Wikileaks publishes Stratfor Global Intelligence files.

[Magda Hassan]

Via BNO News Wire Service:
http://www.bnonews.com

WIKILEAKS PRESS RELEASE
EMBARGOED EMBARGOED EMBARGOED

DO NOT DISCLOSE THE EXISTANCE OF THIS RELEASE
OR ANY INFORMATION DERIVED FROM IT BEFORE
Monday 27 February 00:01 GMT 2012

The Global Intelligence Files
http://wikileaks.org/gifiles
Twitter tag: #gifiles

OFFICAL PRESS CONFERENCE 12 hours after EMBARGO ENDS:
Monday 27 Feburary, noon, Frontline Club, 13 Norfolk Place, Paddington,
London, W2 1QJ.

LONDON--Today WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files more than five million emails from the Texas-headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The emails date from between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defense Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods, for example:

"[Y]ou have to take control of him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control... This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase" CEO George Friedman to Stratfor analyst Reva Bhalla on 6 December 2011, on how to exploit an Israeli intelligence informant providing information on the medical condition of the President of Venezuala, Hugo Chavez.

The material contains privileged information about the US government's attacks against Julian Assange and WikiLeaks and Stratfor's own attempts to subvert WikiLeaks. There are more than 4,000 emails mentioning WikiLeaks or Julian Assange. The emails also expose the revolving door that operates in private intelligence companies in the United States. Government and diplomatic sources from around the world give Stratfor advance knowledge of global politics and events in exchange for money. The Global Intelligence Files exposes how Stratfor has recruited a global network of informants who are paid via Swiss banks accounts and pre-paid credit cards. Stratfor has a mix of covert and overt informants, which includes government employees, embassy staff and journalists around the world.

The material shows how a private intelligence agency works, and how they target individuals for their corporate and government clients. For example, Stratfor monitored and analysed the online activities of Bhopal activists, including the "Yes Men", for the US chemical giant Dow Chemical. The activists seek redress for the 1984 Dow Chemical/Union Carbide gas disaster in Bhopal, India. The disaster led to thousands of deaths, injuries in more than half a million people, and lasting environmental damage.

Stratfor has realised that its routine use of secret cash bribes to get information from insiders is risky. In August 2011, Stratfor CEO George Friedman confidentially told his employees: "We are retaining a law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing it either."

Stratfor's use of insiders for intelligence soon turned into a money-making scheme of questionable legality. The emails show that in 2009 then-Goldman Sachs Managing Director Shea Morenz and Stratfor CEO George Friedman hatched an idea to "utilise the intelligence" it was pulling in from its insider network to start up a captive strategic investment fund. CEO George Friedman explained in a confidential August 2011 document, marked DO NOT SHARE OR DISCUSS: "What StratCap will do is use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currencies and the like". The emails show that in 2011 Goldman Sach's Morenz invested "substantially" more than $4million and joined Stratfor's board of directors. Throughout 2011, a complex offshore share structure extending as far as South Africa was erected, designed to make StratCap appear to be legally independent. But, confidentially, Friedman told StratFor staff: "Do not think of StratCap as an outside organisation. It will be integral... It will be useful to you if, for the sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and Shea as another executive in Stratfor... we are already working on mock portfolios and trades". StratCap is due to launch in 2012.

The Stratfor emails reveal a company that cultivates close ties with US government agencies and employs former US government staff. It is preparing the 3-year Forecast for the Commandant of the US Marine Corps, and it trains US marines and "other government intelligence agencies" in "becoming government Stratfors". Stratfor's Vice-President for Intelligence, Fred Burton, was formerly a special agent with the US State Department's Diplomatic Security Service and was their Deputy Chief of the counterterrorism division. Despite the governmental ties, Stratfor and similar companies operate in complete secrecy with no political oversight or accountability. Stratfor claims that it operates "without ideology, agenda or national bias", yet the emails reveal private intelligence staff who align themselves closely with US government policies and channel tips to the Mossad including through an information mule in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Yossi Melman, who conspired with Guardian journalist David Leigh to secretly, and in violation of WikiLeaks' contract with the Guardian, move WikiLeaks US diplomatic cables to Israel.

Ironically, considering the present circumstances, Stratfor was trying to get into what it called the leak-focused "gravy train" that sprung up after WikiLeaks' Afghanistan disclosures:

"[Is it] possible for us to get some of that 'leak-focused' gravy train? This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred and Stick know better than anyone on the planet... Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of ´leak-focused' network security that focuses on preventing one's own employees from leaking sensitive information... In fact, I'm not so sure this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution."

Like WikiLeaks' diplomatic cables, much of the significance of the emails will be revealed over the coming weeks, as our coalition and the public search through them and discover connections. Readers will find that whereas large numbers of Stratfor's subscribers and clients work in the US military and intelligence agencies, Stratfor gave a complimentary membership to the controversial Pakistan general Hamid Gul, former head of Pakistan's ISI intelligence service, who, according to US diplomatic cables, planned an IED attack on international forces in Afghanistan in 2006. Readers will discover Stratfor's internal email classification system that codes correspondence according to categories such as 'alpha', 'tactical' and 'secure'. The correspondence also contains code names for people of particular interest such as 'Izzies' (members of Hezbollah), or 'Adogg' (Mahmoud Ahmedinejad).

Stratfor did secret deals with dozens of media organisations and journalists from Reuters to the Kiev Post. The list of Stratfor's "Confederation Partners", whom Stratfor internally referred to as its "Confed Fuck House" are included in the release. While it is acceptable for journalists to swap information or be paid by other media organisations, because Stratfor is a private intelligence organisation that services governments and private clients these relationships are corrupt or corrupting.

WikiLeaks has also obtained Stratfor's list of informants and, in many cases, records of its payoffs, including $1,200 a month paid to the informant "Geronimo" , handled by Stratfor's Former State Department agent Fred Burton.

WikiLeaks has built an investigative partnership with more than 25 media organisations and activists to inform the public about this huge body of documents. The organisations were provided access to a sophisticated investigative database developed by WikiLeaks and together with WikiLeaks are conducting journalistic evaluations of these emails. Important revelations discovered using this system will appear in the media in the coming weeks, together with the gradual release of the source documents.


Public partners in the investigation:

More than 25 media partners (others will be disclosed after their first publication):

Al Akhbar Lebanon http://english.al-akhbar.com
Al Masry Al Youm Egypt http://www.almasry-alyoum.com
Bivol Bulgaria http://bivol.bg
CIPER Chile http://ciperchile.cl
Dawn Media Pakistan http://www.dawn.com
L'Espresso Italy http://espresso.repubblica.it
La Repubblica Italy http://www.repubblica.it
La Jornada Mexico http://www.jornada.unam.mx/
La Nacion Costa Rica http://www.nacion.com
Malaysia Today Malaysia http://www.malaysia-today.net
McClatchy United States http://www.mcclatchy.com
Nawaat Tunisia http://nawaat.org
NDR/ARD Germany http://www.ard.de
Owni France http://owni.fr
Pagina 12 Argentina http://www.pagina12.com.ar
Plaza Publica Guatemala http://plazapublica.com.gt
Publico.es Spain http://www.publico.es
Rolling Stone United States http://www.rollingstone.com
Russia Reporter Russia http://rusrep.ru
Ta Nea Greece - http://www.tanea.gr
Taraf Turkey http://www.taraf.com.tr
The Hindu India http://www.thehindu.com
The Yes Men Bhopal Activists Global http://theyesmen.org
Nicky Hager for NZ Herald New Zealand http://www.nzherald.co.nz

[Magda Hassan]

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

[TABLE="class: cable, width: 749"]
[TR]
Email-ID[TD]1727162[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
Date[TD]1970-01-01 01:00:00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
From[TD]marko.papic@stratfor.com[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
To[TD]eisenstein@stratfor.com[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Hey Aaric,

That sounds good... That was just two days (really day and a half) in
Strasbourg as well.

I am back on November 6th. So let's plan to sit down and mull after that.

Cheers,

Marko

----- Original Message -----
From: "Aaric Eisenstein"
To: "Marko Papic"
Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 9:29:26 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

If you're up at 4, you're insane. I'll make the introductions when you're
back. When's that?

You're getting some amazing shit over there, just amazing. I want to sit
down with you when you get back and plot and scheme on how we can turn it
into cash.

Later,

AA

Aaric S. Eisenstein
SVP Publishing
STRATFOR
512-744-4308
512-744-4334 fax
aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor


----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:58 PM
To: eisenstein@stratfor.com
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt
But I don't know who Grant Perry is... or do I? It's 4am here so I may be
completely insane.

----- Original Message -----
From: eisenstein@stratfor.com
To: "Marko Papic"
Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:56:11 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

Believe grant Perry knows Bildt. Check with Grant if you need

Sent from my iPhone
On Sep 17, 2009, at 7:30 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
basically -- and the Balkans).
PUBLICATION: No
ATTRIBUTION:
SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

I got a lot of info on Carl Bildt. Our Swedish MEP contact is basically
his main ally. Bildt is apparently super tall, has photographic memory
and is very smart. He has a very rocky relationship with the current
Prime Minister because Reinfeldt was the youth leader of the Moderate
Party when Bildt was the Prime Minister briefly and the two did not get
along.

Bildt believes that Sweden should become a world power. He talks a lot
about the traditional sphere of Swedish influence in the Baltic (sort of
like our monograph). From his experiences in the Balkans he has decided
that he does not like Croats and Albanians.

He is also very critical of Russia. He called Putin a "chetnik" in the
middle of a meeting with an MEP group. He is essentially a personna non
grata in Moscow. He is also at odds with Sarkozy because before Sweden
received its EU Presidency he essentially told the French not to pull
the same stuff they did with Czech Republic.

He is very involved with enlargement. Sweden sees enlargement as a way
to break the German-Frenc stranglehold on the EU. His personal goal is
to see every Balkan state make one step forward towards accession during
his premiership.

I did meet his wife, who is also an MEP in the Parliament. She is
apparently Italian and does not speak really good Swedish, so she
couldn't get into the Swedish parliament. Instead, she campaigned for
the European and got in.

[Magda Hassan]

From his experiences in the Balkans he has decided
that he does not like Croats and Albanians.

:pointlaugh:

[Magda Hassan]

[TABLE="width: 567"]
[TR]
[TD="class: postHeader, colspan: 2"]

Live Blog: WikiLeaks Releases Stratfor Emails

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
UPDATE 8:32 PM EST George Friedman, founder and CEO, on what elites of the world don't get, in this email sent on February 20, 2010:

…One sense I'm getting here is that the American elite, alongwith Europe's, China's and just about everyone but Russia's his suffering from three problems: First, none are really aware of the political pressures on other elites. Second, they completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three, except for [Paul] Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites among themselves. We have a crisis of the elites, in my view…

UPDATE 8:20 PM EST Carl Bildt, foreign minister of Sweden, is the subject of this email. He apparently wants Sweden to be a "world power", doesn't like Russia or Nicolas Sarkozy. Bildt is alleged to be conspiring against Julian Assange in Sweden and he says Karl Rove is an old friend.
UPDATE 8:19 PM EST Greg Mitchell of The Nation is going to be live blogging too (I think).
UPDATE 8:14 PM EST This will help you read the emails. Each one is marked with the following:

SOURCE: The ID of the source, say CN123. Sometimes this is left "no source ID" when it's a new source.
ATTRIBUTION: How the source is to be attributed, i.e. "Source in the pharma distribution industry in China", Stratfor source, etc.
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Describes the source, for example: "Source works with Mercator Pharmaceutical Solutions, distributing pharma to developing countries." These include concrete details on the source for internal consumption so that there's a better understanding on the source's background and ability to make assessments on the ground.
PUBLICATION: Yes or No. If the option is yes it doesn't mean that it would be published, but rather that it _can_ be published.
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A/B
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst. This grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests.
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may change the range here in the future). this changes a lot based on the info provided. 1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be an example of maybe "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something that is spreading on the ground"
SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the publication" or any other special notes
SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and communicate with the source.

UPDATE 8:11 PM EST WikiLeaks has released 167 emails, which can be viewed here.
UPDATE 8:00 PM EST Publicio has published an article on the announcement. In it they make an interesting note about the CIA and the emails:

…[T]he CIA in the shade is financed largely with public money from Western countries , because their fees are paid by many ministries and government agencies around the world (although primarily serve the U.S. from his base in Austin, Texas), and also draws on the information we provide them to those who then sells it. A sweet deal emerged from the neoliberal doctrine of outsourcing all utilities (including secrets) and that is to privatize espionage…

Original Post
WikiLeaks has just announced that it is publishing the "Global Intelligence Files," over five million emails from the Texas-headquartered "global intelligence company known as Stratfor. The leaks organization describes the emails as documents that show "Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods."
The organization's press release explains the emails show the "inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defense Intelligence Agency."
The emails apparently show details on the "US government's attacks against Julian Assange and WikiLeaks," along with "Stratfor's own attempt to subvert WikiLeaks." They also expose the "revolving door that operates in private intelligence companies in the United States," like, for example, "how Stratfor has recruited a global network of informants who are paid via Swiss banks accounts and pre-paid credit cards." These informants are government employees, embassy staff members and journalists from all over the world.
They show how Stratfor targeted the "Yes Men" and monitored Bhopal activists for their activism against Dow Chemical, which was responsible for the Dow Chemical/Union Carbide disaster in Bhopal, India, in 1984 and caused thousands of deaths, the injury of millions of people and significant environmental damage.
Here is just one of salient example of the corruption WikiLeaks is shining a light on:

"[Y]ou have to take control of him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control… This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase" CEO George Friedman to Stratfor analyst Reva Bhalla on 6 December 2011, on how to exploit an Israeli intelligence informant providing information on the medical condition of the President of Venezuala, Hugo Chavez.

Beyond that, WikiLeaks uncovered how David Leigh of The Guardian was conspiring with Haaretzjournalist Yossi Melman to move US diplomatic cables to Israel in violation of a WikiLeaks contract.
To my knowledge, there are no actual emails on the WikiLeaks website to read yet. There is just this announcement, along with a list of 25 media organizations that have the emails and are working as media partners to cover revelations in the emails over the coming weeks.
Here is the press release from WikiLeaks. To truly understand the significance of this leak of emailswhich were given to WikiLeaks by members of Anonymousthe entire press release announcement has to be read.
WikiLeaks has put up tips on how to read the data they are publishing. They link to a guide that people should read to understand the jargon in the emails: Stratfor Glossary of Useful, Baffling and Strange Terms.
I will be live blogging the release of the Stratfor emails. Updates will appear at the top of the post. I will put up a new post at 7:00 pm EST each day (every 24 hours after the announcement).

[Peter Lemkin]

I sense this is going to be interesting!....Stratfor [Confed Fuckhouse, sorry] and their ilk are just privatized CIA, NSA, et al. Will be interesting to see how we get our 'news' in the MSM and who pays for what 'news' and why. :popworm:While I like Assange, I feel sorry for him...now he has the corporate world against him, as well as the major powers - what chance does he and his organization have for longterm survival?! Answer: It is up to the People worldwide. Governments and Corporations have been exposed [long exposed] as unfit to be in control of anything but their own toilet habits....if that.

One picked at random, is interesting:
Re: INSIGHT-BOLIVIA-St. Dept source's take on Morales Email-ID 1142108
Date 2010-04-27 19:06:01
From burton@stratfor.com
To zucha@stratfor.com, secure@stratfor.com

Back in the day, we would have been planning his (and Chavez's)
helicopter "accident." Guess I'm getting old, I think its best to keep
these lads around for comic relief. Evo and Chevez belong in the US
Congress and could probably get elected.

Korena Zucha wrote:
> SOURCE CODE: BOL701
> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: State Dept. source in Bolivia
> PUBLICATION: if desired
> SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing
> ITEM CREDIBILITY: Still testing
> DISTRIBUTION: Secure
> SPECIAL HANDLING: None
> SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
>
> In response to Evo Morales saying 'Chicken causes baldness and
> homosexuality'--
>
> Evo says stupid things every day, but the local media here (which is
> under his thumb) protects him in their 'lack of reporting' or twisting
> it for disinformation purposes. Unfortunately for him, he was
> addressing an international audience so he could not be protected by his
> lackey media drones from the international press. For the first time,
> the world got to see firsthand what a buffoon this 4th grade educated,
> narco-trafficking, murderous thug is. He is NOT the messiah and genius
> that everyone touts him to be. His rhetoric is anti-US and
> anti-Capitalism, so he is the darling to the ultra-left and self-hating
> US citizens (Danny Glover, Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, etc.) He is
> destroying Bolivia like Chavez is destroying Venezuela. However, there
> are now chinks in his armor. His recent hypocrisy was to dispatch his
> Minister of Finance last week to the US to engage those 'evil
> capitalists' there to invest in Bolivia. And, this was only a few days
> after he lashed out (ala MO of Fidel Castro) on the evils of capitalism
> and how the US was responsible for everything bad in the world. Over
> the weekend, Evo announced his government is engaging Vietnam and North
> Korea to establish formal diplomatic relations with them, open embassies
> and exchange ambassadors in an attempt to strengthen socialist
> governments to destroy the US and capitalism. He speaks of Robert
> Mugabe as a 'dear freedom fighter' who is doing great things for
> Zimbabwe. If George W. Bush made a stupid statement like his
> genetically modified chicken (and drinking Coca Cola, consuming Alka
> Shelzer, both were made in his diatribes but omitted by the media), the
> MSM (CNN, MSBNC, et all) would beat this Bush statement to death. You
> hear nothing from them when idiots like Chavez and Evo speak. This
> media bias is the double standard the left-leaning MSM media is guilty
> of. If they were doing their job, instead of being coconspirators in
> their liberal politics, FoxNews would not be needed to balance out
> objectivity. Finally, the nomination of Evo for the Nobel Peace Prize
> was just formally accepted yesterday as a result for his "Mother Earth"
> Summit [aka, vehement anti-US, anti-Capitalism (specifically targeting
> Coca Cola), anti-UN, pro-coca (sic cocaine) and narco-trafficking
> platform that was embraced by 22,000 anti-US, left-wing anarchists in
> attendance] as a result of the recent Climate Change Summit in Cochabamba.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle, etc. - VZ302 Email-ID 202526
Date 2011-12-06 03:43:19
From friedman@att.blackberry.net
To bhalla@stratfor.com

It does check out with what I heard in caracas but that increases the
chance its gossip.

If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is difficult
to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
your handler. This is because you're position is too close to the source
and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
The justification for the op would be specific classes of information and
on gaining control the first step would be determining his access. If he
failed the test contact would be terminated.

the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to discuss
the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus on
establishing the control relationship.

So from a professional point of view this target knows your affiliation,
understands your interests and you have not established any control which
is defined as a high confidence in his obedience.

So washington is filled with gossip with people whose access is not
established.

Just laying this out so you understand the core challenge. To be effective
your goal is the person and not the subject. Otherwise its gossip which is
information that you cannot definitively confirm.

This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:30:10 -0600 (CST)
To:
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
struggle, etc. - VZ302
Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while. I've listened to
waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the twitch.) I
figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his eyes. I've gotten
much better in evaluating what info to take more seriously and what info
to disregard. The info i included below is what I would consider more
seriously and seems to check out with what we've seen elsewhere.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "George Friedman"
To: "Reva Bhalla"
Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
struggle, etc. - VZ302

The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
To: George Friedman
Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
struggle, etc. - VZ302

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: watchofficer@statfor.com
Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
etc. - VZ302

SOURCE: VZ302
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
to be more skeptical on iran-related info
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
latam team sees this
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer in hormonal v.
chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
spine, ie. very serious.

Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
recent CELAC meeting. The medical team is made up of both Russian and
Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing. THe Russian team blamed the
Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
Chavez. The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
world.
(note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

Who replaces Chavez?
I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
a driver of the metro bus.) At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
pragmatic in the regime. If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble. They
can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
nervous. The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

The opposition -
Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
base is the D and E.
Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
actually seen as one of the people. The conversation between him adn the
Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
he says not yet.)

guess who has been most cooperative with us lately? The military elite.
These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
worse./ Completely unchecked. This price controls law is the government's
way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

(side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
right now.


Here is where todays emails are sorted: [URL="http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2012-02-27-00-stratfor-informants-contacts-and-partners.html"]http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate...rtners.htm


[/URL]

[Magda Hassan]

LONDONToday, Monday 27 February, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files more than five million emails from the Texas-headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The emails date from between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defense Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods, for example :"[Y]ou have to take control of him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control... This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase" CEO George Friedman to Stratfor analyst Reva Bhalla on 6 December 2011, on how to exploit an Israeli intelligence informant providing information on the medical condition of the President of Venezuala, Hugo Chavez. The material contains privileged information about the US government's attacks against Julian Assange and WikiLeaks and Stratfor's own attempts to subvert WikiLeaks. There are more than 4,000 emails mentioning WikiLeaks or Julian Assange. The emails also expose the revolving door that operates in private intelligence companies in the United States. Government and diplomatic sources from around the world give Stratfor advance knowledge of global politics and events in exchange for money. The Global Intelligence Files exposes how Stratfor has recruited a global network of informants who are paid via Swiss banks accounts and pre-paid credit cards. Stratfor has a mix of covert and overt informants, which includes government employees, embassy staff and journalists around the world.The material shows how a private intelligence agency works, and how they target individuals for their corporate and government clients. For example, Stratfor monitored and analysed the online activities of Bhopal activists, including the "Yes Men", for the US chemical giant Dow Chemical. The activists seek redress for the 1984 Dow Chemical/Union Carbide gas disaster in Bhopal, India. The disaster led to thousands of deaths, injuries in more than half a million people, and lasting environmental damage.Stratfor has realised that its routine use of secret cash bribes to get information from insiders is risky. In August 2011, Stratfor CEO George Friedman confidentially told his employees : "We are retaining a law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing it either."Stratfor's use of insiders for intelligence soon turned into a money-making scheme of questionable legality. The emails show that in 2009 then-Goldman Sachs Managing Director Shea Morenz and Stratfor CEO George Friedman hatched an idea to "utilise the intelligence" it was pulling in from its insider network to start up a captive strategic investment fund. CEO George Friedman explained in a confidential August 2011 document, marked DO NOT SHARE OR DISCUSS : "What StratCap will do is use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currencies and the like". The emails show that in 2011 Goldman Sach's Morenz invested "substantially" more than $4million and joined Stratfor's board of directors. Throughout 2011, a complex offshore share structure extending as far as South Africa was erected, designed to make StratCap appear to be legally independent. But, confidentially, Friedman told StratFor staff : "Do not think of StratCap as an outside organisation. It will be integral... It will be useful to you if, for the sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and Shea as another executive in Stratfor... we are already working on mock portfolios and trades". StratCap is due to launch in 2012. The Stratfor emails reveal a company that cultivates close ties with US government agencies and employs former US government staff. It is preparing the 3-year Forecast for the Commandant of the US Marine Corps, and it trains US marines and "other government intelligence agencies" in "becoming government Stratfors". Stratfor's Vice-President for Intelligence, Fred Burton, was formerly a special agent with the US State Department's Diplomatic Security Service and was their Deputy Chief of the counterterrorism division. Despite the governmental ties, Stratfor and similar companies operate in complete secrecy with no political oversight or accountability. Stratfor claims that it operates "without ideology, agenda or national bias", yet the emails reveal private intelligence staff who align themselves closely with US government policies and channel tips to the Mossad including through an information mule in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Yossi Melman, who conspired with Guardian journalist David Leigh to secretly, and in violation of WikiLeaks' contract with the Guardian, move WikiLeaks US diplomatic cables to Israel. Ironically, considering the present circumstances, Stratfor was trying to get into what it called the leak-focused "gravy train" that sprung up after WikiLeaks' Afghanistan disclosures : "[Is it] possible for us to get some of that 'leak-focused' gravy train ? This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred and Stick know better than anyone on the planet... Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of ´leak-focused' network security that focuses on preventing one's own employees from leaking sensitive information... In fact, I'm not so sure this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution."Like WikiLeaks' diplomatic cables, much of the significance of the emails will be revealed over the coming weeks, as our coalition and the public search through them and discover connections. Readers will find that whereas large numbers of Stratfor's subscribers and clients work in the US military and intelligence agencies, Stratfor gave a complimentary membership to the controversial Pakistan general Hamid Gul, former head of Pakistan's ISI intelligence service, who, according to US diplomatic cables, planned an IED attack on international forces in Afghanistan in 2006. Readers will discover Stratfor's internal email classification system that codes correspondence according to categories such as 'alpha', 'tactical' and 'secure'. The correspondence also contains code names for people of particular interest such as 'Hizzies' (members of Hezbollah), or 'Adogg' (Mahmoud Ahmedinejad).Stratfor did secret deals with dozens of media organisations and journalists from Reuters to the Kiev Post. The list of Stratfor's "Confederation Partners", whom Stratfor internally referred to as its "Confed Fuck House" are included in the release. While it is acceptable for journalists to swap information or be paid by other media organisations, because Stratfor is a private intelligence organisation that services governments and private clients these relationships are corrupt or corrupting.WikiLeaks has also obtained Stratfor's list of informants and, in many cases, records of its payoffs, including $1,200 a month paid to the informant "Geronimo" , handled by Stratfor's Former State Department agent Fred Burton. WikiLeaks has built an investigative partnership with more than 25 media organisations and activists to inform the public about this huge body of documents. The organisations were provided access to a sophisticated investigative database developed by WikiLeaks and together with WikiLeaks are conducting journalistic evaluations of these emails. Important revelations discovered using this system will appear in the media in the coming weeks, together with the gradual release of the source documents.END Public partners in the investigation
Comment
Current WikiLeaks status
How to read the data

Public partners in the investigation:

More than 25 media partners (others will be disclosed after their first publication) : Al Akhbar Lebanon http://english.al-akhbar.com
Al Masry Al Youm Egypt http://www.almasry-alyoum.com
Bivol Bulgaria http://bivol.bg
CIPER Chile http://ciperchile.cl
Dawn Media Pakistan http://www.dawn.com
L'Espresso Italy http://espresso.repubblica.it
La Repubblica Italy http://www.repubblica.it
La Jornada Mexico www.jornada.unam.mx/
La Nacion Costa Rica http://www.nacion.com
Malaysia Today Malaysia www.malaysia-today.net
McClatchy United States http://www.mcclatchy.com
Nawaat Tunisia http://nawaat.org
NDR/ARD Germany http://www.ndr.de
Owni France http://owni.fr
Pagina 12 Argentina www.pagina12.com.ar
Plaza Publica Guatemala http://plazapublica.com.gt
Publico.es Spain www.publico.es
Rolling Stone United States http://www.rollingstone.com
Russia Reporter Russia http://rusrep.ru
Ta Nea Greece - http://www.tanea.gr
Taraf Turkey http://www.taraf.com.tr
The Hindu India www.thehindu.com
The Yes Men Bhopal Activists Global http://theyesmen.org
Nicky Hager New Zealand

Comment:

WikiLeaks Kristinn Hrafnsson, Official WikiLeaks representative, +35 4821 7121Other comment :
Bhopal Medical Appeal (in UK) Colin Toogood : colintoogood@bhopal.org / +44 (0) 1273 603278/ +44 (0) 7798 845074
International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal (in India) Rachna Dhingra : rachnya@gmail.com, +91 98 261 67369
Yes Men mike@theyesmen.org / +44 (0) 7578 682321 - andy@theyesmen.org, +1-718-208-0684
Privacy International +44 (0) 20 7242 2836 Twitter tag : #gifiles

CURRENT WIKILEAKS STATUS:

An extrajudicial blockade imposed by VISA, MasterCard, PayPal, Bank of America, and Western Union that is designed to destroy WikiLeaks has been in place since December 2010. The EU Commission is considering whether it will open a formal investigation, but two lawsuits have been filed (http://wikileaks.org/Banking-Blocka...). There are also other ways to donate (https://shop.wikileaks.org/donate). It is legal to donate, including in the United States. The US Treasury has publicly stated that that there are no grounds to place WikiLeaks on a US government blacklist.WikiLeaks Founder and Publisher Julian Assange has not been charged with any crime in any country. Four prosecutors are currently trying to charge him under the Espionage Act of 1917 before a closed Grand Jury in Virginia, in the United States. Julian Assange has been detained for 447 days (10,728 hours) since Dec 7, 2010, without charge, and he is currently awaiting a decision from the UK Supreme Court on extradition to Sweden (http://www.justiceforassange.com/Su...). The decision is expected in March. The decision on whether he will be onwardly extradited to the US lies in the hands of the Swedish Executive, but Sweden's Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has refused to state whether he will protect Assange from a politically motivated extradition to the United States (http://justice4assange.com/US-Extra... ).The Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt has repeatedly attacked WikiLeaks this week in a bizarre manner (http://ferrada-noli.blogspot.com/20... ).An alleged WikiLeaks US military source, Bradley Manning, has been in pre-trial detention for 639 days (http://bradleymanning.org/ ). His arraignment took place on 24 February 2012. In December 2011, Manning's attorney revealed in the preliminary hearing that the US government is attempting to enter a plea deal with Manning in order to "go after" Assange. Manning has 22 charges against him, including violating the Espionage Act of 1917 and aiding the enemy. Manning has deferred entering a plea. Julian Assange and WikiLeaks are legally represented in the Manning hearings by the US Centre for Constitutional Rights (http://ccrjustice.org/ ). WikiLeaks was denied full access to Manning's hearing after appeal (http://ccrjustice.org/newsroom/pres... ). WikiLeaks put out a statement relating to Manning's trial ahead of the Article 32 Hearing : (http://www.wikileaks.org/Statement-... ).The alleged WikiLeaks-supporting hacktivists known as the "PayPal 14" were arrested in 2011 following co-ordinated online demonstrations against the financial services companies that are carrying out the unlawful financial blockade on WikiLeaks (VISA, MasterCard, Paypal, Western Union, Bank of America). They are represented by attorney Stanley Cohen and will go before court in May 2012 (http://www.cyberguerrilla.org/?p=4644 ).WikiLeaks is about to launch a distributed, encrypted "Facebook for revolutionaries" (https://wlfriends.org/ ).Julian Assange is currently directing interviews, from house arrest, for a programme on the future of the world that is syndicated to various broadcasters. The first show will be broadcast in March (http://www.wikileaks.org/New-Assang... )

HOW TO READ THE DATA

This is a glossary and information on how to understand the internal terms and codes used by Stratfor in their emails. It is not a complete list. We call on the public to add to this list by tweeting #gifindTo see a list of the terms George Friedman considers useful for his staff to know please download this PDF : The Stratfor Glossary of Useful, Baffling and Strange Intelligence Terms.

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OPEN SOURCE VS. "COVERT"

---

As you browse through the content, you will notice that a large set of it is what is classified as "open source" (subject lines which include [OS]). These are basically email threads that start with someone posting a published and accessible source, such as news sites, and follow with commentary by the staff. In one of the emails, Joseph Nye is referenced saying :"Open source intelligence is the outer pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, without which one can neither begin nor complete the puzzle"

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CODES IN SUBJECT LINES

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Many of the emails have codes in the subject lines as well as in the body, to make it easier for the staff to "quickly identify when we need to go back and have a look-see."
[*] :Examples : INSIGHT - COUNTRY - Subject - SOURCE CODE INSIGHT - CHINA - Trains and planes - CN1000Please refer to the glossary for the code names of subject and country tags, as well as mailing list names.

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SOURCE CODES

---

A lot of interesting stuff comes from "sources". Sources are either informal contacts or people they have a formal relationship with. The IDs for sources have the format of CN120 or ME001. In terms of the character part, it refers to a region or a country :A) Regions ME - Middle East region EU - European Union EE - Eastern Europe LA- South America SA- South AsiaB) Countries or Orgs CN - China PK - Pakistan IN- India ML - Malaysia VN - Vietnam NP- NepalUS - United States VZ - Venezuela CO- Colombia BR-Brazil NC- Nicaragua MX- Mexico CL/CH- Chile AR- Argentina PY- Paraguay BOL- BoliviaRU - Russia UA - Ukraine GE - Georgia TJ - Tajikstan MD - Moldova BG -Bulgaria CR/CZ- Czech Republic PT- PortugalZA - South Africa AO - Angola SO - Somalia NG- Nigeria CD- DR Congo CI- Cote D'Ivoire ZW- Zimbabwe ZM- Zambia RW- Rwanda KE- Kenya ET- Ethiopia SD -Sudan MA- Morocco SN- Senegal GN- Guinea SL- Sierra LeoneIR - Iran IQ- Iraq IL or IS- Israel SA- Saudi Arabia SY- Syria KU- Kuwait Y or YN - Yemen HZ - Hizbollah TK - Turkey LN- Lebanon LY- Libya UAE- UAE EG- Egypt (etc.)C) Odd codes OCH - Old China hand, a finance insider. Stick - Scott Stewart, high level employee Z's - Zetas, Mexican drug gang

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INSIGHTS FORMAT

---

When "insights" are sent, they usually have the following header information :SOURCE : The ID of the source, say CN123. Sometimes this is left "no source ID" when it's a new source.ATTRIBUTION : How the source is to be attributed, i.e. "Source in the pharma distribution industry in China", Stratfor source, etc.SOURCE DESCRIPTION : Describes the source, for example : "Source works with Mercator Pharmaceutical Solutions, distributing pharma to developing countries." These include concrete details on the source for internal consumption so that there's a better understanding on the source's background and ability to make assessments on the ground.PUBLICATION : Yes or No. If the option is yes it doesn't mean that it would be published, but rather that it _can_ be published.SOURCE RELIABILITY : A/BSOURCE RELIABILITY : A-F, A being the best and F being the worst. This grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests.ITEM CREDIBILITY : 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may change the range here in the future). this changes a lot based on the info provided. 1 is "you can take this to the bank" and 10 would be an example of maybe - "this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something that is spreading on the ground"SPECIAL HANDLING : often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the publication" or any other special notesSOURCE HANDLER : the person who can take follow-up questions and communicate with the source.

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MAILING LISTS

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alpha@stratfor.com Discussions circulated exclusively among analysts, writers and higher-ups, including 'insights' and discussions about sources and source meetings. secure@stratfor.com Discussions circulated exclusively among analysts and higher-ups, and only for use within continental US (analysts traveling 'overseas' are removed from the list for the duration of their journey). analysts@stratfor.com - Discussion among analysts only, who manage sources, gather and analyze intelligence. ct@stratfor.com Ongoing discussions to collect and analyze counterterrorism intelligence, circulated among select group of analysts. tactical@statfor.com Non-time sensitive discussions for internal training on technical and tactical matters within field of counterterrorism. intelligence@stratfor.com gvalerts@stratfor.com - Related to Gas ventures clients military@stratfor.com Military list for pre-approved staff africa@stratfor.com eastasia@stratfor.com mesa@stratfor.com Middle East/South Asia list for pre-approved staff. eurasia@stratfor.com os@stratfor.com List with information from the public domain circulated and discussed among all employees. adp@stratfor.com List for ADPs. See Glossary. translations@stratfor.com alerts@stratfor.com responses@stratfor.com dialog-list@stratfor.com

---

GLOSSARY

---

a) Industry and other misc. tags :HUMINT - Human intelligence OSINT- Open source intelligence DATA FLU BIRDFLU ECON TECH ENERGY MINING GV - Gas Venture CT - Counterterrorism G1-G4 B2-B4 S1-S4 MILITARY or MIL PENTAGON AQ- Al Qaeda AQAP - Al Qaeda in the Arabia Peninsula SF- Special Forces CONUS- Continental USb) Special internal codewords :Hizzies or HZ - Hizbollah Izzies or IZ - Israel A-dogg - Mahmoud Ahmadinajad, Iranian President Baby bashar - Bashar Al-Assad, Syrian President Uncle Mo - Moammar Gaddhafi ADP- Analyst Development Program. Four-month program at STRATFOR from which candidates mostly recent college graduates are selected for hire. Strictly protect and protect - Often mentioned in the 'subject', means that the source is protected. Played- A term used for procuring sensitive information from sources. E.g. from one of the secure list messages circulating the 'complete scenario for the Israeli team in Centcom's war game,' the analyst who procured the data wrote : "I played the head of the Mossad which was great fun." Excomm- Appears to be 'executive committee' of STRATFOR.c) Regions and OrgsAFRICOM - African countries LATAM - Latin American MERCOSUR NATFA ASEAN APEC FSU - Former Soviet Union countries MESA or MIDDLEEAST - Middle East EASTASIA OPEC EURASIA SA - South Asia FSB- Federal Security Service (Russia)

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ATTACHED DOCUMENTS

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Attached documents can be searched by Filename or part of the file name. Preliminary searches for filenames using the terms 'lists', 'source lists' or 'insight lists', coupled with the names of source handlers (e.g. Reva for Turkey, Brazil or Venezuela) produced Excel lists of the source names, contact info and source descriptions which correspond to the source codes (e.g. ME1315).

---

Sourcing Criteria

---

The following are the proposed criteria for analyzing both sources and insight.1. Source Timeliness 2. Source Accessibility/Position 3. Source Availability 4. Insight Credibility 5. Insight UniquenessSource Timeliness : This is the average grade on how long this particular source turns around tasks and replies to inquiries. It may change but is more of a static indicator.Source Accessibility : Accessibility weighs the source's position to have certain knowledge in a particular field. So, for example, if we are looking for energy insight and the source is an official in an energy agency, his or her Accessibility would be ranked higher than if s/he was a banker giving insight on energy. While we would welcome a banker giving his/her insight, a good source may not have a high accessibility ranking if they aren't in a position to offer reliable insight on a certain topic. The source's access to decision makers, specific training or education in the desired topic area, specific knowledge of events/situations/incidents can also be considered.Source Availability : How often can we go to this source ? Are they someone we can tap daily, weekly, monthly, yearly ?Insight Credibility : This is our assessment of the veracity of the insight offered. Here we need to consider whether or not this is disinformation, speculation, correct data or knowledgeable interpretation. Any bias that the source is displaying or any specific viewpoints or personal background the source is using in the assessment provided should also be considered.Insight Uniqueness : Is this insight something that could be found in OS ? If it is but the analysis of the information is unique, it would still have a high uniqueness ranking. Or, if it is concrete data, but is something that is only offered to industry insiders, i.e. stats that aren't published but that aren't secret, it would still have a high uniqueness score.ScoringAll of the above factors will be scored on an A-F scale, with A being exemplary and F being useless.Source Timeliness : A = turnaround within 24 hours B = turnaround within 48 hours C = turnaround within a week D = turnaround within a month F = lucky to receive a reply at allSource Accessibility : A = Someone with intimate knowledge of the particular insight B = Someone within the industry but whose knowledge of the topic is not exact (e.g. if we were asking someone in the oil industry about natural gas) C = Someone working close to the industry who doesn't have intimate knowledge of a particular topic but can speak to it intelligently (e.g. a financial consultant asked to gauge the movement of the stock market) D = Someone who may know a country but doesn't have any concrete insight into a particular topic but can offer rumors and discussions heard on the topic F = Someone who has no knowledge of a particular industry at allSource Availability : A = Available pretty much whenever B = Can tap around once a week C = Can tap about once a month D = Can tap only several times a year F = Very limited availabilityInsight Credibility : A = We can take this information to the bank B = Good insight but maybe not entirely precise C = Insight is only partially true D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly false or just pure speculation. F = Likely to be disinformationInsight Uniqueness : A = Can't be found anywhere else B = Can only be found in limited circles C = Insight can be found in OS, but the source has an interesting take/analysis D = Insight can be found in OS, but still may not be common knowledge F = Insight is accessible in numerous locationsDaily Insight ScoringSOURCE : code ATTRIBUTION : this is what we should say if we use this info in a publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source on the ground, etc SOURCE DESCRIPTION : this is where we put the more concrete details of the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight. PUBLICATION : Yes or no. If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will publish it, but only that we can publish it. SOURCE RELIABILITY : A-F. A being the best and F being the worst. This grades the source overall - access to information, timeliness, availability, etc. In short, how good is this source ? ITEM CREDIBILITY : A-F. A = we can take this info to the bank ; B = Good insight but maybe not entirely precise ; C = Insight is only partially true ; D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly false or just pure speculation ; F = Likely to be disinformation. SPECIAL HANDLING : often this is "none" but it may be something like, "if you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in thepublication" or any other special notes SOURCE HANDLER : the person who can take follow-up questions and communicate with the source.

[Magda Hassan]

'Shadow CIA' buys state secrets for cash via Swiss bank accounts, claims WikiLeaks as it releases 'stolen' files

• Five million emails obtained from U.S.-based global security analysis firm Stratfor 'will reveal murky truth about intelligence gathering'
  
• Julian Assange claims firm is monitoring activists for corporate giants and taking information from U.S. government department insiders
  

By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
Last updated at 8:43 PM on 27th February 2012

• 
  

Whistleblowing website WikiLeaks today started to publish more than five million confidential emails from the global intelligence company Stratfor.
The emails, dated from July 2004 to late December 2011, are said to reveal the 'inner workings' of US-based firm known as the 'Shadow CIA'.Among the allegations to emerge is that Stratfor's claim to be a media organisation providing a subscription intelligence newsletter is a front for 'running paid informants networks' and 'laundering those payments through the Bahamas, through Switzerland, through private credit cards'.Stratfor 'is monitoring Bhopal activists for Dow Chemicals, Peta activities for Coca-Cola', WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange claimed at a press conference in London today.However, what could cause the greatest embarrassment for the U.S. government is his suggestion that information is also being gathered by paying contacts from agencies including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the U.S. Marines and the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.

Scroll down for video

[B]WHO ARE STRATFOR?[/B]

U.S.-based security think-tank Stratfor is known in some circles as the 'shadow CIA'.
The Austin, Texas-based organisation provides political, economic and military analysis to help clients reduce risk, according to a description on its YouTube page.
Founded by George Friedman, it further describes itself as a subscription-based publisher of geopolitical analysis with an intelligence-based approach to gathering information.
In December, the Anonymous movement vowed to heap further embarrassment on Stratfor.
It wants to humiliate the firm by publishing the communications.
And it said they could provide the 'smoking gun for a number of crimes' - although exactly which crimes were not specified.

Adding insult to inury, the hackers said Stratfor, which charges up to 300,000 subscribers for its reports and analysis, was 'clueless' when it came to database security.


Assange said: 'Here we have a private intelligence firm, relying on informants from the U.S. government, foreign intelligence agencies with questionable reputations and journalists.'
Emails between George Friedman, the founder of Stratfor, and Karl Rover, a senior adviser to George Bush, are among those that are being released.
At today's press conference, Mr Assange said he would not reveal where the emails had come from.'We are a source protection organisation,' he said. 'As a source protection organisation and simply as a media organisation we don't discuss or speculate on sourcing.'

The documents are believed to have come from loose-knit hacker group Anonymous, which claimed to have stolen information from the firm in December.Wikileaks said the emails show Stratfor's 'web of informers, pay-off structure, payment-laundering techniques and psychological methods'.It also said the material contains privileged information about the U.S. government's attacks against Julian Assange and WikiLeaks and Stratfor's own attempts to subvert WikiLeaks.The group said there are more than 4,000 emails mentioning WikiLeaks or Julian Assange.
But today Mr Assange said more information would emerge in the near future: 'We have looked most closely at the actions against us, the bigger story is likely to come out of this probably in three or four days' time.'Assange told how Stratfor 'fronts as an intelligence publisher', but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations


Trademark mask: Hacking group Anonymous is believed to have obtained the Stratfor emails for WikiLeaks
He added: 'Today Wikileaks started releasing over five million emails from private intelligence firm Stratfor based in Texas.
'Together with 25 other media partners from around the world we have been investigating the activities of this company for some months.
'And what we have discovered is a company that is a private intelligence Enron.
'On the surface it presents as if it's a media organisation providing a private subscription intelligence newsletter.
'But underneath it is running paid informants networks, laundering those payments through the Bahamas, and through Switzerland, through private credit cards.
'It is monitoring Bhopal activists for Dow Chemicals, Peta activities for Coca-Cola.
'It is engaged in a seedy business.'


[B]JULIAN ASSANGE IN THE SPOTLIGHT[/B]

Julian Assange burst into the public consciousness in April 2010 when WikiLeaks released Collateral Murder - video footage of a U.S. air crew shooting Iraqi civilians in 2007.
The whistleblower website, which claimed a database of 1.2 million documents within a year of its 2006 launch, regularly hit the headlines in 2010 with a series of leaks.
The U.S. Embassy cables, Afghanistan war logs and Iraq war logs, which were drip-fed to the media in 2010, helped raise his profile.
The Australian-born 40-year-old is currently under house arrest in Britain and fighting extradition to Sweden for questioning over alleged sex crimes.
He is accused of sexual misconduct by two ex-WikiLeaks volunteers.


Mr Assange said Stratfor was using the secret intelligence it had paid for to invest in a wide range of 'geopolitical financial instruments'.'This makes News of the World look like kindergarten,' he added.Mr Assange said the exposure of the emails was part of a long history WikiLeaks has had in exposing the activities of secret organisations.He said: 'The activities of intelligence organisations increasingly are privatised and once privatised they are taken out of the realm of the Freedom of Information Act, of U.S. military law and so they are often used by governments who want to conceal particular activity.'But Stratfor is simply out of control.'Even as a private intelligence organisation it is being completely hopeless in protecting the identity of its informants, or even providing accurate information. It is engaged in internal deals with a financial investment firm that it is setting up.'It really is some type of Enron where there is not even proper corporate control within the organisation.'
WikiLeaks said it had worked with 25 media organisations to investigate and information would be released over the coming weeks.The group said the emails expose a 'revolving door' in private intelligence companies in the U.S., claiming government and diplomatic sources give Stratfor advance knowledge of global politics and events in exchange for money.'The Global Intelligence Files exposes how Stratfor has recruited a global network of informants who are paid via Swiss banks accounts and pre-paid credit cards,' the group said.'Stratfor has a mix of covert and overt informants, which includes government employees, embassy staff and journalists around the world.HQ: Stratfor, based in Austin, Texas, said the release of its stolen emails was an attempt to silence and intimidate it - and vowed it would not be cowed

'The material shows how a private intelligence agency works, and how they target individuals for their corporate and government clients.'WikiLeaks accused Stratfor of 'routine use of secret cash bribes to get information from insiders', and claims an email from chief executive George Friedman in August 2011 suggested his concern over its legality.In it, he wrote: 'We are retaining a law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.'I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing it either.'The group said: 'Like WikiLeaks' diplomatic cables, much of the significance of the emails will be revealed over the coming weeks, as our coalition and the public search through them and discover connections.'It said Stratfor did secret deals with dozens of media organisations and journalists - from Reuters to the Kiev Post.
'While it is acceptable for journalists to swap information or be paid by other media organisations, because Stratfor is a private intelligence organisation that services governments and private clients these relationships are corrupt or corrupting.'The group said it has also obtained Stratfor's list of informants and, in many cases, records of its pay-offs.
[B]ANONYMOUS: THE HACKERS WITH NO CENTRAL LEADERS, BASE OR MISSION[/B]


Anonymous is a notorious group of hackers around the world who have no central authority.
The group was previously in the news for briefly shutting down the FBI and Justice Department websites in the U.S. after popular file-sharing website Megaupload was closed down.

They work by agreeing on targets in internet chat rooms and then attacking at the same time. One of their most famous targets that generated much publicity was the Church of Scientology in 2008.

Anonymous also attacked the Amazon, Visa, MasterCard and PayPal websites in 2010 after the companies decided to stop working with Julian Assange's controversial website WikiLeaks.

They have also attacked the websites of the Motion Picture Association of America and Recording Industry Association of America for tightly controlling copyright, reported Agence France-Presse.

Last autumn one hacker affiliated with Anonymous was arrested for allegedly targeting Sony's PlayStation Network, Qriocity music streaming and Sony Online Entertainment.




Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...z1ndlG1i6c

[Peter Lemkin]

Stratfor issued a statement on the release which said WikiLeaks' actions are "deplorable, unfortunate and illegal" and that some emails may be "forged or altered" while others are "authentic," but they will not validate either.
An email has been circulating alleged to be Stratfor CEO George Friedman announcing his resignation, but Stratfor has tweeted that this is a false rumor.
WikiLeaks is holding a press conference on the release at the Frontline Club, February 27 at 12PM. It is possible that it will be live-streamed at Frontline Club's livestream channel.

[Magda Hassan]

Charges against Assange drawn up in US, says email

Philip Dorling February 29, 2012

UNITED States prosecutors have drawn up secret charges against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, according to a confidential internal email obtained from a private US intelligence company, Stratfor.
In the email, sent to Stratfor intelligence analysts on January 26 last year, the company's vice-president for intelligence, Fred Burton, responded to a media report concerning US investigations targeting WikiLeaks. He wrote: "We have a sealed indictment on Assange."
Underlining the sensitivity of the information - apparently obtained from a US government source - he wrote "Pls protect" and "Not for Pub[lication]".
Mr Burton is a well-known expert on security and counter-terrorism with close ties to US intelligence and law enforcement agencies. He is a former chief of counterterrorism in the US State Department diplomatic security service.
Stratfor, which is based in Austin, Texas, provides intelligence and analysis to corporate and government subscribers.
On Monday, WikiLeaks began the release of more than 5 million leaked Stratfor emails which it said showed "how a private intelligence agency works, and how they target individuals for their corporate and government clients". The Agehas access to the emails through an investigative partnership with WikiLeaks.
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The news that US prosecutors drew up a secret indictment against Mr Assange more than 12 months ago comes as the WikiLeaks founder awaits a British Supreme Court decision on his appeal against extradition to Sweden to be questioned in relation to sexual assault allegations.
Mr Assange, who has not been charged with any offence in Sweden, fears extradition to Stockholm will open the way for his extradition to the US on possible espionage or conspiracy charges over WikiLeaks' publication of hundreds of thousands of leaked classified US reports.
US army private Bradley Manning was last week committed to face court martial for 22 alleged offences including ''aiding the enemy'' by leaking classified US documents to WikiLeaks.
In December, The Age revealed the contents of Australian diplomatic cables that confirmed WikiLeaks was the target of a US Justice Department investigation ''unprecedented both in its scale and nature'' and suggested that media reports that a secret grand jury had been convened in Alexandria, Virginia, were ''likely true''.
The Australian embassy in
Washington reported in December 2010 that the Justice Department was pursuing an ''active and vigorous inquiry into whether Julian Assange can be charged under US law, most likely the 1917 Espionage Act''.
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The Stratfor emails show that WikiLeaks' publication of US diplomatic cables triggered intense discussion within the "global intelligence" company.
Stratfor "senior watch officer" Chris Farnham, an Australian, advocated revoking Mr Assange's Australian citizenship, adding: "I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that potentially damage Australian interests upset me.
''If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done, I don't think I'd have too much of a problem."
However, Mr Farnham also referred to a conversation with a family friend who he said knew one of the Swedish women who have accused Mr Assange of sexual assault, and added that "there is absolutely nothing behind it other than prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves".
While some Stratfor analysts decried what they saw as "clear anti-Americanism" on Mr Assange's part, others welcomed the leaks and debated WikiLeaks' longer term impact on secret diplomacy and intelligence.
Leaked Stratfor emails can be found at
wikileaks.org/the-gifiles.html

[Peter Lemkin]

How about revoking Farnham's citizenship? There really are fascists under every stone all around the world - strangely mostly at very senior levels of power and influence - often operating in secrecy.