US/NATO War on Russia

[Paul Rigby]

To follow, the Google translation of a piece recommended by the Saker. I've reformatted the translation to make it slightly easier to read.

WHY NO RUSSIAN MILITARY INTERVENTION IN UKRAINE

22:19 yesterday
published Sukhov soldier of the Red Army [suho]

http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1516927

Level of analytical discussions in runet perfectly described the political scientist Simon URAL: "Consider that against the Ukrainian crisis set off the mind and turned into bloodthirsty hysterics only Kiev colleagues - is fundamentally wrong. Among Moscow colleagues also such an incredible amount." The purpose of this material is a departure from the hysteria and cold analysis of the situation in Ukraine.'ll start with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally important topics: Why is there no Russian military intervention?

If this text was written a few days earlier, a significant part of it would have to devote to explaining why to send troops to Ukraine - was inappropriate and just plain stupid even after the referendum. Fortunately, better than I coped with this task head resistance Slawinski, Igor Fusiliers, who in his video message very clearly described the inertia of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real action to protect their interests against the junta. Anticipating the arguments about the referendum, I hasten to say that a check mark on the ballot is certainly cool, but not much different from hipster-belolentochnyh any attempts "carry mode" Like on facebook. Because it was "Like" handle made in the bulletin are not changing. The referendum was a necessary but not sufficient action.

How the Kremlin is ready to events in Ukraine and how he improvises now? advise you to read the telegram's Wikileaks:https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html , in which it is seen that Kremlin Americans in 2008 clearly pointed out the scenarios that we see today: "Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face. " - "Experts tell us that Russia is particularly concerned that a strong division of opinion in Ukraine for joining NATO, given the fact that most of the ethnic Russian - against, can lead to serious split, with violence or in the worst case to the Civil War . In this scenario, Russia will have to choose: to intervene or not, and Russia does not want to face such a choice. "

It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that we are now in even more unpleasant but less nuanced script that something like "Plan E". To understand that the Kremlin will do next, formulate objectives: - Do not allow the entry of Ukraine into NATO. - Do not allow the establishment and stabilization in Ukraine Russophobic regime that involves denazification. - Do not allow the genocide of Russian South-East population. Ideally requires implementation of all three objectives and thus need not break the Russian economy during reorientation in Asia and at the same time prevent the Americans pull their economic end by the EU. How can realize these goals? Let us consider the simplest scenario and see what he has vulnerabilities and negative consequences: So Russian army enters Ukraine and a few days comes to Kiev, then captures all of Ukraine. "Patriots" jubilant parade on Khreschatyk, etc.. seems to have achieved all three goals, but has the following problems:

1. In the EU, where the European business elite slowly pressed to nail their politicians and descend on the brakes sanctions clearly wins the "war party" (aka "The Party of the United States", or rather "Party Pax Americana»). Against the Russian Federation and the maximum cut in real sanctions with terrifying effect primarily for the European economy, which immediately falls into a recession. But nothing to rejoice about. Against this background, the Americans easily forced signing their version The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership - trade pact, which turns the EU into an appendage of the U.S. economy. Talks about it right now and go for Americans entering Russian troops in Ukraine would be a huge gift. Sanctions against Russia destroy European business and trade barriers with the U.S. finishes him. What we have at the output: EU - as if, after the war, the United States - all in white joyfully embracing European markets on which they have not and will not be competitors, Russia - not in the best shape. Nobody seems to be that someone in this situation - the Loch, and that someone is clearly not the U.S.? By the way, the arguments about the fact that European politicians will not allow economic suicide to take into account is not necessary. European officials and is not able to, as practice shows.

2. Besides the fact that the Kremlin will service Washington, need to look at what will be Russia itself.

If Jad sanctions against Russia before the gas will be signed a mega-contract for 30 years with China, then China will be able to negotiate a price with a position of strength . In fact, from the point of blackmail (China, however, and shows, but not as clearly).
If Jad sanctions against Russia before the oil will be signed mega-contract with Iran, through which Rosneft will be able to control an additional 500,000 barrels of oil per day, Iran will be able to negotiate a price with a position of strength.
All subsequent attempts to build something up to supply just need it now imports will be very, very expensive.
If sanctions kerf before signing the agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community, imagine what trump Lukashenko and Nazarbayev will have to unscrew the hands of Putin's talks. A little more and Moscow in order to create the EurAsEC will have to pay for their oil.

3. RF will have to assume the rise of the Ukrainian economy, denazification (where to get the right amount of denatsifikatorov in dusty helmets? If anyone has forgotten, the dusty helmets on Okudzhava over the dead hero of the Civil War, it tended commissioners), to fight the Nazis Ukrainian compact groups, which will support and supply from abroad. On aggregate, it is clear that in this scenario greatly benefit the United States and China. Russia remains a deep sense of moral satisfaction, economic issues and future schiryh curse of Ukrainians who are unhappy "life under occupation." How are the key points in time our vulnerabilities:

a) Gas contract with China - May-June (May 21 signed!)
b) Oil contract with Iran - Summer (That's why the U.S. lifted the embargo, as Rosneft very tightly seated under the BP and not by Exxon Mobil. Where oil flows? In China).
c) Important! Elections to the European Parliament, which will get a lot of votes Eurosceptic allies of Russia. After the election, will be assembled Evrokommissii different composition which will be much easier to work with - May 25. Even more important! Gas contract signed with China, newly elected deputies will be more amenable to South Stream.
d) Collection of all relevant documents / permits / etc for the construction of South Stream - May. This is something that can be seen with the naked eye, but there are aspects that are very important but which is difficult to make a clear timetable:

• Transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and Gas - no potatoes, have long-term contracts that cannot alter unilaterally requires lengthy work replaced by new ones plus the change in current.
  
• Daylight quoting prices in rubles for energy (for trading in rubles) on the Russian markets - it is absolutely hellish work, though, if only because no one has anything like it really did not.
  
• Own payment system
  
• Preparation of import substitution or improvement of work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode) list can and should continue, that's what I see, and the Kremlin is much broader horizons.
  

Now add interesting initiatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which is not sitting idly by. For example, vitseministr Karasin May 6 in Doha and was met with all Qatari tip. The results, in my opinion, turned out shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the "convincing and coherent regional policy of the Russian Federation", which is very unexpected for a country that is not just a U.S. ally and the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the Middle East and a 100% supporter of the Russian Federation in Syria. But just open casket and the fact that the American dream to fill the whole world with cheap gas are for Qatar and its elite death sentence. Without ultrahigh gas prices, Qatar is not just lose hope for regional greatness and becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer interesting: "At the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating the coordination of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF)", which is the next summit (that's a coincidence!) Will be held in Qatar. Forum of Gas Exporting Countries - an organization which includes countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters, and which for a long time, but the Kremlin tried unsuccessfully to turn the gas analogue of OPEC. It is possible that now is the finest hour for potential gas cartel.

First, the three major gas exporter: Russia, Qatar, Iran have very similar interests and should be able to work on the same side in order to share and "take over the gills" and the LNG market and pipeline gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a reduced format (only the Russian Federation, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of the world's gas reserves and have significant opportunities strongly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project would be a lot of problems, he will meet opposition, no one gives a guarantee that everything will work, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively seeking opportunities for more strategic advantages in the fight against the United States. Hopefully it is now clear that the Kremlin to spend the time that he tries to win in Ukraine and why it matters.

Return to problems directly related to Ukraine and note that even the implementation of all the important foreign policy projects will not spend denazification Kiev and make so that Russian troops or rebel army Novorossia would wait with bread and salt at least in the central region. If the army Novorossia problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk, then work with a zombie regions will be very, very difficult. However, it appears that on the side of the Russian Federation will soon be on the field and Special Forces Colonel Hunger Giperok ("Hyperinflation"), which could dramatically change the balance of power. Ukrainian economy - the end.Given the disastrous spring sowing, destroyed crops of vegetables (frozen), lack of credit, problems with gas, the jump in fuel prices, we can safely say that the economy will come north pet, which will be full and fluffy.Junta money and no one will even from the IMF, which promised something about $ 17 billion (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year), is built into the contract "excuse" if Kiev does not control all the regions, the Kiev is not receive a penny. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and reduction brains schiryh Ukrainians. Russia they certainly will not like, but this is not necessary. Need to Yanukovych period they remembered as sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with low intensity civil war guarantees that Ukraine into NATO will not take for Europe "will be on the rails", and in the U.S. more or less moderate politicians will not make a move, which obviously would not lead to U.S. victory, and to retract the country into a nuclear war. Moreover, in terms of total economic collapse, miners, metallurgists and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to "ride all in the hut on the edge "will no longer be such a possibility. They will have to participate in one form or another, in the political and economic problems of New Russia. Likely have to participate in arms.

Simultaneously, they have the junta. Poroshenko Customized European Union, will have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. In this direction already Poroshenko will push the new European Commission, which will need peace in the east and stable gas transit. In the same direction Poroshenko will push social upheavals caused by hunger and Colonel hypertangent saboteur. All these factors, in the amount of open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something appropriate interests of the Russian Federation. It is trying to avoid this scenario States and because of it they have serious reasons to rush to translate the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and massive bloodshed. If you add up the time that is needed for Hunger Action and time required to solve problems in terms of foreign policy establishing work with China, Iran, untether the dollar, import substitution, etc. (very roughly) can come to the conclusion that you need somewhere 5-9 months (the one in December, which Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions Ukrainian and other issues maximum advantage of Russia. During this period, you must provide at least the preservation of Ukraine's civil war (ie support the DNI, LC, but Kiev too fast to take it is not necessary in order not to create unnecessary problems currently), and ideally combined with the prolonged civil war and viscous negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like 2 +4 format, ie Poroshenko Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA.

Final touch. In recent months, the U.S. has slowed down the work of his printing press, reducing the "pump-priming" (especially simplifies the formulation) from 85 to 55 billion dollars a month. Very many expect (eg http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/2...8920140427) , that the machine will turn off completely by the end of this year. Again the same in December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, though the main international currency, but print it endlessly - it is impossible. According to various estimates, the United States is almost entirely used "resource strength" of the dollar, which allowed the naughty with the machine. Moreover, the side and the inevitable effect of such tricks is understating rates on U.S. bonds, on the one hand helps Washington to pay less for the debts but on the other hand, actually choking the entire U.S. pension and insurance system that is built on the expectation of very different returns from their portfolios bonds. Roughly speaking, the end of the year, the U.S. will have a choice between to blast their social system in order to print on, or greatly reduce their appetites in order to preserve any chance of stabilizing at home. Judging by the reduction in the amount of dollars are thrown in, Washington decided that preventing explosion at - important foreign policy ambitions.
Now folded puzzle finally obtain predictions: -

• America will try by all means to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine, in order to weaken Russia and put under himself the whole European market before the need to shut down its printing press.
  
• The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute to the chronic phase - civil war plus sluggish negotiations amid the economic collapse of Ukraine.

At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time to create favorable conditions for the transition to the sharp confrontation with the United States - from the dollar otvyazka work with China, Iran, Qatar, creating EEC etc. - Complete end to the crisis - in December 2014, possibly earlier if U.S. stops trying to exacerbation. - And if you did not stop? - Then ... a big war ... a war for resources, because shale "boom" was an ordinary bubble. On this subject in detail in the article by William Engdahl "Washington shale boom - bust". Original Washington's Shale Boom Going Bust http://journal-neo.org/2014/05/12/washin...oing-bust/