Libya And Its Future

[James Lewis]

I wonder if those "problems" include dividing up Libya's oilfields between the Big Four oil companies.

Analysis: Victory hands new set of problems to Libya rebels

(Reuters) - Even as they battle Muammar Gaddafi's last strongholds in Tripoli, Libyan rebel leaders must race to impose order and prevent bloody score-settling as the capital shakes off 42 years of despotism, analysts and Western officials say.

It is not clear if they can achieve this, but the implosion of Muammar Gaddafi's authority in the capital -- so far without a bloodbath -- suggests its two million inhabitants are focused more on reconciliation than revenge.

The assault on Tripoli has been a stunning success. In many cases rebel fighters have simply walked into the capital without firing a shot. Much of that is due to a long-planned civilian revolt in parts of the capital that erupted on Saturday evening.

But the battle-hardened fighters flooding into Tripoli may eventually become a liability for opposition leaders who will now want to channel the emotional rush of revolution into the more pedestrian work of reconstruction, analysts say.

Restoring public order would be helped by a spirit of reconciliation, not only between former Gaddafi loyalists and opponents, but also between disparate rebel forces who may now compete, perhaps violently, for the spoils of victory.

REBEL UNITY "HARD TO PREDICT"

Arab commentator Issandr El Amrani said it was unclear how much control the Benghazi-based National Transitional Council (NTC) "can really exert over what amounts to a large, diffuse coalition of anti-Gaddafi forces that -- once the Brother Leader is killed, exiled or arrested -- may have less common cause.

"There are a lot of light weapons in the hands of volunteer fighters in Libya, and like in any conflict, it's hard to predict what they might end up doing with them in the coming transition," he wrote.

The omens are mixed.

A faltering performance by the NTC could hurt the chances of a peaceful transition in which to resolve big issues such as forging a new constitution, rebuilding the economy and deciding what to do with Gaddafi, if he is captured, and his sons.

The council seems to be scrambling to keep up with events.

RIFTS MAY EMERGE

NTC officials had indicated they would disclose the names of the Tripoli-based officials in their leadership team at the right time -- after keeping them secret until now for their own safety. But there was no word on this by mid-Monday.

However, TNC member Abdullah Gzema, said four council members had traveled to Tripoli to prepare for Gaddafi's downfall before rebel fighters closed in on the city.

He said rebel leaders wanted civilian authorities, not frontline fighters, to control security in Tripoli and elsewhere. to prepare for Gaddafi's overthrow.

Another NTC member, Suleiman al-Sahli, said there would be no wholesale purging of Gaddafi's administration and security forces, such as happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein's fall.

"We will work with them, except for those who were very close to Gaddafi, but I think they have gone already," he said.

Nevertheless, rebel divisions may now come to the fore.

George Joffe, a North Africa expert at Cambridge University, said the assault on Tripoli was led by rebels from Western Libya. "There is no guarantee they will accept the leadership of Benghazi. So we are entering a very dangerous phase."

Some see the swift fall of Tripoli as a hopeful omen for a relatively peaceful transition.

Parts of Gaddafi's security forces abandoned their posts, defected or stood aside as insurgents and their civilian supporters took over Tripoli districts at the weekend.

Noman Benotman, senior analyst at the Quilliam Foundation and an associate of Gaddafi's former spy chief Moussa Koussa, told Reuters the Tripoli uprising "was all made possible by the people of Tripoli themselves."

They had some help because some army and intelligence officers had ordered their men not to resist, he said, citing a military intelligence commander, el-Barrani Ashkal, a cousin of Gaddafi's, who he said had told his men not to attack rebels.

"The implications of this for the transition are very good. It's the perfect scenario for the future, because there was no substantial fighting," Benotman said.

The coordinated nature of the revolt and joyous scenes that accompanied it show that Gaddafi was widely loathed.

Hafed al-Ghwell, a U.S.-based Libyan opposition activist, said his family like those of many Libyans had suffered immensely from Gaddafi's despotism, but now was not the time to vent personal grievances, legitimate though they may be.

"Young battle-hardened fighters could take over by the gun and this is a real danger," he told Reuters.

"In post-conflict situations the most important thing is to focus people's energy on a political framework, rather than letting them fall into more primitive processes and habits," he said, advocating forgiveness and reconciliation.

WORKING CLASS REVOLT

Juan Cole, history professor at the University of Michigan, blogged that Gaddafi had lost popular support across the board and was in power only through force.

"The secret of the uprising's final days of success lay in a popular revolt in the working-class districts of the capital, which did most of the hard work of throwing off the rule of secret police and military cliques," he wrote.

"Once enough of his heavy weapons capability was disrupted, and his fuel and ammunition supplies blocked, the underlying hostility of the common people to the regime could again manifest itself, as it had in February."

Cole cautioned against underestimating future challenges, such as mopping up Gaddafi loyalists, restoring law and order in rebel-held cities, reconstituting the police and the national army, moving the NTC to Tripoli, founding political parties and building a new, parliamentary regime.

"Even in much more institutionalized and less clan-based societies such as Tunisia and Egypt, these tasks have proved anything but easy," he wrote.

"But it would be wrong in this moment of triumph ... to dwell on the difficulties to come. Libyans deserve a moment of exultation."

(Reporting by William Maclean; Editing by Jon Boyle and Alistair Lyon)

[Magda Hassan]

Well, the last thing they want is oil profits going to support the people of Libya nor do they want them to go to Africa. It would be much better if the profits were repatriated to US and European banks where they clearly belong. And let's put a stop to this Arab Spring thing. It can't be allowed to spread to the Gulf.

[James Lewis]

Of course not, for that would halt the spread of that insidious and pernicious disease known as imperialism. And let's not forget that oil - not human rights violations - has always been the reason that the West wanted to get rid of Khadafy. Once he nationalized the Libyan oil fields in 1969 when he came to power, he became a marked man.

Well, the last thing they want is oil profits going to support the people of Libya nor do they want them to go to Africa. It would be much better if the profits were repatriated to US and European banks where they clearly belong. And let's put a stop to this Arab Spring thing. It can't be allowed to spread to the Gulf.

[James Lewis]

And now, a word from the people who actually live in Africa:

Ex-South Africa President Slams West's Gunboat Diplomacy In Libya

http://www.iol.co.za/mercury/mbeki-slams...-1.1124279

The Mercury (South Africa)
August 24, 2011

Mbeki slams West's gunboat diplomacy against Gaddafi

Former president Thabo Mbeki has joined more than 140 other prominent Africans in condemning the gunboat diplomacy aimed at overthrowing Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

In an open letter, Mbeki and other signatories have sharply criticised "the misuse of the UN Security Council to engage in militarised diplomacy to effect regime change in Libya".

Some of the "Concerned Africans" who have signed the letter are to brief the press in Joburg today. The full text of the letter and list of signatories will be released at the briefing.

The signatories include former cabinet ministers Essop Pahad and Ronnie Kasrils, former Anglican Archbishop of Cape Town Njongonkulu Ndungane, author and poet Wally Serote, and foreign policy analysts Chris Landsberg and Siphamandla Zondi, and Mahmood Mamdani, of Makerere University in Uganda and the University of Columbia, New York.

Other issues to be addressed in their open letter include:

l The UN Security Council's rejection of political solutions to conflict.

l The need to allow the Libyans to decide their own fate and rulers without outside interference.

l The marginalisation of the African Union.

l The threat of the recolonisation of Africa, especially its resource-rich countries.

Meanwhile, it appeared that South Africa and the African Union had been sidelined from diplomatic efforts in the aftermath of the collapse of Gaddafi's government. The International Contact Group, which has been conducting military operations in support of the Transitional National Council (TNC) rebels fighting Gaddafi, is planning to meet in Istanbul tomorrow to discuss how to manage a post-Gaddafi Libya.

But the group has no plans to include the AU, according to International Contact Group official sources.

African leaders are to meet at AU headquarters in Addis Ababa to discuss Libya tomorrow and on Friday. But officials indicated that the main issue there would be whether or not to recognise the TNC government, rather than any role the AU could still play in stabilising Libya after the civil war which now seems all but over.

On Monday International Relations Minister Maite Nkoana-Mashabane suggested that South Africa would withhold recognition of the TNC until an inclusive transitional government was in place.

However Nigeria threw down a challenge to Africa yesterday by immediately recognising the TNC.

Zuma yesterday repeated his criticism of Nato for "misinterpreting" UN Security Council Resolution 1973 which South Africa supported to try to oust Gaddafi rather than just protect civilians.

He also said that Nato had caused unnecessary bloodshed by continuing to drop bombs on Libya after the AU had asked it to stop to allow the AU Roadmap to take effect. He insisted that the road map, which he failed to persuade either side to adopt, "still has room in the situation right now".

"It's not too little, too late" he told journalists after meeting Ghana's John Atta Mills in Cape Town.

[James Lewis]

And this - brownie points if you know where this came from:

If the U.S. monopoly capitalist groups persist in pushing their policies of aggression and war, the day is bound to come when they will be hanged by the people of the whole world. The same fate awaits the accomplices of the United States.

[Ed Jewett]

What Is the Taxpayer's Cost for America/NATO Liberating Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Somalia?
25
08
2011
[Has anyone bothered adding-up the bill for conquering all of these little countries, then creating governments for them, to be supported on the US dole? This shit will end whenever the taxpayers and the jobless figure-out that money which should be used here is being used to prop-up the New World Order.]

US Military Intervention in Libya Cost At Least $896 Million
[ http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/...lion-.html ]

ABC News' Luis Martinez (@LMartinezABC) reports: The cost of U.S. military intervention in Libya has cost American taxpayers an estimated $896 million through July 31, the Pentagon said today.

The price tag includes the amounts for daily military operations, munitions used in the operation and humanitarian assistance for the Libyan people.

The U.S. has also promised $25 million in non-lethal aid to the Libyan Transitional National Council, half of which the Defense Department has already on MRE's (military lingo for Meals, Ready to Eat).

The military delivered 120,000 Halal MRE's to Benghazi in May and a second shipment that included medical supplies, boots, tents, uniforms, and personal protective gear in June.

While Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi appears on the way out, NATO says flight missions over Tripoli will continue, with the U.S. playing a role in helping to keep a tight window over the area that's been in effect for weeks.

Over the past 12 days, U.S. planes have flown 391 sorties for a total of 5,316 since April 1, according to figures provided by the Defense Department. That total includes 1,210 airstrike missions over the same three and a half month period. The U.S. has also conducted 101 Predator drone strike missions in Libya.

A U.S. official credited NATO flight cover over the past many months with allowing the Libyan rebels enough time to eventually regroup and begin their pushes.

One significant offset to the cost of U.S. involvement in the flights worth noting is the sale of military equipment to allies also involved in the cause. Pentagon officials say the sale of ammunition, replacement parts, fuel, and technical assistance to allies since March has totaled $221.9 million.

http://therearenosunglasses.wordpress.co...d-somalia/

[Magda Hassan]

And this - brownie points if you know where this came from:

If the U.S. monopoly capitalist groups persist in pushing their policies of aggression and war, the day is bound to come when they will be hanged by the people of the whole world. The same fate awaits the accomplices of the United States.

Chairman Mao:dancingman:

[James Lewis]

I kinda figured you'd get that