A Mediterranean Battlefield - Syria

[David Guyatt]

The Daily Beast reports:

Exclusive: Obama Asks Pentagon for Syria No-Fly Zone Plan

by Josh Rogin May 28, 2013 3:06 PM EDTUpdatedPentagon spokesman Dave Lapan sent the following statement to The Daily Beast after this story posted: "There is no new planning effort underway. The Joint Staff, along with the relevant combatant commanders, continue to conduct prudent planning for a range of possible military options."


Along with no-fly zone plans, the White House is considering arming parts of the Syrian opposition and formally recognizing the Syrian opposition council, reports Josh Rogin.

The White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for a no-fly zone inside Syria that would be enforced by the U.S. and other countries such as France and Great Britain, two administration officials told The Daily Beast.

The request was made shortly before Secretary of State John Kerry toured the Middle East last week to try and finalize plans for an early June conference between the Syrian regime and rebel leaders in Geneva. The opposition, however, has yet to confirm its attendance and is demanding that the end of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's rule be a precondition for negotiations, a condition Assad is unlikely to accept.

President Obama's dual-track strategy of continuing to pursue a political solution to the two-year-old uprising in Syria while also preparing for more direct U.S. military involvement includes authorizing the Joint Chiefs of Staff for the first time to plan for multilateral military actions inside Syria, the two officials said. They added that no decisions on actually using force have yet been made.

"The White House is still in contemplation mode but the planning is moving forward and it's more advanced than it's ever been," one administration official told The Daily Beast. "All this effort to pressure the regime is part of the overall effort to find a political solution, but what happens if Geneva fails? It's only prudent to plan for other options."

In a May 8 meeting of the National Security Council Principals Committee, the White House tasked several agencies with reporting on the pros and cons of two additional potential courses of action: arming vetted and moderate elements of the Syrian opposition, such as the Free Syrian Army, and formally recognizing the Syrian opposition council as the government of Syria, which would mean removing formal U.S. recognition of the Assad regime.

Sen. John McCainwho's advocated for more aggressive U.S. support of the Syrian rebels and who traveled secretly into the country Monday to meet with the leaders of the Free Syrian Armytold The Daily Beast last week that despite the request for plans he doubts the White House will decide to implement a no-fly zone in Syria. The Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs are opposed to the idea, he said.

"One thing about the Pentagon, if they don't want to do something, they will tell you all sorts of reasons why they can't do it. It's going to take significant pressure for them to come up with realistic plans," McCain said. "They will invent ways for us not to do it until the president of the United States says we've got to do it."

McCain said a realistic plan for a no-fly zone would include hundreds of planes, and would be most effective if it included destroying Syrian airplanes on runways, bombing those runways, and moving U.S. Patriot missile batteries in Turkey close to the border so they could protect airspace inside northern Syria.

In April, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey told the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense that the military was planning for a range of options in Syria but that he did not necessarily support using those options.

"It's only prudent to plan for other options."

"We're prepared with options, should military force be called upon and assuming it can be effectively used to secure our interests without making matters worse," he said. "We must also be ready for options for an uncertain and dangerous future. That is a future we have not yet identified."

The administration probably won't make any decisions about greater intervention in Syria until after the Geneva conference, McCain said.

"I think they're moving towards the planning because the pressure is so great, but we're in a full-court stall until this conference in Geneva," he said.

U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Gulf Region Phil Gordon traveled to Turkey from May 9 to 11 and met there with leaders of the Syrian opposition to encourage them to attend the Geneva conference. A White House official told The Daily Beast that the administration agrees that Assad should step down but does not agree that this should be a precondition to moving forward with the Geneva plan.

"In meetings with Syrian opposition leaders to discuss the implementation of the Geneva Communiqué we underscored our support for the Syrian Council (SC) as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people, reaffirmed our support for a political transition based on the framework of the Geneva Communiqué, and reiterated that Assad must go," the official said.

Critics of the administration, including McCain, doubt that the new Geneva conferencecoming a year after the earlier summit produced the Communiqué that called for an end to violence and democratic transition will produce any progress toward a political solution. They also doubt that the Russians are committed to such a solution, considering that they continue to provide arms to the Assad regime. But Kerry has continued to endorse and push for the conference as a way to begin real negotiations between the regime and the opposition.

"This is a Kerry initiative," an administration official said. "It's also a test of the veracity of the Russian claims that they are committed to a peaceful outcome that reflects the will of the Syrian people."

The Geneva conference will happen at about the same time as a huge set of military exercises conducted in Jordan called "Eager Lion," which will include 15,000 troops from 18 countries, including the United States. The U.S. could leave military assets in Jordan following the exercise that might be useful for a no-fly zone, such as F-16 fighter aircraft.

Caitlin Hayden, the spokesperson for the White House's National Security Staff, told The Daily Beast that the White House is considering a range of possible actions in Syria.

"As the president reiterated last week, all options are on the table with regard to Syria, though a scenario involving American boots on the ground is not likely," she said. "We are prepared for all contingencies," she said. "We will continue to urgently work to support the opposition. We are consulting with the Syrian Opposition Coalition and the Supreme Military Council about how we can continue to elevate our assistance; we are leading the world in providing humanitarian assistance for those affected by the violence; and we will continue to coordinate international efforts to end the bloodshed and hasten a political transition to a Syria where Bashar al-Assad has no role."

Some Syria experts praised the White House's decision to plan more options in Syria, but doubted that Obama would actually make the decision to intervene in the near term.

"No doubt, the United States and its like-minded allies and partners are fully capable, without the use of ground troops, of obviating the Assad regime's degraded, fixed, and mobile air defenses and suppressing the regime's use of airpower," said Robert Zarate, policy director at the Foreign Policy Initiative, a Washington-based group that advocates for aggressive U.S. military action in support of human rights and democratic allies. "But the question is whether that's something President Obama actually has the will and resolve to do."

[David Guyatt]

From UPI:

Special Reports



Jordan to host major military exercise

Published: May 28, 2013 at 3:33 AM



AMMAN, Jordan, May 28 (UPI) -- Jordan is to host a major military exercise with more than 15,000 soldiers from 18 countries, including the United States.
A Jordanian military official speaking on condition of anonymity stated that, besides the United States, other countries sending military personnel for the two-week "Eager Lion 2013" military exercise include Britain, Bahrain, Canada, the Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iraq, Italy, Lebanon, Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, The Tehran Times reported.
The Eager Lion 12 operations are the largest recurring, annual exercise in U.S. military's Central Command and designed to strengthen military-to-military relationships.
Exercise Eager Lion 12, also in Jordan, ran May 8-30, 2012 and involved 11,000 personnel from 19 countries.
Since 2008 Jordan has received $2.4 billion in U.S. military and economic aid but its resources have become strained by the influx of refugees -- currently more than 500,000 -- fleeing civil war in neighboring Syria.

[Magda Hassan]

Russians are quite good at chess.

[David Guyatt]

Russians are quite good at chess.

Exactly my thought too Magda. Then again the Israeli's are pretty good players too. Let's hope that a game doesn't become something far more dangerous.

[Magda Hassan]

I saw on the US PBC news hour here today that they are saying the Syrian Army is now Hezbollah fighting in their place. They claimed it was because the arms they are using are AK 47s and not Kalishnakovs (Syrian army issue) that there fore they must be Hezbollah. This is of course an excuse for Israel to do their thing. She said it with a serious face so it must be true.

It is interesting that Jordan has been drawn into this now. I just don't see Russia giving up on this just yet. There is too much at stake for them.

[Magda Hassan]

The Daily Beast reports:

Exclusive: Obama Asks Pentagon for Syria No-Fly Zone Plan

by Josh Rogin May 28, 2013 3:06 PM EDTUpdatedPentagon spokesman Dave Lapan sent the following statement to The Daily Beast after this story posted: "There is no new planning effort underway. The Joint Staff, along with the relevant combatant commanders, continue to conduct prudent planning for a range of possible military options."


Along with no-fly zone plans, the White House is considering arming parts of the Syrian opposition and formally recognizing the Syrian opposition council, reports Josh Rogin.

The White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for a no-fly zone inside Syria that would be enforced by the U.S. and other countries such as France and Great Britain, two administration officials told The Daily Beast.

And we all saw how that works with the Libya no fly zone. As the Arab League found out to its horror it means that the the sovereign state is meant to lie down like a door mat while the 'civilised' west carpet bombs the cities and infrustructure only to award themselves the contracts to later rebuild it all with their tame puppet in place running things for them. It does not mean that there will be no flying of planes.

[David Guyatt]

I saw on the US PBC news hour here today that they are saying the Syrian Army is now Hezbollah fighting in their place. They claimed it was because the arms they are using are AK 47s and not Kalishnakovs (Syrian army issue) that there fore they must be Hezbollah. This is of course an excuse for Israel to do their thing. She said it with a serious face so it must be true.

It is interesting that Jordan has been drawn into this now. I just don't see Russia giving up on this just yet. There is too much at stake for them.

AK 47s and not Kalashnikovs. Blimey! It's total bollocks isn't it.

[Magda Hassan]

The Great Game Round Up brings you the latest newsworthy developments regarding Central Asia and the Caucasus region. The proxy war in Syria is still in full swing and affects not only the Middle East but also Central Asia and the Caucasus. There are even a few Central Asian fighters among the Syrian rebels':Three Tajik citizens killed since start of hostilities in Syria special services of TajikistanThe threat of joining terrorist and extremist groups by young Tajik citizens has become the reason of the decision to bring students studying at religious education institutions abroad back to the home country. Otherwise, the circumstances would be irreversible, Melikov believes.…Two Kyrgyzstanis recruited for Syria return homePreventive and precautionary measures aimed at preventing involvement of citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic in extremist and terrorist activities, and participation in armed clashes in Syria and other countries in the Middle East continue. At the same time GKNB is working on identification of traffickers and recruiters.…We probably shouldn't wait for an investigation to expose the culprits as long as this could damage certain business relations.Rising radicalism in Syria and the unstable situation in Afghanistan prompted Russia's military intelligence agency, the GRU, to warn of an increasing terror threat. Many foreign militants fighting in Syria are from the Russian republic of Chechnya [emphasis mine]:12 Chechen fighters killed in central Syria: activistsThe Syrian government has long been charging that foreign fighters are joining the battles alongside the opposition rebels, accusing regional countries, such as Turkey, of facilitating the flow of those jihadists into Syria.…So there is reasonable concern in Russia that the Syrian crisis could reach the Caucasus [emphasis mine]:Syrian crisis rapidly spreads and can affect the CaucasusPushkov does not exclude that "terrorism can come to those states where it never existed previously. So I would not want the states of the southern Caucasus to become involved in this terrorist activity, but it could happen. Because total destabilization leads to a situation where some people, especially with the funding of certain fundamentalist groups that are growing by leaps and bounds, on oil and gas in a number of Arab states, may have an idea, but why not try to support extremist tendencies in a particular country in the region, say, in Azerbaijan. I think that's what is dangerous about the Syrian crisis it can, like cancer, metastasise into other countries.…
http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2013/05/...y-26-2013/

[Magda Hassan]

Let's hope there is another James Blunt around who wont carry out the order when it comes.

New Arms Bill In Congress Could Involve Major Sanctions On RussiaBookmark

APThe US Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted on Tuesday to pass a bill that will be highly unpopular in Moscow, not to mention Damascus.

The bill heads first to the Senate, then to the House (where it will meet opposition), and finally to the president.
The Syrian Transition Support Act would provide arms to Syrian rebels in support of a regime change a precedent Russia deeply opposes. Moscow has already been overtly sending weapons to Assad (more intensely so as of late), so Washington's move to overtly arm the rebels could easily paint Syria as the battleground of a blossoming proxy war.
Russia won't like that idea, but it also won't like the paragraph in the bill about sanctions on anyone shipping arms or oil to the Syrian regime:
Sanctions on arms and oil sales to Assad: Targetingany person that the President of the United States determines has knowingly participated in or facilitated a transaction related to the sale or transfer of military equipment, arms, petroleum, or petroleum products to the Assad regime.
Person is defined within the actual text of the bill as any "person or entity."
Arguably this also targets Iran giving at least some political cover for the idea nonetheless it also lumps Russia in for stiff U.S. sanctions.
Russia has become a huge exporter of fuel and weapons to Syria, and Syria one of its biggest customers.
"Russia's economic interests in Syria extend far beyond the military sphere, with a
total value of approximately $20 billion," Business Insider contributor and Russia expert Dmitry Gorenburg wrote late last year.
The U.S. is well aware of the relationship as well.
As Time's Simon Schuster recently put it:
The U.S. and its allies have done just about everything short of getting down on their collective knees and begging Russia to stop delivering weapons to the Syrian government.

Well, the begging could be just about over.

[David Guyatt]

Check. The Russians saw the next obvious board move and planned ahead.

Next move Uncle & Israel?

30 May 2013 Last updated at 09:41

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Russian S300 anti-aircraft missiles 'delivered to Syria'

Some analysts have characterised the possible use of the missiles as a "game-changer" in the Syrian conflict
Continue reading the main story

Syria conflict

• Massacre 'proof'
  
• Qusair's importance
  
• Chemical attacks
  
• 'Chemical attack' town
  

Syria has already received the first shipment of an advanced Russian air defence system, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad is reported to have said in a Lebanese TV interview.
Russia vowed to go ahead with sending the weapons earlier this week in defiance of Western objections.
Mr Assad is also reported to have told Hezbollah-linked Al Manar TV that the tide of the war is turning.
Earlier, a rebel leader told the BBC that Hezbollah was "invading" Syria.
Gen Selim Idriss, the military chief of the main umbrella group of Syrian rebels, the Free Syrian Army, claimed that more than 7,000 fighters of the Lebanese Shia movement were taking part in attacks on the rebel-held town of Qusair.
Gen Idriss made an emotional appeal to Western powers on the BBC World Service's Newshour programme, saying: "We are dying. Please come and help us."
He appealed for more weapons "to defend our citizens".


Gen Salim Idriss makes an appeal on the BBC's World Service: "We are dying, we are suffering, many, many people are now waiting to be killed"

Gen Idriss said the FSA was fielding fewer than 1,500 fighters in the fight for Qusair, armed only with light weapons.
More than 50,000 residents were trapped in the town and a "massacre" would occur if it fell, he added.
The US State Department has demanded that Hezbollah withdraw its fighters from Syria immediately.
Fears of further tensionContinue reading the main story

Who are Hezbollah?

• Lebanese Shia Muslim group
  
• Name means the Party of God
  
• Defined by hostility to Israel since 1980s
  
• Fought Israel in a bitter and deadly war in 2006
  
• Made up of political and military wings
  
• Strongest member of Lebanon's pro-Syria bloc
  
• Consistently backs Assad rule in Syria
  
• Fighters known to be active inside Syria
  
• Branded a terrorist group by Washington
  

• Full profile: Hezbollah
  

"Syria has received the first shipment of Russian anti-aircraft S-300 rockets," Al Manar quoted Mr Assad as saying in an interview due to be broadcast later on Thursday.
"The rest of the shipment will arrive soon."
The S-300 is a highly capable surface-to-air missile system that, as well as targeting aircraft, also has the capacity to engage ballistic missiles.
The delivery of such missiles raises fears of further tension with Israel as Mr Assad is also reported to have threatened to respond directly if Israel launches any further air attacks on Syria.
However, the Israeli Defence Minister, Moshe Yaalon, said on Tuesday he had information suggesting the missiles had not yet been delivered.
"The shipments have not left yet. Let's hope they won't, and if they do, we'll know how to act," he said.
Some analysts have characterised the possible use of the missiles as a "game-changer" in the Syrian conflict.
It is also feared that the missiles could endanger US-Russian efforts to convene a peace conference on Syria in Geneva in June.
'Momentum'
In excerpts from his interview with Al Manar, Mr Assad is quoted as saying the military balance of power has gone in favour of the army which has scored major victories.
Syria and Hezbollah are on the same axis, he is reported as saying, with Hezbollah fighters deployed along the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Regime forces, backed by Hezbollah fighters, are reported to have retaken from rebels a disused military airfield north of Qusair.
This probably cuts the last supply line for the few rebels holding out in the town, says the BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut.
Opposition groups and humanitarian organisations say conditions for the civilians and the wounded in Qusair are dire.
Doctors are quoted as saying oxygen and other medical supplies have run out.
The opposition has appealed to the Red Cross and the Red Crescent to intervene to help 1,000 injured people at risk of dying for lack of medical attention.
Syrian government officials say that a corridor had been established to allow civilians to escape and fighters who put down their arms are free to leave too.
'Absolutely unacceptable'
Casting a further shadow over the proposed Geneva conference, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, accused the Syrian opposition of making unrealistic demands.
"We are under the impression that the National Coalition and its regional sponsors are doing everything so as not to allow the start of the political process and achieve military intervention in Syria through any means possible," he told reporters.
Mr Lavrov said National Coalition demands for Mr Assad to step down were "impossible to fulfil".
He called on the US and Europe to "rein in those who condone these absolutely unacceptable aggressive approaches of the National Coalition".

RUSSIAN S-300PMU SYSTEM

• Type: Surface to air missile system, capable of hitting aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles
  
• Special feature: Fires two missiles at a time, vertically, making it versatile and accurate
  
• Origin: S-300P dates from the 1960s but current state-of-the art export versions are S-300PMU-1 and 2 which were developed in the late 1990s
  
• Manufacturer: Almaz-Antey
  
• Cost: $900m for full system although it is not clear whether this is what Russia is supplying to Syria
  
• Specification: Each launcher vehicle [align=left] carries four missile containers (two missiles per target). A full battalion is six launcher vehicles with a total of 24 missiles plus command and control and long range radar detection vehicles
  
• Capability: Russian 48N6 are the standard missiles fired from S-300PMU launchers. They have a range of 5-150km at an altitude of up to 30km
  
• Response time: Vehicle stopping to missile firing is 5 minutes
  

Source: Royal United Services Institute