05-09-2009, 06:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-09-2009, 06:36 PM by Jan Klimkowski.)
China's economists are, effectively, the canaries in the coalmine - able to look at western economies dispassionately.
With one caveat, China has skin in the global financial game. Particularly with regard to its massive American investments.
Crucially for China though, the standard of living of their average citizen is much lower than their equivalents in the west, and China's ability to contain mass public dissent is arguably higher than that of western countries.
With regard to the global ponzi scheme, (um, global financial system), in my judgement future debt has been pulled forward to such an insane extent - in an attempt by the financial elites to screw yet more profit out of a zero sum game - that massive debt default is now inevitable.
It's a game of pass the parcel, with multiple parcels full of excrement, and perhaps only one or two smelling of roses.
The problem for everyone sitting at the table is how to dump the turds and make a fragrant escape.
All the players are watching the Chinese, checking for any attempt to pass the smelly parcels and head for the exit door. If they're spotted doing this, market confidence will probably collapse and a genuine and catastrophic domino effect will likely ensue.
How non-Chinese market players read this will be the key. On the face of things, it does appear that the Chinese are starting to decouple.
I bet all those western financial thinktanks, with their cliched thinking, are reaching for their copies of Sun Tzu right about now....
tupido2:
With one caveat, China has skin in the global financial game. Particularly with regard to its massive American investments.
Crucially for China though, the standard of living of their average citizen is much lower than their equivalents in the west, and China's ability to contain mass public dissent is arguably higher than that of western countries.
With regard to the global ponzi scheme, (um, global financial system), in my judgement future debt has been pulled forward to such an insane extent - in an attempt by the financial elites to screw yet more profit out of a zero sum game - that massive debt default is now inevitable.
It's a game of pass the parcel, with multiple parcels full of excrement, and perhaps only one or two smelling of roses.
The problem for everyone sitting at the table is how to dump the turds and make a fragrant escape.
All the players are watching the Chinese, checking for any attempt to pass the smelly parcels and head for the exit door. If they're spotted doing this, market confidence will probably collapse and a genuine and catastrophic domino effect will likely ensue.
How non-Chinese market players read this will be the key. On the face of things, it does appear that the Chinese are starting to decouple.
I bet all those western financial thinktanks, with their cliched thinking, are reaching for their copies of Sun Tzu right about now....
tupido2:
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."
Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon
"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."
Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon
"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war