14-06-2010, 08:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 14-06-2010, 12:19 PM by Peter Presland.)
I know I said I agreed with all Jan said above; but a caveat:
If - and I accept the major implications of this one big if - IF oil is indeed a finite resource and abiotic replenishment, per the main Russia scientific hypothesis turns out to be false, then 'Peak Oil is NOT a scientific hypothesis at all. It is a relatively straightforward mathematical equation. The equation has escalating demand/consumption on one side, balanced by the sum of the gaussian bell-shaped production rate curves (that have been applicable to EVERY oil-producing country, region and field to date), plus the rate of new discoveries. And it doesn't just apply to oil either, but to every finite resource where demand increases to consume available supply - Bacteria in a nutrient-rich Petri dish spring forcefully to mind with humanity the bacteria and planet earth the dish.
I started out looking hard at peak oil maybe 10 years ago - an original member of the Irish ASPO no less - when the whole thing was simply laughed at - when taken notice of at all. "We heard all this back in the early 70's and look what happened to those wackos" was the refrain back then. Matt Simmond's 'Twilight in the Desert' published in 2005 pretty much clinched the matter for me - and yes I know all about his big oil connections.
I accept that Big Oil judges its interests to be best served by muddying the waters, murdering, lying, cheating and every other big corporate trick in the book to keep the Sheeple in factional warring ignorance etc etc, but I've factored all that in to my own judgement, which is that the mathematics and the parabolic escalation of the cost of finding, developing and producing from new fields have become ever more difficult to obfuscate. The clear determination by US/UK/NATO to stake the farm on denying access to the easy stuff for anyone who doesn't see things their way is solid supporting evidence too
If abiotic oil creation were a reality, I've seen precious little persuasive evidence of it in the geo-politics of the past decade.
If - and I accept the major implications of this one big if - IF oil is indeed a finite resource and abiotic replenishment, per the main Russia scientific hypothesis turns out to be false, then 'Peak Oil is NOT a scientific hypothesis at all. It is a relatively straightforward mathematical equation. The equation has escalating demand/consumption on one side, balanced by the sum of the gaussian bell-shaped production rate curves (that have been applicable to EVERY oil-producing country, region and field to date), plus the rate of new discoveries. And it doesn't just apply to oil either, but to every finite resource where demand increases to consume available supply - Bacteria in a nutrient-rich Petri dish spring forcefully to mind with humanity the bacteria and planet earth the dish.
I started out looking hard at peak oil maybe 10 years ago - an original member of the Irish ASPO no less - when the whole thing was simply laughed at - when taken notice of at all. "We heard all this back in the early 70's and look what happened to those wackos" was the refrain back then. Matt Simmond's 'Twilight in the Desert' published in 2005 pretty much clinched the matter for me - and yes I know all about his big oil connections.
I accept that Big Oil judges its interests to be best served by muddying the waters, murdering, lying, cheating and every other big corporate trick in the book to keep the Sheeple in factional warring ignorance etc etc, but I've factored all that in to my own judgement, which is that the mathematics and the parabolic escalation of the cost of finding, developing and producing from new fields have become ever more difficult to obfuscate. The clear determination by US/UK/NATO to stake the farm on denying access to the easy stuff for anyone who doesn't see things their way is solid supporting evidence too
If abiotic oil creation were a reality, I've seen precious little persuasive evidence of it in the geo-politics of the past decade.
Peter Presland
".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn
[/SIZE][/SIZE]
".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn
[/SIZE][/SIZE]