A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria

[David Guyatt]

Pepe Escobar's take (at RT):

Why the Sultan of Chaos' is freaking out

Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. Born in Brazil, he's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of "Globalistan" (2007), "Red Zone Blues" (2007), "Obama does Globalistan" (2009) and "Empire of Chaos" (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is "2030", also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.

Published time: 4 Feb, 2016 14:09

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Residents inspect damage after airstrikes by pro-Syrian government forces in Anadan city, about 10 kilometers away from the towns of Nubul and Zahraa, Northern Aleppo countryside, Syria February 3, 2016. © Abdalrhman Ismail / Reuters



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Picture sleepless nights at Sultan' Erdogan's palace in Ankara. Imagine him livid when he learns the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed by Russian air power, started a preemptive Battle of Aleppo through the Bayirbucak region - cutting off Ankara's top weaponizing corridor and Jihadi highway.
TrendsIslamic State

Who controls this corridor will control the final outcome of the war in Syria.
Meanwhile, in Geneva, the remote-controlled Syrian opposition, a.k.a. High Negotiations Committee, graphically demonstrated they never wanted to meet with the Damascus delegation in the first place "proximity" talks or otherwise, even after Washington and Moscow roughly agreed on a two-year transition plan leading to a theoretically secular, nonsectarian Syria.

The Saudi front wanted no less than Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam and all Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria, collaborators at the table in Geneva. So the Geneva charade, quicker than one can say "Road to Aleppo!" was exposed for what it is.

And forget about NATO

Notorious Saudi intel mastermind Prince Turki, a former mentor of one Osama bin Laden, has been to Paris on a PR offensive; all he could muster was an avalanche of non-denial denials - and blaming the whole Syria tragedy on Bashar al-Assad.
The bulk of the Syrian opposition' used to be armchair warriors co-opted by the CIA for years, as well as CIA Muslim Brotherhood patsies/vassals. Many of these characters preferred the joys of Paris to a hard slog on Syrian ground. Now the opposition' is basically warlords answering to the House of Saud even for bottles of water regardless of the suit-and-tie former Ba'ath Party ministers handpicked to be the face of the opposition for the gullible Western corporate media.
Meanwhile, the 4+1' Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah is now winning decisive facts on the ground. The break down; there won't be regime change in Damascus. Yet no one broke the news to the Turks and Saudis.
Sultan' Erdogan is wallowing in a sea of desperation. He continues to divert the gravely serious issues at stake to his own war against the PYD - the umbrella organization of the Syrian Kurds - and the YPG (People's Protection Units, their military wing). Erdogan and Prime Minister Davutoglu wanted the PYD not only banned from Geneva but they want it smashed on the ground, as they see the PYD/YPG as "terrorists" allied to the PKK.
U.N. mediator for Syria Staffan de Mistura gestures during a news conference on the Syrian peace talks outside President Wilson hotel in Geneva, Switzerland February 3, 2016. © Denis Balibouse / Reuters



Yet what is Sultan' Erdogan going to do? Defy the recently arrived 4G++ Sukhoi Su-35S fighters which are scaring the hell out of every NATO Dr. Strangelove? The Turkish Air Force putting its bases on "orange alert" may scare the odd vagrant dog at best. The same applies to NATO Secretary-General, figurehead Jens Stoltenberg, pleading to Russia "to act responsibly and fully respect NATO airspace."
Moscow is going after the Turkmen with a vengeance and at the same time providing air support to the PYD west of the Euphrates. That hits the Sultan' in his heart of hearts; after all Erdogan has threatened multiple times that a PYD/YPG advance west of the Euphrates is the ultimate red line.
An already scared NATO won't support the folly of an Erdogan war against Russia as much as US and UK neocons may crave it; as NATO decisions must be unanimous, the last thing EU powers Germany and France want is yet another Southwest Asia war. NATO may deploy the odd Patriot missiles in southern Anatolia and the odd AWACs to support the Turkish Air Force. But that's it.

Pick your favorite regime change

ISIS/ISIL/Daesh, meanwhile, continues to profit from its own Jihadi highway across a 98 kilometer stretch of Turkish/Syrian border, especially in Jarablus and Al Rai across from Gaziantep and Kilis in Turkey.
Taking a cue from Israel, Ankara is building a wall 3.6 meters high, 2.5 meters wide - covering the stretch between Elbeyli and Kilis, essentially for propaganda purposes. Because the Jihadi Highway, for all practical purposes, remains open even as Turkish Armed Forces may apprehend the odd trespasser (always released). We're talking about a monster smuggler/soldier scam; as much as $300 change hands for each night crossing and a noncommissioned Turkish officer may earn as much as $2,500 to look the other way for a few minutes.
The real question is why Gaziantep is not under a curfew imposed from Ankara, with thousands of Turkish Special Forces actually fighting a "war on terra" on the spot. That's because Ankara and provincial authorities couldn't give a damn; the real priority is Erdogan's war on the Kurds.
This brings us to the only leverage the Sultan' may enjoy at the moment. From Brussels to Berlin, sound minds are terrified that the EU is now actually hostage to Erdogan's Kurd "priority", while Ankara is doing next to nothing to fight massive migrant smuggling.
When Davutoglu went to Berlin recently not only did he make no promises; he re-stressed Erdogan's vow to "annihilate" the Syrian Kurds.
And that explains German Chancellor Angela Merkel's own desperation. How could the alleged most powerful politician in Europe falls for such a crude extortion racket? The Sultan' wants a lot of cash, a lot of concessions, and even a further shot at entering the EU. Otherwise, he won't turn off the tap on the grim refugee flood.
No wonder the regime change rumor mill is frantic. In Ankara? No; in Berlin.

[David Guyatt]

Kerry and Obama are like the God Janus of ancient Rome. One day he announces one thing and a few days later another altogether different thing. This has been a strategy of the Obama Administration over Syria and Iran.

Following the announcement of the ceasefire, Kerry now says if the ceasefire doesn't hold, Washington has a plan B that involves the partition of Syria. Since I think this has always been the US fallback strategy in the event that regime change didn't work - and since the failure of the ceasefire is just as dependent on the the so called "moderates" (whoever the fuck they are?) and Turkey (and therefore the not so moderates), then are we simply seeing yet another double-back in the US regime change plan that is fundamentally aimed at forcing the Qatari gas pipeline to Europe in place of relying on Russian gas supplies?

My sense is yes, that is what this is all about; turning Europe and especially Germany away from closer Russian integration, therefore keeping the US led NATO pre-eminent and continuing to ensure US hegemony. And despite what the Guardian is peddling as an opinion that Putin would allow a partition to occur, I seriously doubt that.

From The Guardian

John Kerry says partition of Syria could be part of plan B' if peace talks fail

US secretary of state tells committee it may be too late' to keep Syria whole and suggests Washington would support partition if ceasefire is unsuccessful


John Kerry says partition of Syria possible if ceasefire fails videoPatrick WintourDiplomatic editor
Tuesday 23 February 2016 18.39 GMTLast modified on Tuesday 23 February 2016 22.09 GMT

John Kerry, the US secretary of state, has said he will move towards a plan B that could involve a partition of Syria if a planned ceasefire due to start in the next few days does not materialise, or if a genuine shift to a transitional government does not take place in the coming months.
"It may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if we wait much longer," he told the US Senate foreign relations committee on Tuesday.
Kerry did not advocate partition as a solution and refused to specify details of a plan B, such as increased military involvement, beyond insisting it would be wrong to assume that Barack Obama would not countenance further action.
He also admitted it was possible Russian-backed forces could capture Aleppo, but pointed out that it has been very hard to retain territory in the five-year civil war.
Kerry said he will be meeting with Russia and other world powers in Geneva in the next few days to discuss the modalities of the ceasefire that was agreed on Monday and is due to come into force on Saturday.

Both the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad and Syrian opposition body the High Negotiating Council have said they will conditionally abide by the ceasefire, including the identification of territories and groups that would be included in the ceasefire.
The cessation of hostilities, agreed in a phone call between the US and Russian presidents, Obama and Vladimir Putin, specifically excludes Islamic State, al-Nusra Front and other terrorist groups identified by the United Nations security council.
There are serious doubts that the ceasefire will hold or be jointly enforceable by the US and Russia because of complex alliances in the opposition and the way in which terrorist groups are intertwined with legitimate opposition forces.
Kerry suggested partition could form part of an eventual solution, saying "this can get a lot uglier and Russia has to be sitting there evaluating that too. It may be too late to keep it as a whole Syria if it is much longer". It is the first time Kerry has spoken of partition, although some believe Putin would be content to see this happen.

On the broader progress of talks, Kerry said: "Assad himself is going to have to make some real decisions about the formation of a transitional government process that is real … there are certainly plan B options being considered".
He said it would be clear in the next few months possibly three whether Assad was willing to compromise, insisting all sides wanted a secular, not sectarian, Syria in which all minorities are protected and the people have the right to choose their leader and future. He continued to insist that Assad could not remain leader because he was not acceptable to those who have fought him over the past four years.
Pressed on whether Russia was serious about the ceasefire, Kerry said:"In the next few days we will know more. It is step by step. There are no illusions. Eyes are open."
He claimed Russia had shown cooperation in recent days and pointed to an increase in humanitarian aid to as many 80,000 Syrians.
Kerry appeared more aware than before that a solution of some kind was needed because Putin was using the refugee crisis to undermine European unity. He said: "Europe is deeply threatened by what is happening. They are talking about different border measures that might be taken. I think it is imperative that America be prepared to help Europe as much as possible."
Kerry was speaking after the Assad government said it would work with Russia to define which groups and areas would be included in the cessation of hostilities plan, which is due to begin on Saturday.

The Syrian government said opposition groups could not be allowed to use the ceasefire to strengthen their military positions and this would be regarded as a breach of the agreement.

The US and Russia's joint statement on a ceasefire on Monday would not have been issued unless the two countries had relatively clear indications that its terms would be accepted by the key players, including the Syrian government, the opposition forces sponsored by Saudi Arabia, and Syrian Kurds.
Assad's recent military advances around Aleppo Syria's second city have largely been enabled by the ferocity of Russian airstrikes against opposition positions.
There is scepticism that the ceasefire will hold due to the difficulties in marking out what territory is covered, and the way in which some opposition groups are interwoven with al-Nusra Front.
The Syrian government stressed the importance of sealing the borders, halting foreign support to armed groups and "preventing these organisations from strengthening their capabilities or changing their positions", in order to avoid wrecking the agreement.
Assad believes Turkey has acted as a supply line for foreign fighters supporting both the "moderate" opposition and Isis.
Turkey has welcomed the ceasefire plan, but is under pressure from the UN to allow entry to tens of thousands more refugees massed on the Syrian border. They are fleeing from the fighting in the Aleppo area.
The High Negotiating Council the main umbrella organisation for Syrian opposition groups backed by the west and Saudi Arabia said late on Monday that it accepted the terms of the ceasefire. However, it added that the plan was dependent on ending all sieges, allowing in humanitarian aid, releasing all detainees and ending bombardments by ground or air.
The British foreign secretary, Philip Hammond, expressed scepticism about the ceasefire. Speaking to the House of Commons, he said: "Whatever the technicalities, the big picture is this: unless the level of Russian airstrikes dramatically decreases, this ceasefire will not hold because the moderate armed opposition cannot lay down their weapons and will not lay down their weapons while they are being annihilated from the air.

"The ceasefire agreement will allow continuing operations against Daesh [Isis] and al-Nusra, and no one would disagree with that. The problem is the Russians claim to date that all of their action has been against those groups, so on the face of it the Russians could be entering into this arrangement on the basis that they are not going to change their behaviour at all. If so, it will fail before it gets off the ground so everything hinges on Russia's good intentions."

[Magda Hassan]

Russia will play it fairly straight but I have no confidence in the US, Turkey or Saudi Arabia to do the right thing. Also as far as Russia and the SAA are concerned there is no cease fire for the terrorists and that means any group involved in regime change. So they wont be bombing the Kurds but will continue to bomb the western and gulf state contras as identified by the SAA. So pretty much business as usual for the Russians. Certainly don't expect the contras to stop doing their thing. Have you noticed the US only ever wants cease fires when they are losing?

[David Guyatt]

Russia will play it fairly straight but I have no confidence in the US, Turkey or Saudi Arabia to do the right thing. Also as far as Russia and the SAA are concerned there is no cease fire for the terrorists and that means any group involved in regime change. So they wont be bombing the Kurds but will continue to bomb the western and gulf state contras as identified by the SAA. So pretty much business as usual for the Russians. Certainly don't expect the contras to stop doing their thing. Have you noticed the US only ever wants cease fires when they are losing?

To give them enough time to reshape their regime change protocols... ::

From some discussions I'vew seen this morning it may be that Obama now wants to kick this tin down the road until he leaves office and let it become someone else's headache. If Hilary gets the nomination we know where it'll go. If Sanders then hopefully a long term resolution. If comb-over then we'll have to wait and see if his action matches his rhetoric, but colour me cynical in that respect.

[Lauren Johnson]

Have you noticed the US only ever wants cease fires when they are losing?

Have you noticed that Russia cooperates and gives them their cease fires? Guess you know what I think of Putin.

[Magda Hassan]

Have you noticed the US only ever wants cease fires when they are losing?

Have you noticed that Russia cooperates and gives them their cease fires? Guess you know what I think of Putin.

Yes, far too conciliatory. However, I don't know that it will mean much change at all in the operation of Russian military there. Or SAA.

[Drew Phipps]

Russia to withdraw forces from Syria
By Michael Pearson, CNN

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/14/world/...index.html

CNN)Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Monday that he has ordered Russian forces to begin withdrawing from Syria, saying they have achieved their goals in the country. The pullback will begin Tuesday, the state-run Sputnik news agency reported. "I think that the task that was assigned to the Ministry of Defense and the armed forces as a whole has achieved its goal, and so I order the defense minister to start tomorrow withdrawing the main part of our military factions from the Syrian Arab Republic," Putin said. Russia began airstrikes in September in support of the Syrian government in a civil war that is now nearly five years old.

Putin discussed the decision with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in a telephone call. "The two leaders noted that the operations conducted by Russia's Aerospace Forces have brought about a real turnabout in the fight against the terrorists in Syria, throwing their infrastructure into disarray and causing them substantial damage," the Kremlin said. "In this context, Mr. Putin said that Russia's Armed Forces have fulfilled their main mission in Syria and a timetable for the withdrawal of the Aerospace Forces' main air grouping has been agreed. Russia will maintain an aviation support centre in Syria in order to monitor compliance with the ceasefire."


Assad "noted the professionalism, courage and heroism of the Russian service personnel who took part in the military operations, and expressed his profound gratitude to Russia for providing such substantial help in fighting terrorism and providing humanitarian assistance to the civilian population," the Kremlin said. Putin also had a conversation about Syria with U.S. President Barack on Monday. "They discussed President Putin's announcement today of a partial withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria and next steps required to fully implement the cessation of hostilities with the goal of advancing the political negotiations on resolution of the conflict. President Obama welcomed the much-needed reduction in violence since the beginning of the cessation, but stressed that continuing offensive actions by Syrian regime forces risk undermining both the Cessation of Hostilities and the UN-led political process," according to a statement from the White House.

Peace talks resume in Geneva

A partial truce involving Syria's government and numerous rebel groups -- but not terrorist organizations like ISIS and al Nusra Front, which have been responsible for some of the worst carnage -- took effect late last month. Military analysts said the Russian intervention helped push back rebel and ISIS forces and bolster the position of Assad, whose government, for a time, appeared to be teetering on the edge. Nobody knows what is in Putin's mind, but the point is he has no right to be in be our country in the first place. Just go," said a spokesman for the main Syrian opposition group, the High Negotiations Committee.


The announcement of the withdrawal comes the same day as Syrian peace talks resumed in Geneva, Switzerland, and some see it as evidence that Putin is sending a message to Syrian and other forces in the region to reach a political solution, CNN's Matthew Chance reported from Moscow. "If a Russian troop withdrawal materializes, it would put President Assad under pressure to finally seriously negotiate a peaceful political transition in Geneva that would ensure the continuation of a Syrian state," said German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
Said CNN's Chance: "You can't ignore the timing of this and the symbolism."

[Lauren Johnson]

I think this Kabuki theatrical performance was arranged some 6 months ago between Surkov and Kerry. It means the partition of Syria will happen and that was the planned outcome. The real tip off came when Assad was not invited to any of the peace talks while Russia proudly proclaimed the were the only country obeying international law because they were invited by Assad. Russia proven that she exists at the pleasure of the Empire.

[Lauren Johnson]

Now we learn that Putin was fighting for a stalemate (?) in Syria and he never was playing a zero sum game.

::headbang::

There's a lot more in this Sputnik article worth reading. I personally suspected that the Syria gambit was scripted out between Lavrov and Kerry during last summer's diplomatic exchanges. Gotta hand it to Putin. He gave a great speech at the UN in September with a great line: "Don't you realize what you've done?"

The debate is raging with many explanations of what Putin is doing. The US/NATO continues to foment chaos around Russia and China with the goal of bringing them to their proper place in the NWO as vassals so that the Western banks and militaries can set up a regime of imposed rents and asset stripping.

My guess is that Putin saved Obama's chestnuts again and maybe they both get the Nobel Peace Prize. The rumor is that Putin is consulting with Kiev and maneuvering to replace the leadership of DLPRs while the shelling of the Donetsk, Spartak, etc. has gone way up. Putin still continues to urge both parties to obey the Minsk II accords.

Of course, what do we know? He's the Eleven Dimensional Chess Master.

[David Guyatt]

For me, the best source of accurate information on Syria is Thierry Meyssan at Voltaire.

He has just put up an article revealing that Russia's military intervention in Syria was coordinated with the White House who knew about it well in advance. He also shows that the withdrawal was subject to a prior agreement which was known by some nations as early as January 2016.

I recommend following the footnotes and translating them where necessary, because the proofs of what Meyssan says are lodged there.

Russia and Victory

by Thierry Meyssan

The announcement of the partial withdrawal of the Russian Army from Syria has spawned a great number of commentaries which illustrate the preconceived bias of their authors rather than reality. Thierry Meyssan points out that the facts demonstrate not only that the differences between Moscow and Damascus have been resolved, but that Russia which managed to topple the Western powers into the anti-terrorist camp intends to allow Syrians to liberate their territory by themselves.

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | DAMASCUS (SYRIA) | 17 MARCH 2016 فارسى عربي DEUTSCH FRANÇAIS ITALIANO РУССКИЙ TÜRKÇE PORTUGUÊS ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΆ ESPAÑOL

The announcement by the Russian President of the «withdrawal of the main group of its contingent» [1] has provoked a new campaign of disinformation. According to the Western and Gulf Press, Vladimir Putin had been «irritated» by the uncompromising attitude of President Bachar el-Assad, and decided to leave Syria in order to make him face up to his own responsibilities. The same commentators add that since he has no allies left, al-Assad will have to make concessions in Geneva, and abandon his country. Moscow would therefore have offered a wonderful gift to Washington for its five years of «civil war».However, all this is absurd.1- The Russian military intervention was first negotiated in 2012 by General Hassan Tourekmani, but was only implemented three years later, since Moscow wanted to make the final adjustments to its new weaponry before deployment. Russian troops began to set up in July 2015, and we were the first to announce it. Our information was immediately picked up by the Israëli Press, then by the international media [2]. It was agreed that the bombing campaign would begin after the meeting of the Security Council, which was to take place alongside the UN General Assembly, and last until the Orthodox Christmas, on the 6th January 2016.It was also planned that once peace had been re-established, a force from the CSTO would be deployed in order to maintain it however, this has so far been impossible.2- However, in view of the White House's difficulty in controlling its allies, the bombing campaign was extended until the Geneva negotiations began again on the 15th March. It goes without saying that Russia never took this date as the anniversary of any pseudo-revolution. Everything began on the 12th December 2003, with the promulgation by George W. Bush of the declaration of war (Syria Accountability Act), then continued year after year (the Arab League summit in Tunis, 2004, concerning the forced «democratisation» of Lebanon and Syria, the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005 and the accusations that Presidents Lahoud and el-Assad had ordered it, the invasion of Lebanon in 2006, intended to provoke the Syrian intervention, the creation of the National Salvation Front by the Muslim Brotherhood in 2007, the destruction of Hezbollah's communication systems and supply networks in 2008, etc.) and the commencement of hostilities on Syrian territory in 2011, up until today.3- Russia has begun the withdrawal of its contingent quite conspicuously. Flight plans have regularly been registered four days in advance for all cargo planes charged with transporting men and equipment back to Russia. As for the date itself, it was no surprise. The Jordanian Chief of Staff, General Mishal Al-Zaben, had been informed in January in Moscow, by the Russian Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and his Syrian counterpart General Fahd Jassem Al-Freij [3]. It is therefore ridiculous to link this decision to any supposed disagreement that may have occurred over the last few days.The political differences have been resolved. The first disagreement concerned the Russian proposition for a federal system rejected by both Damascus and Riyadh which had its roots in the Soviet experience. However, the minorities of the Near East contrary to those of the ex-USSR are intermingled, and speak the same language. The second concerned the general elections of the 13th April, which the Russians wanted to postpone in order to include them in the Geneva negotiations, while Damascus refused to violate the Constitution.4- From the military point of view, the Russian Army is withdrawing from the battlefield, but not from military headquarters. There is no longer much point in accumulating planes, because there are few targets left to hit the fortifications built by the jihadists and their networks for the transport of stolen oil have been destroyed. On the other hand, the anti-aircraft systems - S-400 and Pantsir-S2 missiles are staying where they are. The supply of weapons and munitions continues, as does the access to Russian satellite intelligence. Russia has renewed the equipment and trained soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army, which had been under embargo for the last 10 years [4]. From now on, the Army is not only capable of defending its population from the jihadists, but also of liberating the occupied territory, which it has begun to do. In this case, Russian aid consists not of simple bombing raids, but air support for the ground troops, as we saw yesterday in Palmyra.After having invested hundreds of billions of roubles in Syria, Russia is not leaving the Near East at a time when Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are on the brink of civil war. It is leaving the Syrians to the glory of their Victory.