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The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship
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America warns Iran that blocking oil route will 'not be tolerated'

Tensions mount between US and Iran as Fifth Fleet warns that any attempt to block Strait of Hormuz will elicit naval response

Paul Harris in New York
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 28 December 2011 18.35 GMT

Tensions between the United States and Iran have dangerously ratcheted up as naval officials with America's Fifth Fleet warned any attempt by Iran to close a strategically vital oil route through the Strait of Hormuz would "not be tolerated".

The news heightens a sense of growing crisis in the Persian Gulf after two days of threats by senior Iranian figures that they might shut down the important trade route in response to any future international sanctions against the country's oil exports.

"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations: any disruption will not be tolerated," US Fifth Fleet spokeswoman Lt Rebecca Rebarich told the Associated Press. She added that the US Navy was "...always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."

The Fifth Fleet is based in the tiny Gulf state of Bahrain and commands a huge flotilla of American naval might, including air craft carriers.

That US response came shortly after the head of the Iranian Navy warned that the country could easily close the Strait of Hormuz if it desired to do so.

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy for Iranian naval forces... it will be easier than drinking a glass of water," Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told the state-run Press TV channel. However, he did add that Iran currently had no plans to carry out the act.

But the war of words theoretically raises the prospect of a naval conflict in the Gulf between Iran and the United States. Sayyari's statement came just a day after Iran's vice president, Mohamed Reza Rahimi, also threatened to use force to shut the waterway and cut off a flow of oil that many see as vital for the world economy.

They also come as Iran is conducting large naval exercises in the region in what many analysts see as a show of force. The war games stretch over a large area of the Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz, and could easily bring Iranian ships and submarines into close proximity with US forces.

Iran is reacting to what it says is an unfair campaign to punish it for its domestic nuclear programme, which it claims is peaceful but which many believe is actually aimed at creating a weapon.

The US Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank which President Barack Obama has said he will sign. If that happens the new US law could hit foreign companies that deal with Iran's central bank in order to buy oil, striking a blow at a commodity that makes up about 80% of its foreign revenues and is vital for the functioning of the Iranian economy.

The oil markets are already jittery about the latest developments. As the oil price ticked up in the face of the bellicose comments Saudi officials said that they would release more oil in the event of any crisis to make up for a loss of Iranian crude. That effort seemed to help calm oil traders' fears.

The current rising tensions are also merely the latest in a series of serious spats between Iran and Western nations. Earlier this month Iran captured an unmanned US spy drone, broadcasting pictures of the downed craft that created headlines around the world and represented a major intelligence coup. In November violent crowds in Tehran stormed the British embassy and ransacked offices and residences. That led to the closure of the embassy and the expulsion of Iranian diplomats from Britain.

Iranian media has carried detailed reports of how it might act to close the Strait, deploying a mix of ships, submarines, missiles and torpedoes. Few experts believe that any Iranian force could stand up to the US military but any form of armed conflict would likely trigger a global diplomatic and economic crisis.

It would also play out against a backdrop of concerted Israeli efforts to warn against Iran's nuclear programme, which the nation believes represents a threat to its existence. Isreali military and political figures have consistently threatened that armed strikes against Iran might be needed to stop the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb.

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About a month ago [as many times before] Iran hinted they might close the Straits if America threatened Iran in any way. At this point, I think both Iran and the USA are playing a game of bluff. Closing the Straits would be economic suicide for Iran - as most of their oil too leaves via this waterway. The bluster on the US side is part of the Imperial swagger and a longtanding desire to destabilize and crush the current regime in Iran [which we are the most responsible party for creating, along with the British]. That said, any mistake or planned escalation by either side or a third party [Israel, for example] could easily escalate out of hand and create a long naval battle [months] with great losses on both sides - the threat of regional spread and even the unthinkable - use of nuclear weapons by USA, Israel and maybe even Pakistan or others. The only ones to profit from such a conflict would be those who profit from high oil prices and war, in general. Even though at this point I think everyone is bluffing, a spark could ignite that tinderbox and within hours a full blown conflict could be at hand. Now would be the time to have everyone back down - before it is too late. A small group in Iran and the USA would like the confrontation, for their own geopolitical ends. For the World, it would be total madness and a flirting with WWIII
"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws. - Mayer Rothschild
"Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience! People are obedient in the face of poverty, starvation, stupidity, war, and cruelty. Our problem is that grand thieves are running the country. That's our problem!" - Howard Zinn
"If there is no struggle there is no progress. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and never will" - Frederick Douglass
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The Straits of Hormuz seem to be warming - due to Geoplolitical Games and Brinkmanship - by Peter Lemkin - 29-12-2011, 09:17 AM

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