The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

Why hasn't Trump's transition team called the Pentagon?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/16/politics/d...index.html

Check this out.

[Cliff Varnell]

Why hasn't Trump's transition team called the Pentagon?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/16/politics/d...index.html

Check this out.

I like this rosy projection:

<quote on>

That is why I will not write about John Bolton or Rudy Giuliani as coming Secretary of State. Both are possible (unqualified) candidates. But others are just as likely to get that position. We will only know who it is after the official release.

<quote off>

Got butter on that popcorn?

[Paul Rigby]

What are the Ukronazis up to in Crimea?

November 25, 2016

http://thesaker.is/what-are-the-ukronazi...in-crimea/

First, it appeared to be a fluke: this summer the Ukronazi regime sent a small terrorist unit into Crimea tasked with blowing up several targets in the Crimea (see here for details). They were arrested by the Russian security services. In November, another two saboteurs were caught by the FSB (see here). And now something really remarkable happened. The Ukronazi security service kidnapped two Russian citizens in broad daylight and accused them of being "deserters". Turns out that the two kidnapped men are Maksim Odintsov and Alexander Baranov and that both of them are junior servicemen in the Russian military (ensign and junior sergeant). Apparently, what happened is this: Odintsov and Baranov used to serve in the Ukrainian military (at least that is what the SBU claims), but when Crimea, from where Odintsov and Baranov are, returned to Russia they did what tens of thousands of other Ukrainian servicemen did they joined the Russian military. The two were lured to the neutral zone between Crimea and the Ukraine by men who promised them that they could give them diplomas proving that they had a higher education from Ukrainian institutions. You can watch this video to see what actually happened next (no translation needed):

[video=youtube_share;lof2FaTR9zI]http://youtu.be/lof2FaTR9zI[/video]

The video also shows one of the two men, with a superb shiner on his face, admitting that he had served in the Ukrainian military and that he is guilty of treason. What is remarkable here is that the Ukronazis kidnapped these two men in broad daylight in an location which was clearly under video monitoring, and that they then showed one of the hostages with a clear sign of the beating he received. No matter how incompetent the SBU is, they are not so incompetent as to not to realize the fantastically provocative nature of their actions. This was an absolutely deliberate provocation whose goal was to get some kind of Russian reaction, either in Crimea or somewhere else.

What were they really hoping for?

Probably for some kind of Russian reaction which would reach across the border: some kind of attack on the Ukrainian border post, or maybe an artillery strike. Maybe even an attempt to free the two men, or even a retaliatory counter-kidnapping. What they knew is that any Russian reaction across the border would have been met by a hysterical chorus of outrage from the western political leaders and their corporate media.

For the time being, the (hideously slowly clumsy and poorly updated) website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had nothing to say. The (marginally better) website of the President of Russia offered this reaction:

Question: Mr President, I want to clarify the situation with the Russian military service personnel detained by the Ukrainians. What measures are you taking?
Vladimir Putin: I cannot say anything about these measures yet and can say only what we know at present, which is that these military servicemen formerly served in the Ukrainian armed forces and, after Crimea's reunification with Russia, decided to serve in the Russian armed forces.
In this respect, let me say first of all that we have always had great respect for and trust in Ukrainian military service personnel, and therefore proposed that they continue their service in our ranks.
Second, they wanted to obtain confirmation of education at one of Ukraine's higher education establishments, and this was why they went to the border. They were lured a few metres further and detained.
I think this kind of treachery will ultimately turn against those who carry out such acts. This is the same kind of thing as switching off the power supply to Crimea in winter and just before New Year. If people in Ukraine think they can win Crimea residents' sympathy this way, this amounts to an attack using inappropriate means, to use legal language.
In other words: other than issuing a verbal condemnation, Russia will not react in any dramatic manner. This is, of course, the correct decision, especially now that Trump is hopefully going to replace the Neocons with some patriotically minded and mentally sane officials. But there is also an inherent risk in this Russian stance: it invites the Ukronazis to further escalate their provocations.

Consider this: while the junta in Kiev has been constantly shelling the Donbass, the Kremlin did nothing to stop it. When top Novorussian officials, such as Motorola, were murdered by somebody hired by the junta, the Russians again did nothing. Nor did the Moscow retaliate when the Ukronazis sent saboteurs into Crimea. What I fear is that next the Ukronazis will combine these two provocations into one and attack Crimea directly, either by lobbing a mortar shell directly across the border or even with an artillery attack upon a town in northern Crimea.

While from a military point of view a Russian response is a no-brainer, from the political point of view this might be much harder. Imagine this:

The SBU hides one single artillery piece in a town just north of the Crimean-Ukrainian border and then begins to shell, at night, of course, Russian military positions or town, in northern Crimea. Several Russian soldiers or civilians are killed, more are wounded. The Russian counter-battery radars will immediately an easily detect the location from which these attacks came, but we all know since the MH-17 that Russian radar recordings are considered worthless by the western corporate media. And if the Russian counter-strike hits a town, this will be presented as yet another aggression against the "sovereign and free Ukraine". The Russians all remember how in 08.08.08 it was Russia, not Georgia, which was declared the aggressor and how when months later the investigative committees of the EU declared that, well, no, it was actually the Georgians who attacked the Russian peacekeepers nobody in the West paid any attention to this. The reality is that the otherwise weak, militarily incompetent, Ukraine holds the "escalation dominance" over Russia, especially in Crimea. Yes, on every rung of the escalatory ladder Russia is vastly more capable and powerful than the Ukraine, but it is the Ukraine which can chose on which rung of the escalatory ladder it choses to engage Russia. Sounds paradoxical?

That is because, as I have been repeating for years now, the purpose of the regime in Kiev is not to win an unwinnable conflict against Russia, but only to draw Russia into the Ukraine. Russia should have escalation dominance over the Ukraine, but in reality it is Ukraine which will get to chose at which rung of the escalation ladder Russia will be forced to react. This is a typical case where "the action is in the reaction".

And let's be honest, with the US Neocons out of power very soon, at least temporarily, the junta in Kiev has absolutely nothing to lose from a direct, blatant, attack on Russia. Think of it: the EU and NATO leaders in Europe are absolutely horrified by the Trump victory and they are desperate for a crisis, any crisis, which would give them a meaning, a sense of purpose, a justification before the European public opinion. As for the Americans, Trump will only become President on January 20th, that leaves them enough time to react to any crisis, even an artificial one, in such a manner as to preempt any attempts by the new administration to improve relations with Russia.

Sure looks to me like the Neocons, the EU/NATO comprador elites and the Ukronazis in Kiev all have exactly the same interests: trigger a crisis before Trump is sworn in.

In the meantime, the Minister of Culture of the Ukraine has declared that the people of the Donbass a "genetically unfit" to accept the Ukrainian culture (does anybody still wonder why I call this regime "Ukronazi" and not "Ukrainian"?) while the European Parliament has declared that the EU is in a state of "informational war" with Russia and that the EU needs to "respond" to the Russian attack.

As for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all preparing for an imminent Russian invasion. As for the Poles, they are busy exhuming the body of Lech Kaczynski in the hope to prove that Russian shot down his aircraft in 2010.

The next couple of months will be very dangerous indeed.

The Saker

PS: Just when I was about to post this article, I saw this on RT: Kiev to hold missile-firing exercise over Crimea. This confirms, alas, the morbid drive of the Ukronazis to get some kind of provocation going in Crimea.

[David Guyatt]

That's a good article and underscores the strategy in use - which is only possible because the west relies upon a disgraceful and disgraced media.

Joseph Goebbels would've been wet himself about them.

::

[Lauren Johnson]

Here's an update from Moon of Alabama regarding the Ukraine puppet regime trying to draw Russia into a war.

Rumor has it that Givi was wounded in one of the attacks.

Fighting in east Ukraine has restarted. This is an attempt by "deep state" forces to prevent any rapprochement between the U.S. and Russia under the new Trump administration.The west-Ukrainian forces under command of the coup government of President Poroshenko started a large attack against the Russian supported Ukrainian self-defense forces in Donetsk and Lugansk governate.
A ceasefire arranged after the Minsk II agreement provided for demilitarized zones along a line of separation. The Ukrainian government has so far avoided to fulfill the Minsk II agreement that would allow a reuniting of the country. An OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), which includes officers from NATO countries as well as Russia, is supervising the ceasefire and issues daily reports.
On January 26 the SMM reported:

The SMM recorded more ceasefire violations [1] in Donetsk region, including about 420 explosions, compared with 228 in the previous reporting period. More than 160 explosions were recorded around the Svitlodarsk area, with exchanges of fire also recorded around Avdiivka and Yasynuvata.
...
The Mission revisited a Ukrainian Armed Forces permanent storage site, whose location corresponded with the relevant withdrawal lines and observed that 12 tanks (T-64) and four mortars (2B9 Vasilek, 82mm) were missing, as previously noted.
...
The SMM followed up on reports of a blockade of a railway track near government-controlled Hirske. The railway leads towards the "LPR"-controlled settlements of Donetskyi and Sentianivka (formerly Frunze) (49 and 44km west of Luhansk, respectively). The Mission had observed a train travelling east through Donetskyi on 23 January. The SMM observed that the tracks had been blocked by tree trunks under a bridge on the southern edge of the settlement. About 20 unarmed men wearing camouflage clothing told the Mission that they were veterans from former volunteer battalions. The SMM observed a tent near the blockade site.

The observations on the 26th pointed to the preparation of a full attack which was launched on January 28:

The SMM recorded fewer ceasefire violations in Donetsk region between the evenings of 27 and 28 January compared with the previous reporting period (including about 330 explosions compared with about 520).[1] In the following 24 hours, however, the SMM recorded over 2,300 explosions, primarily in the Avdiivka-Yasynuvata-Donetsk airport area.

The SMM observed that the intense artillery barrage was launched north to south originating from the government held area.
The NAZI volunteer battalions from west-Ukrainian Galicia are spearheading the attack. There is ongoing fighting with intense artillery usage on several points along the ceasefire line (map). One main battle ground is the city of Avdeevka in the demilitarized zone north-west of Donetzk city.
The U.S. government propaganda site RFERL sees a "creeping offensive" initiated by the government side. Even the belligerent and anti-Russian Washington Post editors have to acknowledge that the Ukrainian government started this round. While unreasonably blaming Russia they observes:

Ukrainian commanders acknowledge that in recent weeks their forces had moved some positions forward in the no-man's land between the front lines.

During the last two years the Ukrainian army experienced a massive build up. New equipment came in from the U.S. and other NATO countries and U.S. training missions tried to teach some basic fighting tactics. But while the newly conscripted 250,000 men army looks big on paper it still lacks any coherence and will to fight for the coup government and its U.S. overlords. Only the NAZI "volunteer battalions" have some fighting spirit but they are up against people defending their immediate homes. Any large offense from the government side will thus fail.
The fight was planned and started just after the inauguration of the new U.S. president Trump. Trump has acknowledged that Crimea is part of Russia as its population is overwhelmingly Russian. He has announced to seek good relations with Moscow. He will likely eliminate sanctions against Russia.
For the Ukrainian coup government and its neo-conservative supporters this marks the end of their dreams. If it loses U.S. and NATO support the Ukraine must declare bankruptcy, the government will be kicked out and the country will, over time, move naturally back into the Russian sphere.
To prevent that Poroshenko was ordered to launch a new attack while blaming Russia. He did as his mentors told him and traveled to Berlin in the hope of German support. But such is not coming. The German government let it know that it sees through his games and has no interest in them. The government friendly daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung "leaked" (translated here) that Berlin knows that Poroshenko started the fight to influence Trump and to prevent any sanction relief for Russia. But Berlin believes that the gimmick will fail and Merkel fears that Poroshenko will end up losing another round of the war while Russia will still get the better relations it seeks.
One would hope so. There is nothing to win for western-Europe, or anyone else, in another fight with Russia.
Neither the Trump administration nor the EU has blamed any side for relaunching the conflict. That surely is not in Poroshenko's favor.
The massive buildup of U.S. and NATO troops along the Russian border as well as the renewed fighting in Ukraine are part of the imperial plan initiated under Obama to squeeze Russia into a minor global role. It is an extremely dangerous endeavor. Russian history shows that it will not allow such. Trump will hopefully reverse the Obama plans and, as far as one can currently tell, seeks to arrange friendly cooperation with Russia wherever feasible.
The current attempts in Ukraine to sabotage such rapprochement will probably not be the only ones. Some "accident" in the Baltic or "mistake" in Syria could surely be arranged by "deep state" rogue force. If such happens nether side should fall for it.

[David Guyatt]

To pull Russia into war in order to put a stop to Trump's plans to normalise relations with Russia. Pure neocon gaming as usual.

[Magda Hassan]

Hopefully the last hoorah. I hope there is no more money coming to them and they will be reduced to throwing chocolates to the Novorussians.

[Magda Hassan]

Lack of condemnation is a worry and even though Trump is signing executive orders left right and centre he has not signed any stopping arms to Saudi Arabia and others.

[Lauren Johnson]

OSCE abandons Donetsk as the bombardment of the city continues. Large columns soldiers and equipment moving to the front.

Of course, this attack is taking place under the Trump regime. So far, he has said nothing about it publicly. Look for Putin to unleash more ruthless and cunning diplomacy.

[Lauren Johnson]

So far, the ukrops have threatening an invasion and are bombing cities intensively. Even the OSCE has fled. And our new Ambassador to the UN going on like Samantha Power?

Nina 🐻 Byzantina Retweeted

Nina 🐻 Byzantina ‏@NinaByzantina 3h3 hours agoMore



Nina 🐻Byzantina Retweeted Joyce Karam
Samantha Power is gone. Welcome the new Samantha Power.

Nina 🐻Byzantina added,
Joyce Karam @Joyce_Karam
Nikki Haley 1st appearance at UNSC: Blasts Russia occupation in UkraineSanctions stayingCrimea part of Ukraine…





9 replies36 retweets40 likes
Reply
9

Retweet
36



Like
40