Thousands March in Egyptian Capital Calling for President’s Ouster

[Ed Jewett]

Raising Egypt From the Dead

Well, the demonstrations/riots have spread. Regime change? Not so much. At least not yet. And maybe not at all, for quite a while. Not in Egypt nor in Morocco, nor Jordan, nor Syria, nor Algeria, nor Yemen. Heck, I like magical thinking as much as the next person, but when I see leaderless mobs composed of a thousand and one different political agendas, I don't see democracy.
Another thing I don't see is any willingness on the part of the Egyptian military to turn over control to the street. In the best case scenario the generals might try to work out some kind of power-sharing arrangement among four sets of players: themselves, the Muslim Brotherhood, a collection of some of the larger secular groups, and Egypt's economic elite. The worst case scenario I could imagine is that the generals send Mubarak packing merely to replace him with younger, more energetic officers. Regime decapitation instead of regime change. But the Egyptian government just collapsing, like in Tunisia? No, it ain't happening.

Regime continuity in one form or other has seemed and continues to seem the most likely outcome. The alternative, as I keep saying, is to organize an authentic democratic movement that represents a large majority of people, then force change through carefully planned non-violent action. But that ain't happening, either.
To think that just because lots of people are poor and oppressed you can start a Twitter revolution is to profoundly misunderstand the nature of social change. And as a heuristic exercise it's probably worth asking, after experiencing the current unrest how sympathetic will the Egyptian military be to civilian democracy building exercises tomorrow? How much more difficult might they make the achievement of real reform and how much longer, then, might they retain power?
Without the hard work of political organizing Egypt most likely will continue on its downward spiral. Eventually, indeed, the state must collapse. The result, however, won't be democracy, but anarchy.


Posted by George Kenney on February 1, 2011 5:04 AM




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Comments


You're right that the hard work of political organizing lies ahead, but a certain amount of chaos is inevitable. I doubt the embattled farmers on that rude bridge had worked out a plan for a bicameral legislature to protect slavery yet.
What I find incredibly stupid is the US government acting behind the scenes to promote some combination of Mubarak holdovers and the armed forces to insure that we end up with a government that serves US/Israeli interests. The fear-mongering in the media about the Muslim Brotherhood is clearly designed to get us ready to save Egyptian "stability".
I fail to understand why, given our obvious failed strategy in the Middle East, we can't simply sit by and let nature take its course. The UN might be able to help organize an election if the US and its allies stay well out of the picture, but what can be gained by US meddling at this point?
[One of the most difficult things to do when in government is to do nothing. g.]

Posted by: Charles D | February 1, 2011 9:33 AM


There was a moment when Mubarak didn't have to go. Then there was a moment when nothing could have enabled him to stay. Both moments passed.
It may be that his plan is to do nothing, just keep going on in the daily routine as though nothing is happening. Pictures of the new cabinet meeting, all in business uniforms, about to start the daily routine, not ordering the army to kill the protesters, collecting the garbage. Maybe Mubarak has been advised that if he does nothing (a nothing that is a doing) the protesters will get exhausted and the fire will just trail off, slowly die for lack of fuel. The thinking: If he doesn't respond, there can be no reaction to his non-response. It's a bad, snaky thought, but it's got me very worried. I thought yesterday (Monday) would be the day Mubarak left. And also the day ElBaradei made another move, instead of lapsing again into silence. I still think that with everything still shaking, one man it could still be ElBaradei could push it over the top, get rid of Mubarak and break Egypt free into newness and deliverance from bondage.

Posted by: judyjablow123.wordpress.com | February 1, 2011 11:34 AM