Here WE go again...this time with and in Syria......the stage is set!~

[Peter Lemkin]

Libya 2.0
US Ready to "Help" Arm Syrian Rebels

By AP

February 23, 2012 "AP" - -THE US has opened the door to military assistance for Syria's rebels as intelligence sources revealed the Free Syrian Army is acquiring sophisticated weapons systems, including Russian anti-tank missiles, from sympathisers and officers in President Bashar al-Assad's military.

In co-ordinated messages yesterday, the White House and State Department said they still hoped for a political solution. But faced with the daily onslaught by Mr Assad's regime against Syrian civilians, officials dropped the administration's previous strident opposition to arming anti-regime forces. It remained unclear what, if any, role the US might play in providing such aid.

"We don't want to take actions that would contribute to the further militarisation of Syria, because that could take the country down a dangerous path," White House press secretary Jay Carney said. "But we don't rule out additional measures if the international community should wait too long and not take the kind of action that needs to be taken."

State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland used nearly identical language. "We don't believe that it makes sense to contribute now to the further militarisation of Syria," she said.

"What we don't want to see is the spiral of violence increase. That said, if we can't get Assad to yield to the pressure that we are all bringing to bear, we may have to consider additional measures."

The escalating daily death toll and the failure of diplomacy to end the crisis is spurring greater international interest in the possibility of providing the FSA with logistical support to hasten the collapse of the regime. Two influential US senators, including John McCain, have declared support for arming the Syrian rebels, citing Iranian and Russian material backing for the regime.

The rebel force, which is growing in size and claiming responsibility for a rising number of attacks against the Syrian army and intelligence services, lacks weapons and ammunition.

"If we had what we need, we could finish off the regime in 10 days," said Khaled, a sniper with the FSA's Tel Kalakh Martyrs' Brigade. "Every time we fire a shot, we have to think carefully about where that bullet is going."

The insurgency campaign mounted by the FSA, which includes assassinations, roadside bomb attacks, ambushes and crowd protection, is reshaping the 11-month struggle. What began as protests against the regime has turned into an armed struggle in which more than 6000 people have died and which has brought the country to the brink of a sectarian civil war.

Critics point to the logistical difficulties of supplying weapons to the FSA and the lack of clarity over the composition of the rebel force. A declaration of support for the uprising by Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qa'ida, has triggered alarm that the struggle may attract jihadist militants.

Small quantities of individual weapons are smuggled from Lebanon. Larger amounts are crossing from Iraq into the hands of Sunni tribes and Kurdish groups in eastern Syria, according to Western intelligence sources. The weapons are being stockpiled in the east because of difficulties in transporting them undetected across hundreds of kilometres of desert to the protest hubs in the western half of the country.

The Turkish border is regarded as the most favourable transit point for smuggled arms. Turkey has come out strongly against the Assad regime and hosts the leadership of the FSA. Furthermore, much of Syria's northern Idlib province is under the control of rebel groups, according to opposition activists and FSA fighters.

The 300 to 400 fighters of the Tel Kalakh Martyrs' Brigade are based in the eponymous town, 3km north of the Lebanese border near Homs. The brigade is split into combat units of between six and 10 fighters, each equipped with a rocket-propelled grenade launcher and a light machine gun, alongside individual weapons. Khaled, a former soldier in an air defence regiment who deserted in October, said one of the main sources of weapons for the FSA was the Syrian army.

"We have some senior officers who are with us either because they believe in our cause or because we can bribe them. They are our only way of getting more advanced weapons, such as Kornets," he said, referring to the Russian anti-tank missile.

Hezbollah used Kornet missiles to deadly effect against Israel's top Merkava tanks in Lebanon during the 2006 war.

The Syrian army has begun deploying its more heavily armoured T-80 tanks.

A video recently posted on YouTube shows a burning T-72 tank said to have been destroyed by the FSA in Zabadani. The clip shows what appears to be a Kornet or the shorter-range Metis anti-tank missile, one of 60 the FSA claimed it had seized from a captured military depot.

[Peter Lemkin]

Admin Orders Military Planning for Syria Intervention






The Pentagon has confirmed the White House has authorized the early stages of planning for potential military action in Syria. Speaking before a senate committee, General Martin Dempsey, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said military officials have prepared a preliminary "commanders' estimate" on how a battle would play out for President Obama's National Security Council. Dempsey outlined some of the military actions the United States could take.

Gen. Martin Dempsey: "Humanitarian relief, no-fly zone, maritime interdiction, humanitarian corridor and limited aerial strikes for example. We're at what I would describe as the 'commanders estimate' level of detail, not detailed planning. Have not been briefed with the President, have been discussed with the President's National Security Council staff. And as General [James] Maddis testified yesterday, the next step would be to take whatever options we deem to be feasible into the next level of planning."

Testifying along with Dempsey, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the planning is in the preliminary phase and would only get more detailed at President Obama's request. During the hearing, Panetta was questioned by Republican Senator John McCain, who this week became the first U.S. lawmaker to call for the U.S. bombing of Syria.

Sen. John McCain: "Can you tell us how much longer the killing would have to continue, how many additional civilian lives would have to be lost in order to convince you that military measures of this kind that we are proposing, necessary to end the killing and force to leave power. How many more have to die 10,000 more, 20,000 more how many more?"
Leon Panetta: "I think the question, as you stated yourself Senator, is the effort to try to build an international consensus as to what action we do take. That makes the most sense. What doesn't make sense is to take unilateral action at this point."

[Magda Hassan]

Not only are they arming the 'rebels' they are on the ground there in person themselves. According to Cynthia MacKinney she was chatting with a waitress at a restaurant and the waitress mentioned in passing that she was unhappy her (the waitress) sister, who was in the military, had be told that she was to be deployed to Syria in a few days.

[Peter Lemkin]

Not only are they arming the 'rebels' they are on the ground there in person themselves. According to Cynthia MacKinney she was chatting with a waitress at a restaurant and the waitress mentioned in passing that she was unhappy her (the waitress) sister, who was in the military, had be told that she was to be deployed to Syria in a few days.

Interesting. I think it would be difficult to have many other than special forces and then only those that look middle-eastern and do speak Arabic infiltrated in - likely either in very remote areas or 'hidden' in a busy city - anything in between would make them too obvious. It is the totally imperial attitude of the USA that makes me sick. We 'own' the World and have since WW2 - just that sometimes we have to remind others of that! [the implied attitude]. While I do NOT like Assad and his gang and they ARE killing men, women and children for nothing more than wishing to have a say in their country, the US is not acting out of the noblest of feelings. 'Getting Syria' is one stepping stone to 'getting Iran' - the real jewel they seek. Assad has long been a buddy of the USA - as was Ghadaffi as was Mubrarak as was Noriega, as was Hussein, as was...[fill in the blank]. As usual the American lack of history and knowledge about anything beyond their back yard and TV, along with the MSM propaganda has most Americans either for or neutrally accepting whatever we do wherever we deploy. :mexican:

[Magda Hassan]

Special forces have been there since at least December. The French are there in larger numbers at this stage though. The Syrian military have caught several of them (1,500 foreigners, many French identified) Meanwhile, the French government is officially denying all connection but negotiations are going on between three groups for their release. If the Fench do not claim them as their own they will be shot as terrorist by the Syrian government. If the French do claim them they have committed a war crime. I have posted this in the 'Mediteranean Battlefield' thread in Geopolitical Hotspots.

[Christer Forslund]

Alain Juppé accused by his own Administration of having falsified reports on Syria

[size=12]Voltaire Network [/SIZE] | 22 March 2012 http://www.voltairenet.org/Alain-Juppe-a...by-his-own

On 19 March 2012, a high French official invited Arab journalists based in Paris to inform them of the internal battle being waged within the French government and, in particular, the Quai d'Orsay [the French Foreign Ministry] regarding Syria. According to this person, the French Ambassador in Damascus, Eric Chevallier, whose embassy had just been shut down and who had returned to Paris, challenged Minister Juppé in front of his colleagues. He accused Alain Juppé of having ignored his embassy reports and of having falsified summaries of them to provoke a war against Syria.

In March 2011, at the beginning of the events currently besetting Syria, the Foreign Ministry hurriedly dispatched fact finders to Deraa to appraise what was happening. Their report, submitted to Paris, indicated that tensions had dissipated following several demonstrations, information that contradicted Al-Jazeera and France 24 reports that the city of Deraa was being violently torn apart. The ambassador requested the mission be extended in order to follow developing events. The Foreign Minister, furious about the first report, telephoned him and demanded that he alter it to state that a bloody repression of the city was occurring. The Ambassador then arranged a teleconference between the Chief of Mission in Deraa and the Minister and had him repeat that no such repression had occurred. The minister then threatened the ambassador and the conversation ended icily.
Immediately afterwards, Alain Juppé's cabinet pressured Agence France Press to publish cables aligned with the view of the Minister. During the months that followed, altercations between Ambassador Eric Chevallier and Alain Juppé continued to multiply, until the moment of the Iranian hostage crisis in January 2012 and the death of "journalist" Gilles Jacquier. At this moment, the Ambassador was ordered to pull the covert DGSE agents working under press cover out of Syria, at which point he realized the importance of the secret operation being carried out by Alain Juppé. [1]
As former Minister of Defense, Alain Juppé appears to have maintained tight friendships within the armed services and to be able to rely on agents loyal to him.
The same source affirms that the ambassadorial reports were either ignored or falsified which led the ambassador himself to shore up his position by having forwarded to the Foreign Ministry equivalent European diplomatic reports attesting that Syria was not in the throes of a cycle of protest and crackdown but was rather being destabilized by armed groups coming from outside the country. On his arrival back in Paris, Ambassador Chevallier allegedly requested an internal administrative inquiry to confound his own Minister.
These revelations led to still others. Another high official revealed that Alain Juppé was not only in conflict with his administration but also with his colleagues at both the Defense and Interior Ministries. Their respective ministers, Claude Guéant and Gérard Longuet had not only negotiated the exfiltration of the French intelligence agents present in the Islamic Emirate of Baba Amr with General Assef Chawkrit, as previously reported by Voltaire Network [2], but had also arranged the release of three French commandos detained by Syria. [3]
On Sunday, 18 March, the pro-Syrian daily Ad-Diyar, edited in Beirut, confirmed that three French prisoners had been released to Admiral Edouard Guillaud, Chief of Staff of the Military of France (CEMA), during a trip to Lebanon supposedly undertaken as the French contingent of the U.N. Interim Force for Lebanon was being reorganized. According to a high-ranking Syrian source, the Admiral had in exchange personally overseen the complete dismantling of the French military's rear operating base in Lebanon.
The conflict between Ambassador Chevallier and Minister Juppé had been simmering for a long time. On 4 April 2011, the online journal Rue 89 published an article attributed to an anonymous Franco-Syrian author. [4] It reported that the Ambassador "had become a mouthpiece of the regime, asserting that the revolts of Daraa and Lattaquie were fomented by foreign forces and that the media were lying about reality." Ten days later, George Balbrunot on his blog at Le Figaro followed suit, claiming that the Ambassador had been "completely Bashirized". [5] Finally, on 5 May, France 24, a station owned by the French Government and under Alain Juppé's supervision, accused the Ambassador of "minimizing the revolt." [6]
The conflict between Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Admiral Edouard Guillaud and Alain Juppé has also been in the public eye for a long time. The Admiral did not appreciate that Alain Juppé, while Minister of Defense, had planned in advance the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi. With veiled support of his new Defense Minister Gérard Longuet, he publicly manifested his disagreement when commanded to mobilize French troops against Libya.
In addition, relations between Guéant and Juppé are notoriously bad. In one of his usual displays of arrogance, Alain Juppé stipulated as a condition of his entering the Fillon government that Claude Guéant leave the General Secretariat of the Élysée because he didn't want to speak to him. After the agreement reached by Washington, London and Moscow to calm the situation in Syria, Alain Juppé can still count on the support of Ankara, Riyad and Doha along with that of the mainstream media. He now finds himself isolated in France and deprived of the means to enact his policies, unless of course President Sarkozy starts pushing for war to boost the poll numbers for Sarkozy the candidate.

[1] "Le fiasco des barbouzes français à Homs," by Boris V., Komsomolskaïa Pravda, Réseau Voltaire, 17 January 2012,
[2] "The journalist-combatants of Baba Amr", by Thierry Meyssan, Voltaire Network, 4 March 2012.
[3] "France restores military censorship", Voltaire Network, 5 March 2012.
[4] "A Damas, le régime de Bachar el-Assad prépare un bain de sang", by Sadik H., Rue89, 4 April 2011.
[5] "Syrie: quand l'ambassadeur de France déjeunait avec la bête noire des frondeurs", by Georges Malbrunot, L'Orient indiscret/Le Figaro, 14 April 2011.
[6] "L'ambassadeur de France en Syrie a clairement minimisé la révolte", by Julien Pain and Peggy Bruguière, France24, 5 May 2011.

[Magda Hassan]

Weapon smugglers caught on March 16th near Homs were carrying brand new Israeli weapons and NATO issued machine guns to the Free Syrian Army Terrorists. This is further proof that the revolts against the Syrian government is a multi-national conspiracy.

[Magda Hassan]

Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

[TABLE="class: cable, width: 749"]
[TR]
Email-ID[TD]2241596[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
Date[TD]2011-11-15 23:34:47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
From[TD]bhalla@stratfor.com[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
To[TD]analysts@stratfor.com[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
List-Name[TD]analysts@stratfor.com[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
this is what the Turkish diplo source said - Turkey will send troops
across the border, ostensibly in order to safeguard its territory against
PKK attacks, and will use the terms of the agreement reached between
Turkey and Syria in 1998, which allows the Turkish army to penetrate a few
kilometers inside Syria to defend against PKK attacks. Turkey has been
asking for an Arab endorsement to commit itself more actively in Syrian
affairs.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nathan Hughes"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:25:23 PM
Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

I'm no longer clear on what we're talking about.

Turkey is dropping hints about exercising an existing hot pursuit clause,
right?

Can someone please lay out the specifics of what they're saying? What
exactly did Turkey hint at specifically and where did we get 'buffer
zone'?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "Omar Lamrani"
Cc: "Analyst List"
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:13:38 PM
Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

yes, it's a hot pursuit clause

but, the idea is that Turkey is contemplating using that hot pursuit
clause to justify sending and keeping troops on the other side of the
border. that would deifnitely be stretching the rules, and would require
Turkey responding to (or perhaps inventing) a Kurdish militant threat in
that area that would legally justify such intervention.

but if Turkey were willing to absorb the risk of entering Syrian territory
and establishing a buffer zone, essentially as an act of war, then why go
through the trouble of bringing up this 1998 agreement to begin with when
Syria is going to see through it

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Omar Lamrani"
To: "Analyst List"
Cc: "Reva Bhalla"
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:06:41 PM
Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

I looked through the links and this is what I found for the Adana
Agreement:

First Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 15km
into Syria.
Second Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 5km
into Syria.
Third Link - The agreement allows the Turkish Army to penetrate some
distance into Syria in case it feels threatens by PKK operations.
Fourth Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 15km
into Syria.

All links do not point to a buffer zone. Instead, the Adana Agreement
according to the links provided allows for the authorization of
pursuit/hot pursuit into Syria to a maximum of 15km.
On 11/15/11 2:23 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

A Turkish diplomatic source mentioned a few days ago that a stipulation
in the 1998 agreement between Turkey and Syria would allow TUrkish
troops to enter a few kms into Syrian territory. We searched the public
text of that agreement and didn't find anything that resembled a line
like that, but when I followed up with a source, this is what I found
out:

On Oct. 20, 1998 the Syrians and Turks signed the Adana Agreement, a
secret document that ended the conflict between two countries, and
transformed their bi-lateral relations from enmity into cooperation.
According to the terms of the agreement, Syria renounced its claim to
Hatay and authorized the Turkish army to pursue Kurdish rebels inside
Syria up to 5 kilometers without seeking the prior permission of the
Syrian authorities (some sites say the later Hafiz Asad allowed the
Turkish army to penetrate Syrian territories up to 15 kms, although the
5kms authorization seems to make more sense.

This is obviously a major concession that Syria had to make when it was
legitimately scared that the TUrkish army was going to keep rolling its
tanks across the border. The terms of the Adana agreement were not made
public because it was a total Syrian capitulation to the Turkish
demands. Some describe the agreement as a Turkish-Syrian Camp david
Accord.

The following Arabic sites mention the Adana Agreement and the right it
gave to the Turkish army to enter Syrian territories.

http://www.dohainstitute.com/Home/Detail...cb51ccc031

http://elsoumoudelcharif.mescops.com/t7928-topic

http://jordanzad.com/index.php?page=article&id=61494

http://ejabat.google.com/ejabat/thread?t...ea07705c0d

I still don't think Turkey is close to establishing this military buffer
zone, but we're taking a serious look at how they would go about it if
they did do it. Tactical team is mapping out the terrain, roads, ets.
in this area.

A few things to keep in mind:

As Omar pointed out, even if there is this stipulation in a secret 1998
agreement, i doubt Syria would respect it if Turkey is using it to send
troops into Turkish territory and has publicized its interest in
toppling the regime. It would likely be regarded by Syria (and Iran, by
extension) as an invasion and thus an act of war. That means TUrkey
would not only be facing the SYrian army, but also could bear the brunt
of militant proxy attacks (think Hezbollah, PKK possibly, etc.)

A Turkish military buffer zone in the north doesn't do shit for the
areas where the SUnni oppoisiton is concentrated and getting beat. the
natural escape route for Homs and Hama is southward toward LEbanon
(where Syria has a lot of leverage.) In the north, you have the Kurdish
areas (Qamishli is the main city) and you have the important city of
Aleppo, where Syria has concentrated a lot of forces.

Remember Turkey's main interest when it comes to Syria. They're not
looking ot march on Damascus for kicks. They are most concerned with the
spread of Kurdish separartism/militancy. So far, the Kurds in Syria have
been relatively calm (we had insight on this recently on how KRG is also
advising the SYrian Kurds to not push it.) So the Kurdish threat has
not risen to the level yet for TUrkey to intervene.

But --

Turkey wants to show it's capable of doing something. I am still going
to argue that establishing a military buffer zone and risking war with
Syria (and proxy war with Iran) is not worth it in Turkey's eyes.

But --

If Turkey has legit reason to believe Syria and Iran are playing the
PKK card, things could shift. That's what i think we need to be watching
for closely.

--
Omar Lamrani
ADP
STRATFOR
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
Austin, TX 78701
http://www.STARTFOR.com

[Albert Doyle]

Eyewitness claims Syria is CIA terror war:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L49L6iZS...AAAAAAAAAQ



.

[Lauren Johnson]

Eyewitness claims Syria is CIA terror war:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L49L6iZS...AAAAAAAAAQ

.

Note that this video is 5 months old.