US/NATO War on Russia

[Lauren Johnson]

Very interesting perspective on where the resistance against the Kiev regime is going. One word: spreading rapidly outside of the Donesk and Lugansk oblasts.

The purple assed mandrill of peace has been spotted among the sunflowers on the steppes of eastern Ukraine… or Novorossiya. There have been only fleeting glimpses so far and no one with open eyes and a clear mind thinks a breeding population will be established anytime soon.



On the plus side, the current ceasefire has seen a significant reduction of the bombardment of Donetsk and Lugansk. The people of Lugansk are starting to clean up their neighborhoods and rebuild. Electricity, water and communication services are beginning to be reestablished. Refugees are returning to their homes. However, neither side sees this truce as a prelude to peace, just a lull before the fighting resumes. The Ukies are using the truce to regroup and redeploy their battered forces. They needed this respite badly. That is what they have done in every other truce they have called. Separatist militia leaders Alexei Mozgovoi and Igor Bezler have noted this and decided to stay on the offensive. Bezler said, "Ukraine's criminal authorities resumed military operations. Now there is no way back for us. There is a long road ahead to Kiev!" That is the general opinion of the separatist fighters.


But the separatists were not, as some have claimed, on the verge of major victory before the ceasefire was agreed to in Minsk. They also needed a respite to regroup and resupply, if not at 1800 GMT on 6 September, then within a few days of that.Their forces are not strong enough to defeat the entire Ukrainian army or make the run to Odessa to create greater Novorossiya. They are spread thin. The inability to quickly reduce the many pockets of Ukie units is evidence of this. Most of the separatist units operate as small saboteur-reconnaissance groups. This is how Mozgovoi described the evolving tactics employed by his Ghost Brigade:


"Here are the outlines of a few situations in which my unit has participated. I will start with the failures the defense of Lisichansk. To suppress our forces, Ukraine threw eleven thousand men at us. Our lack of success was characterized by the fact that we were still true to the original tactics the tactics of a clean fight: creating a clear front, setting up checkpoints. That was a mistake. This war, constructed by Ukies, is built on deceit: from the news to the battlefield; and because we were expecting a clean fight, we suffered casualties. I feel the loss of my men, most severely. For me, a loss of even a few individuals is a painful blow.


"Yes, we have won fights; we pushed the enemy and they have retreated, but they always returned, in greater numbers, with more weaponry. Here is a shining example of this pattern. They set up a checkpoint at Staraya Krasnyanka, between Kremennoye and Rybezhnoye. We worked it over ten times. One day we destroy it; the next morning it is already manned with new people. Today destroy, tomorrow morning new people. Ukies load up Kamaz trucks with corpses and straight away, bring in new personnel new men destined to become corpses the following day.


"The tactics of the Ukrainian army can be summed up in this: they have placed the full weight of war upon the artillery and the rocket launchers. They commence an attack with a purge of territory, which they do using Grads and self-propelled artillery systems.


"They call it targeted attacks but the outcomes of such attacks are huge areas, whole squares swept "clean". Afterwards, the tanks arrive with means to destroy in case anyone is left alive somewhere. Finally, their armored personnel carriers follow, manned with soldiers to finish up. It seems like their tactics are unbeatable. That is the reason why we've changed our own tactics.

"Even though we have grown in numbers, I refuse to send men into the open. We prefer to work in saboteur-reconnaissance groups ("SRG"): they went, they saw, they worked, and they returned. That's all. We work on their communications; we work on their distributions and their ammunition warehouses. If they don't have ammo, they don't have the ability to fire.
"Only yesterday I was informed about the destruction of a column of 10 Urals trucks that were delivering the missiles for the Grads, which were headed toward Donetsk. What can be more effective? Even if they have the launchers, without the shells those are simply piles of scrap metal, ballast. We hit them with RPGs and "Shmels" grenade launchers. [URL="http://slavyangrad.org/2014/08/29/alexei-mozgovoi-freedom-and-conscience-this-will-be-novorossia/"](Colonel Cassad)
[/URL]

Mozgovoi, BTW, is not at all pleased with the Minsk agreement and the bogus ceasefire. Not only did he decide to remain on the offensive after Ukie forces opposing him violated the ceasefire, but he has called for the political leadership of the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics to step down.

The U.S. Marines toyed with this concept in experiments with swarm tactics and distributed operations, which culminated in the HUNTER WARRIOR advanced warfare experiment. Here's a link to download a NPGS thesis entitled "Swarm Tactics and the Doctrinal Void: Lessons from the Chechen Wars." It seems the Russians learned the lessons and passed them on to the militia of Novorossiya. Too bad we went all COIN crazy since then. (The link to this document will immediately go to a Google download page. Don't worry. It's not a virus.)


In spite of their awesome tactics, IMO the militia of Novorossiya was getting dangerously close to overextending themselves. The drive south from Donetsk began with furtive advances by small SRGs along the border. It developed into a dash to the coast before turning west to the gates of Mariupol. SRGs even pushed further west bypassing Mariupol. With Ukie reinforcements moving from throughout Ukraine to Mariupol, those separatists to the far west wisely withdrew. Without the ceasefire, those SRGs probably would have continued west towards the Crimean Isthmus. The Ukie reinforcements would still arrive and the separatists themselves could have been caught in a cauldron of their own.


The half assed ceasefire may have broken the momentum of the separatist counteroffensive, but it did not halt the Novorossiyan resistance. Partisan activity in Kharkov,Odessa and Zaporozhye oblasts is increasing. Kharkov partisans set up a fake CP, halted a convoy of conscripts, disarmed officers, told the rest to go home. Nine of 84 joined the militia. Even Kiev is not immune. One of Yarosh's Pravy Sektor units was attacked and the officers eliminated. If Novorossiya is to be more than the territory they now control, the partisans will play a key part. The partisans and the majority of the Ukrainian people turning on the junta and their extremist legions. The following is a translation of a posting of a Ukrainian junta supporter in Odessa.


To my horror I understand that that only a few patriots work in our schools. Few of those who are true patriots to the depth of their souls. Odessa universities are a separate story. Listen, what is it that we were building over all these years? What can I say to my 14-year-old nephew, who says that in his class only he and another pupil are "for Ukraine", and everybody else "loves Russia"? What can I tell to an acquaintance of mine who is a teacher, who tells me that their director read an "SBU letter" during a meeting of teacher council with a recommendation of not touching the topic of the war and not mentioning the Ukrainian army during the lesson entitled "united Ukraine"? What can I tell to a female teacher, whose colleague hissed to her face: "I'll hang you first once the Russians will arrive!" Galina Z. continues to teach in the Institute of Internal Affairs. The very same person who cried on air in Kiselyov's program (n.b. a popular Russian TV program) and told how people were eaten in the House of Unions, she saw how "nazis wiped their lips with napkins". A couple of months ago I thought that we broke out. But it turned out to be an illusion.
The junta and Nuland's nightmare are quite fragile. Outside the Pravy Sektor and Svoboda extremists and those paid by the U.S. Embassy to protest at the Maidan, IMO the Ukrainians would rather live in peace and be on good terms with the West and Russia… or at least not make enemies of either.
I have only addressed the internal situation in this post. In a day or so, I'll comment on the international aspects.


TTG

Posted at 11:56 PM in Current Affairs, Russia, The Military Art, TTG | Permalink
Reblog (0)

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackbac...dc5fc0970b
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference We Don't Need No Stinkin' Ceasefire! - TTG:

Comments

confusedponderer said...
"IMO the Ukrainians would rather live in peace and be on good terms with the West and Russia… or at least not make enemies of either."
Agreed. The polls from the time before the crisis consistently suggested nothing less: Independence from Russia and no membership in NATO.
That would allow Ukraine to take from both sides what they can get, while both sides have influence but neither side has control. If not for the endemic corruption and the oligarchs, they could do as well as the Finns. What's not to like. Everybody but the nuts could be happy.
But this isn't enough! Our imperial overlords in their fathomless wisdom have passed that the Ukrainians are to choose betwen East and West, and spent 5 billion to make sure the answer ist West. As a result the country has fractured. Which is Moscow's fault for opposing it.

Reply 09 September 2014 at 05:26 AM



Dubhaltach said in reply to confusedponderer...
In reply to confusedponderer 09 September 2014 at 05:26 AM
Ah but "Finlandisation" has always been a dirty word. Didn't you get the memo? Check your inbox - It's the one written in runes on hide and dating back to ....
Dubhaltach

Reply 09 September 2014 at 09:17 AM



Dubhaltach said...
TTG:
I think you might want to check your link to "Swarm Tactics and the Doctrinal Void: Lessons from the Chechen Wars."
Which goes to another document entitled "The Marine Corps Warfighting Laboratory and Concept Based Experimentation:
Armed To Fight in the 21st Century"
A link to the document you cite is this URI:

Given that the length of the link will probably break the site's layout could you please edit it out of this comment once you've altered the URI in your posting?
Dubhaltach

Reply 09 September 2014 at 09:03 AM



The Twisted Genius said in reply to Dubhaltach...
Dubhaltach,
Thanks for that. I fixed the link in the post and removed the long assed URL in your comment.

Reply 09 September 2014 at 09:27 AM



Dubhaltach said...
TTG: I agree with you that the momentum seems to have been lost for the Novorossiyan forces but also that they were in danger of overextending. I find myself wondering whether they came under very strong pressure to agree to a ceasefire from - let us say their backers, precisely in order to allow them to regroup and perhaps re-equip? I'm asking you to speculate I know but I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.
Dubhaltach

Reply 09 September 2014 at 09:15 AM



The Twisted Genius said in reply to Dubhaltach...
Dubhaltach,
I have no doubt there was extreme pressure by Russia. Putin is doing his level best to reduce the risk of nuclear war while still seeking his regional and global objectives. More on that later.

Reply 09 September 2014 at 09:35 AM

[TABLE="class: table"]
[TR]
[TH]Wed[/TH]
[TH]Thu[/TH]
[TH]Fri[/TH]
[TH]Sat[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]21
[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]