The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

Since the imposition of Minsk II upon the DLPR, two things have not changed: the Ukies have continued to shell cities and the mostly the DNR continues to announce how many times they have been attacked during the past 24 hours. Today's announcement is that 800 shells hit Donetsk and that is the heaviest since ... whenever.

Actually, I should say that the DNR voluntarily withdrew from Shirokino, just outside of Mariupol, as a gesture of goodwill. The Azov Battalion quickly occupied it.
The next piece of stunning strategy has been the announcement that the DNR would voluntarily comply with Minsk II. So I was mistaken to say nothing has changed.

And now we have the Ukies moving large forces towards the front lines and stepping up the shelling. It looks like the long expected Summer offensive is about to begin. Putin has called a meeting of their security council to discuss the shelling.

Does Russia have Plan B? I suspect the answer is "No." The Kremlin most likely will want to wait out the offensive by giving enough aid to prevent the Donbass from being overrun. Lot's of separatists and Ukrainians will die. And then Minsk III.