there are clearly frantic manoeuvrings going on out of sight.

And now this from Interfax: (http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?pg=2&id=146860)

NATO thanks Ukraine for readiness to allot troops for Response Force

KYIV. Feb 12 (Interfax) - NATO thanks Ukraine for its willingness to allot its troops for the NATO Response Force, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Giampaolo Di Paola said while visiting the Ukrainian National Defense Academy on Friday.
NATO appreciates Ukraine's decision regarding the engagement of Ukrainian armed forces for the NATO Response Force, Di Paola said.
NATO also praises Ukraine for its preparedness to allot a radiation, chemical, and biological protection unit to the NATO Response Force in 2010 and engage military transport aircraft for strategic transportation, Di Paola said.
The alliance will also welcome any other contribution that Ukraine might make to its Response Force, he said.
Looks like business as usual to me with nary a (reported) murmur from Yanukovich. But then appearances can be VERY deceptive.

Magda Hassan
02-13-2010, 11:54 PM
:playingball: It's mine, all mine, and I'm not sharing it with you!
One possibility is that this will lead to a civil war and division of the country along national and/or political lines. This will still bring NATO to the new 'Russian' border. The west will be pleased with that outcome and a divided and weak balkanised Ukraine to play with in future.

Ukraine: Tymoshenko vows to contest election result

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47296000/jpg/_47296257_tymoschenkoap226b.jpg Yulia Tymoshenko said she would not call for street protests

The defeated candidate in Ukraine's recent presidential election run-off, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, has vowed to challenge the result in court.
In her first comments since Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner, Ms Tymoshenko alleged widespread fraud and said he was not legitimately elected.
Mr Yanukovych has called on his rival to abandon her protests and resign.
His margin of victory was only 3.48% in a poll that international monitors said was an impressive display of democracy.
"I want to clearly state: Yanukovych is not our president," Ms Tymoshenko said in a live televised broadcast.
"Whatever happens in future, he will never become the legitimately elected president of Ukraine."
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gif http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gif Not going to court would mean giving up Ukraine to criminals without a fight http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif

Yulia Tymoshenko


Fears of instability in Ukraine (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8506491.stm)

But she said she would not call people on to the streets to protest, as she had done after the 2004 presidential election.
"I will not call another Maidan [Independence Square demonstration] and will not allow public protests," she said.
Mr Yanukovych was pronounced the victor six years ago, only for the result to be overruled because of vote-rigging. The Orange Revolution eventually brought Ms Tymoshenko's erstwhile ally, President Viktor Yushchenko, to power.
The prime minister said more than a million votes, which she said were decisive to the outcome, were invalid.
"With all this proof, I have taken the only possible decision: to challenge the results of the election in court. I will defend our state and the choice we made on the basis of legal documents," she said.
"Not going to court would mean giving up Ukraine to criminals without a fight."
On Wednesday, Mr Yanukovych demanded his rival resign as prime minister and go into opposition.
"I want to remind Ms Tymoshenko that the basis of democracy is the will of the people. Democratic leaders always accept the results of the elections. The country does not need a new crisis," he said.
The BBC's Daria Merkusheva in Kiev says Ukraine's Central Election Commission is expected to confirm Mr Yanukovych as president-elect early next week, after which the legal challenges are likely to start.
Ukraine has been in political deadlock for several years, undermining its ability to deal with a severe economic crisis. Analysts say a challenge by Mrs Tymoshenko would prolong the instability.
With Mrs Tymoshenko still heading the government, stalemate is likely to continue. Mr Yanukovych has said he wants to form a new coalition, and may try to call snap parliamentary elections.

Peter Presland
02-14-2010, 08:00 AM
One possibility is that this will lead to a civil war and division of the country along national and/or political lines. This will still bring NATO to the new 'Russian' border. The west will be pleased with that outcome and a divided and weak balkanised Ukraine to play with in future.

That pretty much chimes with the piece that started this thread a week before the elections and I agree, it is still very much a possibility. Western covert doctrine is to foment division of the most brazen and viscous types as means to influence and eventual control and as a 'bad-loser' way of scorching the earth so to speak. It's been played out time and time again ad nauseam all over the world, so much so that it must be blindingly obvious to ANYONE aspiring to non-Western aligned power by now.Frustrating that doctrine and strategy is quite another matter though. The US/NATO axis, with its global hard power/surveillance, economic (waning hopefully) and covert ops projection capabilities is pre-eminently in the position of being able to make offers that cannot be refused - to use that telling old 'Godfather' analogy.

I know how words and tones can be twisted by the press but the twist to those Magda posted are unusual. Tymoshenko comes across as petulant and divisive with her 'surrendering the country to criminals' remark. Whereas Yanukovich, whilst forthright, appears the statesmanlike one.

I still think this whole issue is pivotal for NATO. Cursory scanning of Rick Rozoff's 'Stop Nato' Yahoo list shows that it is chock full of reports - and I mean 5 - 10 per day from Russia and all over the Caucasus and Central Asia - with stories of NATO's push to deploy missiles in the Black Sea and generally dominate it. Hardly any of it appears in the Western MSM but that in itself tells a story.

Magda Hassan
02-14-2010, 12:31 PM
Another thing on the NATO wish list is to get rid of the Russian naval base which is leased till 2017. Yanukovich wants to renew it. The Gas Queen wants it gone. NATO would love to deny Russia any home in the Black Sea to the Russians. Never mind that the base has been there since the 18th century. The locals chased off the 'visiting' US and NATO ships after the Georgian war. There are the Tatars, amongst others, to play with and get them to secede plus the Islamic card. For NATO the outcome is crucial.

Magda Hassan
02-20-2010, 02:11 PM
The Gas Queen has called off the election challenge. :fight:

Ukraine Prime Minister Drops Election Challenge

By CLIFFORD J. LEVY (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/l/clifford_j_levy/index.html?inline=nyt-per)
Published: February 20, 2010
MOSCOW — Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/world/europe/06ukraine.html) of Ukraine (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/ukraine/index.html?inline=nyt-geo) effectively conceded the presidential election on Saturday by withdrawing her legal challenge (http://www.tymoshenko.ua/en/article/uv4w2uwz) to the results, saying that she did not believe that she would get a fair hearing.
Valentin Ogirenko/European Pressphoto Agency
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko attended a Supreme Administrative Court session in Kiev on Saturday before accusing the high court of prejudice against her.

Her decision clears the way for the inauguration on Thursday of the winner, Viktor F. Yanukovich (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/15/world/europe/15ukraine.html), the opposition leader, capping a comeback (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/08/world/europe/08ukraine.html) for him. Mr. Yanukovich was the loser in the 2004 Orange Revolution, when he was criticized as a Kremlin pawn who did not want Ukraine to become more democratic and pro-Western.
Mr. Yanukovich has sought to refashion his image in recent years, vowing to improve relations with both the European Union (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/e/european_union/index.html?inline=nyt-org) and Russia.
It was not immediately clear on Saturday whether the court in Kiev (http://www.kmu.gov.ua/control/en/publish/article?art_id=61738051&cat_id=32594) would formally allow Ms. Tymoshenko to cancel her appeal. It may go ahead with the proceedings and issue a ruling against her.
Speaking at the court, Ms. Tymoshenko was defiant, and her party said it would boycott Mr. Yanukovich’s inauguration.
“Sooner or later, an honest prosecutor’s office and an honest court will assess that Yanukovich was not elected president of Ukraine, and that the will of the people was fabricated,” she said.
The end of Ms. Tymoshenko’s challenge is expected to bring about a relatively peaceful transfer of power in Ukraine, a little more than five years after the mass Orange protests broke out over the last disputed presidential election.
Still, Ms. Tymoshenko, an Orange leader, remains prime minister, and has rejected Mr. Yanukovich’s demand that she resign. He intends to put together a coalition in parliament to dismiss her or, if that fails, to call parliamentary elections, which could create more political instability.
Ms. Tymoshenko had refused to concede (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/world/europe/14ukraine.html) the Feb. 7 elections (http://www.cvk.gov.ua/), which she lost by 3.48 percentage points, asserting that Mr. Yanukovich had won (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/15/world/europe/15ukraine.html) only because his campaign had engaged in widespread fraud. Yanukovich aides had described her accusations as phony and desperate.
European election monitors had called the election honest and fair (http://www.osce.org/item/42681.html), and many world leaders, including President Obama (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/barack_obama/index.html?inline=nyt-per), have congratulated (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/12/world/europe/12ukraine.html) Mr. Yanukovich.
In announcing her legal challenge, Ms. Tymoshenko had promised not to organize demonstrations, acknowledging that Ukrainians were disillusioned from years of political turmoil.
As it began evaluating Ms. Tymoshenko’s case on Friday, the Higher Administrative Court in Kiev rejected her petition to scrutinize documents from election districts in the Crimean Peninsula, a Yanukovich stronghold, and also to question election and law-enforcement officials.
On Saturday, Ms. Tymoshenko went to the court and announced that she did not see any point in continuing, suggesting that the judges were biased against her.
“It became clear that the court is not out to establish the truth,” she said.
She also attacked the court for not permitting the proceedings to be broadcast.
Ms. Tymoshenko had earned fame in the Orange Revolution, which occurred after supporters of Mr. Yanukovich were accused of stealing the 2004 presidential elections. A court threw out the results, and Viktor A. Yushchenko (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/y/viktor_a_yushchenko/index.html?inline=nyt-per) was victorious in a new election over Mr. Yanukovich.
Ms. Tymoshenko had charged that with the 2010 presidential election, Mr. Yanukovich’s campaign had once again relied upon dirty tricks. But analysts had indicated that Ms. Tymoshenko was unlikely to prevail in court, given the margin of Mr. Yanukovich’s victory and the election monitors’ assessment.

Peter Presland
02-20-2010, 02:35 PM
I thought I'd posted the al Jazeera report (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/02/201022092523387839.html) on her withdrawing the legal challenge about an hour ago.

Must have failed to hit the post button after reviewing several times - oops.

Aside from noting her now familiar 'little girl tantrum' demeanour - as in her "we do not see sense in further proceedings in the case," to the court, followed by "It has become obvious that it is not a court and it is not justice." to waiting reporters - my main comment concerned the implications for US/NATO.

The relentless pursuit of the Black Sea as US/NATO controlled lake does now appear to be in need of a re-think.

It's high time something came along to challenge it and this may well be it. The tide about to turn maybe?

Let's hope so.

Magda Hassan
02-21-2010, 05:50 AM
She wont concede. She is too busy sowing doubt and dissension. That will be the tactic for dealing with Yanukovich.
Ukraine's Tymoshenko set to fight on

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47342000/jpg/_47342821_008791334-1.jpg Yulia Tymoshenko is refusing to go despite requests from the new president

By Dariya Merkusheva
BBC News, Ukraine

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko withdrew her appeal case against the elections results from the Supreme Administrative court and the court has closed the case. But she has not conceded.
She said once again that Viktor Yanukovich will never be considered Ukraine's legitimately elected president.
This is in stark contrast to her fellow Orange Revolutionary - incumbent Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.
On Saturday he finally congratulated his long-time rival, Mr Yanukovich, on a legitimate victory.
Sergei Mishchenko, an MP from Mrs Tymoshenko's party, has said their party is planning to boycott the inauguration ceremony scheduled for 25 February.
He also added Mrs Tymoshenko is not giving in, she will not recognise the elections results and she will continue to work as prime minister.
Mr Yanukovich has asked Mrs Tymoshenko to step down from her post on several occasions. And she has said that she will not.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47342000/jpg/_47342855_008745496-1.jpg President-elect Yanukovich's Regions Party might seek a new coalition

As president, Mr Yanukovich does not have the right to fire or to appoint a prime minister - that is up to Ukraine's parliament.
At the moment Mrs Tymoshenko's party is still part of the parliamentary coalition, but negotiations are under way to form a new coalition based on Mr Yanukovich's Regions Party.
One of the leaders of the Regions Party, Nikolai Azarov, speaking to Ukrainian TV channel Inter, said it was fantastic to even consider the possibility of Mrs Tymoshenko remaining in her post for much longer.
But no-one here in Ukraine thinks it will be an easy task to remove her.
Country in limbo
Once MPs form a new coalition they are likely to vote Mrs Tymoshenko's government out, but until a new government is formed - and that can take weeks in the current political situation - Mrs Tymoshenko will remain as acting prime minister under President Yanukovich.
Analysts agree that little will be achieved in those weeks, and the country will remain in limbo.
Of course, these coalition talks depend on many factors, on internal politics and favours.
If they fail, Ukrainians will have to vote once again - in early parliamentary elections.
Either way, despite peoples' hopes, the economic situation is not likely to improve drastically.
Last year the country's economy shrank by 15%.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47342000/jpg/_47342876_008784902-1.jpg Mr Yanukovich vowed to unite the country

Mr Yanukovich has promised to improve the lives of those most disadvantaged - state workers and pensioners.
During his election campaigning he also promised to create more jobs.
But with a government run by his rival he will experience difficulties in fulfilling any of his promises.
Mrs Tymoshenko will also not be able to push any of her priorities.
The country is still living according to last year's budget. It is even unclear where the money for the inauguration is to come from.
Ukraine is also waiting for the much needed last tranche of the $16.4bn (£10.6bn) bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund.
This payment was suspended last year - until after the presidential elections with a specific demand from the IMF for political stability and a democratic transfer of power.
However, Mr Yanukovich will have to consider what his rival stands for. Half the country did, after all, vote for Mrs Tymoshenko, and he won by a small margin.
He promised to unite the country - the Russian-speaking east and south that backed him overwhelmingly, and the Western Ukrainian-speaking half that backed Mrs Tymoshenko.
But no-one is really certain how he will achieve that.
Just after the elections Mr Yanukovich said he was still undecided whether to visit Russia or an EU country first, but now the Kremlin is saying Mr Yanukovich will go to Moscow in early March.
There are no announcements about a visit to a Western European capital yet.

Peter Presland
02-21-2010, 07:49 AM
She wont concede. She is too busy sowing doubt and dissension. That will be the tactic for dealing with Yanukovich.
I think you're right Magda.

Where the West cannot secure a government that 'sees things its way' outright, the tactic is ALWAYS to beaver away at sowing division, cultivating dissent and encouraging/financing/agent-provocateuring outright violence.

No doubt it would have been nice to have the 'Orange Revolution' consolidated and the NATO ranks swelled further, but my guess is that, by itself, this is probably not that much of a setback. Probably more significant for its effects on Georgia and prospects for it encouraging others in the region opposed to US/NATO domination - a niggling and irritating worry in other words.