13-06-2010, 07:45 PM
I agree with all that Jan.
But, unless the existing easy to get at fields replenish themselves from abiotic channels - if they indeed are a reality - and at a rate pretty close to historic extract ion rates, then we are stuck with having to get it from deep deep and pristene places like the GOM and arctic/antarctic - with commensurate costs both monetary and environmental. If we are to keep consuming at present or higher levels that is. The plain fact is that the biggest field of them all Gharwar in Saudi has had mounting water cut problems going back a decade or more and all the industry talk I come across says they are getting worse. So that's one filed that is NOT replenishing - along with the entire continental US of course.
The big BIG problem - economically and hence geo-politically - for the oil men right now, is the disparity between the production cost of a Middle-Eastern barrel and a GOM barrel. Haven't got the precise figures to hand but it is of the order of $10 and $ 40-50. The implications of that difference when production of the expensive stuff is an absolute requirement to meet demand are enormous. Like I've said before - or hinted at anyway - I think those dynamics - long since known understood and planned for by Big Oil and its government lackies - are high among the drivers of Western geo-political policy and initiatives.
But, unless the existing easy to get at fields replenish themselves from abiotic channels - if they indeed are a reality - and at a rate pretty close to historic extract ion rates, then we are stuck with having to get it from deep deep and pristene places like the GOM and arctic/antarctic - with commensurate costs both monetary and environmental. If we are to keep consuming at present or higher levels that is. The plain fact is that the biggest field of them all Gharwar in Saudi has had mounting water cut problems going back a decade or more and all the industry talk I come across says they are getting worse. So that's one filed that is NOT replenishing - along with the entire continental US of course.
The big BIG problem - economically and hence geo-politically - for the oil men right now, is the disparity between the production cost of a Middle-Eastern barrel and a GOM barrel. Haven't got the precise figures to hand but it is of the order of $10 and $ 40-50. The implications of that difference when production of the expensive stuff is an absolute requirement to meet demand are enormous. Like I've said before - or hinted at anyway - I think those dynamics - long since known understood and planned for by Big Oil and its government lackies - are high among the drivers of Western geo-political policy and initiatives.
Peter Presland
".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn
[/SIZE][/SIZE]
".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn
[/SIZE][/SIZE]