29-07-2011, 01:28 PM
by David Cassel
![[Image: new-nasa-data-still-proves-global-warming-is-real.jpg]](http://tech.blorge.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/new-nasa-data-still-proves-global-warming-is-real.jpg)
Yes, there's a glitch in NASA's data about U.S. air temperatures. But the corrected data still shows a warming trend that's unmistakeable.
Many arguments against global warming require a carefully-slanted presentation of the statistics. Here's what global warming skeptics are saying and the evidence from NASA's most recent statistics.
The new figures show global warming is a myth
These new figures don't show anything about global warming. They're exclusively for the United States.
The new figures show a huge discrepancy
Actually, the discrepancy isn't that huge. A climate web site reviewed NASA's figures and reported "an upward discontinuity" which would inflate the reported temperatures by just one degree Centigrade in the winter, and only 0.8 degrees annually.
1998 was not America's hottest year on record
This is true but it's the second hottest year ever recorded in the U.S., and the hottest in the last 73 years.
America's hottest and third-hottest years were before World War II
This is also true. But the second- and fourth-hottest year were in the last nine years (1998 and 2006.) That argument is just a way of re-stating the statistics to downplay the significance of the recent hot years.
For example, at the Daily Tech blog, Michael Asher emphasized that the #1 and #3 slots are taken by 1934 and 1921 but then blithely decided not to mention the #4 slot at all (though 2006 was the fourth-hottest year ever recorded in the United States.)
Sentences can always be constructed in several ways, to either include or exclude the recent hot years. For example, these statements are also true.
5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II.
No one ever disputed there were several very hot years before World War II. In fact, NASA's old statistics had always shown that four of the ten warmest years were pre-World War II. The new stats now just show five hot pre-war years instead four which is hardly a compelling revision.
The years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004 are now below the year 1900 and no longer even in the top 20
I first read this on a blog called Grandma is an Idiot. Another way to phrase that would be "these five years are among the 25 hottest ever recorded" but Grandma Is an Idiot chose to arbitrarily draw their line for a cutoff at "the top 20."
3 (not 9) of the hottest years took place since 1995
NASA's old statistics already showed this to be true, so this statement doesn't reflect any change from our past understanding. Newsbusters makes this argument but it requires a little misdirection. By referring to years "since 1995," you can conveniently leave out 1990, which was one of the eight hottest years ever recorded in the United States.
But there's always going to be a freakishly hot year which is why NASA also calculated the mean temperature over a five-year period of time. If you graph those, you see a pretty clear pattern. Even with the new data, 7 of the hottest 10 five-year periods have still occurred in the last ten years. And we don't have five-year means centered around 2005 and 2006 yet though 2006 has already proven itself to be one of the 10 hottest years (again, using the updated statistics.)
![[Image: global-warming-is-still-real-new-nasa-da...ves-it.jpg]](http://tech.blorge.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/global-warming-is-still-real-new-nasa-data-proves-it.jpg)
Click the image to enlargeThis graph speaks for itself. It shows that even using five-year samples, the deviation from the mean was still a negative number for the twenty years after 1962 (with neglible blips in 1975 and 1979.) But in 1988 the temperature's deviation rises past .5 which it had previously only done during 1931 and 1932. It remains far above the negative deviations of the previous twenty years and then in 1999, sets a new record deviation. This is exceeded only by the 2000 deviation, which was the highest five-year temperature deviation ever recorded. The #3 and #4 slots are taken by the years 2004 and 2001.
We'll have to wait another two years before there's five-year means centered around 2005 and 2006, but 2006 has already proven itself to be one of the 10 hottest years ever. (And yes, that's using the updated statistics.) But the graph of NASA's newest data already shows one important and unmistakeable conclusion.
Seven of the hottest 10 five-year periods have still occurred in the last ten years. 0diggsdigg
Yes, there's a glitch in NASA's data about U.S. air temperatures. But the corrected data still shows a warming trend that's unmistakeable.Many arguments against global warming require a carefully-slanted presentation of the statistics. Here's what global warming skeptics are saying and the evidence from NASA's most recent statistics.
The new figures show global warming is a myth
These new figures don't show anything about global warming. They're exclusively for the United States.
The new figures show a huge discrepancy
Actually, the discrepancy isn't that huge. A climate web site reviewed NASA's figures and reported "an upward discontinuity" which would inflate the reported temperatures by just one degree Centigrade in the winter, and only 0.8 degrees annually.
1998 was not America's hottest year on record
This is true but it's the second hottest year ever recorded in the U.S., and the hottest in the last 73 years.
America's hottest and third-hottest years were before World War II
This is also true. But the second- and fourth-hottest year were in the last nine years (1998 and 2006.) That argument is just a way of re-stating the statistics to downplay the significance of the recent hot years.
For example, at the Daily Tech blog, Michael Asher emphasized that the #1 and #3 slots are taken by 1934 and 1921 but then blithely decided not to mention the #4 slot at all (though 2006 was the fourth-hottest year ever recorded in the United States.)
Sentences can always be constructed in several ways, to either include or exclude the recent hot years. For example, these statements are also true.
- Two of the four hottest years have occurred within the last ten years
- Four of the eight hottest years have occurred since the 90s.
5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II.
No one ever disputed there were several very hot years before World War II. In fact, NASA's old statistics had always shown that four of the ten warmest years were pre-World War II. The new stats now just show five hot pre-war years instead four which is hardly a compelling revision.
The years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004 are now below the year 1900 and no longer even in the top 20
I first read this on a blog called Grandma is an Idiot. Another way to phrase that would be "these five years are among the 25 hottest ever recorded" but Grandma Is an Idiot chose to arbitrarily draw their line for a cutoff at "the top 20."
3 (not 9) of the hottest years took place since 1995
NASA's old statistics already showed this to be true, so this statement doesn't reflect any change from our past understanding. Newsbusters makes this argument but it requires a little misdirection. By referring to years "since 1995," you can conveniently leave out 1990, which was one of the eight hottest years ever recorded in the United States.
But there's always going to be a freakishly hot year which is why NASA also calculated the mean temperature over a five-year period of time. If you graph those, you see a pretty clear pattern. Even with the new data, 7 of the hottest 10 five-year periods have still occurred in the last ten years. And we don't have five-year means centered around 2005 and 2006 yet though 2006 has already proven itself to be one of the 10 hottest years (again, using the updated statistics.)
Click the image to enlargeThis graph speaks for itself. It shows that even using five-year samples, the deviation from the mean was still a negative number for the twenty years after 1962 (with neglible blips in 1975 and 1979.) But in 1988 the temperature's deviation rises past .5 which it had previously only done during 1931 and 1932. It remains far above the negative deviations of the previous twenty years and then in 1999, sets a new record deviation. This is exceeded only by the 2000 deviation, which was the highest five-year temperature deviation ever recorded. The #3 and #4 slots are taken by the years 2004 and 2001.
We'll have to wait another two years before there's five-year means centered around 2005 and 2006, but 2006 has already proven itself to be one of the 10 hottest years ever. (And yes, that's using the updated statistics.) But the graph of NASA's newest data already shows one important and unmistakeable conclusion.
Seven of the hottest 10 five-year periods have still occurred in the last ten years. 0diggsdigg