Ukraine: Elections or Emergency Rule?

[Peter Presland]

All the exit polls have Yanukovich ahead by a wide margin - in line with pre-election polls. Predictably enough, Flaxen-braided-hair Beauty Tymoshenko indicates she will be a bad loser.

If Yanukovich is confirmed then all talk of Ukrainian accession to NATO stops and Western plans for domination of the Black Sea take a serious hit - as do its rangy, swaggering dealings in the Caucasus and Central Asia generally.

Stand by for the fireworks

This from Reuters:

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich won Sunday's election for president, exit polls said, but likely challenges to results from defeated candidate Yulia Tymoshenko could paralyze the beleaguered country for weeks.
If confirmed, a Yanukovich victory could prompt legal challenges and street protests from Tymoshenko and delay Ukraine's chances of repaying over $100 billion of foreign debt and nursing its sickly economy back to health after a 15 percent collapse last year.
Yanukovich, 59, a beefy ex-mechanic who wants better ties with Moscow, staged a remarkable comeback from a former election disgrace to lead Sunday's runoff vote with 49.8 percent, according to pollsters ICTV.
Former gas tycoon and serving premier Tymoshenko, who led crowds onto the streets in 2004 to strip Yanukovich of victory after a fraudulent election, trailed Sunday with 45.2 percent.
Two other exit polls also pointed to Yanukovich winning.
The exit polls came as voting ended in snowy, sub-zero temperatures in this country of 46 million, and protests from Tymoshenko's camp about alleged violations of election rules began. Official results were expected during Sunday night.
"The involvement of the court is possible, but the huge margin which Yanukovich has cannot be canceled by any court," said close Yanukovich aide Boris Kolesnikov after the exit polls were published.
A Yanukovich win would also mark the end of the country's pro-Western 2004 Orange Revolution, co-led by Tymoshenko and serving President Viktor Yushchenko, and could move the country back toward its former master Russia.
Yushchenko was eliminated from voting in the first round of the election after coming fifth. He led a series of bitter personal attacks on his former ally Tymoshenko.
Sunday's vote appeared to reflect a widespread feeling among Ukrainians that the Orange Revolution failed to deliver prosperity or stability and led to squabbling and crisis.
Voters were unenthusiastic about either candidate but seemed to feel Yanukovich, a former premier who stressed the fight against poverty in his campaign, had the best chance of restoring order.
"We lost five years of our lives thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko," said Oleg Nochvyn, a miner in his 50s in the eastern region of Donetsk.
"For five years they were promising us -- tomorrow will be better. Well, I get up the next day and it's worse than the day before ... Under Viktor Fyodorovich (Yanukovich) we had everything -- economic growth, everything was getting better."
The economy has been battered by a decline in the value of Ukraine's steel and chemicals exports that has hammered the hryvnia currency, slashed budget revenues and undermined the domestic banking system.
"I am sure that the Ukrainian nation deserves a better life," a smiling Yanukovich said casting his ballot. "That is why I have voted for good changes, for stability and for a strong Ukraine."
Regardless of the outcome of Sunday's election, squabbling and intrigue were set to continue.
Before polls closed, Tymoshenko's camp said it would contest results in around 1,000 polling stations in the eastern Donetsk region, the industrial power base of Yanukovich.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksander Turchynov, Tymoshenko's campaign chief, complained of multiple voting and bribery.
Investors want a new president who will be able to resume borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF put lending on hold in frustration at political squabbling and concerns about budget spending.
The 2010 budget has still not been approved and the country has had no confirmed finance minister since February 2009, when veteran Viktor Pynzenyk resigned saying he could no longer do the job amid the political infighting in Kiev.
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Solovyov in Kiev and Lina Kushch in Donetsk; Writing by Michael Stott in Moscow; editing by Ralph Boulton)