The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

Here is a portion of Cassad's SITREP for 1/28. It is long, and I am putting up the summary. Full report here.

Overall, the situation on the fronts is currently moderately favorable for us: the successes in the area of the Debalcevo pocket generally outweigh the junta successes in stopping our offensive in the area of the Bakhmutka road and the airport, which it couldn't recapture in the end. The battle runs on counter courses, both sides are trying to make progress. The ongoing fighting once again shows that the sides defend better than attack. It is unlikely that we'll see ideal geometry of the Debalcevo pocket instead of a rapid encirclement operation, like it was under Ilovaysk, we see a protracted and bloody chiping away at the enemy defense from the north-east of Debalcevo and Svetlodarsk. The progress is difficult, but there is progress, and the enemy is bending despite its resilience and the deployment of reserves. In essence, the battle for the Debalcevo pocket culminates the NAF offensive that started after the victory in the fighting for the airport. We will be able to assess the overall success of the January offensive of the NAF by its results.

As before, artillery remains the main damage factor. With respect to infantry, our forces compensate a certain advantage of the enemy by high morale.
Periodic interruptions in the supply of ammunition and mediocre cooperation of the infantry with tanks and artillery must be noted among the drawbacks on our side (the militia became an army just a short time ago and the growing pains are present). On the side of the junta one must note mediocre resilience of the infantry recruited from conscripts (after a major push they often simply flee), the lamentable quality of staff work from brigade and above, and also the action under the conditions of disloyal population. Overall, both sides still have a number of structural weaknesses, which noticeably decrease the effectiveness of actions of fighting detachments.

Also the fighting showed the futility of hopes for a rapid disintegration of the AFU front line and of the triumphant fantasies of how the NAF will go and immediately take Debalcevo, Avdeyevka, and Mariupol. The enemy, benefitting from the numerical superiority and being in defense, repelled our attacks more or less successfully on the majority of locations and inflicted quite comparable losses. Thus, as before, I forewarn against underestimating the military of the junta this is not the same army that was routed in the summer. So, the NAF are currently acting within the confines of what is possible. The "north wind" reserves are not engaged directly at this moment, although the logistical and the informational/reconnaisance support is provided. The question here is not a military one but rather a political one and the engagement of these reserves may depend more on the international situation around Novorossia and the degree of the escalation of the relations between the USA and the Russian Federation.