The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

Col Cassad on the significance of Kolomoisky's take down (machine translation)

1. Care Kolomoiskiy as governor of Dnipropetrovsk region will mean a reconfiguration of political and economic fields in South-Eastern Ukraine. In place of the main zhYdobanderovtsu is Reznichenko man out of the cage Poroshenko, who earlier in the feeding has been given to Zaporizhia region. Some mistakenly believed that the cause of the conflict in energy assets, but first and foremost, is to establish political control over areas of the South-East, which previously unchallenged rules Kolomoysky.Starting an open attack on the mini-empire Kolomoisky, the junta centralizes power, eliminating the main parallel center of political and military solutions. All this got permission from Washington, and that led to a quick capitulation Kolomoiskiy. This whole story shows how may vary by clicking the Ukrainian domestic political situation and how far from simple Ukrainian definition of their own destiny, and how even the ghouls from the leadership of the junta over her no control.

2. Some mistakenly believe that there is a certain Kolomoiskiy cunning plan, that he is now gone, and then as a pop up like jump ... In fact. anywhere he did not jump, after his resignation and the resignation of Korban (he now also gone), Kolomoisky lost the opportunities he gave incorporation into the state apparatus. If the earlier governors, which he set in the South-East went to pay homage to Dnepropetrovsk to Kolomoisky, now they will go to pay homage to Kiev to Poroshenko. In the birthplace of the former owner of the Southeast sits protege chief of staff Poroshenko, Mace in Odessa before retirement Kolomoiskiy hurried away visiting gangsters from the city, but that did not prevent the city from the next showdown. Against this background, address Kolomoiskiy sounded very specific threats, a much more significant than the pathetic attempts to collect signatures for the resignation Nalivaychenko or threaten Maidan. Actually the essence of these threats is simple - Kolomoysky abandoning political power must renounce power, surrendering to obey him and punitive perezamknut them on centralized structures of the SBU and the MVD. Gangster nature of these groups will not change, but they should not submit Kolomoisky and Avakov, Nalivaychenko Poroshenko. Accordingly, in the case of the implementation of this scheme (and I think it will be implemented), Kolomoisky will be just the rich and powerful man, but deprived of the opportunity to oppose Poroshenko in line with force policy.

3. Whether to leave Kolomoisky "his delight" in state assets will depend on the conditions under which lies the surrender. Possible that the Kolomoiskiy can maintain control over the "Ukrnafta" in exchange for the transfer of complaisance and punitive without noise and dust to other owners. Although given the peculiarities of Ukrainian politics, Kolomoiskiy rather try to tear completely, remembering him all his previous sins, the benefit of the enemies of the Ukraine Kolomoysky amassed a lot. The group itself "Private" probably unlikely to be falling apart, because it is fraught with the fall of the already weakened "Privat-Bank", but its impact is likely to limit as much as possible, trying to make Kolomoiskiy just "another oligarch no complaints." Of course, where Kolomoysky can be resisted, in order to prevent the complete collapse of his empire, but it will be exactly what arergarndye fights when the main battle has already been lost.

4. This story obviously strengthen the power of Poroshenko, but on a limited scale, since Avakov, Yatsenyuk and Nalivaychenko are currently only situational allies in the fight against Poroshenko Kolomoiskiy and that their presence is ensured not influence very Poroshenko, and "good will" of Washington, made a clear bet on Poroshenko and Kolomoisky hinted that we should not argue with the real owners of Ukraine. Hence the absence of rebellion, Maidan and trips to Kiev, as this would mean a direct action against Washington that it would be fun, given the fact that the assets Kolomoiskiy are in the West. Kolomoysky course moron, but not that much. So it's easier to give up part than to lose everything. Whereupon at all high-profile threats to Kiev today Kolomoysky and Korban casually handed power.

5. Strengthening the central government in Kiev will mean that the control processes in the South East will rise and there instead of willful Kolomoisky and his henchmen, will sit on the whole obedient Gauleiters conducting basic line of the Kiev junta. Just part of the guaranteed gray business of trafficking across the front line, will depart to the new owners of areas (this is especially true of semi-legal and illegal trading schemes coal). Punitive battalions will be forced to reassign a centralized structure - or the Ministry of Interior or the Security Service ("pravoseki" is likely to remain under Nalivaychenko, Yarosh of course no one now to the General Staff is not empty) with over operational command of the real sector. It should also be expected to reduce pressure on the General Staff and Muzhenko, information attack which sponsored Kolomoysky. In addition, after the fall of Kolomoiskiy, will begin the traditional flow of his former comrades in the camp of the victors. Of course, Kolomoysky if not completely destroyed, save a part of political influence in the form of purchased deputies in Parliament, but it will be more common lobby group, rather than a tool of struggle for power. For Novorossia drop Kolomoiskiy and centralization of command of the destroyer battalions would mean that no longer will write off going to the machinations of war Kolomoisky and "uncontrolled battalions." For all is now responsible "partner Peter." On the other hand, centralization of management in Ukraine is likely to serve the purposes of internal mobilization of the junta in the face of the next phase of the war. For Novorossia in fact, little has changed, as before its future will depend on the outcome of a military confrontation with the APU. Kolomoiskiy pity for us? Obviously not. On a par with Turchinov and Poroshenko, Kolomoysky is one of the most mess blood tucked junta, which has done much to civil war followed the bloodiest scenario. Fierce war is largely a consequence it Kolomoiskiy activities that led to the Odessa Katyn, after which all the bridges were already burned. In principle, I do not lose hope that sooner or later justice will overtake Kolomoisky, as well as other leaders of the coup that ended the civil war.