31-03-2009, 10:37 AM
Peter Presland Wrote:Jan, Peter, David.
Frankly I was pretty firmly in the GATA 'The shorts will eventually be trapped' camp until reading David's 'The Secret Gold Treaty' - and that from a deep deep sceptic on all things 'official'. (Who was it said 'never believe anything until it has been officially denied? - well that's me in spades). Add to that my background in trading paper gold using well-known measures that were (and to some extent remain) solid evidence of manipulation by people with VERY deep pockets, and it's a pretty fair bet that most traders and the vast bulk of the general population with any interest in gold as an investment regard the official 147,000 MT's above ground gold as being in the ball-park so-to-speak.
The alleged vast quantities of Black Gold explain so much. It does not have to be under the control of the Banksters yet - necessarily. Just the fact of its existence and Bankster knowledge of it is quite sufficient to explain their cockyness. I now expect gold to remain a reasonable investment on any ong-term view - in the sense that its value measured against a basket of necessities will probably always hold; but waiting for a price explosion whilst accumulating offical gold looks more and more like what the Banksters both want and expect people to do - and their plans are laid accordingly.
You can see why the interest I expressed to David in my original Lounge postings was about the stratagems employed to launder large and ongoing quantities of the Black stuff - because that is the key to them maintaining rigid control over its price. Analogous to drugs and diamonds, the crooks are pretty much an indispensable tool of official policy.
Gold and other treasure that remained unrecovered in various "stashes" on the Philippines was said to be "on holiday". In other words one day it would be recovered, and having been recovered it would be irresistibly vectored along a route into the hands of those who await its return and who control the market -- so that it comes home. That was a story I heard anyway.
But I'm far from certain the bulk of black metal will ever be allowed to enter the official world. Ever. Once official figures have been published (as they repeatedly have) of the size of the world's official above ground stocks ( i.e., 147,000 MT or whatever it is today) then that size cannot ever increase over and above known annual production.
But I suspect that isn't necessary at all for the wizards to craft their magic.
Who's to say that back stuff can't remain behind the veil but be used as collateral to back paper obligations issued for various means. Nor does that mean that those paper obligations cannot themselves become collateral backing for other paper obligations for other purposes, that are - or may be - issued in the open market (or perhaps via Private Placement).
And if had a liability on one hand, and a matching asset on the other -- different in nature but the same value, and I and my creditors elected for these liabilities and assets to "retire" each other, then I would have a net zero exposure.
Wouldn't I?
Who's to say that numbered GLD bars sold into the souks of the middle east or the jewelry trade of India that are known to have been melted down and transformed into ten thousand rings and earrings, cannot magically arise, like the mythical Phoenix, and enter the world anew as old-timers? Who's to say that alleged treasure trove, modern made facsimiles of say, doubloons and pieces of eight, purportedly recovered in a Spanish galleon at the bottom of the ocean, cannot enter the market and disappear into "collectors hands" never to be seen again -- except perhaps as rings and earrings in Calcutta or Dhubai?
I dare say that an inventive mind can find a never-ending series of cunning ideas to transform black into white without anyone ever being the wiser and without the official figures ever changing one jot.
It is not for nothing, I think, that the London Bullion Market Association's in-house journal is called "The Achemist".
Peter, I would never invest in the precious metals or gemstone market, black, white or paper variants and I would certainly never use information garnered from black gold stories to reach an investment judgement either. The world of the black market is so mirrored and slippery that Torville & Dean couldn't stay upright there for long. It is a ghastly place in my experience, and I delved there in the shadows for a long time.
There is one exception to the above rule and that is the acquisition of some physical gold to hold as a widely recognized value and means of exchange in the event of future catastrophic upheavals. Late last year I took the unusual step of advising and assisting members of my family to acquire some physical metal, on the clear understanding that it be held and kept for the future to cover such a contingency. It doesn't matter to me, or to them, if the market value of said metal increases, decreases or pours itself a Pimms.
The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
Carl Jung - Aion (1951). CW 9, Part II: P.14