Coup Underway in Turkey

[Peter Lemkin]

Henri J. Barkey

Henri J. Barkey is a visiting scholar in the Carnegie Middle East Program and the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor at Lehigh University.

He served as a member of the U.S. State Department Policy Planning Staff working primarily on issues related to the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean, and intelligence from 1998 to 2000. He has taught at Princeton, Columbia, the State University of New York, and the University of Pennsylvania.

Barkey has authored, co-authored, and edited five books, among them Turkey's Kurdish Question with Graham Fuller, Reluctant Neighbor: Turkey's Role in the Middle East, and most recently, European Responses to Globalization: Resistance, Adaptation and Alternatives.

His opinion editorials have appeared in Newsweek, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Daily Star, and Los Angeles Times, and he is a frequent guest on the Newshour with Jim Lehrer and NPR.

Published on: July 18, 2016
THE TURKISH COUP
The Gang That Couldn't Shoot StraightHENRI J. BARKEYThe coup failed, and Erdogan survived, but the events of July 15 left only losers in their wake.

The failure of the attempted Turkish coup portends both good and bad news for the future of Turkish democracy. The good news is that the coup failed and the Turkish body politic stood its ground. But that's about it. The bad news is that the government will try to overcompensate by accelerating the pace of constitutional changes that may make Turkey's less democratic.
The coup attempt was a half-baked idea by a conspiratorial group within the military that clearly relied on hope as much as on action in their push for regime change. The rebellious officers, who may have been motivated by rumors of a major purge of officers at an upcoming Military High Council meeting in August, assumed that other units would join once they took to the streets and skies. It was quite evident from the start that they were poorly organized; if you want to coup, the first thing you need to make sure of is precisely where the country's leadership is situated.It was clear from the beginning that they had no clue where the civilian leadership was. (However, the plotters did manage to arrest the military leadership.) Also, as in past coups they went directly to the official state television network to broadcast their message, forgetting that there are myriad news outlets that could continue to broadcast undisturbed. Worse, these officers didn't have a strong command of their own history: In the early 1960s, junior officers twice tried to overthrow the government and their fellow senior officers only to find that they had no support.Military coups, successful or unsuccessful, are severe body blows to a country's political make-up. Years later, as with wounds that never properly heal, they continue to hurt the body politic by altering everyone's behaviorfrom politicians down to ordinary citizens. All past Turkish coups have had the unintended result of ensuring that the outcome the officers least wanted would be realized. This time, too, the military personnel will end up strengthening Erdogan in the short term.However, the most important outcome of this coup is that there were only losers on the night of July 15. The military's internal weaknesses have been exposed; its top echelon missed the warning signs, and now an anti-military mob mentality has taken over in a small segment of the population.Erdogan has survived this coup attempt but does not come out unscathed. His aura of invincibility has taken a blow. He thought he had tamed the military dragon, which had overthrown four Turkish governments since 1960. He will naturally worry that this could happen again and, as a result, will calibrate his policies accordingly. This will mean that the purges in the bureaucracy, the military, and even in society will pick up pace. There is an opportunity for him to be magnanimous and acknowledge that society and the political opposition stood behind the constitutional order, thus mending fences with his political opponents. His behavior of late, however, as well as that of his closest advisors and the bulk of the Turkish press that supports him, points to this being an unlikely outcome.What does this mean for Turkey's foreign policy? Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim were quick to blame their former ally, the Pennsylvania-based cleric Fethullah Gülen, as the mastermind of the coup. Gülen, who has a vast network of followers in Turkey and abroad, is thought to have triggered the corruption charges against Erdogan, his family, and allies when tapes were leaked in 2013 backing up allegations of official misconduct. Ever since, Erdogan has tried to get Gülen extradited from the United States to be charged as a member of a terrorist organization. One expect that in coming months the calls for extradition will increase in volume and stridency. Because it is the courts, not the Executive Branch, that by and large will make the decision, we can expect U.S.-Turkish relations to take a hit.For the United States, the stakes are quite high: Turkey is a NATO ally and more. The two are cooperating to defeat the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS). They do, however, vehemently disagree on methods: Turkey stridently objects to the U.S. alliance with Syrian Kurds, so far the most effective fighting force against ISIS. The Syrian Kurds are anathema to Ankara because of their alliance with the Turkish Kurds, who are in open revolt against Turkey. We should expect the conversations between American and Turkish officials to get far more acrimonious in the months to come. Even if it's likely that the two sides will eventually find a modus vivendi, the terrorist attacks in Nice, Istanbul, and Brussels remind everyone that there is no time to waste in the fight against ISIS.The good news is that the gang that could not shoot straight failed, but the damage done and the potential for more will continue to overshadow not just Turkish domestic politics but also its relations with the outside world.
Henri J. Barkey is the Director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center. The views expressed here are his own.

Accused expert Henri J. Barkey was actually invited to Ä°stanbul by officials
27.07.2016 19:54 BÄ°RGÃœN DAÄ°LY
Henri J. Barkey had been claimed by pro-AKP news sources to be the secret service agent of CIA behind the coup attempt but it has been revealed that they had invited him to the Princes' Island themselves. A writer in Karar newspaper, Dr. Akgün, who talked to Barkey in the island on that night, said: "How could they make up these kinds of fantasies? It's really saddened us that Barkeyhas been put in this position because of his identity."
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DERVÄ°Åž CEMAL
Henri J. Barkey, who had been claimed by pro-AKP media as being a secret service agent of CIA behind the July 15 coup attempt, has been reported to have been invited to İstanbul by officials close to the current administration. News sources such as Yeni Şafak, Star, Akşam, Sabah, and Haber 7 had alleged on their frontpages for days that Barkey had fled Turkey and gone to Greece. However, it has been explained that Barkey was actually invited by a group of officials and professionals to a conference at the Princes' Islands, where Kültür University Associate ProfessorMensur Akgün, who is a Karar newspaper writer known for his affinity to the government, had also attended.
Dr. Akgün said he could not make any sense of the claims spread by certain sources and the media in support of the current government about Barkey being the name behind the foreign connection of the coup attempt.
Yes, Barkey was indeed at the Princes' Island on that night
In his statement, Akgün said the meeting at the Princes' Island had actually been held, on the first anniversary of the treaty signed for nuclear disarmament of Iran, in order to evaluate the situation in the region, adding that the claims reported after the meeting, where Wilson Center's Middle East expert Henri J. Barkey had attended, were nonsense. Akgün also explained that the meeting had been arranged previously but been postponed due to certain complications in Turkey; then, by coincidence, it was held on that night. Furthermore, Akgün added that the topic of the meeting was not on Turkey.
People went up to their rooms and watched the news about the coup attempt
Akgün shared further details, stating: "The meeting did not start on Friday evening, though it has been claimed to be so. It started in the morning on Saturday but we met there on Friday evening. Actually, we were even a little late. People dined at two separate tables, then, at around 22:00, my wife called me and said there is a coup.' I said, No' but then it was understood. So, I and, other people, too, I assume - went up to our rooms and started watching the news. We got up the next morning and held our program as planned. I started off the first session on Saturday morning; gave a speech; and, then, left there in order to write my report. Actually, we thought about cancelling the meeting but there were too many people who had come from abroad for it. So many experts from around the world were together and we were to release a report after the meeting; so, we thought it would be more appropriate to continue with the program. Of course, people were really worried. There was a coup attempt; and, the airport was attacked and shut down. They were thinking about how they were going to fly back. The participants were not only from America. There were participants from Afghanistan, as well. Actually, a very important Saudi expert was also to attend but he cancelled it at the last minute. From Turkey, Şaban Kardaş and Bayram Sinkaya were there,too.
It saddened us that Barkey was accused'
Akgün pointed out that although he was not listed in the program, Sinkaya came, with his wife who was on vacation, adding, "because, he works on Iran. The names there were those who are important in the field of Middle East. The meeting was held with these people but then we felt really saddened because of the accusations on Henri Barkey after the meeting was finished."
Akgün expressed that he has submitted an official disclaim and will file a lawsuit against those have released such reports, putting himself, the school, and the participants in a difficult situation.Akgün said he thinks someone from a news-source made the wrong connection between an article published on the newspaper and the meeting; then, the allegations spread. He added, "Supposedly, I were to threaten the government".
Of course, he will speak'
Pressing that such thing does not fit Turkey's media, Akgün expressed, "Considering the situation that Turkey is now in, we must be talking about much more serious things. Where could we go with these unreal fantasies? It was nothing but a completely technical meeting. It took place at a hotel in Princes' Islands and the doors were open. Participants sat together with all other people. What is the secret about it? Plus, the people we've held the meeting with are experts. How could they make up such fantasies? Also, Henri Barkey is an expert on the Middle East from Wilson Center. Of course, he will speak. If there had been a coup at that time, of course, people would call him up and talked to him. But what he had said does not matter to me."
He left after staying for four days
It has been proved through official records that the moderate Islam' theoretician Barkey, who often praises Gülen, had arrived in İstanbul on July 15, the day of the coup attempt and left after staying for four days. According to the records from Atatürk Airport, Barkey arrived in İstanbul at 10:24 on July 15th and departed at 04:05 on July 19th. It's been reported that Barkey stayed at the Princes' Islands during these days and held several meetings in İstanbul.
Barkey, who does have connections with CIA, talked to several people during his stay at the Princes' Islands Splendid Palace. Those names included Iran expert at International Crisis Group Ali Vaiz; Egyptian researcher Ahmet Morsy; Middle East expert at Yıldırım Beyazıt UniversityBayram Sinkaya, and Kültür University lecturer Prof. Dr. Mensur Akgün.
Who is Barkey?
Henri J. Barkey is a moderate Islam' theoretician who has personally given reference for FethullahGülen to receive green card from the USA. Having been in close connections with the Gülenists,Barkey has been often attending meetings at the organization's schools, especially in the Middle East. Originally from İzmir and born in İstanbul, Barkey speaks Turkish fluently, at the level of a native-speaker; he had previously caught attention for his statements where he said Gülen has no ties with the CIA.' Barkey is also a close friend of Graham Fuller, a former CIA agent who had also given reference for Gülen to receive a green card.
Source: http://www.birgun.net/haber-detay/darbenin-arkasindaki-isim-dedikleri-cia-ci-barkey-i-adaya-kendileri-cagirmis-121752.html