Against the Lisbon Treaty

[Peter Presland]

I think the Irish will stick to their guns (er.. no pun intended) and vote against the Lisbon treaty again.

I'd like to think so but I'm not so sure. The last 'NO' vote resulted from an unlikely alliance of reactionary anti-abortion/gay etc uber-faithful catholic loyalists, whipped into line from the pulpit and a mish-mash of mainly Left anti-war, pro-military-neutrality and libertarian interests. Sinn Fein was the only mainstream party opposed as were the minor (non Labour) socialists. The 'Progressive Democrats were in favour - though what on earth could possibly be regarded as either progressive or democratic about the EU is beyond me.

That line up is more or less unchanged but there have been amendments offered aimed at taking the sting out of the Catholic anti-vote (ie the biggest anti-block). The only other real unknown is turnout. It was 53% last time. My family contacts report cynicism and apathy in equal measure. However, my guess the church has been bought off and those whipped into line last time will probably be left to their own devices and either abstain or change sides. The Government are keeping dead quiet but I'd be surprised (and very pleasantly so) if they haven't got it more or less in the bag - and know it.

OTOH - the Irish are an endearingly bloody-minded lot when they sense they're being rail-roaded. Their economy is in an appalling state and likely to get steadily worse through October. That could just put a major anti-Establishment spanner in the works.

For Magda: Regardless of similar earlier EU promise, these days I am in favour of pretty well ANYTHING likely to put a spanner in the works of the converging Big-Three Western Establishment Elite projects - viz The US/UK, the EU and NATO. They are all an anti-democratic sham; combined they spell disaster for the entire planet. IMHO anyway.