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Defaulting banks - where will it stop?
#91
Proof that Gordon Brown does not get it, and is in fact stark raving mad. "2007 levels" means the very worst, fundamentally unsustainable, excesses of lending against house prices.

All together now, in a broad Scottish accent (Dad's Army's Private Frazer for us Brits): "We're doooooomed..."

Quote:A government plan for major banks to return mortgage lending to 2007 levels is just a broad aspiration, says the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

The government wants RBS and Lloyds TSB to boost lending to house buyers and small businesses as a condition of its injection of £37bn into the banks.

Earlier, the CML said the plan seemed not to be "prudent or desirable" and called for clarification.

The CML now welcomes the proposal, but confusion still surrounds its terms.

Some £20bn of taxpayers' cash is likely to be pumped into RBS, with a further £17bn to be put into HBOS and Lloyds TSB.

This would give the government a significant stake in the banks, and the government has attached some conditions to this investment.

These include "maintaining, over the next three years, the availability and active marketing of competitively-priced lending to homeowners and to small businesses at 2007 levels".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7667072.stm
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."

Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon

"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
Reply
#92
Ticker Forum's Karl Denninger has today called the Death of America at the hands of Wall Street and the bankers. This is interesting because much of his analysis is very astute, and also because he is a lifelong Republican voter and self-made man:


Quote:America Has Died - To Thunderous Applause

America's House and Senate, just a couple of short weeks ago, passed a law that was denounced by The American People, where representatives and senators were receiving calls 50:50 against - 50% "No" and 50% "Hell No".

In response, Wall Street banks employed spam-call-banks to "counter" this outpouring of public opinion and CEOs of Fortune 500 companies broke the law by sending out emails and other communications that essentially threatened their employees with loss of their job if they did not lobby for this horrible bill to be passed.

The bill passed after Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke threatened Congress with the imposition of Martial Law. Yeah. Tanks in the streets stuff. Literally.

This was disclosed in the well of the house by a few brave representatives, including Representative Sherman.

Were you told this was how Congress was browbeaten into passing this law? Were you told that Congress was essentially threatened that tanks would be deployed into our cities and towns if Congress did not pass this bad law that Paulson and Bernanke demanded?

Well, yes you were. Representative Sherman disclosed this fact in an impassioned speech in the Well of the House.

Did CNBC or CNN report that? No, but CSPAN did carry it.

If you watched.

(YouTube video of Sherman talking of martial law)

But the law was in fact to allow the buying of $700 billion of "troubled mortgages" and related assets.

Or was it?

See, buried in that bill was a nasty little catch-all "any other asset the Treasury says promotes financial stability."

One little sentence, with which you surrendered forever the principles of economic capitalism and replaced them with government totalitarianism.

Fascism.

And a week later half of that money was instead spent on a massive bailout of Wall Street through the injection of perpetual preferred stock, saving every single nickel of executive stock and options. No dilution of existing shareholders, nor any haircut for their bondholders, thereby preventing the capital structure of the firms from absorbing the losses as is intended and required under the law.

In other words, you, The Taxpayer, have been intentionally looted by the puppet-masters at Treasury (Hank Paulson) and The Fed (Bernanke, Geithner, et.al) to the tune of $250 billion dollars, while these folks in the so-called "private sector" keep each and every nickel of the money they stole from you while peddling their fraudulently-sold and packaged subprime and Option ARM mortgages.

Law standing for more than 200 years intended to guarantee that the stockholders and bondholders of a firm stand in a carefully-chosen capital structure as the cushion when a firm becomes incapable of providing for itself was destroyed not through the operation of law or statute, but by executive fiat. Instead of being forced to accept the loss that should have come from the imprudent and even felonious acts of these firms and their executives, we, the taxpayer, are instead having our pockets picked, with our children and grandchildren, along with those not yet born, being forced to absorb the bill. Instead of those stockholders being expected to shoulder the loss as a direct consequence of their refusal to hold management accountable for its bad conduct, we the people are handed that loss in the form of foreclosures, higher interest rates and insane inflationary spirals.

Unlike in Sweden, which had a similar banking crisis, no disclosure of balance sheet "asset values" has been required, no executives were fired, compensation was not clawed back and no executive stock or options were voided. Those who "invested" in these firms were "protected" from the just cost of the foibles and even felonies committed by any and all up and down the chain, and the executives have kept their homes and yachts in The Hamptons - not because they earned them, but because our so-called "government" granted to them a monstrous bailout check written on your wallet, your children and your grandchildren.

You, on the other hand, will get exactly nothing out of this. Not one job will be created. House prices will continue to fall and foreclosures will continue to mount. The "bankruptcy reform" law remains, meaning if you can't pay you will be turned into a perpetual debt slave. The real economy will get nothing from this. Bridges, roads and schools will receive not one nickel from this massive transfer of your money to the wealthy bankers who robbed, cheated and stole from you. States will get nothing, even though their budgets are squeezed as well.

In short, none of the money is going to help you, the consumer, the real economy, or the state in which you live. All of it is being spent to bail out the institutions, shareholders and executives in the firms that intentionally created this mess in the first place by screwing people up and down the line for the previous ten years.

What's worse, by guaranteeing interbank lending if a bank goes down now the government will be on the hook for what could be hundreds of billions of dollars overnight - with no means of escape.

The talking heads all speak this morning about "regulation and oversight", but the implementation of this law is nothing of the kind.

This is in fact a looting of the American Public and Treasury by a law passed under fraudulent pretense and then redirected under even more fraudulent pretense to directly benefit those who just extracted hundreds of billions of dollars from your wallet after robbing you, your children, grandchildren, aunts, uncles, grandmother and grandfather of everything.

If we had an honest government in Washington DC this would result in an instantaneous Bill Of Impeachment for both Paulson and Bush in the House of Representatives and we'd have two candidates for President vowing to reverse all of this on Inauguration Day, irrespective of which one of the two clowns wins.

But we do not - we have a government in Washington DC that has been bought and paid for by the same bankers who just looted you to the tune of $350 billion dollars by literally putting a gun to Congress' head, and they said "sure!"

What's even worse is that we have a citzenry - that is, you - who will sit like a lapdog and take this sort of crap from our government as your savings, retirement and wealth are plundered mercilessly.

You've been violated America, and you have not only tolerated it you've cheered while it happened.

I bet, in fact, you cheered the nearly 1000 point rise in the DOW yesterday, even though it came from the expectation that you would be robbed blind to pay for the foibles of these bankers that arose from their felonious and outrageous conduct.

"America dies to thunderous applause" instead of pitchfork-and-torch-style outrage, which is what we should have seen.

But we won't, will we?

You will cheer because your 401k recovered a bit (never mind that its still down by 1/3rd from last October), and by the time the rest of the value in that account is lost, it will be too late for you to act.

And make no mistake, the DOW and S&P 500 are going lower. Much lower. My targets have been revised; 1070 was my "bear target" last December, but given what we've seen, I must now consider that the 2003 Bear Market lows are not going to hold, and DOW 5,000, S&P 500 at 500, are more realistic targets.

Why?

As a hint of what is to come, Nancy Pelosi has stated that she wants to tax your 401k with a one-time levy or even a levy on appreciation or contribution, never mind that you already pay tax when you withdraw the money to spend in retirement.

The economy will continue to worsen. With essential government funds redirected to pay off the bankers and make sure they don't suffer, you will instead, along with all of the businesses and industry that make this nation great, never mind providing you with a paycheck.

And the bankers? This is a pair of them leaving the Treasury meeting yesterday:

(Photo of grinning bankers leaving Treasury)

Do they look upset with the terms of the deal they were "forced" to take? Or do they look like they just screwed you out of $250 billion dollars and are laughing all the way back to Wall Street?

You have given up your right to object America, because you are not objecting now. You are not in the streets. You are not in DC. You are not raising hell with your elected representatives and the un-elected, appointed smiling faces who just looted you once again, this time to the tune of a quarter of a trillion dollars.

LIBOR came in quite a bit - about 12 basis points for three month money. That's significant, and supports the rally you will see this morning. But the IRX, while it rose to 3.7, remains at "oh my God" levels, well below the 15ish that would suggest normal conditions with a Fed Funds target of 1.5%.

The real casualty is American Capitalism and the American Economy, which will get not one nickel of benefit from this. In due time the market will reflect this, although clearly, it will likely take some time, as I have always called equity traders "short bus" riders, and with good reason.

The insane amount of treasury bond issuance necessary to support this will cause the long end of the curve to rocket higher, a move that began today with the TNX now standing proud over 4%. This means higher borrowing costs for you, despite what you're being told, and that in turn means lower values for your house. That's right - your house is going to go down further in value, not "stabilize" or "increase". That's the hidden way they will pay for this - on your back - by forcing the value of your house down via materially higher borrowing costs. This will begin immediately; that 6% rate you've seen recently will soon be history.

So my advice is to use this rally to raise cash.

You're going to need it, as this rally is likely to have less staying power than you would like, and the real economy, which was thrown under the bus this morning to bail out of the rich bankers, will soon reflect reality.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."

Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon

"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
Reply
#93
If the following came to pass, it would represent cast-iron confirmation that we're in the middle of a banker's coup.

It's being leaked that Obama will pick Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan - the notorious House of Morgan - to be his Treasury Secretary.

It's equivalent to making Mr George Bush of the CIA the President of the USA.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pr...3FA337E6E3}

Quote:AVID WEIDNER'S WRITING ON THE WALL
The next Treasury Secretary is...
Commentary: J.P. Morgan's Jamie Dimon is the leading candidate

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Barring an October surprise, the fall election has all but been decided. The next question on Wall Street is whom President Obama will install as Henry Paulson's successor as head of the Treasury Department.
Though no decision has been made, the rumor is that the Obama camp has already reached out to its first choice. The eye-popper is that the potential pick -- Jamie Dimon -- has signaled an interest in the job.
A spokesman at Dimon's current employer, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM:
JPMorgan Chase & Co) declined to comment. So did the Obama campaign.
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."

Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon

"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
Reply
#94
Jan Klimkowski Wrote:If the following came to pass, it would represent cast-iron confirmation that we're in the middle of a banker's coup.

It's being leaked that Obama will pick Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan - the notorious House of Morgan - to be his Treasury Secretary.

It's equivalent to making Mr George Bush of the CIA the President of the USA.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pr...3FA337E6E3}

When have we NOT been in the middle of a 'banker's coup'?!...one would have to go back a LOOOOOONG time - maybe some centuries - or more.
Reply
#95
Peter Lemkin Wrote:"When have we NOT been in the middle of a 'banker's coup'?!...one would have to go back a LOOOOOONG time - maybe some centuries - or more."

Ain't that the truth!

Below is the article that turned my head around in 1995, and lends credence to the words of George Santyana:

"Those who fail to learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them."

650 Years Ago:
How Venice Rigged the First, and Worst, Global Financial Crash


by Paul Gallagher
Printed in the American Almanac, September 4, 1995.

Venice: The Oligarchical System

Six hundred and fifty years ago came the climax of the worst financial collapse in history to date. The 1930s Great Depression was a mild and brief episode, compared to the bank crash of the 1340s, which decimated the human population.

The crash, which peaked in 1345 A.D. when the world's biggest banks went under, "led'' by the Bardi and Peruzzi companies of Florence, Italy, was more than a bank crash -- it was a financial disintegration. Like the disaster which looms now, projected in Lyndon LaRouche's "9th Economic Forecast'' of July, 1994, that one was a blowup of all major banks and markets in Europe, in which, chroniclers reported, "all credit vanished together,'' most trade and exchange stopped, and a catastrophic drop of the world's population by famine and disease loomed.

Like the financial disintegration hanging over us in late 1994 and 1995 with the collapse of Mexico, Orange County, British merchant banks, etc., that one of the 1340s was the result of 30-40 years of disastrous financial practices, by which the banks built up huge fictitious "financial bubbles,'' parasitising production and real trade in goods. These speculative cancers destroyed the real wealth they were monopolizing, and caused these banks to be effectively bankrupt long before they finally went under.

The critical difference between 1345 and 1995, was that in the fourteenth century there were as yet no nations. No governments had the national sovereignty to control the banks and the creation of credit; or, to force these banks into bankruptcy in an orderly way, and replace fictitious bank credit and money with national credit. Nor was the Vatican, the world leadership of the Catholic Church, fighting against the debt-looting of the international banks then as it is today; in fact, at that time it was allied with, aiding, and abetting them.

The result was a disaster for the human population, which fell worldwide by something like 25 percent between 1300 and 1450 (in Europe, by somewhere between 35 percent and 50 percent from the 1340s collapse to the 1440s).

This global crash, caused by the policies and actions of banks which finally completely bankrupted themselves, has been blamed by historians ever since on a king -- poor Edward III of England. Edward revolted against the seizure and looting of his kingdom by the Bardi and Peruzzi banks, by defaulting on their loans starting in 1342. King Edward's national budget was dwarfed by that of either the Bardi or Peruzzi; in fact, by 1342 his national budget had become a subdepartment of theirs. Their internal memos in Florence spoke of him contemptuously as 'Messer Edward', "We shall be fortunate to recover even a part of his debts.", they sniffed in 1339.

A "free trade'' mythology has been developed by historians about these "sober, industrious, Christian bankers'' of Italy in the fourteenth century "doing good'' by their own private greed; developing trade and the beginnings of capitalist industry by seeking monopolies for their family banks; somehow existing in peace with other merchants, and expiating their greedy sins by donations to the Church.

But, goes the myth, these sober bankers were led astray by kings (accursed governments!) who were spendthrift, warlike, and unreliable in paying their debts which they forced the helpless or momentarily foolish bankers to lend them. Thus, emerging "private enterprise capitalism'' was set back by the disaster of the fourteenth century, concludes the classroom myth, noting in passing that 30 million people died in Europe in the ensuing Black Death, famine, and war. If only the "sober, Christian'' bankers had stuck to industrious "free trade'' and prosperous city-states, and never gotten entangled with warlike, spendthrift kings!

The Real Story

Two recent books help to turn over this cover story, though perhaps that is beyond the intention of their authors. Edwin Hunt's 1994 book The Medieval Supercompanies: A Study of the Peruzzi Company of Florence, establishes that this great bank was losing money and effectively going bankrupt throughout the late 1330s, as a result of its own destructive policies -- in Europe's agricultural credit and trade in particular -- before it ever dealt with Edward III.

"Indeed, the great banking companies were able to survive past 1340 only because news of their deteriorated position had not yet circulated....''

Just as in 1995.

And Hunt adds a shocker for the historians, based on exhaustive restudy of all the surviving correspondence and ledgers of the Bardi and Peruzzi. He concludes that their lending to King Edward III was done with such brutal "conditionalities'' -- seizing and looting his revenues that his true debt to them may have been no more than 15-20,000 pounds sterling when he defaulted. Mr. Hunt himself works for an international bank, so he knows how such "conditionalities'' of lending work today. He probably knows that the true international debt of Third World countries today is a small fraction of what the banks and the International Monetary Fund claim they owe. He definitely understands that fourteenth century England was a Third World country to the Bardi and Peruzzi and Acciaiuoli international banks. They loaned Edward II and Edward III far less than their promises -- but their promises have been dutifully added up as "total loans'' by historians, starting with their fellow banker Giovanni Villani.

Even if we accept the highest figures ever given for Edward III's 1345 default against the bankers of Florence, the debt to them of the city government of Florence which they controlled, was 35 percent greater, and those bonds also defaulted.

More revealing is the latest work of the historian of Venice, Frederick C. Lane, Money and Banking in Medieval and Renaissance Venice. This work shows that it was Venetian finance which, by dominating and controlling a huge international "bubble'' of currency speculation from 1275 through 1350, rigged the great collapse of the 1340s. Rather than sharing the peace of mutual greed and free enterprise with their "allies''-- the bankers of Florence -- the merchants of Venice bankrupted them, and the economies of Europe and the Mediterranean along with them.

Florence was the fourteenth century "New York,'' the apparent center of banking with the world's biggest banks. But Venice was "London,'' manipulating Florentine bankers, kings, and emperors alike, by tight knit financial conspiracy and complete dominance of the markets by which money was minted and credit created.

As long ago as the 1950s, in fact, one historian Fernand Braudel consciously demonstrated that Venice, leading the Italian bankers of Florence, Genoa, Siena, etc., willfully intervened from the beginning of the thirteenth century to destroy the potential emergence of national governments, "modern states foreshadowed by the achievements of Frederick II.''

Frederick II Hohenstauffen was the Holy Roman Emperor in the first half of the thirteenth century, an able successor of Charlemagne's earlier achievements in spreading education , agricultural progress, population growth, and strong government. The great Dante wrote De Monarchia in a vain attempt to revive the potential of imperial government based on divine law and natural law, which had been identified with Frederick's reign.

Wrote Braudel:

"Venice had deliberately ensnared all the surrounding subject economies, including the German economy, for her own profit; she drew her living from them, preventing them from acting freely.... The fourteenth century saw the creation of such a powerful monopoly to the advantage of the city-states of Italy ... that the embryo territorial states like England, France and Spain necessarily suffered the consequences.''

In addition to what Braudel shows, Venice intervened to stop the accession of the great Alfonso the Wise of Spain, as successor to Emperor Frederick II.

This triumph of "free trade'' over the potential for national government, rigged the fourteenth century's global human catastrophes, the worst onslaught of death and depopulation in history. It was not until the Renaissance created the French nation state under Louis XI, 100 years later, and then England under Henry VII, and the Spain of Ferdinand and Isabel, that the human population could recover.

Population: The Fundamental Measure

The clearest measure of the destruction wrought by the merchants and bankers of Venice and its "allies'' in the financial crash of the fourteenth century, is shown in Figure 1. What had been 400-600 years of increasing population growth in Europe, China, and India (altogether, three-fourths of the human population) was reversed. The world's population collapsed. Famines, bubonic and pneumonic plagues, and other epidemics killed more than 100 million people. Wars, dominated by military slaughters of civilians as in Rwanda and Bosnia today, raged throughout Eurasia; Mongol armies alone slaughtered between 5 and 10 million people.

This depopulation did not begin with the 1340s banking crash, although it accelerated after that for nearly a century. The policies of Venetian-allied finance were already reversing human population growth for 40-60 years before their speculative cancer completely exhausted what it monopolized, bringing on the 1340s rolling crash of all major banks which had not collapsed earlier.

How did free enterprise finance, with no government able to control it, collapse all the economies of the Eurasian continent? How could banks concentrated in one part of Europe -- tiny on the scale of modern banks work such a global catastrophe?

A Cancer on Production

In the eleventh, twelfth, and into the thirteenth centuries the growth and development of population both in Europe and particularly in China was accelerating. China's population doubled in 200 years during the "neoConfucian'' renaissance of the S'ung Dynasty, to 120 million; the population density of northern France and northern Italy began to approximate the levels these regions have today.

After the collapse and depopulation of the Roman Empire long before (300-600 A.D.), Europe's population had been growing at a steadily increasing rate for 700 years up to 1300 A.D., due to huge increases in the amount of agricultural land productively cultivated. In addition, there had been several periods in which the rural technologies for using the plow, seed, animal power, water power, and wind power, leaped forward. Classical education of youth in monastery schools (oblates) was spreading up through the twelfth century, when the great cathedral building movement arose in France.

These advances spread particularly rapidly due to the impetus of Charlemagne and his English and Italian allies from 750-900, and then again from 1100-1250, the period of the Hohenstauffen Holy Roman Emperors in Germany, Italy, and Sicily, ending with Frederick II.

But about the turn of the fourteenth century, the growth of food production and of population stopped in Europe. (China's population was already being devastated, on which more below.) There were major famines (multiple successive crop failures or extreme shortages) in 1314-17; in 1328-29; and in 1338-39. One historian concludes that:

"We gather from (the Italian chronicler) Villani's statements that a scarcity of more or less severe character put in an appearance about three times each decade. About once each decade the scarcity became so intense as to assume the proportions of a famine.''

The most productive rural regions of northern Italy and northern France began to be depopulated from about 1290 onward, while the towns and cities' population merely stagnated. (The Milan region was the counterexample, due to aggressive construction of government infrastructure, water control works, 3,000 hospital beds in the city for 150,000 people).

The production of wool in England began to decline from about 1310. English and Spanish wool were the basis of European clothing production, although cotton cloth was just beginning to be produced.

"In England, beginning with the reign of Edward I (1291 to 1310) and reaching a climax with Edward III, the Bardi and Peruzzi had acquired a status that gave them a practical monopoly of the procuring and export of wool....''

From 1150 onward, the famous Champagne Fairs had been the hub of trading in cloth and clothing, ironwork, woodwork, wool, agricultural implements and food for all of Europe; year round fairs were held in six cities in the Champagne region around Paris. Merchants had been accustomed to make profits of 34 percent annually in hard cash and goods trading here.

The Venetian and Florentine bankers intervened into these fairs with large amounts of credit, bank branches, and with luxury goods "from the East,'' and took them over. By 1310, an Italian banker from Lucca boasted that he could raise 200,000 French livres tournois in credit on the spot at the Fair of Troyes but the actual trade in physical goods at the fairs was declining.

Hunt's analysis of the successive sets of books of the Peruzzi bank shows that the Florentine bankers expected 810 percent annual profits up to 1335. This was far above the rate at which the physical economy of Europe was producing real surplus, and that physical rate of production was falling. The Venetians expected much higher rates of profit still, for reasons outlined below.

"At the end of the thirteenth century a slowdown in trade hit commodities first; credit operations kept going longer, but the fairs went into severe decline,'' wrote Braudel.

In the late 1330s, the beginning of the 100 Years War between England and France led to the clothing industry of Flanders the main clothing production region of Europe being boycotted and completely shut off from wool; by the late 1340s, this industry was in complete decline, and was actually moving out of the towns and cities into tiny "cottage industries'' in the countryside.

On top of all this, from the 1320s on, there was a "massive flight of silver oltremare ("over the sea,'' that is, to Venice's maritime empire in the Middle East and Byzantium) which upset the equilibrium of Europe in the mid-fourteenth century.'' Venetian exports of silver from Europe from 1325-50 equaled "perhaps 25 percent of all the silver being mined in Europe at that time.''

Standard silver coin had been the stable currency of the Holy Roman Empire in Europe, and of England, since Charlemagne's time. This massive export from Venice to the East "created chronic balance of payments problems as far away as England and Flanders,'' and severe problems in making payments in trade. France "was emptied of silver coinage.'' King Phillip's mintmaster estimated that 100 tons of silver had been exported "to the land of the Saracens'' (the Islamic Middle East).

So production of the most vital commodities in Europe had been severely reduced, and the trade and circulation of its money completely disrupted, over decades before the 1340s crash, by Italian banks which appeared to be making usurious rates of profit. "The Florentine supercompanies resembled very closely in their operations the huge international grain companies of today, such as Cargill and Archer-Daniels Midland,'' writes Hunt.

"They used loans to monarchs to dominate and control trade in certain vital commodities, especially grain, and later wool and cloth.'' Their dominance and speculation progressively reduced the production of these commodities.

We can see this in more detail, but keeping in mind that the story of the Florentine bankers and the fourteenth century crash and Black Death, is itself a cover-up. These bankers were operating on an international scale limited to Western Europe and some Mediterranean islands.

The maritime/financial empire of Venice -- and Venice only -- was speculating on the scale of all of the Eurasian landmass, and on this evidence alone, it had to be the merchants of Venice which rigged the devastation and depopulation of the majority of the human race in the fourteenth century. The Florentine bankers were sharks swimming in Venice's seas.

The catastrophe of the Black Death in Europe, so often described, was exceeded by death rates in China and Islamic regions under the homicidal rule of the Mongol Khans from 1250, until nearly 1400. The Islamic chronicler Ibn Khaldun wrote:

"Civilization both in the East and the West was visited by a destructive plague which devastated nations and caused populations to vanish.... Civilization decreased with the decrease of mankind.''

Venice was also the "banker,'' slave market, and intelligence support service for the Mongol Khans.

The Black Guelph

The Bardi, Peruzzi, and Acciaiuouli family banks, along with other large banks in Florence and Siena in particular, were all founded in the years around 1250. In the 1290s they grew dramatically in size and rapaciousness, and were reorganized, by the influx of new partners.

These were "Black Guelph'' noble families, of the faction of northern Italian landed aristocracy always bitterly hostile to the government of the Holy Roman Empire. Charlemagne, 500 years earlier, had already recognized Venice as a threat equal to the Vikings, and had organized a boycott to try to bring Venice to terms with his Empire.

Venice in 1300 was the center of the Black Guelph faction which drove Dante and his co-thinkers from Florence. In opposition to Dante's work De Monarchia, a whole series of political theorists of "Venice, the ideal model of government'' were promoted in north Italy: Bartolomeo of Lucca, Marsiglio of Padua, Enrico Paolino of Venice, etc., all based on Aristotle's Politics which was translated into Latin for the purpose.

The same "coup'' made the Bardi, Peruzzi, etc. Black Guelph banking "supercompanies,'' suddenly two or three times their previous size and branch structure. Machiavelli describes how by 1308, the Black Guelph ruled everywhere in northern Italy except in Milan, which remained allied with the Holy Roman Empire, and was the most economically developed and powerful city-state in fourteenth century Italy.

The charter of the Parte Guelfa openly claimed that it was the party of the papacy, and with Venice, the Black Guelph openly pushed for the Popes to change usury from a mortal (major) sin to a venial (minor) sin. Lane remarks that the Venetians seemed to enjoy an effective exemption from the Catholic Popes' injunctions against usury, and also from their ban on trading with the infidel -- the Seljuk and Mamluk regimes of Egypt and Syria.

A century earlier, in the 1180s, Doge (Duke) Ziani of Venice had provoked hostilities between the two leaders of Christendom, the Pope and the Holy Roman Emperor, Frederick Barbarossa, the grandfather of Frederick II. Doge Ziani, in time-worn Venetian style, then personally mediated the "Peace of Constance'' between the Pope and the Emperor. The doge got his enemy, Emperor Frederick, to agree to withdraw his standard silver coinage from Italy, and allow the Italian cities to mint their own coins.

Over the century from that 1183 Peace of Constance to the 1290s, Venice established the extraordinary, near-total dominance of trading in gold and silver coin and bullion throughout Europe and Asia, which is documented in Frederick Lane's book. Venice broke and replaced the European silver coinage of the Holy Roman Emperors, the Byzantine Empire's silver coinage, and eventually broke the famous Florentine "gold florin'' in the decades immediately leading into the 1340s financial blowout -- which blew out all the financiers except the Venetians.

Privatization

The Black Guelph bankers of Florence did not simply loan money to monarchs, and then expect repayment with interest. In fact, interest was often "officially'' not charged on the loans, since usury was considered a sin and a crime among Christians. Rather, like the International Monetary Fund today, the banks imposed "conditionalities'' on the loans.

The primary conditionality was the pledging of royal revenues directly to the bankers -- the clearest sign that the monarchs lacked national sovereignty against the Black Guelph "privateers.'' Since in fourteenth century Europe, important commodities like food, wool, clothing, salt, iron, etc. were produced only under royal license and taxation, bank control of royal revenue led to, first, private monopolization of production of these commodities, and second, the banks' "privatization'' and control of the functions of royal government itself.

By 1325, for example, the Peruzzi bank owned all of the revenues of the Kingdom of Naples (the entire southern half of Italy, the most productive grain belt of the entire Mediterranean area); they recruited and ran King Robert of Naples' army, collected his duties and taxes, appointed the officials of his government, above all sold all the grain from his kingdom. They egged Robert on to continual wars to conquer Sicily, because through Spain, Sicily was allied with the Holy Roman Empire. Thus, Sicily's grain production, which the Peruzzi did not control, was reduced by war.

King Robert's Anjou relatives, the Kings of Hungary, had their realm similarly "privatized'' by the Florentine banks in the same period. In France, the Peruzzi were the cooperating bank (creditor) of the bankers to King Philip IV, the infamous Franzezi bankers "Biche and Mouche'' (Albizzo and Mosciatto Guidi).

The Bardi and Peruzzi banks, always in a ratio of 3 to 2 for investments and returns, "privatized'' the revenues of Edward II and Edward III of England, paid the King's budget, and monopolized the sales of English wool. Rather than paying interest (usury) on his loans, Edward III gave the Bardi and Peruzzi large "gifts'' called "compensations'' for the hardships they were supposedly suffering in paying his budget; this was in addition to assigning them his revenues.

When King Edward tried forbidding Italian merchants and bankers to expatriate their profits from England, they converted their profits into wool and stored huge amounts of wool at the "monasteries'' of the Order of Knights Hospitalers, who were their debtors, political allies, and partners in the monopolization of the wool trade.

It was the Bardi's representatives who proposed to Edward III, the wool boycott which destroyed the textile industry of Flanders -- because by 1340 it was the only way to continue to raise wool prices in a desperate attempt to increase King Edward's income flow, which was all assigned to the Bardi and Peruzzi for his debts! Genoese bankers largely controlled the royal revenues of the Kingdom of Castille in Spain, Europe's other supplier of wool, by 1325.

In the first few years of the 100 Years War, which began in 1339, the Florentine financiers imposed on England a rate of exchange which overvalued their currency, the gold florin, by 15 percent relative to English coin. Edward III, in effect, now got 15 percent less for his monopolized wool. Edward tried to counterattack by minting an English florin: the merchants, organized by the Florentines, refused it, and he was defeated. By this action, the Bardi and Peruzzi themselves, in effect, provoked Edward's famous default, and demonstrated his complete lack of sovereignty at the same time.

Even the famous account, by banker and chronicler Giovanni Villani, of Edward III's default which triggered the final crash, acknowledges that his debt to the Bardi and Peruzzi included huge amounts he had already paid -- the curious arithmetic of the IMF to Third World debtors today:

"The Bardi found themselves to be his creditors in more than 180,000 marks sterling. And the Peruzzi, more than 135,000 marks sterling, which ... makes a total of 1,365,000 gold florins -- as much as a kingdom is worth. This sum included many purveyances made to them by the king in the past, but, however that may be....''

Even larger revenue flows came to the Vatican in the collection of its church contributions and tithes. Under John XXII, the Black Guelph Pope from 1316-1336, "papal tithes skyrocketed,'' reaching the apparent value of 250,000 gold florins per year. All were collected by agents of the Venetian banks (for France, the largest source of papal revenue) and the Bardi bank (for everywhere else in Europe except Germany). They charged the Vatican sizable "exchange fees'' to transfer the collections.

"Only they [the Venice-allied bankers] had the reserves of cash at Avignon [in France, temporary seat of the papacy for about 70 years] and in Italy, to finance papal operations. They transferred collections from Europe, and loaned them to the Popes in advance.''

Thus, Venice controlled the papal credit, and the continuing hostilities between the papacy and the Holy Roman Emperors.

Perpetual Rents

In Italy itself, these bankers loaned aggressively to farmers and to merchants and other owners of land, often with the ultimate purpose of owning that land. This led by the 1330s to the wildfire spread of the infamous practice of "perpetual rents,'' whereby farmers calculated the lifetime rent-value of their land and sold that value to a bank for cash for expenses, virtually guaranteeing that they would lose the land to that bank. As the historian Raymond de Roover demonstrated, the practices by which the fourteenth century banks avoided the open crime of usury, were worse than usury.

In the Italian city-states themselves, the early years of the fourteenth century saw the assignment of more and more of the revenues of the primary taxes (gabelle, or sales and excise taxes) to the bankers and other Guelph Party bondholders.

From about 1315, the Guelph abolished the income taxes (estimi) in the city, but increased them (estimi) on the surrounding rural areas into which they expanded their authority. Thus, because the bankers, merchants, and wealthy Guelph aristocrats did not pay taxes -- instead, they made loans (prestanze) to the city and commune governments.

In Florence, for example, the effective interest rate on this Monte ("mound'' of debt) had reached 15 percent by 1342; the city debt was 1,800,000 gold florins, and no clerical complaints against this usury were being raised. The gabelle taxes were pledged for six years in advance to the bondholders. At that point, Duke Walter of Brienne, who had briefly become dictator of Florence, cancelled all revenue assignments to the bankers (defaulted, exactly like Edward III).

Thus were the rural, food-producing areas of Italy depopulated and ruined in the first half of the fourteenth century. The fertile Contado (county) of Pistoia around Florence, for example, which reached a population density of 6065 persons per square kilometer in 1250, had fallen to 50 persons/square kilometer in 1340; in 1400, after 50 years of Black Plague, its population density was 25 persons/square kilometer. The famines of 1314-17, 1328-9, and 1338-9 were not "natural disasters.''

Some of the famous banks of Tuscany had failed already in the 1320s: the Asti of Siena, the Franzezi, the Scali company of Florence. In the 1330s, the biggest banks, with the exception of the Bardi, (the Peruzzi, Acciaiuoli, Buonacorsi) were losing money and plunging toward bankruptcy with the fall in production of the vital commodities which they had monopolized, and which their cancer of speculation was devouring.

The Acciaiuoli and the Buonacorsi, who had been bankers of the Vatican before it left Rome, went bankrupt in 1342 with the default of the city of Florence and the first defaults of Edward III. The Peruzzi and Bardi, the world's two largest banks, went under in 1345, leaving the entire financial market of Europe and the Mediterranean shattered, with the exception of the much smaller Hanseatic League bankers of Germany, who had never allowed the Italian banks and merchant companies to enter their cities.

Already in 1340, a deadly epidemic -- unidentified but not bubonic plague -- had killed up to 10 percent of many urban populations in northern France, and 15,000 Florentines had died out of 90-100,000 that year. In 1347, the Black Plague, which had already killed 10 million in China, began to sweep over Europe.

Venice, the World's Mint

"Venice,'' wrote Braudel:

"...was the greatest commercial success of the Middle Ages -- a city without industry, except for naval-military construction, which came to bestride the Mediterranean world and to control an empire through mere trading enterprise. In the fourteenth century she was in the ascendant to her greatest periods of success and power.''

And most importantly, Frederick Lane writes:

"Venice's rulers were less concerned with profits from industries than with profits from trade between regions that valued gold and silver differently.''

Between 1250 and 1350, Venetian financiers built up a worldwide financial speculation in currencies and gold and silver bullion, similar to the huge speculative cancer of "derivatives contracts'' today. This ultimately dwarfed and controlled the speculation in debt, commodities, and trade of the Bardi, Peruzzi, et al. It took all control of coinage and currency from the monarchs of the time.

The banks of Venice were deceptively smaller and less conspicuous than the Florentine banks, but in fact had much greater resources for speculation at their disposal. The Venetian financial oligarchy as a whole, which ruled a maritime empire through small executive committees under the guise of a republic, centralized and supported its own speculative activities as a whole.

The "Republic'' built the ships and auctioned them to the merchants; escorted them with large, well-armed naval convoys of their empire, with naval commanders responsible to the "Committee of 10'' and the magistrates for the convoys' safety. This same oligarchy maintained several public mints and did everything possible to foster the centralization of gold and silver trading and coinage in Venice.

As Frederick Lane demonstrates, this was the dominant trade of Venice by no later than 1310. Like today's "mega-speculators'' in currencies and derivatives, such as the Morgan and Rothschild-backed George Soros and Marc Rich, the Venetian banks and bullion-dealers were backed by large pools of capital and protection.

The size of the Venetian bullion trade was huge: twice a year a "bullion fleet'' of up to 20-30 ships under heavy naval convoy, sailed from Venice to the eastern Mediterranean coast or to Egypt, bearing primarily silver; and sailed back to Venice bearing mainly gold, including all kinds of coinage, bars, leaf, etc.

The profits of this trade put usury in the shade, though the merchants of Venice were also unbridled in that practice. Surviving instructions of Venetian financiers to their trading agents in these fleets, specify that they expected a minimum rate of profit of 8 percent on each six-month voyage from the exchange of gold and silver alone: 1620 percent annual profit.

One astonishing speech to the Council of 10 by Doge Thomasso Mocenigo, from a time after the 1340s financial crash, goes further. Compare the magnitude of these figures to those discussed earlier for the Papacy, for England, for Florence (keeping in mind that the Venetian standard coin, the gold ducat, was roughly comparable to the Florentine gold florin):

"In peacetime this city puts a capital of 10 million ducats into trade throughout the world with ships and galleys, so that the profit of export is two million, the profit of import is two million, export and import together four million [from the two annual voyages, 40 percent profit --PG].... You have seen our city mint every year 1,200,000 in gold, 800,000 in silver, of which 5,000 marks (20,000 ducats) go annually to Egypt and Syria, 100,000 to your places on the mainland of Italy, to your places beyond the sea 50,000 ducats, to England and France each 100,000 ducats...''

How was this possible? Not by private enterprise, but by imperial Venetian "state usury.'' The gold from the East was being looted out of China (until then the world's richest economy) and India by the murderous Mongol empires, or being mined in Sudan and Mali in Africa and sold to Venetian merchants, in exchange for greatly overvalued European silver.

The silver from the West was being mined in Germany, Bohemia, and Hungary, and sold more and more exclusively to Venetians with bottomless supplies of gold at their disposal. Coinages not of Venetian origin were disappearing, first in the Byzantine empire in the twelfth century, then in the Mongol domains, then in Europe in the fourteenth century.

Crusades and Mongols

The so-called Christian Crusades (the first in 1099, the seventh and last major one in 1291) had had only one strategic effect: expanding and strengthening the maritime commercial empire of Venice to the East. Venice provided the ships to take the Crusaders to the Middle East; Venice loaned them money, and Venetian Doges often told them what cities to try to capture or sack. Through the Crusades, Venice gained effective control of the cities of Tyre, Sidon, and Acre in Lebanon and Lajazzo in Turkey, and strengthened its domination of commerce through Constantinople. These were the coastal entry-points for the "Silk Routes'' through the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions to China and India. During the Mongol Empires (1230-1370), these routes were virtual "Roman Roads'' maintained by Mongol cavalry.

The empire of the Mongol Khans was for a century the largest and most murderous empire in human history. The Mongols eliminated, by slaughter and disease directly in their domains, perhaps 15 percent of the world's population, and destroyed all the greatest cities from China west to Iraq and north to Russia and Hungary -- including all the trading cities whose competition bothered Venice. The strategic alliance between Venice and the Mongol Khans, up to and through the financial collapse of the 1340s, has been treated as a historical curiosity of the adventures of Marco Polo's family. But it gave Venice final control of the trade to the East, and along with the trade through Egypt for the gold mined in Sudan and Mali, it gave them huge amounts of gold with which to dominate world currency trading in the decades leading to the financial disintegration of the fourteenth century.

The Mongols, in their genocidal rule of China, looted all the gold of S'ung China and of the part of India under their control, replacing it with silver currency, and for the lower castes (i.e., the Chinese), with paper money. Mongol middlemen met Venetian merchants at the Mongol-ruled Persian trading cities of Tabriz and Trebizond, and the Black Sea port of Tana, and traded gold for silver from Europe. A large-scale trade in slaves from Mongol domains was associated with this currency trading. This was the so-called "tanga gold,'' from the tanghi or uncoined pieces bearing the seal of the Mongol Khans, as well as bar and leaf gold. The silver was in small Venetian ingots called sommi, which "were the common medium of exchange throughout the Mongol and Tatar Khanates.... [T]he demand for silver in the Far East was continually increasing,'' writes Lane. "The Venetians were able to raise the price of silver despite the existence of record quantities'' coming to Venice from Europe.

The Crusades also consolidated the alliance of Venice and its allied Black Guelph-ruled cities, the Papacy, and the Norman and Anjou kings, against the Holy Roman Empire centered in Germany, which Dante and his allies were struggling to restore to its potential. By the late thirteenth century, the Mongols were a conscious part of this Venetian-led alliance, and the Mongol rulers of Persia even proposed Crusades to the European kings and the Popes! Pope John XXII granted Venice alone the license to trade with the infidel Mamluk sultans of Egypt in the 1330s. This was overvalued European silver and Mongol slaves for gold from Sudan and Mali.

"Derivatives"

Thus, in the late thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, Venice provided all the coinage and currency-exchange for the largest empire in history, which was looting and destroying the populations under its rule. Venice had taken over the currency trading and coining of what remained of the Byzantine Empire, and also of the Mamluk Sultanates in North Africa. Venice, over this period, took the East off a gold standard and put it on a silver standard (it was the richer region of the world, and being more intensively looted). It took Byzantium and Europe off a 500-year old silver standard and put them on gold standards.

And the Venetian financiers and merchants were making annual rates of profit of up to 40 percent on very large, overwhelmingly short-term (six-month) investments, in a world economy characterized at its most productive, by perhaps 34 percent annual rates of real physical ``free energy'': surplus wealth (see Figure 2). The other Black Guelph Italian bankers' operations were subsumed by Venetian financial manipulations, but they were also realizing rates of profit far above the rate of physical reproduction of the economies of Europe. Because of the dominance of these speculative cancers, all the major real physical economies were shrinking.

What was the effect of this Venetian global currency speculation on the European economies before the 1340s crash and the Black Death? It was the short-term vise that caught the other European bankers and rigged the crash itself.

From 1275-1325, the ratio of the average gold price, to the average silver price, steadily rose, though with continual short-term fluctuations, from about 8:1 to, finally, about 15:1. In this period, Europe's large production of silver was looted through Venice's command of Mongol and African gold. "Venice had the central position as the world's bullion market,'' writes Lane, "and attracted to the Rialto (the bridge area which was Venice's "Wall Street'') the acceleration of buying and selling stimulated by the changing prices of the two precious metals.'' From 1290 into the 1330s prices rose sharply for the most crucial commodities.

In this process of quickening speculation, Venice "ensnared all the surrounding economies, including the German economy'' where production of silver, iron, and iron implements was concentrated. By the 1320s, Venetian merchants no longer even traveled to Germany to trade: They compelled German producers and merchants to come to Venice and take up lodgings near the large Fondaco dei Tedeschi ("Warehouse of the Germans'') where their goods were stored for sale.

Venetian bankers on the Rialto (and Venetian bankers alone in the world at this time) made cashless bank transfers among merchants' accounts, allowed overdrafts and gave credit lines on the spot, created "bank money,'' and speculated with it. They did this not out of cleverness, but by simple control of currency speculation worldwide: They had the reserves.

In fact, the famous "bills of exchange'' of the Florentine bankers, were really a crude form of the "derivatives contracts'' of the 1990s speculative cancer. The Bardi, et al. charged fees to those involved in trade, for exchanging currencies, since there were so many regional and city currencies. These exchange fees were a cost looted out of all production and trade, and a usurious profit to the bankers. But the banker made the "bills of exchange'' even more expensive, to hedge against their own potential losses in currency fluctuations being manipulated by Venetian bullion merchants. Thus bills of exchange in the fourteenth century cost 14 percent on average, worse than borrowing at interest (usury).

Venice switched Europe to gold by force of looting silver. England, for example, from 1300-1309 imported 90,000 pounds sterling in silver for coining; but from 1330-1339, it was only able to import 1,000 pounds. "But in Venice there was no lack of silver at all in the 1330s.'' The Florentine bankers, with their famous gold florin, enjoyed great speculative profits in this process.

However, from 1325-1345, the process was reversed. The ratio of gold price to silver price, dominated by Venetian manipulation, now fell steadily from the 15:1 level, back down to 9:1. When the price of silver started rising in the 1330s, there was an unusually large supply of silver in Venice! And through the 1340s, "the international exchange of gold and silver greatly intensified again,'' Lane shows, and there was another wave of sharp commodity price increases.

Now the Florentine bankers were caught, having loans and investments all over Europe in gold, whose price was now falling.

After Venice triggered the fall of gold with new coins in the late 1320s, the Florentines did not attempt to follow suit until 1334 when it was too late; the king of France did not follow until 1337; and last came the pathetic effort of the king of England in 1340, mentioned above.

As Lane shows:

"The fall of gold, to which the Venetians had contributed so much by their vigorous export of silver and import of gold, and in which they found profits, hurt the Florentines. In spite of their being the leaders of international finance ... the Florentines were not in a position, as were the Venetians, to take advantage of the changes that took place between 1325 and 1345.''

Venetian superprofits in global currency speculation continued right through the bank crash and financial market disintegration of 1345-47 which they had rigged, and beyond.

In the period 1330-1350, the Black Death of bubonic and pneumonic plague had spread through southern China, killing between 15 and 20 million people, as the Mongols' looting process came to exhaustion. The Mongols' "horse culture'' (they grazed huge herds of horses for hunting and warfare) had destroyed the infrastructure of agriculture wherever they went. It had also moved the population of Plague -- carrying rodents from the small area of northwest China where it had been isolated for centuries, down into southern China and westward all the way to the Black Sea.

In 1346, Mongol cavalry spread the Black Death to towns in the Crimea, on the Black Sea, and from there it was carried by ship to Sicily and Italy in 1347, and spread throughout Europe. The European population had stagnated for 40 years while becoming more concentrated into cities, where water and sanitation infrastructure had decayed.

In Florence, for example, all the city's bridges had been built in the 13th century, none in the fourteenth. Nutritional levels had already fallen as grain production declined. During the Crusades, the practice of classical education in monasteries had been viciously attacked by the "preacher of the Crusades,'' Bernard of Clairvaux, and his Cistercian order. In 1225, the Vatican had finally forbidden the presence of young students oblates in monasteries. Europe's broadest form of education had disappeared.

After the financial crash and the entry of the Plague, Europe's population fell for 100 years, from perhaps 90 million, to roughly 60 million.

No More Venetian Methods

God allows evil, so that we will become better by fighting it, said Gottfried Leibniz, who founded the science of physical economy in the seventeenth century. The Black Death in Europe destroyed the Malthusian idea that fewer people would mean better life for the survivors -- against it, came the Renaissance idea of the dignity and sanctity of each individual life. The chronicler Matteo Villani wrote in the 1360s:

"It was assumed, on account of the lack of people, that there would be an abundance of everything the law produces. But on the contrary, because of man's ingratitude, everything was in unusually short supply ... and in some countries there were terrible famines. It was thought there would be a profusion of clothing and of everything the human body needs besides life itself, and just the opposite occurred. Most things cost twice as much or more than they did before the plague and wages increased disjointedly to double.''

The marked price rises in the aftermath of the Black Death and subsequent epidemics, lasted more than a generation. This then led to a sharp deflation and collapse of wages from about 1380.

After 1400, in the years which led to the Golden Renaissance, political forces turned against the methods of the Italian free enterprise bankers. In 1401, King Martin I of Aragon (Spain) expelled them. In 1403, Henry IV of England prohibited them from taking profits in any way in his kingdom. In 1409, Flanders imprisoned and then expelled Genoese bankers. In 1410, all Italian merchants were expelled from Paris. When Louis XI became King of France in 1461, he organized national forces to make it the first strong and sovereign nation state. Along with the development of ports, roads, and support for the cities, Louis XI insisted on a single, standard national currency, created and controlled by the crown. For both Louis XI and England's Henry VII in the same period:

"mercantilist forms of economic nationalism were combined with a pronounced hostility to Italian techniques of credit and clearing.''


The preceding article is a rough version of the article that appeared in The American Almanac. It is made available here with the permission of The New Federalist Newspaper. Any use of, or quotations from, this article must attribute them to The New Federalist, and The American Almanac.
Reply
#96
So, the FTSE suffered its fifth biggest fall in history today.

Latest figures I've seen have the S&P falling 8.79%, the eighth biggest fall in history, whilst the Dow dumped 700-plus points - more than 7%

As per my post #90 in this thread, now that the politicians' "Ace" in the hole has been turned face up, it's looking more and more like it' s a lousy "Two of Diamonds".
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."

Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon

"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
Reply
#97
So, the giant CDS mystery continues, with D-Day scheduled for next week.

Are we facing the proverbial black swan event that will cause major global financial institutions to fail, and sovereign states to default - like frenzied lemmings knocking each other over the cliff?

Or was the whole CDS edifice a giant banker's swindle - which will end with a whimper (instead of a bang), and the sound of mad, cackling, laughter from offstage financiers? Aka crooks and fraudsters.

Ticker Forum's Denninger explores the two options - each entirely unpalatable in their implications.

Quote:The Fraudacity Of American Finance

I just had to coin a new word.

Audacity + Fraud = Fraudacity.

John Mack yesterday in a CNBC interview said that the capital deployed by Treasury into the banks was going to rebuild their capital ratios - not be lent out. In other words, they intend to hoard it.

This means, bluntly, that not one nickel of benefit will be seen by Main Street, despite claims by Paulson, Bush and others that this bailout is necessary for "Main Street, not Wall Street."

Liars.

Never mind that Bloomberg is reporting that the so-called "executive compensation limits" that Paulson is touting mean little or nothing:

"Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Lloyd Blankfein, whose $70.3 million paycheck made him Wall Street's most highly compensated chief executive officer last year, could still earn tens of millions annually under the bank-rescue plan run by his former boss, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson."

Very nice. So the taxpayers hand out billions and the executives still rake it in.

Where is the accountability?

CNBC's Fast Money finally started talking about the outright fraud and lies last night. Dylan Ratigan was absolutely on fire about the fact that Paulson was in fact one of the executives lobbying hard for removal of leverage limits in 2004, just two years before he took the position at Treasury (and cashed out $500 million in Goldman Sachs stock tax free.)

I and a few others have been peppering the media with this, and finally, someone woke up to the fact that the very same people who made this mess now want we the taxpayers to pay for cleaning it up - after they ran off with all your money!

Never mind that its unlikely to work.

Nor does it stop there. AIG continues to draw on their "credit line" with The Fed. Inquiring minds want to know a few things here, chief among them being why suddenly is there $80 billion of hard money required in a business that is "fundamentally sound" in excess of cash flow, and where that requirement did not previously exist.

I'm suspicious as hell on this one guys, and my suspicion generally points in the direction of Lehman's Credit-Default Swaps.

The claim by the DTCC and ISDA is that the total "actual exposure" is somewhere in the area of $6-8 billion once all the contracts have netted out.

Let's examine this, because it leads to only two possibilities, both of which are extremely uncomfortable.

First, if the claims are correct: Then the entire CDS game is one gigantic high-finance version of "pick pocket."

That is, you come to me for a CDS on Lehman. I charge you $100,000. Then I immediately go find someone who will sell me the same contract for $90,000. I have now "picked your pocket" to the tune of $10,000, and (theoretically anyway) I have no risk. This continues until the last sucker says "no mas!" on a cheaper price, at which point that particular chain of CDS come to a close, until the next buyer shows up.

If this is the essence of the CDS game then the entire scheme and the dealers' insistence on keeping these things off a public exchange is an artifice with intent to defraud. Why? Because by keeping bid/ask and O/I hidden these banks are able to continue to play this game of "steal from the guy you sell to by obscuring the price"; indeed, that is the essence of the trade! This market doesn't exist to make a market or to set a price for risk, it instead serves as nothing other than a high-finance looting operation with everyone putting in the maximum effort to obscure market facts so as to be able to maximally exploit the customer!

Why do I make this charge? Because there were allegedly $600 billion worth of contracts written on Lehman. If only 1% of that turns into real money needing to be paid out, and recovery on the bonds was literally under 10 cents, then the actual "notional at risk" was $540 billion. As a result we have almost none of the market being used either to insure actual bonds or to place bets on the firm's demise (or health) - essentially the entire CDS marketplace exists to do exactly one thing - steal from the buyers of this "protection"!

If I ran a place that was called a "Tavern" but 99% of the people who were there in fact came to deal cocaine, and only 1% of the people purchased drinks and food to be consumed in my "establishment" I'd be instantaneously raided and shut down by the cops, and with good reason. I would be operating a criminal enterprise - despite calling what I'm doing "serving food and adult beverages", in point of fact I was providing cover and concealment to a highly-illegal enterprise that was engaged in a prohibited activity. Ditto if my alleged "Tavern" was in fact cover for a bookmaking operation and again, 99% of my "activity" was in fact illegal sports betting while 1% was the sale of alcohol and food.

If the ISDA and DTCC claims are correct this is the fraud of the century and every bank and institution involved in it needs to come under immediate federal indictment.

The other possibility is more ominous - ISDA and DTCC are lying, and in fact there are hundreds of billions of dollars in real claims that need to be paid off next week.

The latter explanation happens to (inconveniently) fit with AIG suddenly needing $80 billion worth of actual money. See, AIG's derivatives desk is known to have written CDS on damn near anything or anyone in considerable size. It was a very profitable part of the operation while the music continued to play, but now it has imploded on them, as all overly-leveraged schemes eventually do.

If this explanation is correct then we have a whole different set of problems. In that case the obvious question is whether OTS was complicit in allowing a regulated institution's wholly-owned subsidiary with recourse to the parent to lever up to a degree that vastly exceeded any reasonable standard of prudence under banking and insurance regulations. The implication there is that we had willful and intentional refusal to enforce banking and insurance regulations on both a state and federal level, because AIG was in fact a regulated entity - this was no hedge fund!

The latter scenario also leads one to question whether the $80 billion drawn thus far is in fact going to pay off hedge funds who made bets on Lehman's collapse! If so then this is a further outrage, in that these firms bought these "swaps" from an entity that was insolvent at the outset of writing them, and the idea of the government stepping in to protect hedge funds from bets they made with a firm they knew didn't have the capital to pay is beyond outrageous, not to mention a raw fleecing of the taxpayer to cover the bets of an illegal and under capitalized casino that was enabled and powered by willfully-blind regulators!

Either way we've got a problem with the only real question being exactly who has been lying to whom, where we need to point the Federal Prosecutors, and from whom we should seek to disgorge the ill-gotten gains with Civil RICO (Racketeering) lawsuits.

There's more fraudacity to explore, but this should give the prosecutors plenty to start with.

Do you think we can find one or two somewhere in this country that aren't actually in bed with the fraudsters?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."

Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon

"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
Reply
#98
Please take the time to listen to Hudson here on the cryptocriminals on Wall Street and in the Beltway!
Part I
http://www.kpfa.org/archives/index.php?arch=28790
Part II [by far the better portion! - you might well want to hear first!]
http://www.kpfa.org/archives/index.php?arch=28908 IMO a brilliant and correct analysis by a brilliant and perceptive economist who sees behind the scams. He describes the greatest pre-planned, carefully-executed theft in world history (and the 'bail-outs' are all part of the theft).....do listen [a few times!] He predicts the USA will soon resemble Russia post break-up of the USSR and that we are not going to be 'out of this' mess for a long, LONG time.....and the 'shoes' have just BEGUN to 'drop'.

Say bye-bye. All hope is now lost....only rebuilding from the ground up and putting these criminals in prison....nothing can now save the US or World economy - only lessen the pain [slightly].

Even some of the old insiders are beginning to catch on:
JUAN GONZALEZ: To talk more about the housing and financial crisis, we turn now to Paul Craig Roberts. He is a former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Department in the Reagan administration and a former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He has taught at Georgetown University and Stanford and is the author of many books, including Supply-Side Revolution: An Insider’s Account of Policymaking in Washington.

Welcome to Democracy Now!

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Thank you.

JUAN GONZALEZ: What about this issue of the government’s bailout being aimed primarily at the financial institutions rather than the homeowners who—and the defaults that are at the root of the crisis?

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Yes. Well, it suggests that the bailout is either incompetence or fraud, because the problem, according to the government, is the defaulting mortgages, so the money should be directed at refinancing the mortgages and paying off the foreclosed ones. And that would restore the value of the mortgage-backed securities that are threatening the financial institutions. If the value was restored, the crisis would be over. So there’s no connection between the government’s explanation of the crisis and its solution to the crisis.

JUAN GONZALEZ: But one of the things we’ve often heard now increasingly in recent weeks is that these are homeowners who were irresponsible, took on loans that they could not afford to pay. And, in fact, there’s been increasing suggestions that it’s been those who were advocating, groups like ACORN and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that were trying to expand homeownership in a reckless fashion, that helped create this increasing number of defaults.

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Well, I have no doubt that that accounts for some part of it, but that’s not the entire problem. And, of course, it is a worthwhile endeavor to expand homeownership. But the problem is that some of the mortgages were fraudulent. Others are hit with interest rate escalator clauses that the people may not have known about, and these adjustable rates push up rates. And the whole thing was based on Alan Greenspan’s easy-money policy, which pushed interest rates so low that it created a housing boom. And so, a lot of people were given 100 percent mortgages, because the rise in the housing price was expected to provide the equity. So, it goes way beyond just trying to expand homeownership to groups that perhaps were not normal risk, you know, the normal type of mortgage risk.

AMY GOODMAN: Paul Craig Roberts, the piece you’ve written, one of them, asks, “Has deregulation sired fascism?” What do you mean?

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Well, the original Paulson plan was to give the Secretary of the Treasury $700 billion with no accountability and give him complete control over the financial system. And that, of course, is state capitalism or fascism. If you control the financial system, you control the economy. And so, that was my way of pointing out the dramatic sort of power that was said to be necessary to stem a crisis that, in my view, could be fixed just by refinancing mortgages, like they did during the Great Depression.

AMY GOODMAN: Who is driving this? Who framed this bailout? And explain exactly who it is who benefits right now.

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Well, what the bailout does is it takes troubled financial instruments off the balance sheet of the banks and puts them on the balance sheet of the taxpayer at the US Treasury. So it’s a bailout of the financial institutions whose recklessness caused the problem. And as I’ve already said, it does not address the problem. It only addresses the problem of the banks. So the foreclosures and the defaulting mortgages will continue as the economy worsens, and yet nothing is being done to stabilize that default rate or to stop these foreclosures. So the money is essentially being poured into the coffers of Washington’s financial donor base.

JUAN GONZALEZ: In some of your articles, you reject a view by some Democrats that this is the end result of a deregulatory fever that began in the Reagan administration, and you point to a more recent aspect of this. And you point specifically to decisions that were made during the Clinton administration and the current Bush administration in 1999, 2000 and 2004. Could you elaborate on what those particular key decisions that were made?

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Yes. First, just let me say the Reagan administration didn’t do any financial deregulation.

In 1999, in the Clinton administration, they repealed the Glass-Steagall Act. This was the Depression-era legislation that separated commercial from investment banking. In 2000, they deregulated all derivatives. And in 2004, Hank Paulson, the current Treasury Secretary, who at the time was chairman of Goldman Sachs, he convinced the Securities and Exchange Commission to remove all capital requirements for investment banks, and thus they were able to drive up their profits by amazing leverage. For example, when Bear Stearns finally went under, it had $33 in debt for every dollar in equity. So this is an amazing leverage. And it’s amazing that all reserves against debt would have been removed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. So, the whole thing is reckless beyond imagination. Now, they claim that they had new mathematical models that assessed risk and that they didn’t need these reserves. Well, that was all a bunch of hooey, as we now see.

AMY GOODMAN: Paul Craig Roberts, you write the US is not a superpower; the US is a financially dependent country that foreign lenders can close down at will. What do you mean?

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Well, the savings rate in the United States is zero. The government is running large budget deficits. And these deficits are financed by foreigners who lend the money. The daily operation of the United States government is financed by the Chinese, Japanese, the OPEC sovereign wealth funds. This is not the financial position of a superpower. The same with American consumption. We consume about $800 billion a year more than we produce. We have an enormous trade deficit. And this has to be financed by foreigners, as well.

So the holdings of dollar-denominated assets, including United States Treasury’s, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds, in foreign hands is enormous. And they could exert, if they wish, dramatic control over American policy just by calling up Washington and asking if they wanted to buy these things back—of course, with no money to buy them with. And if they were to—they don’t even have to dump them. If they just stopped financing the budget deficit, the government in Washington would have to resort to printing money, like Weimar Germany. So, this is not a strong position.

AMY GOODMAN: And the connection of war to what’s going on today?

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS: Well, we clearly cannot afford a war that costs us a minimum—an out-of-pocket current cost of $200 billion a year. We can’t afford a defense budget, which is some—or military spending budget—it’s got nothing to do with defense—of somewhere around $700 billion a year. These are beyond our means. We don’t finance that deficit. It’s very strange, Amy, because it’s the foreigners who are financing our wars. It’s the foreigners who are financing the military spending.

So, the United States is going to lose the dollar as reserve currency if it doesn’t show the world that it’s prepared to take action to reduce the budget deficit to zero, to balance it, and to do something to reduce the enormous trade deficit. Otherwise, the outpouring of dollars has become so excessive that it will knock the dollar off its reserve currency role.

AMY GOODMAN: Paul Craig Roberts, we’re going to have to have a part two next week. I want to thank you for being with us, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration and former associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He has written many books, including Supply-Side Revolution: An Insider’s Account of Policymaking in Washington.
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#99
Peter - I agree that Michael Hudson is always interesting.

Governments are exchanging "Taxpayer Cash for Wall Street Trash". We taxpayers will be burdened with the Trash, whilst the financial elites cavort merrily with our Cash.

The most striking aspect of Hudson's analysis is that the shock therapy which Goldman Sachs & Citigroup's Robert Rubin applied to Russia, in creating a kleptocratic class and hugely enriching them (through for instance fraudulent privatizations of state companies with access to natural resources) whilst impoverishing & enslaving the vast majority of ordinary Russians, is exactly what former Goldman Sachs CEO Paulson is now doing to America with his "bailout bill". Hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money are being handed to the financial elites, who will then force hundreds of thousands of ordinary families out of their homes.

However, fascinating as the economic analysis is, I still think this ends either in a First World Rex 2008 (martial law) or a false flag atrocity/war. In other words, as per Paul Craig Roberts in that interview, we end up with fascism.
"It means this War was never political at all, the politics was all theatre, all just to keep the people distracted...."
"Proverbs for Paranoids 4: You hide, They seek."
"They are in Love. Fuck the War."

Gravity's Rainbow, Thomas Pynchon

"Ccollanan Pachacamac ricuy auccacunac yahuarniy hichascancuta."
The last words of the last Inka, Tupac Amaru, led to the gallows by men of god & dogs of war
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Jan Klimkowski Wrote:Peter - I agree that Michael Hudson is always interesting.

Governments are exchanging "Taxpayer Cash for Wall Street Trash". We taxpayers will be burdened with the Trash, whilst the financial elites cavort merrily with our Cash.

The most striking aspect of Hudson's analysis is that the shock therapy which Goldman Sachs & Citigroup's Robert Rubin applied to Russia, in creating a kleptocratic class and hugely enriching them (through for instance fraudulent privatizations of state companies with access to natural resources) whilst impoverishing & enslaving the vast majority of ordinary Russians, is exactly what former Goldman Sachs CEO Paulson is now doing to America with his "bailout bill". Hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money are being handed to the financial elites, who will then force hundreds of thousands of ordinary families out of their homes.

However, fascinating as the economic analysis is, I still think this ends either in a First World Rex 2008 (martial law) or a false flag atrocity/war. In other words, as per Paul Craig Roberts in that interview, we end up with fascism.

I'm not inclined to disagree with anything you say....BUT....that scenario is mighty bleak....bleak enough many of us would choose suicide or die in useless battles rather than submit once in place - we must [repeat MUST] do what we can to stop it getting that bad before it gets to the end stages! Time is short; most aren't willing to listen; the propaganda machine is immense; and the scenario, if not resisted actively, is likely the one you painted! After preying on the rest of the world, it was natural [sic] for them to finally prey on the 'homeland'....globalization of the 'cancer'. Analysis is fine and necessary, but I'm up for action. When former Reagan Republicans start talking of the fascism here now, you know we are past the starting gate of something very ugly indeed!!!!! I could easily see the whole ball of wax meltingdown in a very few years and the neocons declaring Martial Law anytime from the election to the next one. I'd say, at MOST we have 4 years (if we are lucky - less if we are not!). With all the problems and conflicts of interest the Allies had in WW2, they did stop that fascism [well, overtly anyway], but there is no one but us to come on white horses and 'save the day' now......and once we are in prisoncamps, under martial law (or homeless and starving) I don't think we'll have much effect. There is much we can prove to the sheeple about how they are being taken from being pickpocketed to being fleeced completly. The new legislation and Federal/National bank guarentees (to take just one example) mean the leverage rates and cash held now for banks and such is infinite and zero, respectively - they don't have to keep anything on hand as the governments [tax money from the poor and middle-class] will cover all losses...and it goes on from there. Add to the financial, all the political deception we know and discuss - and voila.....we are smack-dab face-to-face with an Enemy So Immense and IMMEDIATE it is hard to grasp - but grasp we must and make the others grasp, as well. I think we all thought, despite how bad things WERE, we had 'more time' - I think now we do not...very little time indeed!! The fascists are cashing in their chips and about to call out their armed forces - with guns pointed in, not just outwards. Times have changed and we must change with it.
Seize the time.
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