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Thread: The Battle for Novorussiya

  1. #11


    Quote Originally Posted by Lauren Johnson View Post
    In a hacked document from Ukrainian SBU (equivalent to FBI) head Valentin Nalyvaichenko, dated December 25th, 2014, attacks on civilians in towns occupied by the Ukrainian army were ordered. (Note: this is in the Ukrainian Government controlled area, not in the rebel-held area.) The document states that patriotic nationalist officers were to set up temporary artillery positions and kill civilians.
    What a charming bunch of evil, murderous bastards. Par for the course, I suppose.
    The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
    Carl Jung - Aion (1951). CW 9, Part II: P.14

  2. #12

    Default Update 1/16

    Minsk meeting for 1/16: Novorussiya reps showed up the whereas the Ukrainian reps did not.

    Another indication of very low morale of UAF forces written on on 1/14:

    January 15, 2015
    Translated from Russian by J. Hawk
    “Counter-terror” fighters acknowledge they
    are the “cannon fodder” of the Donetsk Airport.

    The Ukrainian volunteers picketing the building of the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers complain they are treated as “cannon fodder” at the Donetsk airport, and that their supporting artillery is almost out of ammunition.

    “Right now we have several wounded,” told the journalists Vladislav Goranin, representing the OUN Battalion, part of which is located at the airport, while the rest in the adjacent town of Peski. We have no killed, but the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, unfortunately, does. The people in the government, judging by everything, do not understand the seriousness of what’s happening. We need to end this senseless ceasefire. We are cannon fodder, tinned meat. Not soldiers, it would seem.”

    Goranin also claimed that the fighters are being supplied only by volunteers.

    Another volunteer going by the call-sign of “Lemko” and citing troops located in Peski, said that during the engagements of January 13, the Ukrainian artillery fired in an unknown direction and only for half an hour.

    “The ammunition supply situation is very poor,” added Lemko. “It is almost entirely exhausted. If this continues, they will not hold on for long.”

    (Published January 14 , 2015)

    Translator’s Note:

    This sounds like a confirmation of the doubts concerning Poroshenko’s claims about Ukraine’s ability to restore its forces to combat readiness. No doubt these very visible events in which Poroshenko turned over “new” or “restored” equipment to the Ukrainian military had as much to do with attempts to boost his troops’ morale than with actually improving their combat effectiveness. Judging by this and other reports, the Novorossia militia had decided to call Poroshenko’s bluff.
    Such comments also are consistent with Semenchenko’s claims that the troops’ morale and patience are at their breaking points. This gives Poroshenko an incentive to attempt another offensive operation even though the Ukrainian military does not seem prepared to carry it out. Either way, the loyalty of the troops, especially of the volunteer units, cannot be taken for granted for much longer by the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief.
    P.S. On Thursday, January 15, DPR flag was raised above Donetsk Airport as NAF reported about its capture
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

  3. #13


    From Mark Sleboda, Facebook.

    A Grim and Fatalist Post-Holiday Sitrep for the Dream that Was "NovoRossiya" and the People of the Donbass:

    Russia will obviously not allow the West-backed and installed Kiev regime to conquer the rump "NovoRossiya" by military means. This latest "offensive" of theirs will either peter out quickly or will end very badly for them if it expands in the Spring.

    But the NAF is even less a coherent and organized force than the UAF/batallions (and that's saying a lot because Kiev has very limited control of its warlords and their death squads ie the "battalions) - with no real offensive capability or logistics network. They are only really a defensive force thus far, though it must be said competent at that. The Kremlin, further, purposefully and when necessary, brutally, weeds their leadership and retards their supplies and growth to make sure they cannot become truly independent of either Russia or Ukraine.

    The Kremlin has gone out of their way to prevent the NAF from seizing even the rest of Donetsk or Lugansk Republics, letting them keep only this tiny rump principality which is only a third of the territory of the respective two Republics. They wouldn't even let the NAF take Donetsk airport for over 7 months. This was obviously a signal to the West of their limited intentions and an attempt to prevent the conflict from spiraling into anything bigger. The West either appears to have not gotten that message or completely ignored and taken advantage of it. The people who truly suffered from this policy of the Kremlin's are the people of Donetsk and the rank and file NAF. They have hid and died under regular Putsch regime shelling directed through the airport into the residential districts of the city since the summer.

    The NAF being "let off the leash" and, after far more of a struggle than it should have been, finally taking their own city's airport tells us two things. First the Kremlin is growing frustrated with both Kiev and the West as negotiations are going nowhere. This is a signal of their discontent, but a very limited one in scope. Second it is painfully obvious that the NAF without greater Russian support than the Russian government has ever given them, or intends to give them (whatever the hysteric and regular pronouncements from Kiev or the Western MSM and governments to the contrary), has NO offensive capability to speak of.

    The Kremlin has no intent to either annex Donetsk and Lugansk and take economic responsibility for them and their people - nor to let them expand and become independent. Novorossiya literally has NO economy at all - nor do they have the ability to develop one without massive outside investment which neither the Kremlin nor the West has any intent of giving them. This is very important as NovoRossiya can NEVER be independent nor is it even sustainable in the medium term without one. There is literally NO money, no paying jobs, no economy. Even the standard of life under Putsch neoliberal "austerity" in Ukraine is far better at this point. The people of Donbass are suffering and the vulnerable literally starving to DEATH, and they cannot continue much longer like this.

    The NovoRossiya "project" was NOT dreamed up in the Kremlin. It was an organic idea with historical roots that grew out of the desires of the people of the Donbass to get out of the post-Maidan Ukrainian madhouse and encouraged by various Eurasianist and nostalgic-Imperial/Orthodox elements of Russian civil society. Perhaps a few in the Kremlin inner circle of the more conservative patriotic bent tried to pick it up and run with it for a while - but it is obvious that for Putin it was never anything more than toy for leverage with the West to force a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. A "bad cop" approach. But it was never more than a bluff - and it appears that the West has (correctly) called him on it - whatever their public rhetoric on the matter to the contrary.

    The Kremlin is very set on forcing rump Donetsk and Lugansk back into Ukraine at some point in the future under federalized conditions that suit the Kremlin's interest and influence. That is no longer enough in the minds of many of the NAF ranks or the people of Donetsk and Lugansk, who, rightly, have no desire to being forced under the Putsch rule or back in the same country with those who have been indiscrimately massacring them in their homes and on their streets for most of the last year (equivalent to asking the Kosovar Albanians to go back to Serbia after being bombed into independence by NATO) - but they may not have a real choice in the matter. The desires of the people of Donbass and the NAF and the interests of the Kremlin widely diverge on this. IMHO the Kremlin is playing a very cynical and coldly pragmatic game with the people of the Donbass. It further says a lot that they still prefer even that to rule or cleansing by Kiev. Pity the people of Donbass that they are not Crimea. The sad truth is that the people of Donbass want Russia much much more than the Kremlin wants them...

    The Kremlin still keeps the NAF and NovoRossiya firmly under its leash. They truly are not getting much support from the Kremlin beyond that limited military aid assistance preventing them from being further military conquered from Kiev - but they are completely dependent on even that. The people of the Donbass are actually getting very little in the way of economic/humanitarian aid either from the Russian federal govt. The convoys are really a token effort only for PR purposes, and represent only a tiny tiny fraction of what the people of Donbass need or even are actually getting from Russia. The majority of what they are getting comes mostly from either Russian civil society (donations, organizations, the Church, and the Russian Republic's local governments like Kadyrov) or from the native oligarchs of the Donbass like Akhmetov who are still playing a cautious double game to try to come out ahead when this is all over and the dust settles.

    The ONLY hope for NovoRossiya to ever become a real "independent" rump-state protectorate of Russia (like Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria) is from stupidly escalated and protracted military attempts from Kiev to subjugate Donbass, directed and armed by the West. But even then, after what has been going on for last half a year, it is almost impossible to imagine the level of bloodshed and carnage that would be necessary to push the Kremlin past the threshold on that score. So, no, not much hope for the people of "NovoRossiya" at all. Stillborn and still dying...
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

  4. #14


    The cease fire is over, and the NAF is actually on the offensive -- according this source.

    Lugansk area. Since yesterday, active exchange of artillery fire between NAF and UAF has been intensified near Chernukhino and Kamenka. Last night the Ukrainian army was firing back towards residential area of Pervomaisk and Slavyanoserbsk. Ukrainian armed forces destroyed with direct hit the building of emergency station and hospital in Slavyanoserbsk.

    The artillery fire lasted during the whole night. The UAF were firing with MLRS at the Militia’s positions at the 31st road block near Novotoshkovka, and along the line of defence between the 31st and 37th road blocks. Ukrainian army tried to get a passage near Krymskoe, but they were defeated by the Militia. According to the data provided by the LPR, the Militia liberated Novotoshkovka and defeated the surrounded Ukrainian units. For now Ukrainian occupants consolidated their position in Orekhovo-Donetskoe. There is an information about reinforcements of UAF at the 29th road block.

    Last night Ukrainian armed forces also heavily fired Stakhanov and Stanichno-Luganskiy district of Lugansk. There are casualties among civilians and destructions in the residential area.

    The UAF were on offensive near Schastie firing towards the village of Veselaya Gora, but The Militia managed to hold their positions.

    Donetsk area.
    The military units of the 4th mechanized brigade under command of Mozgovoy liberated Redkodub, Polevoe and Novoorlovka, and approached Troitskoe (between Debaltsevo and Popasnaya). Currently, there is fighting in Troitskoe. Yesterday noon, the UAF hit the bus with locals in Dokuchaevsk.

    The UAF were firing at Donetsk from the direcntion of Peski and Avdeevka. According to the data, coming from the DPR Militia, the Ukrainian army is now retreating from Peski. The NAF is holding their fire, providing them with opportunity to leave. Among the retreating fighters, there are paratroopers of the 80th Lvov Air Cavalry Brigade, who under Poroshenko’s order were supposed to fight for the destroyed new terminal of Donetsk airport. The Militia is fighting back against the UAF units near Dzerzhinsk.

    They defeated the 57th Brigade near Gorlovka, but the Ukrainian army resumed heavy firing of the city in the afternoon, intensifying it last night, trying to break through into the city. There was an information about few dwelling houses burnt in result of shelling. Major destructions got the districts of Kurganka, Komsomolets, and Gorlovka Central District. Presumably, there are casualties. People experienced mobile connection outage, there was power shutdown in some districts.

    The Novorossiya troops approached Mariupol and took the footholds, left by Ukrainian fighters after they had been pushed northwards of the town.

    Today the army of Novorossiya, being on the offensive, is slowly approaching Debaltsevo. The Ukrainian troops are continuously firing at Gorlovka, Kieveskiy and Kuibyshevskiy districts of Donetsk.
    Here's a map of the Novorussiya contested conflict zones. For the zoomable version, look here for great detail.

    Attached Images Attached Images
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

  5. #15

    Default It's official: Kiev announces resumption of war

    from RT:
    Ukrainian troops have launched a massive assault on militia-held areas Sunday morning after an order from Kiev, a presidential aide said. The self-proclaimed Donetsk republic’s leader accused Kiev of trying to restart the war.
    The order to launch the offensive was issued early approximately at 6:00 am, according to Yury Biryukov, an aide to President Petro Poroshenko.
    “Today we will show HOW good we are at jabbing in the teeth,” he wrote on his Facebook page, a mode of conveying information favored by many Ukrainian officials.
    In a later post he said: “They are now striking a dot. Uuu…” in a reference to Tochka-U (‘tochka’ means ‘dot’ in Russian), a tactical ballistic missile, one of the most powerful weapons Ukraine so far deployed against rebel forces. ...
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

  6. #16


    SitRep (1/18) from the Saker:

    Things look very bad today and very intensive combat operations, in particular artillery strikes, are reported everywhere in Novorussia. At the very least, in the following locations:

    1) Donetsk Airport: the Ukrainians attacked with a fairly large concentration of armor and under heavy artillery fire. As for tonight (local time) all of these attacks have been successfully repelled but intelligences sources are reporting a sharp rise in the number of tanks and armored vehicles all around the Donestk airport. The Novorussians are expecting attacks from Peski and Avdeevka.

    2) The Ukrainian artillery has opened for almost everywhere along the front. The Ukrainian airforce has also dropped several 500kg bombs from high altitude on the city of Gorlovka.

    3) Novorussian units are returning fire and the outskirts of Mariupol have come under Novorussian artillery attacks.

    4) The Chairman of the Novorussian Parliament, Oleg Tsarev, has declared that his sources indicate that the Ukrainian plan submitted to Poroshenko looked at a spectrum of options: the best one was to totally free Novorussian from all Novorussians, the minimal one was to cut-off Donetsk from Luganks and both of these cities from the Russian border.

    5) Plenty of US made weapons have been recovered in the New Terminal of the Donestk airport.

    6) There are reports that the Ukrainian forces are attempting to encircle Debaltsevo.

    7) Putin's spokesman Dmitrii Peskov has declared that the Ukrainian side had rejected all Russian offers and presented no counter-proposals. He concluded that the Ukrainians have chose the option of going to war.

    8) Please click here for an high res updated map of combats.

    9) The Ukrainians are now accusing the Novorussians of using "super-weapons" in Peski. No, no nuclear devices (as the Ukie defense minister claimed were used south of Lugansk), but heavy-flame throwers of the Buratino TOS-1 type. The Ukies speak of a "bloodbath in Peski" which, as J.Hawk, the translator for ForRuss noticed, is a sure sign of panic.

    10) Initial reports seem to indicate the the Novorussian military has entered the town of Peski.

    11) The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the NAF, General Petrov, has declared that the Ukrainians have resumed ballistic missile strikes and that several Tochka missiles were fired today.

    12) Zakharchenko has declared that "we are now engaged in a heavy counter-attack operation from Mariupol to Gorlovka".


    It appears certain is that Nazi junta as decided to resume combat operations. Whether this is "an" attack or "the" attack remains to be seen, but the fact that ballistic missiles and bombers have been used seem to indicate that this one is qualitatively different. My therefore leaning more towards the "the" attack option.

    The situation around the airport has resulted in many poorly informed comments. The following needs to be clarified.

    a) The Donetsk airport has zero military value other then being a heavily fortified location near the city of Donetsk. The main importance of the airport is symbolic as it was the place where by far the toughest and best Ukrainian units were sent into combat.

    b) I am pretty sure that when the new terminal was taken over by the Novorussians (this indisputable as there is *a lot* of footage of this even) the junta generals grabbed their phone and began screaming into it demanding an immediate and massive counter attack. This is what happened today. According to Novorussian sources a total of 6 attack waves were repelled and 15 Ukrainian MBTs used in the attempt to retake the new terminal.

    c) It is not surprising that this attack failed. Heavily fortified objectives like the new terminal cannot be taken by tank and artillery fire, though they can be damaged by them. Such objective can only be taken by very well trained and heavily armed infantry assault groups capable and willing to fight in very dangerous and difficult conditions. Such groups, often called "assault/storming groups" are composed of experienced fighters which include machine-gunners, demolition-sapper combat engineers, snipers, anti-tank weapons, mortars, grenade-launchers, etc. These are not the kind of units which the Ukrainians have a lot of, nor are these the kind of units which can be trained in a few weeks or even a few months. This is why the Ukrainian assault have failed and most likely will continue to fail.

    If this is indeed "the" much expected Ukrainian attack, then it fully confirms what everybody has been predicting: the Ukrainians are betting on large numbers of tanks, armored vehicles, artillery pieces and infantrymen to overwhelm the Novorussian defenders. This is a losing strategy because not only will the by now highly experienced and combat hardened Novorussians perform infinitely better than the terrified and/or brainwashed Ukrainians with just a month or so of bootcamp under their belts, but because the inevitable bloodbath resulting from this kind of attack will rapidly break the willpower and morale of the Ukrainian side.

    The single most important factor here is not whether the Ukrainians will lose, but whether the Novorussians will be capable of winning without an over Russian intervention to support them. My personal feeling is that yes, the Novorussians will succeed in beating back the Ukrainian assault and that Russia will not have to intervene openly (from what I hear the Voentorg is already working at full capacity, hence the TOS-1 in Peski).

    I have to confess that I am nervous when I see Zakharchenko, Givi and Motorola at the very front lines quite literally within reach of the Ukrainian assault rifles. I do fully understand why they feel that they have to do that, but I also get a knot in my stomach when I see them, especially all together a standing a few feet from each other. If you are religious, please pray for these courageous men.

    the Saker
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

  7. #17


    Quote Originally Posted by Lauren Johnson View Post

    7) Putin's spokesman Dmitrii Peskov has declared that the Ukrainian side had rejected all Russian offers and presented no counter-proposals. He concluded that the Ukrainians have chose the option of going to war.

    This comes as no surprise. I wonder how the western press will spin it.
    The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
    Carl Jung - Aion (1951). CW 9, Part II: P.14

  8. #18

    Default Poroshenko is all in. He has no other choice.

    Poroshenko is all in. He has no other choice.

    By Parmen Posokhov

    Original here:
    Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

    The situation is unfolding in very interesting ways, and I’m writing this on Christmas night after midnight. Intense battles are swirling around the Donetsk airport, and the main Ukrainian propagandists are quiet.

    Tymchuk is quiet, the last time he made an appearance on Facebook was on 16 January. Butusov likewise is not touching the topic of the fighting, except for his cry from the soul concerning the visit to the airport by the GenStaff chief Muzhenko. Keep the senior leadership out of the way and let us fight.

    Shiklinov, the pathos-laden bard writing about the “cyborg exploits” likewise disappeared, pathos and all. And all of this is happening against the background of victorious pronouncements emanating from CTO leadership. It means that things are not going so well for the “cyborgs” and CTO forces in general located in the vicinity of the Donetsk airport.

    There’s the bombardment of civilian houses in Donetsk and Gorlovka is going quite well, including by the recently used aviation. But one does not write about such things.

    On the other hand we are seeing reports of DPR army counterattacks against Peski and Avdeyevka. Ukrainian media briefly mentioned the use of TOS-1 Buratino, which caused many casualties among Ukrainian troops. Rings true. Let’s wait until morning and see what other weapons the militia will use. No doubt it will use them.

    The path for their use was cleared by Peskov’s announcement concerning Putin’s latest peace initiative, and Poroshenko’s ignoring it. As they say, “you’ve been warned.” Tomorrow it will begin, unless phones don’t start ringing in the Kremlin and the White House, and Putin and Obama don’t reach some kind of an agreement. Possible, but not likely.

    Wheels are turning, and neither Obama nor Putin can stop them, although they started turning rather sooner than they expected. Poroshenko had no choice. He had to choose between a bad option and a very bad option. Not starting the war meant overthrow and physical elimination already in February. Nobody needs a living (especially living in exile) Poroshenko, not Kolomoyskiy, not Turchinov, not Yatsenyuk, not Obama. Starting a war for which the Ukrainian army is not prepared, thus risking military defeat, is also suicidal, but at least there is a tiny chance for success, plus the war can always thrash the volunteer battalions which answer to Kolomoyskiy, thus depriving him his coup strike force. That’s why these battalions, especially Azov, are being sent to the front line.

    Poroshenko is now motivated by his self-preservation instinct.

    Continuing the ceasefire only hastens his demise, while the war makes the situation ore uncertain, from which he is hoping to find an acceptable exit. Giving the order to shell Donetsk and Gorlovka, he is forcing the militia to respond appropriately, regardless of what Moscow wants, and stopping the militia now, after the bloodshed of civilian population, will be very difficult if not impossible. In his attempt to save himself or, what’s more likely, to delay the inevitable, he made the war unavoidable.

    They seem to understand this in Moscow, and Peskov’s statement only confirms it. Likewise in Washington. Nobody can stop cornered Poroshenko.

    We can only watch which side will turn out better prepared for this turn events, which army, Ukraine’s or Novorossia’s, will prove stronger. Obama did not manage to transfer weapons from Afghanistan to Ukraine. Poroshenko, by prematurely starting combat operations, lost to Putin. And, perhaps, he was cleverly provoked into taking this step. If so, all I can do is applaud the Russian government’s skillful handling of the situation.

    P.S. Poroshenko has turned to drink. He arrives at work only by 2-3pm. While talking to visitors in his cabinet he likes to throw items from his desk. By 10-11pm he’s drunk. He is driven home every night around 1-2am

    Translator’s Note: This is entirely probable, though one has to consider the possibility that Yatsenyuk and Turchinov are running the war entirely behind Poroshenko’s back, reducing the president to the role of figurehead. Still, the above analysis still holds even assuming it’s Yatsenyuk/Turchinov who are trying to stave off their overthrow, because the silence from the Ukrainian propagandists and from, well, Western governments who tend to sound just like Ukrainian propagandists, is deafening. The fighting has been going on for a few days now, it’s as if the West has written off the post-Maidan crew but has no post-post-Maidan team in mind, waiting to take over. Which suggests that Ukraine is facing the possibility of a power vacuum at the center, leading to the splintering of the former Ukrainian state.
    "There are three sorts of conspiracy: by the people who complain, by the people who write, by the people who take action. There is nothing to fear from the first group, the two others are more dangerous; but the police have to be part of all three,"

    Joseph Fouche

  9. #19


    Update (1/19)

    Not much happened, unless you are one of the dozens of civilians hit by Ukie shells and now 500kg bombs from the refurbished Ukrainian air force consisting of a few old donated jets.

    Peski is now being cleared of Ukies. This is significant since Peski has been the source of the endless raids on the airport. It is only 4k from the closest airport buildings. This is another step in cutting down the shelling of Donetsk.

    There are reports that Mariupol is back in play with the suburbs starting to be under threat.

    The theory that Poroshenko is a figurehead taking orders from others. One theory is that the best way to keep the volunteer battalions busy is to keep them at the front waging their version of war -- so far, it is marked by incompetence.
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

  10. #20

    Default Another update from El Murid

    The beginning of a new phase in the war has became a fact in the Donbass. Nobody can talk about any violation of the ceasefire regime–the ceasefire has been simply dismissed. Ukrainian propaganda speaks of retaliation by the punitive forces who have been forced to respond to the seizure of the airport. However, it is difficult to use this term for such a massive bombardment and mass troop and armour offensive by the military—it was prepared long in advance.
    In fact, Kiev simply provoked the Militia to capture the airport, constantly hitting residential districts in Donetsk, killing, according to various estimates, around 300-350 civilians from September onwards.

    At any rate, the second stage of the war has became a reality. Now, both the punitive troops and the Militia must prove that they have used the duration of this strange truce to their benefit.

    The UAF offensive is running along the same lines as the summer scenario, not because Ukrainian generals are stupid—but rather because the configuration of the front line leaves no other options. There is oneoperational encirclement of Donetsk by flanking it in the Snezhnoe area and by a tactical seizure of Yasinovataya, Makeevka and Khartsyzk. Cutting the Militia off from the border, as in the summer, makes no sense. It would be enough to cut off the supply and to attempt to hold the situation for at least two weeks. Intense fighting will deplete ammunition, and without replenishing it Donetsk simply will not hold out.

    Russia, continuing to adhere to the denial of its presence and to recognition of the “unity of Ukraine” will be forced to stick with it. Changing this position requires a very serious study of the consequences, for which there is simply no time now. Apparently, the Minsk “peacekeepers” did not even consider the possibility of a transition by Kiev on to the offensive and thus expected that the rather demonstrative build-up of Militia forces would in itself hold the junta back from large-scale hostilities. Thus, the Kremlin does not demonstrate anything that could be described as advance planning. Another “terrible Russian silence” has begun, or ratherin Moscow they do not know what to do. Quite pathetic statements and concernspurely reflex actions that are typical for Russian politics as a whole.
    Evidently, there will be implemented the same reflex momentary plan for holding positions and thus positionally defeating the advancing punitive troops. Without a plan of attack the game is on defencea sure path to defeat, but nothing else appears to be available.

    It is not quite clear how the different groups of the Militia will behave. Judging by today’s breakthrough of several tanks supported by infantry at the Putilovka bridge, they were able to break through the Spartak area [a district of Donetsk -ed.] in the Vostok Battalion’s zone of responsibility. Again Khodakovsky and again the airport. There are also reports from Yasinovataya, which is also under the control of Vostok, that not everything is all right there. Despite the fact that the Militia is fighting bravely, questions arise as to their commanders, as they did in the summer. [The attack through the Putilovka Bridge has been repulsed by now -ed.]

    One can expect for a while exclusively defensive actions from the Militia in Donetsk and possibly diversionary attacks in other directions to force Kiev’s commanders to hold back their reserves. However, when such tactics bring the whole situation to a “slackening”it will be enough for the punitive troops to be successful in any of the areas, and then no diversionary attacks will helpeverything will be thrown into the breakthrough.

    It is somewhat naïve to count on the fact that the Militia will wear down the enemy in defensive battles and then go on the offensivenot for that did the Kremlin rigidly halt the offensive in September, only to allow it, for some reason, in January. The goal remains unchangedto pass the Donbass under the control of Ukraine, at any price, but with a pro-Russian administration. Actually, now people are being killed just for Zakharchenko and Plotnitskiy to become Ukrainian governors. If it will not be them, it will be someone else. Personalities are not importantfunctionality is.

    Kiev is not satisfied with such an approach. Strictly speaking, this was why the situation became aggravated. Currently there are no signs that Kiev and Moscow are ready to resolve the problem at a stroke, so if the punitive troops do not achieve any decisive progress within a week or ten days, the intensity of the fighting could seriously decrease. Then again will be declared an incredible victorya return to the peace process. Until the next exacerbation.

    The only thing that the Militia can try to achieve in this situation is to take the fortified area in Avdeevka, Peski and Opytniy and push the enemy artillery from the city for the next “ceasefire.”

    In the meantime, in addition to the shelling more unpleasant news arrived for the peoplethe Akhmetov Foundation suspended the delivery of humanitarian aid. Until the situation is clarified.

    PS: A letter from a friend in Donetsk. Just that: “…was just stopped in Khartsyzk by a joint traffic police and military commandant outfit. Familiar fighters from the military commandant’s office said that there are sabotage and reconnaissance groups in the city. They are firing at cars. Eight dead bodies…”


    EDIT: The Saker does not like El Murid or Gleb Bazov, whose blog this is from. Just sayin'.
    "We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I

    "We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl

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