The Battle for Novorussiya

[Paul Rigby]

This chap's called Yuri Butusov, and it's from a Facebook posting of some length. I thought it might be interesting to hear from the CIA side at least once:

Putin's strategy and the January attack Russia in the Donbas. Analysis of the operational situation at the front
Forces of the enemy:

Overall command of all the forces of the enemy in the Donbas carries, according to "Tsenzor.Net" Army Command Armed Forces.
In the attacks are involved infantry and armor Russian mercenaries - about 60%, and local traitors - up to 40%. This mixed martial groups of infantry, armor and artillery.

The number of shock troops of mercenaries - to 6-7 battle groups, with a total of up to 10 thousand people.

Not only combat-ready gangs in the rear, which are given to feeding cities and villages, and that, too, receive weapons and military aid, have a total population of up to 20 thousand people.

Russian troops and mercenaries local gangs do not have large units to concentrate and massing of forces. Enemy units retain the character of the large partisan detachments. However, the Russian command puts serious efforts to improve training, increase discipline, cohesion, and the formation of mercenary units and tactical level company commander and battalion tactical groups of constant composition. Bandit army deployment scenario is exactly the scheme of Transnistria, Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Regular Russian army provides logistics and combat support, radio intelligence, electronic warfare, air defense, communications on operational and tactical level, the supply of military equipment, artillery reconnaissance and artillleriyskuyu support. Regular part of Russian troops - battalion tactical groups mechanized troops and special forces units, perform the functions of operating reserves, protect the rear, fire damage Ukrainian troops. Russian security services also serve as counter-intelligence, and keep order in gangs, without stopping to have to physically eliminate uncomfortable warlords - were destroyed by Alexander so poor, Yevgeny Ishchenko.

The total number of regular Russian troops in Donbass is now no more than 10 thousand people, but on the border with Ukraine focused and engaged in software, rotation, and support for at least 20 thousand.

The Russian command uses Ukraine as a military training ground for working out the plan of combat training and explore possible routes to the case of the large-scale invasion.

Part of the regular army obviously have an order to enter into contact fight only in individual cases. As a rule, Russians are noncontact war - battle formations groping our troops and then causing fire damage revealed centers of defense. A similar tactic of trying to use the troops and mercenaries.

EVALUATION tactical situation:

The purpose of the attacks of the enemy - the destruction of the combat capability of the specific Ukrainian units. I emphasize - this is a war of attrition. Therefore, the aim of the war - do not capture territories and the flag-raising - the goal of reducing the combat forces fighting capacity drop to disrupt connectivity combat formations.

Strikes are at the same time in different places, to avoid the maneuver forces and get to spend the maximum amount of reserves on all fronts. However, most of the attacks is just an imitation of action. Opponent masks so the direction of the main attacks.

Russia wants to destroy the army - to knock our military equipment, especially artillery, armored vehicles - all the things that we have not made ​​up, that provides combat stability of many poorly trained infantry units.

"Boilers" sector "D" and Ilovaiskaya show that knockout technology, transport logistics and wearing down combat-ready units leads to a rapid collapse of the front, waste and surrender territory without a fight. This is the most convenient and desirable for the opponent option.
Since the opponent is free to maneuver reserves on internal operational lines and related tasks protection extended front, he tries to defeat the parts on the front line. Large sparse combat orders and insufficient density of our troops simplifies this task.
Direction of enemy action:

1. Debaltsevskaya arc. Debaltseve - one of the key communication nodes Donbass. The enemy is making attacks on our units on both sides at the throat of the arc - in Svetlodarsk and Trinity. These are two of the most dangerous area in the front.

2. Donetsk. The enemy is trying by all means to push the front of Donetsk. The direction of impact - Marinka, Avdiyivka, Sands. Donetsk - a large supply base and a key node enemy communications. The proximity of Ukrainian troops very difficult enemy use of Donetsk, and threatening enemy bases in the city and surrounding area.

3. Bakhmutskaya track. The enemy is trying to drop our troops from the road, which is of great importance for operational maneuver forces. Monitoring is a key route for the control of the majority of positions in the area.

4. Horlovks. Horlovks - one of the most vulnerable cities in the enemy's defenses. Horlovks tightly covered flanks of the Ukrainian part. Position for the assault of the city is very convenient. Therefore Horlovks binds many enemy forces. Russian commanders also intends to bring down our units with a comfortable position.

5. Fighting in Volnovakha and Mariupol are currently only symbolic. Mariupol terrorist shelling was aimed to draw attention to Mariupol, and tie down large forces of the Ukrainian army, which keep this strategic city. Information from the resonance killing of civilians by terrorists use to conceal their operational plans. However, the enemy often changes the direction of shock, because it continues to attack only where not met strong resistance. Unfortunately, according to the "Tsenzor.Net" likelihood of terrorist attacks on cities Russian mercenaries has increased dramatically.

6. Fighting in the area Popasnaya also are symbolic, but there is an active opponent of more emphasis, and it is possible that the enemy can also take local attacks to divert our reserves from Debaltseve.

Russian troops are taking local attacks in various sectors. Concentration of striking forces of the enemy, capable of striking at the operational depth - not observed. Continuous front as such does not exist - defense and attack are focal in nature, around the towns and communications nodes. The intensity of the fighting is not high. Attacks in the case of an effective response to be suspended or held as a reconnaissance to identify fire weapons, probing weaknesses in combat formations.

The enemy concentrated shock units in various sectors of the front, which conduct proactive, trying to provide direction to favorites narrow local superiority in forces.

However, no overwhelming superiority of the enemy is not, and Ukrainian command is quite capable to repulse the attacks.
The greatest threat is in the area of ​​crisis Debaltseve.

The success of the battle depends on the maneuver forces and defeat of the enemy a district Svetlogorsk and Trinity. Debaltsevskaya arc at the moment - this is the point of all the connected Donbass front.

Assessment of the military-political situation:

The goal of the enemy: The aim remains the same - a large-scale destabilization of Ukraine, provoking a system of economic, political and social crisis. Putin wants to create the conditions for the collapse of the current state model, and to strengthen the pro-Russian influence, including in the leadership of Ukraine pro-Russian leaders. This is the exact scenario in Georgia when using the war, the economic and political blockade Putin won the election defeat of the Democratic Party and Saakashvili came to power a pro-Russian regime Ivanishvili, who accompanies the Kremlin.

According to the "Tsenzor.Net" Strategy of Russia's actions during the war in Ukraine remains unchanged and cyclical: the escalation of the war - a truce - preparing for a new phase of aggression - the beginning of local hostilities - the escalation of the war - a truce. Russia has no resources for the occupation of Ukraine. Putin wages war primarily by the departments and units of constant readiness. He can not throw a large group of Russian troops for the offensive in Ukraine, because Ukraine is required for the occupation in the mobilization of the Russian Federation, and for a big war in the Russian Federation has no available resources. For Putin, the constant low-intensity conflict - a political lever of constant exposure to the Ukraine, and internal mobilization tool due to the growth of nationalist sentiment in Russia, convenient political tool to combat the economic crisis and stagnation.

As Ukrainian society demonstrates high political stability and economic crisis still could not bring down the government, the Russian invasion of the central Ukraine will not lead to collapse, and vice versa - will make a fierce resistance. Russia is trying to avoid responsibility for the invasion - because resources include war-ravaged country, Putin is not. Russia does not provide the Donbass. And completely stopped funding Transnistria, serious disturbances because of funding cuts passed in Abkhazia.

Direct intervention will lead to a complete shutdown certainly Russia on world financial markets, and disaster for lending and import-dependent Russian economy. Putin is not ready to make such a bet. He is afraid to completely sever ties with the West. He is afraid of becoming an outcast, he wants to keep access to the western Russian elite material world.

Therefore, the onset of the broad objectives at this turn of the war should be expected.

PROBLEMS:

The main problem of Ukrainian command - is the complete lack of strategic initiatives, excessive centralization of management decisions, limiting independence at the tactical level commanders command ATO. Unfortunately, the Chief of General Staff demonstrates a lack of understanding of the situation, the lack of strategic thinking and operational planning, low-scale culture without understanding the nature of modern warfare, and the inability to analyze and draw lessons.

Reform of the army, which according to the plan approved Muzhenko Poroshenko Poltorak and further reduces the capacity of the army command, because the General Staff proposes to complicate the management structure to create what for two operational command.
Command and control system has deteriorated significantly compared with the beginning of the war - talk about it all the sources "Tsenzor.Net." Victor Muzhenko project to create additional intermediate levels of management between the staffs of operational commands and subordinate brigades - creating sectors and the Army Staff ATO proved absolutely a disaster. As a result, all the staffs are understaffed, and the sector headquarters exercising operational command staffed weakest. Besides Muzhenko completely confuse management that is constantly subject to separate parts and even personally unit itself. Coordination and interaction forces do not improve, but on the contrary - are worse. That is the main reason for the defeat in Donetsk airport and at the checkpoint in the Red partisan who Muzhenko and command ATO cynically tried to hide.

Supreme Commander Poroshenko covers Muzhenko and saves him from liability. This is our main disadvantage.

The General Staff is not engaged in the formation of permanent readiness units. As in the beginning of the war fighting are separate battalion tactical groups from the teams. Complete audio Brigade General Staff at the front can not send because they do not purposefully engaged in manning. As a result of enemy action of the major parts, and Ukrainian command can quickly focus harmonious connection to achieve superiority in forces and achieve quality advantages.

Level of training is quite primitive. There is no training center, which would provide the learning process of the whole team at the Soviet "SCHOOL".

Despite the fact that we have two huge largest intelligence, vast in number secret service - the SBU, and have for exploration State Border Service and the Interior Ministry, has a very strong support and a large number of information sources is still not there is an effective intelligence system. Actions tens of thousands of security officers with a multi-billion dollar budgets remain fragmented, and do not represent a complete picture, do not allow to take control of every village and every street. Coordination of intelligence is completely absent.
Positive changes:

Ukrainian army has turned into an armed Maidan. In the absence of competent management of each military unit live their lives. The key figures in the Ukrainian Army and the National Guard are the company and battalion commanders. On their personal qualities depends entirely on the course of military operations in a specific sector of the front. Where the commander of initiative and independent, there is an inadequate command can not be put to effective combat missions and combat training. Where there is a good commander - level of combat readiness units conditional and depends on various factors.

But it is important to note - and in the army, and the National Guard and security services among private, junior and middle officers gradually vykristallizirovalas very competent and literate cohort of soldiers and commanders, and their number is slowly growing. The Ukrainian armed forces there is the true backbone of the able-bodied.

If the Ukrainian political elite unite to reform the army and the National Guard, and the task of developing a military doctrine, strategy and tactics of war, recruitment and training, weapons and logistics are fully credentialed professionals and command positions will be filled by the criterion of competence - that now Ukraine have someone to lean on.

FORECAST:

Reflection of enemy attacks in the main sectors will lead to rapid decay of the next phase of the war, and repeat the cycle. Putin again allow the plant itself to the negotiating table and again utter meaningless words to him about the world. Again, for some time, the war fades out. But not for long. Winter - not the most convenient place for the operation of the bare steppe. Keep a good overview of a large detection range and shooting.

How many times predicted "Tsenzor.Net", the most convenient time for action of the enemy - this spring, starting from the second half of April, when there will be "brilliant green." When will the foliage opponent again have the opportunity to use the tactics of infiltration of small groups and short fire raids to attack chained passive standing at checkpoints Ukrainian units.

The next and far more active phase of the actions of the enemy will be in the spring. And Ukraine has to make an effort to change the nature of warfare, and the reforms of the army, which could dramatically improve combat effectiveness and quality control.

Putin did not go to the world, until we become strong enough. It is not about what we need to destroy all Russian troops - Putin will leave, even if his troops suffer quite serious losses. We learn to fight, but we need to learn how to win.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/p...6308036666