Polish President and Army Chief of Staff dead

[Myra Bronstein]

In theory, what would Russia's motive be if they were, again, responsible?

[Myra Bronstein]

In theory, what would Russia's motive be if they were, again, responsible?

Again, IF it was not an accident, could this be a factor?

"Kaczynski, 60, pursued a strongly pro-U.S. line in foreign relations, in accordance with a cross-party consensus that has grown in Poland since the fall of communism. He was an enthusiastic backer of plans to site a U.S. missile defence facility in the country, the largest of the European Union's new eastern members."
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/st...?hub=World

[Peter Lemkin]

Yes Jan, the symbolism is immense. The Russian press are making a big point of the likelihood of pilot error while all the western press are eulogizing the Prime Minister. It could well be that Putin has started an undeclared war as it seems. It may also be pilot error or it could be the west making a point or two, as usual, perhaps to the Ukraine. And they haven't had all their own way in Poland either. But I would be surprised if it was them.

The Lubyanka suicide bombers.

The overthrow of the government of Krygyzstan.

The death of the Polish President and military top brass in Russia.

All these events may be as they seem on the surface: Chechen terrorist bombs; a spontaneous people's revolt against govt austerity measures; pilot error.

Equally, each could be a move in a grand geopolitical chessgame, now involving Bishops and Knights rather than Pawns.

I have little doubt that the world's intelligence agencies are interpreting all these events as primarily geopolitical and probably sinister.

Let us not forget what Putin's 'old job description' was!! I think you are likely correct Jan, this is the way 'wars' are often waged now - secretly - not 'declared' - that is now passe' [except for the U$A]...The symbolism is NOT lost on the Poles. Walesa had a memorable quote on this, I'll try to find. The plane had just been serviced, even if it was a bit old and not the best type of aircraft. I doubt however the Russians will do any better an investigation that the U$A did on Dallas or Sept. 11. Here in the Czech Republic, not far from Poland at all [one summer I lived in the Krkonose Mts. and every day went for a walk with my dog to Poland - on the other side of the highest peaks] it has had a very chilling effect. Yesterday, here in Prague, the Presidents of Russia and the U$A signed a Potemkin Village Treaty on Nuclear Arms. Today, this. Nice timing. It has just been announced that Putin, himself, will head the investigation into the crash.....:goodnight:

[Magda Hassan]

In theory, what would Russia's motive be if they were, again, responsible?

Again, IF it was not an accident, could this be a factor?

"Kaczynski, 60, pursued a strongly pro-U.S. line in foreign relations, in accordance with a cross-party consensus that has grown in Poland since the fall of communism. He was an enthusiastic backer of plans to site a U.S. missile defence facility in the country, the largest of the European Union's new eastern members."
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/st...?hub=World

The removal of the US missiles from Poland would be the obvious benefit to Russia.

Kaczynski was pro - US in foreign policy and Poland has 2,600 troops in Afghanistan but at home he was a Christian Democrat type and supported the Catholic church and social services and some controls and regulations on foreign investment etc.

Not sure if he knew or was involved in the CIA rendition secret prison in Poland.

[Helen Reyes]

In theory, what would Russia's motive be if they were, again, responsible?

Again, IF it was not an accident, could this be a factor?

"Kaczynski, 60, pursued a strongly pro-U.S. line in foreign relations, in accordance with a cross-party consensus that has grown in Poland since the fall of communism. He was an enthusiastic backer of plans to site a U.S. missile defence facility in the country, the largest of the European Union's new eastern members."
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/st...?hub=World

Remember, there are 2 Kaczynskis, the Evil Twins, one of whom was president and the other prime minister at the same time (or something like that). The PM would have policy-making power while the president would be more symbolic in role.

What was it the PM Kaczynski told the homeless guy who ran up to him in public and enthusiastically said how he had voted for his party? "Get lost you old fuck" is a loose translation. So much for the Third Republic's "intellectual elite." Sikorski survived, at least.

They're not related to this guy (I suspect):

As for motives in 3 possibly related Russian/Kyrgyz events, there's one country whose secretary of state is doing a crackerjack job of offending even old allies right now, in the sole interest of sowing malaise and discord worldwide, as far as I can tell. Not that the US could hope to pull off a people-power color revolution in Kyrgyzistan right now, but we might not be dealing with rational actors at this point.

[Jan Klimkowski]

In theory, what would Russia's motive be if they were, again, responsible?

Myra - it's the geopolitical context.

The Lubyanka suicide bombs, as discussed elsewhere on DPF, were potentially western-inspired false flag attacks, framed within the context of "Islamic Black Widows", intended to tell Putin to join the "War on Terror" and play ball on Iran.

This was followed by the overthrow of the government of Krygyzstan. This revolt seems likely to lead to the US and NATO losing a logistically crucial air base and supply post, and as such may represent Putin's aggressive response to Lubyanka.

If the plane crash is sinister, its message would be crystal clear and symbolically resonant to Poles. Putin would be saying: the NKVD executed your military top brass at Katyn, now I - a "onetime" KBG officer - am wiping out your military high command in the same forest. So, Poles, forget about hosting American or NATO missile bases on your soil.

If this is a correct interpretation, then - in poker terms - Putin has seen the western/NATO bid and raised it.

Massively.

[Ed Jewett]

Someone be sure to post if it is discovered that the accident investigation team left before the crash. :pcguru:

[Charles Drago]

Putin has been designated by his president to run the official investigation into the crash.

There were two airports with in-alignment runways no more than a kilometer apart.

[Helen Reyes]

I have no idea about Poland's presidential craft, but LOT doesn't have the best reputation for safety. Not the worst, either. Glad to see Charles is still above water

[Jan Klimkowski]

Here's some Russian perspective on the first Katyn ceremony, attended by Tusk and Putin, earlier this week.

My emphasis in bold.

Poland: Putin's speech won't please everyone

23:4407/04/2010
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's speech was broadcast live by Polish television, radio and the Internet news sites. A translation into Polish appeared on the Internet soon after.

For the first time since Russian was dropped from the curriculum of Polish schools and universities in 1992, Russian speakers were worth their weight in gold in Poland. People listened intently to Putin's every word and scrutinized his every move: "Putin bowed his head to the Poles murdered at Katyn" "Putin said that the crimes of totalitarianism cannot be justified."

Will some Poles be dissatisfied with Putin's speech? Absolutely. You can't please everyone when it comes to Katyn. It is important to understand that for the Poles, Katyn is not just a symbol of Stalin's crimes. In his speech today, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accurately called the old Soviet version blaming the Germans for the murder of the Polish officers a "cornerstone" myth of the Polish People's Republic (PPR). Poles only dared whisper their doubts about the official version in the PPR, and the collapse of this myth in 1989-1990 became a symbol of Polish liberation from totalitarianism. If the official version was based on a lie, then the whole system was built on a lie and must be dismantled.

Regrettably, new myths are cropping up in today's Poland. The biggest myth has to do with "the threat from the East." The Kaczynski brothers - the president and former prime minister - have spoken freely about this danger, and until recently, Poland was under their sway.

One of the brothers, Lech, is still the president. In the last few weeks, he openly expressed his jealousy of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was invited by Putin to visit Katyn. Until this year, memorial ceremonies at the graves of the Polish officers at Katyn were a strictly Polish affair. Polish presidents and ministers visited the site but unofficially. These were almost family events with the officers' relatives in attendance.

This is the first ceremony attended by Russian leaders but not the Polish president. Kaczynski's stated intention to visit Katyn three days later with the relatives of the dead and a propaganda landing party is a political gesture motivated more by discontent and envy than respect for the memory of the victims.

Kaczynski got the hint, and he will have to bear responsibility for his speech at a square in Tbilisi next to the war criminal Mikheil Saakashvili several days after the attack on Tskhinval - a speech filled with irresponsible anti-Russian rhetoric. Kaczynski may only be judged by history for his actions, but one thing is certain: he will not be remembered as a political leader who led Polish-Russian relations out of this deadlock. Tusk and Putin have that chance.

The second myth, which will take a long time to dispel, is the "ethnic" interpretation" of Katyn, which depicts this tragedy as an anti-Polish act of the entire Russian nation (as if Bashto Kobulov, a member of the troika that condemned the officers to death, and the Politburo members Dzhugashvili, Kaganovich and Beria, who signed a relevant resolution, were Russians). In his speech today, Putin said, "Stalinist repression swept people away regardless of their ethnic origin, convictions or religious beliefs. Whole social classes became victims - Cossacks, clergymen, ordinary peasants, professors, officers, some of whom served in the Tsarist army and then came to serve the Soviet state but were still not spared."

This passage from Putin's speech will no doubt be met with criticism in Poland. Lech Kaczynski keeps repeating that the officers in Katyn were shot because they were POLISH officers. But the documents show that in the eyes of the Politburo members and Stalin himself the victims of Katyn were considered Soviet citizens. At the time of the massacre in the spring of 1940, Poland did not exist as a state. One chunk of pre-war Poland belonged to Nazi Germany, while the other belonged to the U.S.S.R. The more than 21,000 Polish officers who found themselves at Stalin's mercy shared the fate of millions of Soviet citizens.

It is hard to move past the "ethnic interpretation" of Katyn. It is a much easier to use it as a political trump card, like the Kaczynski brothers are doing. Many Russian politicians are also tempted to feed into this interpretation. But they must resist this temptation, for a political career based on this lie will collapse just like the PPR.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20100407/1584....

For Poles, Katyn is absolutely an ethnic crime. It is the direct consequence of the Nazi-Soviet Pact, under which Germany invaded western Poland and engaged, and quickly destroyed, the Polish army. Meanwhile, the NKVD and Red Army invaded eastern Poland, with lists of the "intelligentsia", including army officers, and their families to be deported to Siberia.

In the 1930s, Poland was seen by both Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia as the strongest Slav state. It therefore had to be destroyed.

There were no Nazi SS Polish divisions. Polish divisions in the Red Army were only created after almost the entire Polish officer corps had been murdered at Katyn and other execution sites. Polish military units were a threat to both the Nazis and the Soviets, and thus were either not created, or were strictly controlled - in the case of the Red Army - by Soviet officers.

Katyn was an ethnic crime. It was part of the attempt to destroy the Polish intelligentsia. To cut off the head and create a subservient, leaderless, runt.

In the context of the plane crash, it appears that this Polish military and presidential pilgrimage to Katyn, with relatives of the dead, was probably unwelcome to Putin. This increases the possibility of foul play.