14-04-2016, 11:05 PM
How Russia's intervention changed the course of the Syrian Civil War
April 13, 2016 | Levantine Team, with Michael Horowitz as lead author
http://www.levantinegroup.com/#!How-Russ...6d024cdc10
The report in PDF: http://media.wix.com/ugd/7854c9_0ca38824...c3a39b.pdf
The strategic & tactical goals of the Russian intervention in Syria:
 Strategic goal: Protect naval assets in Tartus, maintain and expand Russian military presence in Syria
 Push opposition forces out of the Latakia Province
 Expand current military assets in Syria; reduce redeployment time for possible future operations
? Strategic goal: Ensure the viability of the Syrian regime; prevent the replacement of a strategic ally by a pro-Western/US government
 Restore the regime's strategic depth in northwestern Syria
 Shift the diplomatic dynamic to prepare for a more favorable outcome for the Assad regime
 Weaken and divide Western-backed opposition forces: Sever ties between the various groups, as well as those between some of these groups and their foreign supporters
 Strategic goal: Solidify current alliances; act as a deterrent for any future attempts to forcibly disrupt Russia's key alliances by demonstrating Russia's projection capabilities and overall heightened military
readiness
 Increase overall battle-readiness: Decrease the time between the deployment phase and first military operations
 Use multiple strategic military assets to showcase Russia's far-reach
 Appear as a dependable and hence valuable ally
 Maximize the effect of a tight-knit force while limiting the timeframe of the main operation and the risk of getting bogged down in a foreign country
April 13, 2016 | Levantine Team, with Michael Horowitz as lead author
http://www.levantinegroup.com/#!How-Russ...6d024cdc10
The report in PDF: http://media.wix.com/ugd/7854c9_0ca38824...c3a39b.pdf
The strategic & tactical goals of the Russian intervention in Syria:
 Strategic goal: Protect naval assets in Tartus, maintain and expand Russian military presence in Syria
 Push opposition forces out of the Latakia Province
 Expand current military assets in Syria; reduce redeployment time for possible future operations
? Strategic goal: Ensure the viability of the Syrian regime; prevent the replacement of a strategic ally by a pro-Western/US government
 Restore the regime's strategic depth in northwestern Syria
 Shift the diplomatic dynamic to prepare for a more favorable outcome for the Assad regime
 Weaken and divide Western-backed opposition forces: Sever ties between the various groups, as well as those between some of these groups and their foreign supporters
 Strategic goal: Solidify current alliances; act as a deterrent for any future attempts to forcibly disrupt Russia's key alliances by demonstrating Russia's projection capabilities and overall heightened military
readiness
 Increase overall battle-readiness: Decrease the time between the deployment phase and first military operations
 Use multiple strategic military assets to showcase Russia's far-reach
 Appear as a dependable and hence valuable ally
 Maximize the effect of a tight-knit force while limiting the timeframe of the main operation and the risk of getting bogged down in a foreign country
Quote:Without question, Russia's intervention in Syria changed the dynamic of the country's civil war. It boosted Assad's position from a probable loss to more of a stalemate, with the potential for the conflict to turn in his favor. This report gauges how by what means and to what extent the Russian intervention changed the course of the Syrian civil war. It aims to address yet unanswered questions, such as: Are the gains made sustainable or do they need to be consolidated? Will the Russian "withdrawal" actually manifest in a reduction of operations over the coming months?
The information, data and maps are almost exclusively drawn from AssetSource's daily coverage of Syria. Since the beginning of the Russian intervention, AssetSource expanded the scope of its reporting to include play-by-play coverage of Syria. Every day, Levantine Group analysts track and compile data on the Syrian civil war, from strategic shifts to more tactical incidents. Some of these reports are available on our website: http://www.levantinegroup.com/#!levantine-blog/ch2w.
"There are three sorts of conspiracy: by the people who complain, by the people who write, by the people who take action. There is nothing to fear from the first group, the two others are more dangerous; but the police have to be part of all three,"
Joseph Fouche
Joseph Fouche