18-08-2009, 01:46 PM
MEXICO SECURITY MEMO: AUG. 17, 2009 (not classified)
Mexican Drug Cartel Violence in the United States
Police in El Paso, Texas, announced Aug. 11 that they had arrested three suspects in the May 15 shooting death of Jose Daniel Gonzalez Galeana, a Juarez cartel lieutenant that had been acting as an informant for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. Gonzalez was shot multiple times outside his home in an upscale El Paso neighborhood. Among the suspects was an 18-year-old U.S. Army soldier stationed at Fort Bliss, who the other suspects said had been hired by one of the leaders of the group to pull the trigger. The group's leader, Ruben Rodriguez Dorado, was also among those arrested. Rodriguez was also a member of the Juarez cartel who had been working as an informant for ICE, and he is believed to have orchestrated Gonzalez's assassination in retaliation for cooperating with law enforcement.
Separately, the district attorney's office in San Diego, announced Aug. 13 a series of indictments against 17 members of the Los Palillos kidnapping and drug trafficking gang linked to the Tijuana-based Arellano Felix Organization (AFO). The gang is accused of having committed nine murders, a series of kidnappings, and trafficking marijuana and methamphetamines from Mexico to the United States. Authorities also said that some members of Los Palillos -- who include Mexican and U.S. citizens -- are accused of firing on a police officer during a chase and dissolving dead bodies in corrosive substances in order to destroy evidence, a common means of disposing of bodies in Tijuana and elsewhere in Mexico. Police believe Los Palillos established itself in San Diego several years ago after a falling out with a faction of the AFO.
These two cases represent new but not necessarily surprising examples of the expansion of Mexican cartels into the United States. In addition to the lack of informant control and protection, the El Paso example highlights the security risks associated with Mexican cartel members increasingly moving to the United States. This case clarifies that at least in some instances, Mexican cartels continue to target their enemies, regardless of where they live. Targets living in the United States are not off limits.
The San Diego example represents a different but no less significant risk. As opposed to cartel bosses on the Mexican side of the border tasking operatives in the United States to commit killings -- which appears to have happened in El Paso -- Los Palillos appears to have been a Mexico-based drug trafficking organization that simply relocated to the United States, conducting the same type of crimes north of the border.
In both of these cases, it is important to note that the groups involved did not demonstrate a shift in targeting or tactics from the cartels' norm in the United States toward the way they have been operating in Mexico. Neither is accused of anything as provocative as, for example, ordering the murder of a police officer or kidnapping victims outside of the criminal or illegal immigrant community. This does not mean that these risks do not exist, but only that the threshold has not yet been crossed. The more that these Mexico-based groups establish themselves in the United States, however, the risks of an escalation also increase.
Rifts Within PAN Over Cartel War Strategy?
Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said Aug. 14 that the military should be pulled off the streets as soon as possible, and thatstate and local governments should begin playing a larger role in the cartel war. Fox's statement is significant because it comes amid an intensifying debate regarding the role of the Mexican military in the country's cartel war, and it makes him the first major representative of President Felipe Calderon's National Action Party (PAN) to publicly question the federal government's strategy of relying so heavily on the armed forces.
Fox did not elaborate on his comment, or specify when exactly the military should withdraw or what duties it should perform. And on the surface, his position is not too different from that of Calderon, who has said repeatedly that the military is being used only until the federal police are capable of taking over, a process that is optimistically scheduled to be completed by 2012. However, Fox's implication that the transition should happen sooner was enough to prompt a statement from the Interior Ministry affirming, "The supreme commander of the armed forces is Felipe Calderon."
Fox and Calderon have had policy disagreements in the past, but in the cartel war, Fox and the rest of PAN have generally expressed support for Calderon's strategy. STRATFOR has been watching for possible disagreements between Calderon and opposition parties following the results of the July 5 legislative elections, which could make it far more difficult for Calderon to pursue his agenda. Fox's statement ratchets up existing tensions between rival factions of the PAN, and is an indication that Calderon is facing serious policy challenges close to home. Fox's move is likely an attempt to gain the upper hand within the ranks of PAN, and how the power plays shake out will undoubtedly influence the policies of the PAN presidential candidate in 2012.
In the meantime, the critical challenge to Calderon and his war against the cartels will come not from political infighting, but instead from a measurable shift in public opinion. At the moment, Calderon's policies in the cartel war appear to have substantial public support, but should Mexicans turn against the government's effort, Calderon will come under pressure to change direction.
Click image to enlarge
Aug. 10
Mexican military forces near Culiacan, Sinaloa state, arrested two men in possession of 17 firearms, including two Barrett .50 caliber rifles.
Authorities in Tapachula, Chiapas state, arrested a man suspected of a grenade attack on a government office in July.
Aug. 11
Police in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, will no longer be able to observe traffic or people from parked patrol cars, based on a city ordinance that took effect Aug. 11. The new law was motivated by concerns that police could be conducting surveillance for drug trafficking or kidnapping organizations.
Aug. 12
A prison warden was unharmed but three of his bodyguards were killed when several persons attacked his convoy with assault rifles in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.
A group of armed men in Mazatlan, Sinaloa state, threw two fragmentation grenades into a house, killing one man.
The former police chief in Ajuchitlan del Progreso, Guerrero state, died when a group of attackers shot him several times.
Aug. 13
Mexican President Felipe Calderon met in Bogota with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who said that 86 Colombian police officers had been in Mexico during the past few months to help train Mexican police in counternarcotics operations.
Aug. 15
Police in Chalco, Mexico state, arrested eight members of La Familia Michoacana believed responsible for kidnappings and drug dealing in several nearby towns.
More than 700 Mexican customs agents were fired following indications of widespread corruption in the agency. Customs officials later said that they were being replaced with more than 1,400 new agents and the military was assisting the transition.
Authorities in Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero state, found the dismembered body of an attorney. His head, hands and feet had been placed in a cooler, with the rest of his body in several plastic bags.
Several men fired on a family from Las Cruces, New Mexico with assault rifles in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. Two children were wounded, and one man and two women -- including a pregnant woman -- were killed.
Aug. 16
A city employee in Gomez Palacio, Durango state, died when he was shot several times.
Four people died when a group of assailants opened fire on a home in Zapotitlan Tablas, Guerrero state.
The bodies of two unidentified people were found with gunshot wounds and bound at the hands and feet in Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Several mend armed with assault rifles and handguns opened fire in a bar in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state killing eight people and wounding four.
Mexican Drug Cartel Violence in the United States
Police in El Paso, Texas, announced Aug. 11 that they had arrested three suspects in the May 15 shooting death of Jose Daniel Gonzalez Galeana, a Juarez cartel lieutenant that had been acting as an informant for the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency. Gonzalez was shot multiple times outside his home in an upscale El Paso neighborhood. Among the suspects was an 18-year-old U.S. Army soldier stationed at Fort Bliss, who the other suspects said had been hired by one of the leaders of the group to pull the trigger. The group's leader, Ruben Rodriguez Dorado, was also among those arrested. Rodriguez was also a member of the Juarez cartel who had been working as an informant for ICE, and he is believed to have orchestrated Gonzalez's assassination in retaliation for cooperating with law enforcement.
Separately, the district attorney's office in San Diego, announced Aug. 13 a series of indictments against 17 members of the Los Palillos kidnapping and drug trafficking gang linked to the Tijuana-based Arellano Felix Organization (AFO). The gang is accused of having committed nine murders, a series of kidnappings, and trafficking marijuana and methamphetamines from Mexico to the United States. Authorities also said that some members of Los Palillos -- who include Mexican and U.S. citizens -- are accused of firing on a police officer during a chase and dissolving dead bodies in corrosive substances in order to destroy evidence, a common means of disposing of bodies in Tijuana and elsewhere in Mexico. Police believe Los Palillos established itself in San Diego several years ago after a falling out with a faction of the AFO.
These two cases represent new but not necessarily surprising examples of the expansion of Mexican cartels into the United States. In addition to the lack of informant control and protection, the El Paso example highlights the security risks associated with Mexican cartel members increasingly moving to the United States. This case clarifies that at least in some instances, Mexican cartels continue to target their enemies, regardless of where they live. Targets living in the United States are not off limits.
The San Diego example represents a different but no less significant risk. As opposed to cartel bosses on the Mexican side of the border tasking operatives in the United States to commit killings -- which appears to have happened in El Paso -- Los Palillos appears to have been a Mexico-based drug trafficking organization that simply relocated to the United States, conducting the same type of crimes north of the border.
In both of these cases, it is important to note that the groups involved did not demonstrate a shift in targeting or tactics from the cartels' norm in the United States toward the way they have been operating in Mexico. Neither is accused of anything as provocative as, for example, ordering the murder of a police officer or kidnapping victims outside of the criminal or illegal immigrant community. This does not mean that these risks do not exist, but only that the threshold has not yet been crossed. The more that these Mexico-based groups establish themselves in the United States, however, the risks of an escalation also increase.
Rifts Within PAN Over Cartel War Strategy?
Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said Aug. 14 that the military should be pulled off the streets as soon as possible, and thatstate and local governments should begin playing a larger role in the cartel war. Fox's statement is significant because it comes amid an intensifying debate regarding the role of the Mexican military in the country's cartel war, and it makes him the first major representative of President Felipe Calderon's National Action Party (PAN) to publicly question the federal government's strategy of relying so heavily on the armed forces.
Fox did not elaborate on his comment, or specify when exactly the military should withdraw or what duties it should perform. And on the surface, his position is not too different from that of Calderon, who has said repeatedly that the military is being used only until the federal police are capable of taking over, a process that is optimistically scheduled to be completed by 2012. However, Fox's implication that the transition should happen sooner was enough to prompt a statement from the Interior Ministry affirming, "The supreme commander of the armed forces is Felipe Calderon."
Fox and Calderon have had policy disagreements in the past, but in the cartel war, Fox and the rest of PAN have generally expressed support for Calderon's strategy. STRATFOR has been watching for possible disagreements between Calderon and opposition parties following the results of the July 5 legislative elections, which could make it far more difficult for Calderon to pursue his agenda. Fox's statement ratchets up existing tensions between rival factions of the PAN, and is an indication that Calderon is facing serious policy challenges close to home. Fox's move is likely an attempt to gain the upper hand within the ranks of PAN, and how the power plays shake out will undoubtedly influence the policies of the PAN presidential candidate in 2012.
In the meantime, the critical challenge to Calderon and his war against the cartels will come not from political infighting, but instead from a measurable shift in public opinion. At the moment, Calderon's policies in the cartel war appear to have substantial public support, but should Mexicans turn against the government's effort, Calderon will come under pressure to change direction.
Click image to enlarge
Aug. 10
Mexican military forces near Culiacan, Sinaloa state, arrested two men in possession of 17 firearms, including two Barrett .50 caliber rifles.
Authorities in Tapachula, Chiapas state, arrested a man suspected of a grenade attack on a government office in July.
Aug. 11
Police in Monterrey, Nuevo Leon state, will no longer be able to observe traffic or people from parked patrol cars, based on a city ordinance that took effect Aug. 11. The new law was motivated by concerns that police could be conducting surveillance for drug trafficking or kidnapping organizations.
Aug. 12
A prison warden was unharmed but three of his bodyguards were killed when several persons attacked his convoy with assault rifles in Chihuahua, Chihuahua state.
A group of armed men in Mazatlan, Sinaloa state, threw two fragmentation grenades into a house, killing one man.
The former police chief in Ajuchitlan del Progreso, Guerrero state, died when a group of attackers shot him several times.
Aug. 13
Mexican President Felipe Calderon met in Bogota with Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who said that 86 Colombian police officers had been in Mexico during the past few months to help train Mexican police in counternarcotics operations.
Aug. 15
Police in Chalco, Mexico state, arrested eight members of La Familia Michoacana believed responsible for kidnappings and drug dealing in several nearby towns.
More than 700 Mexican customs agents were fired following indications of widespread corruption in the agency. Customs officials later said that they were being replaced with more than 1,400 new agents and the military was assisting the transition.
Authorities in Ciudad Altamirano, Guerrero state, found the dismembered body of an attorney. His head, hands and feet had been placed in a cooler, with the rest of his body in several plastic bags.
Several men fired on a family from Las Cruces, New Mexico with assault rifles in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state. Two children were wounded, and one man and two women -- including a pregnant woman -- were killed.
Aug. 16
A city employee in Gomez Palacio, Durango state, died when he was shot several times.
Four people died when a group of assailants opened fire on a home in Zapotitlan Tablas, Guerrero state.
The bodies of two unidentified people were found with gunshot wounds and bound at the hands and feet in Acapulco, Guerrero state.
Several mend armed with assault rifles and handguns opened fire in a bar in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state killing eight people and wounding four.
"The philosophers have only interpreted the world, in various ways. The point, however, is to change it." Karl Marx
"He would, wouldn't he?" Mandy Rice-Davies. When asked in court whether she knew that Lord Astor had denied having sex with her.
“I think it would be a good idea” Ghandi, when asked about Western Civilisation.
"He would, wouldn't he?" Mandy Rice-Davies. When asked in court whether she knew that Lord Astor had denied having sex with her.
“I think it would be a good idea” Ghandi, when asked about Western Civilisation.