Wikileaks publishes Stratfor Global Intelligence files.

[Peter Lemkin]

I sense this is going to be interesting!....Stratfor [Confed Fuckhouse, sorry] and their ilk are just privatized CIA, NSA, et al. Will be interesting to see how we get our 'news' in the MSM and who pays for what 'news' and why. :popworm:While I like Assange, I feel sorry for him...now he has the corporate world against him, as well as the major powers - what chance does he and his organization have for longterm survival?! Answer: It is up to the People worldwide. Governments and Corporations have been exposed [long exposed] as unfit to be in control of anything but their own toilet habits....if that.

One picked at random, is interesting:
Re: INSIGHT-BOLIVIA-St. Dept source's take on Morales Email-ID 1142108
Date 2010-04-27 19:06:01
From burton@stratfor.com
To zucha@stratfor.com, secure@stratfor.com

Back in the day, we would have been planning his (and Chavez's)
helicopter "accident." Guess I'm getting old, I think its best to keep
these lads around for comic relief. Evo and Chevez belong in the US
Congress and could probably get elected.

Korena Zucha wrote:
> SOURCE CODE: BOL701
> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: State Dept. source in Bolivia
> PUBLICATION: if desired
> SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing
> ITEM CREDIBILITY: Still testing
> DISTRIBUTION: Secure
> SPECIAL HANDLING: None
> SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
>
> In response to Evo Morales saying 'Chicken causes baldness and
> homosexuality'--
>
> Evo says stupid things every day, but the local media here (which is
> under his thumb) protects him in their 'lack of reporting' or twisting
> it for disinformation purposes. Unfortunately for him, he was
> addressing an international audience so he could not be protected by his
> lackey media drones from the international press. For the first time,
> the world got to see firsthand what a buffoon this 4th grade educated,
> narco-trafficking, murderous thug is. He is NOT the messiah and genius
> that everyone touts him to be. His rhetoric is anti-US and
> anti-Capitalism, so he is the darling to the ultra-left and self-hating
> US citizens (Danny Glover, Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, etc.) He is
> destroying Bolivia like Chavez is destroying Venezuela. However, there
> are now chinks in his armor. His recent hypocrisy was to dispatch his
> Minister of Finance last week to the US to engage those 'evil
> capitalists' there to invest in Bolivia. And, this was only a few days
> after he lashed out (ala MO of Fidel Castro) on the evils of capitalism
> and how the US was responsible for everything bad in the world. Over
> the weekend, Evo announced his government is engaging Vietnam and North
> Korea to establish formal diplomatic relations with them, open embassies
> and exchange ambassadors in an attempt to strengthen socialist
> governments to destroy the US and capitalism. He speaks of Robert
> Mugabe as a 'dear freedom fighter' who is doing great things for
> Zimbabwe. If George W. Bush made a stupid statement like his
> genetically modified chicken (and drinking Coca Cola, consuming Alka
> Shelzer, both were made in his diatribes but omitted by the media), the
> MSM (CNN, MSBNC, et all) would beat this Bush statement to death. You
> hear nothing from them when idiots like Chavez and Evo speak. This
> media bias is the double standard the left-leaning MSM media is guilty
> of. If they were doing their job, instead of being coconspirators in
> their liberal politics, FoxNews would not be needed to balance out
> objectivity. Finally, the nomination of Evo for the Nobel Peace Prize
> was just formally accepted yesterday as a result for his "Mother Earth"
> Summit [aka, vehement anti-US, anti-Capitalism (specifically targeting
> Coca Cola), anti-UN, pro-coca (sic cocaine) and narco-trafficking
> platform that was embraced by 22,000 anti-US, left-wing anarchists in
> attendance] as a result of the recent Climate Change Summit in Cochabamba.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle, etc. - VZ302 Email-ID 202526
Date 2011-12-06 03:43:19
From friedman@att.blackberry.net
To bhalla@stratfor.com

It does check out with what I heard in caracas but that increases the
chance its gossip.

If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is difficult
to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
your handler. This is because you're position is too close to the source
and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
The justification for the op would be specific classes of information and
on gaining control the first step would be determining his access. If he
failed the test contact would be terminated.

the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to discuss
the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus on
establishing the control relationship.

So from a professional point of view this target knows your affiliation,
understands your interests and you have not established any control which
is defined as a high confidence in his obedience.

So washington is filled with gossip with people whose access is not
established.

Just laying this out so you understand the core challenge. To be effective
your goal is the person and not the subject. Otherwise its gossip which is
information that you cannot definitively confirm.

This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:30:10 -0600 (CST)
To:
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
struggle, etc. - VZ302
Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while. I've listened to
waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the twitch.) I
figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his eyes. I've gotten
much better in evaluating what info to take more seriously and what info
to disregard. The info i included below is what I would consider more
seriously and seems to check out with what we've seen elsewhere.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "George Friedman"
To: "Reva Bhalla"
Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
struggle, etc. - VZ302

The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Reva Bhalla
Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
To: George Friedman
Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
struggle, etc. - VZ302

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: watchofficer@statfor.com
Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
etc. - VZ302

SOURCE: VZ302
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
to be more skeptical on iran-related info
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
latam team sees this
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer in hormonal v.
chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
spine, ie. very serious.

Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
recent CELAC meeting. The medical team is made up of both Russian and
Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing. THe Russian team blamed the
Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
Chavez. The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
world.
(note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

Who replaces Chavez?
I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
a driver of the metro bus.) At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
pragmatic in the regime. If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble. They
can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
nervous. The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

The opposition -
Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
base is the D and E.
Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
actually seen as one of the people. The conversation between him adn the
Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
he says not yet.)

guess who has been most cooperative with us lately? The military elite.
These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
worse./ Completely unchecked. This price controls law is the government's
way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

(side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
right now.


Here is where todays emails are sorted: [URL="http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2012-02-27-00-stratfor-informants-contacts-and-partners.html"]http://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate...rtners.htm


[/URL]