25-07-2023, 12:50 AM
OK. Let's go to another direction. What would falsify each of our positions. I'll go first.
My position is that Russian elites of different stripes want the war over. They don't really care about denazification nor demilitarization of Ukraine, which is why Russia is fighting a non-war. To carry out the stated goals, the nation would have to mobilize. Otherwise, trench warfare continues with no end in sight. The West will just keep adding new wrinkles -- like bringing NATO troops labeled as voluteers.
What falsifies this position. First, a Big Arrow Russian offensive that goes to the Dniepr River from the North and East. Second, another Big Arrow that threatens Kiev. The Ukrainian army has to be crushed and the political center of Ukraine has to be taken out. Third, the major bridges across the Dniepr have to be destroyed.
What confirms my position: peace negotiations begin and there is a peace agreement leaving the Kiev government and the military intact.
My position is that Russian elites of different stripes want the war over. They don't really care about denazification nor demilitarization of Ukraine, which is why Russia is fighting a non-war. To carry out the stated goals, the nation would have to mobilize. Otherwise, trench warfare continues with no end in sight. The West will just keep adding new wrinkles -- like bringing NATO troops labeled as voluteers.
What falsifies this position. First, a Big Arrow Russian offensive that goes to the Dniepr River from the North and East. Second, another Big Arrow that threatens Kiev. The Ukrainian army has to be crushed and the political center of Ukraine has to be taken out. Third, the major bridges across the Dniepr have to be destroyed.
What confirms my position: peace negotiations begin and there is a peace agreement leaving the Kiev government and the military intact.
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I
"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl