NASA study concludes the end is nigh

[David Guyatt]

And the reason:

The elite are so damn greedy and daft that they don't give a damn about the future.

To be perfectly honest, the elite should be placed in residential care and their toys taken away from them. They are the real danger to society.

Nasa-funded study warns of collapse of civilisation' in coming decades



Business as usual' approach of economic elite will lead society to disaster, scientists warn

ADAM WITHNALL

Sunday 16 March 2014

Modern civilisation is heading for collapse within a matter of decades because of growing economic instability and pressure on the planet's resources, according to a scientific study funded by Nasa.

Using theoretical models to predict what will happen to the industrialised world over the course of the next century or so, mathematicians found that even with conservative estimates things started to go very badly, very quickly.
Referring to the past collapses of often very sophisticated civilisations the Roman, Han and Gupta Empires for example the study noted that the elite of society have often pushed for a "business as usual" approach to warnings of disaster until it is too late.
In the report based on his "Human And Nature Dynamical" (Handy) model, the applied mathematician Safa Motesharri wrote: "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history".
His research, carried out with the help of a team of natural and social scientists and with funding from Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center, has been accepted for publication in the Ecological Economics journal, the Guardian reported.
Motesharri explored the factors which could lead to the collapse of civilisation, from population growth to climate change, and found that when these converge they can cause society to break down because of the "stretching of resources" and "the economic stratification of society into Elites' and Masses'".
Using his Handy model to assess a scenario closely resembling the current state of the world, Motesharri found that civilisation "appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among the Masses that eventually causes the collapse of society".
The report stressed, however, that the worst-case scenario of collapse is not inevitable, and called on action now from the so-called real world "Elites" to restore economic balance.
"Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion," the scientists said.
This is not the first time scientists have tried to warn us of potentially impending global disaster. Last year it emerged that Stephen Hawking and a team of Britain's finest minds are drawing up a "doomsday list" of the catastrophic low-risk (but high-impact) events that could devastate the world.

[Charlie Prima]

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[Lauren Johnson]

Notice this "scientific" study was done by a graduate student.

This is completely normal. Most "knowledge" is done by doctoral students. Any papers written will have the supervising professor, whose job is to scrounge up grant money to fund the experiments, has his/her name listed first. Maybe the study is as crappy as you say, but not for the reasons you say it.

[Magda Hassan]

Charlie your post was just a switch and bait. Did not address the original post at all. And as Lauren said all research is done with graduate students. You make it sound as if Motesharrei has just left high school.

[Lauren Johnson]

Charlie your post was just a switch and bait. Did not address the original post at all. And as Lauren said all research is done with graduate students. You make it sound as if Motesharrei has just left high school.

Thanks Magda. One more thing, the reason I know this is because one of my sister-in-laws is a tenured professor at a major USA university. She teachers a little, supervises graduate students in their research, and spends a lot of time getting grants. She has to be a river to her people, or she would not have been tenured.

[Magda Hassan]

Auda abu Tayi and Lauren's sister in law may well be rivers to their people but the elite are not. They hoard it all and think they own it all too. They are self centred parasites and killing our planet and us with it. I agree with David above. We can all do with out them and it is well past time we did. There are other ways of doing business.

[David Guyatt]

Very odd. Now the UN says the end is nigh. Is it coordination or happenchance?

Official prophecy of doom: Global warming will cause widespread conflict, displace millions of people and devastate the global economy






Leaked draft report from UN panel seen by The Independent is most comprehensive investigation into impact of climate change ever undertaken - and it's not good news

TOM BAWDEN

Tuesday 18 March 2014

Climate change will displace hundreds of millions of people by the end of this century, increasing the risk of violent conflict and wiping trillions of dollars off the global economy, a forthcoming UN report will warn.

The second of three publications by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due to be made public at the end of this month, is the most comprehensive investigation into the impact of climate change ever undertaken. A draft of the final version seen byThe Independent says the warming climate will place the world under enormous strain, forcing mass migration, especially in Asia, and increasing the risk of violent conflict.
Based on thousands of peer-reviewed studies and put together by hundreds of respected scientists, the report predicts that climate change will reduce median crop yields by 2 per cent per decade for the rest of the century at a time of rapidly growing demand for food. This will in turn push up malnutrition in children by about a fifth, it predicts.

The report also forecasts that the warming climate will take its toll on human health, pushing up the number of intense heatwaves and fires and increasing the risk from food and water-borne diseases.
While the impact on the UK will be relatively small, global issues such as rising food prices will pose serious problems. Britain's health and environmental "cultural heritage" is also likely to be hurt, the report warns.
According to the draft report, a rare grassy coastal habitat unique to Scotland and Ireland is set to suffer, as are grouse moors in the UK and peatlands in Ireland. The UK's already elevated air pollution is likely to worsen as burning fossil fuels increase ozone levels, while warmer weather will increase the incidence of asthma and hay fever.
Coastal systems and low-lying areas

The report predicts that by the end of the century "hundreds of millions of people will be affected by coastal flooding and displaced due to land loss". The majority affected will be in East Asia, South-east Asia and South Asia. Rising sea levels mean coastal systems and low-lying areas will increasingly experience submergence, coastal flooding and coastal erosion.
Food security

Relatively low local temperature increases of 1C or more above pre-industralised levels are projected to "negatively impact" yields of major crops such as wheat, rice and maize in tropical and temperate regions. The report forecasts that climate change will reduce median yields by up to 2 per cent per decade for the rest of the century against a backdrop of rising demand that is set to increase by 14 per cent per decade until 2050.
The global economy

A global mean temperature increase of 2.5C above pre-industrial levels may lead to global aggregate economic losses of between 0.2 and 2.0 per cent, the report warns. Global GDP was $71.8trn (£43.1trn) in 2012, meaning a 2 per cent reduction would wipe $1.4trn off the world's economic output that year.
Human health

Until mid-century, climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating problems that already exist, the report says. Climate change will lead to increases in ill-health in many regions, with examples including a greater likelihood of injury, disease and death due to more intense heatwaves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition; and increased risks from food and water-borne diseases. Without accelerated investment in planned adaptations, climate change by 2050 would increase the number of undernourished children under the age of five by 20-25 million globally, or by 17-22 per cent, it says.
Human security

Climate change over the 21st century will have a significant impact on forms of migration that compromise human security, the report states. For example, it indirectly increases the risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war, inter-group violence and violent protests by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks.
Small-island states and other places highly vulnerable to sea-level rise face major challenges to their territorial integrity. Some "transboundary" impacts of climate change, such as changes in sea ice, shared water resources and migration of fish stocks have the potential to increase rivalry among states.
Freshwater resources

The draft of the report says "freshwater-related risks of climate change increase significantly with increasing greenhouse gas emissions". It finds that climate change will "reduce renewable surface water and groundwater resources significantly in most dry subtropical regions", exacerbating the competition for water. Terrestrial and freshwater species will also face an increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century.
Unique landscapes

Machair, a grassy coastal habitat found only in north-west Scotland and the west coast of Ireland, is one of the several elements of the UK's "cultural heritage" that is at risk from climate change, the report says. Machair is found only on west-facing shores and is rich in calcium carbonate derived from crushed seashells. It is so rare and special, that a recent assessment by the European Forum on Nature Conservation and Pastoralism described it as an "unknown jewel".
The IPCC also warns of climate threats to Irish peatlands and UK grousemoors and notes an increasing risk to health across Europe from rising air pollution in which the polluted UK is already in serial breach of EU regulations.

[Magda Hassan]

There has been a lot of damage to many food supplies around the world because of the various extreme climate events in most countries. What hasn't been got at by the climate has been fucked over by the futures exchange and the invasion of the energy sector in to the food sector for biodiesel and the carbon trading scam has also played out badly for many poor countries.

[Charlie Prima]

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[Charlie Prima]

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