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NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?
#11
Peter Presland Wrote:Jan, Peter, David.

Frankly I was pretty firmly in the GATA 'The shorts will eventually be trapped' camp until reading David's 'The Secret Gold Treaty' - and that from a deep deep sceptic on all things 'official'. (Who was it said 'never believe anything until it has been officially denied? - well that's me in spades). Add to that my background in trading paper gold using well-known measures that were (and to some extent remain) solid evidence of manipulation by people with VERY deep pockets, and it's a pretty fair bet that most traders and the vast bulk of the general population with any interest in gold as an investment regard the official 147,000 MT's above ground gold as being in the ball-park so-to-speak.

The alleged vast quantities of Black Gold explain so much. It does not have to be under the control of the Banksters yet - necessarily. Just the fact of its existence and Bankster knowledge of it is quite sufficient to explain their cockyness. I now expect gold to remain a reasonable investment on any ong-term view - in the sense that its value measured against a basket of necessities will probably always hold; but waiting for a price explosion whilst accumulating offical gold looks more and more like what the Banksters both want and expect people to do - and their plans are laid accordingly.

You can see why the interest I expressed to David in my original Lounge postings was about the stratagems employed to launder large and ongoing quantities of the Black stuff - because that is the key to them maintaining rigid control over its price. Analogous to drugs and diamonds, the crooks are pretty much an indispensable tool of official policy.

What I NEVER understood before - and less than zero NOW - is how anyone with sense would think they 'owned' gold when they only have a paper [and now electronic trace] that they do own it. Whatever game the Deep Black Gold Holders are going to do; when the move comes, those with paper gold will have only paper when the company/bank/whatever they got it from and is 'holding' their gold goes belly-up; those with physical posession of real gold at least have something to trade with other un-deep and small-time traders. Paper gold seems to have always been a scam or disaster in waiting.
"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws. - Mayer Rothschild
"Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience! People are obedient in the face of poverty, starvation, stupidity, war, and cruelty. Our problem is that grand thieves are running the country. That's our problem!" - Howard Zinn
"If there is no struggle there is no progress. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and never will" - Frederick Douglass
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#12
Peter Presland Wrote:Jan, Peter, David.

Frankly I was pretty firmly in the GATA 'The shorts will eventually be trapped' camp until reading David's 'The Secret Gold Treaty' - and that from a deep deep sceptic on all things 'official'. (Who was it said 'never believe anything until it has been officially denied? - well that's me in spades). Add to that my background in trading paper gold using well-known measures that were (and to some extent remain) solid evidence of manipulation by people with VERY deep pockets, and it's a pretty fair bet that most traders and the vast bulk of the general population with any interest in gold as an investment regard the official 147,000 MT's above ground gold as being in the ball-park so-to-speak.

The alleged vast quantities of Black Gold explain so much. It does not have to be under the control of the Banksters yet - necessarily. Just the fact of its existence and Bankster knowledge of it is quite sufficient to explain their cockyness. I now expect gold to remain a reasonable investment on any ong-term view - in the sense that its value measured against a basket of necessities will probably always hold; but waiting for a price explosion whilst accumulating offical gold looks more and more like what the Banksters both want and expect people to do - and their plans are laid accordingly.

You can see why the interest I expressed to David in my original Lounge postings was about the stratagems employed to launder large and ongoing quantities of the Black stuff - because that is the key to them maintaining rigid control over its price. Analogous to drugs and diamonds, the crooks are pretty much an indispensable tool of official policy.

Gold and other treasure that remained unrecovered in various "stashes" on the Philippines was said to be "on holiday". In other words one day it would be recovered, and having been recovered it would be irresistibly vectored along a route into the hands of those who await its return and who control the market -- so that it comes home. That was a story I heard anyway.

But I'm far from certain the bulk of black metal will ever be allowed to enter the official world. Ever. Once official figures have been published (as they repeatedly have) of the size of the world's official above ground stocks ( i.e., 147,000 MT or whatever it is today) then that size cannot ever increase over and above known annual production.

But I suspect that isn't necessary at all for the wizards to craft their magic.

Who's to say that back stuff can't remain behind the veil but be used as collateral to back paper obligations issued for various means. Nor does that mean that those paper obligations cannot themselves become collateral backing for other paper obligations for other purposes, that are - or may be - issued in the open market (or perhaps via Private Placement).

And if had a liability on one hand, and a matching asset on the other -- different in nature but the same value, and I and my creditors elected for these liabilities and assets to "retire" each other, then I would have a net zero exposure.

Wouldn't I?

Who's to say that numbered GLD bars sold into the souks of the middle east or the jewelry trade of India that are known to have been melted down and transformed into ten thousand rings and earrings, cannot magically arise, like the mythical Phoenix, and enter the world anew as old-timers? Who's to say that alleged treasure trove, modern made facsimiles of say, doubloons and pieces of eight, purportedly recovered in a Spanish galleon at the bottom of the ocean, cannot enter the market and disappear into "collectors hands" never to be seen again -- except perhaps as rings and earrings in Calcutta or Dhubai?

I dare say that an inventive mind can find a never-ending series of cunning ideas to transform black into white without anyone ever being the wiser and without the official figures ever changing one jot.

It is not for nothing, I think, that the London Bullion Market Association's in-house journal is called "The Achemist".

Peter, I would never invest in the precious metals or gemstone market, black, white or paper variants and I would certainly never use information garnered from black gold stories to reach an investment judgement either. The world of the black market is so mirrored and slippery that Torville & Dean couldn't stay upright there for long. It is a ghastly place in my experience, and I delved there in the shadows for a long time.

There is one exception to the above rule and that is the acquisition of some physical gold to hold as a widely recognized value and means of exchange in the event of future catastrophic upheavals. Late last year I took the unusual step of advising and assisting members of my family to acquire some physical metal, on the clear understanding that it be held and kept for the future to cover such a contingency. It doesn't matter to me, or to them, if the market value of said metal increases, decreases or pours itself a Pimms.
The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
Carl Jung - Aion (1951). CW 9, Part II: P.14
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#13
Peter

Quote:....those with paper gold will have only paper
You are quite right about paper; And it applies to paper anything really - including (even especially) bank notes. They are promises pure and simple and have the same credibility and prospects of being honoured as whoever is making the promise. That in fact is the nub of the matter.

There are many different motives for 'holding paper'. For the deep players, paper is really a laundry and a means to stay in control of price; to game the fine-print of whatever contract it happens to be; to cause price to move in counter-intuitive ways and thus fleece the casual player with the hubris to think he knows how it all works, or niaive enough to take the financial entertainers on Bloomberg, CNBC et al seriously. For others it is a way to trade short term - for example, 'market-making' is simply a trading methodology aimed at profiting from the spread between offer and bid and it matters not one wit what the so-called 'underlying' commodity or index or whatever actually is. For others - and this is the extent of my own involvement - it is a question of slip-streaming the deep players, or rather trying to. I have a rule - very seldom broken - that I never hold a trading position overnight, which is an indication of my faith in the predictability or value of ANYTHING as an investment.

I realise I can be accused of being a knowing accessory to a thoroughly corrupt system. In fact I hold my hand up. But I don't make the rules and a living has to be earned - the same old cop-out excuses eh?

The thing is, if I ever came into possession of demonstrably provable information with the potential to seriously compromise 'the system', I like to think I would have very little hesitation about using it for precisely that purpose - having carefully considered the implications for the safety of my family etc of course - which again is probably a large part of why the system IS so corrupt in the first place. It's just too damned dangerous to become a serious and credible threat/irritant to it.
Peter Presland

".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn

[/SIZE][/SIZE]
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#14
Peter Presland Wrote:Peter

Quote:....those with paper gold will have only paper
You are quite right about paper; And it applies to paper anything really - including (even especially) bank notes. They are promises pure and simple and have the same credibility and prospects of being honoured as whoever is making the promise. That in fact is the nub of the matter.

Any English banknote bears the following words, written top and centre of the note:

Bank of England
I promise to pay the bearer the sum of...

Anyone holding a £20 note can, by appointment, visit the head office of the Bank of England and exchange that £20 note for smaller notes - say 2 x £10 or coins or a mixture of both. The same applies to all other issued notes.

That is the sum value of that meaningless promise.
The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
Carl Jung - Aion (1951). CW 9, Part II: P.14
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#15
David Guyatt Wrote:
Peter Presland Wrote:Peter

Quote:....those with paper gold will have only paper
You are quite right about paper; And it applies to paper anything really - including (even especially) bank notes. They are promises pure and simple and have the same credibility and prospects of being honoured as whoever is making the promise. That in fact is the nub of the matter.

Any English banknote bears the following words, written top and centre of the note:

Bank of England
I promise to pay the bearer the sum of...

Anyone holding a £20 note can, by appointment, visit the head office of the Bank of England and exchange that £20 note for smaller notes - say 2 x £10 or coins or a mixture of both. The same applies to all other issued notes.

That is the sum value of that meaningless promise.

Wasn't it in most countries originally a promise to pay in gold? It was in the US until not that long ago. Whoever was behind that change really knew what they were doing and that the rest of us wouldn't catch on. One could, even with the old promise of gold' doubt if you'd get your gold, but at least it was a promise of something of some intrinsic worth. Now it is monopoly money and even as such, loosing value from nothing to less than nothing, IMO. Ameran currency is backed by the 'full faith and credit' of the Government - which is why I say going from worthless to less than....
"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws. - Mayer Rothschild
"Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience! People are obedient in the face of poverty, starvation, stupidity, war, and cruelty. Our problem is that grand thieves are running the country. That's our problem!" - Howard Zinn
"If there is no struggle there is no progress. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and never will" - Frederick Douglass
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#16
David

Your last post is a Gem if I may say so. (just can't get away from those age-old yardsticks of value can we??)

As you are no doubt beginning to divine, my interest in paper contracts is confined to the factors that influence both short-term and medium-term price trends though, the better not to get fleeced on my ultra-short-term trading activities. Those activities, when one has actually survived and profited from them over any length of time, inevitable involve developing a keen interest in the deep stuff that drives it all. I would no more consider INVESTING in gold, gold miners or ESPECIALLY the various Exchange Trade Funds than I would in the future of packaged holidays to Mars.

I do agree the prudent private long-term 'in case of total catastrophe' stash though and have helped my own family similarly. The thing is, I sense there are a LOT of people doing exactly the same thing - especially the seriously wealthy. That in turn implies a LOT of official, documented, hall-marked etc gold exiting the vaults so-to-speak and I suspect that, in addition to the black obligations/collateral scenarios you paint, serious amounts of it are being systematically laundered to replenish otherwise empying vaults. I am very curious to discover mechanisms employed - and 'curiosity' killed the cat didn't it?
Peter Presland

".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn

[/SIZE][/SIZE]
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#17
By 'Last post' I meant the 10:37 one. They're coming thick and fast!
Peter Presland

".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn

[/SIZE][/SIZE]
Reply
#18
Peter Presland Wrote:Peter
niaive enough to take the financial entertainers on Bloomberg, CNBC et al seriously.

Those who do the jawing on TV and in the print media, etc. are IMO a very sinister front. They are the snake-oil salesmen, but not those who set the snake-oil price nor get the great share of the profits from snake-oil. By the way, what is today's quote on snake-oil? Peter, if it is not a secret, why do humans have to monitor the programs you and others monitor. Couldn't the computers just do the buy/sells etc. themselves. You just a failsafe system in a system build to fail every few decades for all but the ultra-rich? We appear to be at one of those times.
"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws. - Mayer Rothschild
"Civil disobedience is not our problem. Our problem is civil obedience! People are obedient in the face of poverty, starvation, stupidity, war, and cruelty. Our problem is that grand thieves are running the country. That's our problem!" - Howard Zinn
"If there is no struggle there is no progress. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and never will" - Frederick Douglass
Reply
#19
No trade secrets so far as I am concerned Peter. I really am just a small-time operator trying to spot the lie of the land and scratch a living from it. I do use computers but have never succeeded in graduating to automated program trading. I rely on derivative and fairly complex analysis of the measures available to everyone (Open,High,Low,Close, #trades at Bid/Ask, Volume at Bid/Ask, open interest and weekly analysis of open interest and its movement by category of trader) It really is bloody boring stuff (gives me time to read and post this stuff whilst waiting though). But trade initiation and normal exit is entirely discretionary and based on the signals that such analysis is programmed to generate.

I take your point about a vast interlocking network of black-box machines with claimed (falsely in the final analysis) fail-safe circuit-breakers for want of a better analogy. But, the bottom line for ANY trading activity is that, if there is no bid, then price collapses to zero - or to a level that attracts a bid. That is the fundamental issue at stake with all the TARP, TALF Toxic 'asset' stuff clogging up the entire system right now. It needs marking to market but TPTB are absolutely determined that it won't be - and personally speaking my experience has been that betting against them can seriously damage your wealth.

Which is not to say I believe the global financial system can or will be salvaged in a recognisable form; just that getting the timing right is a real pig.
Peter Presland

".....there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims"
Guido Preparata. Preface to 'Conjuring Hitler'[size=12][size=12]
"Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"
Claud Cockburn

[/SIZE][/SIZE]
Reply
#20
Peter Presland Wrote:David

Your last post is a Gem if I may say so. (just can't get away from those age-old yardsticks of value can we??)

As you are no doubt beginning to divine, my interest in paper contracts is confined to the factors that influence both short-term and medium-term price trends though, the better not to get fleeced on my ultra-short-term trading activities. Those activities, when one has actually survived and profited from them over any length of time, inevitable involve developing a keen interest in the deep stuff that drives it all. I would no more consider INVESTING in gold, gold miners or ESPECIALLY the various Exchange Trade Funds than I would in the future of packaged holidays to Mars.

I do agree the prudent private long-term 'in case of total catastrophe' stash though and have helped my own family similarly. The thing is, I sense there are a LOT of people doing exactly the same thing - especially the seriously wealthy. That in turn implies a LOT of official, documented, hall-marked etc gold exiting the vaults so-to-speak and I suspect that, in addition to the black obligations/collateral scenarios you paint, serious amounts of it are being systematically laundered to replenish otherwise empying vaults. I am very curious to discover mechanisms employed - and 'curiosity' killed the cat didn't it?

Hi Peter.

Does it really imply lots of official, documented,hall-marked do you think? Especially if that is the one thing that the powers that be wish to avoid doing?

Lots of people could be buying coins it seems to me.

The interesting thing about coins is that they do not have serial numbers or other identifying marks and their designs are usually rudimentary and, therefore, are easy to emulate, which is why, I suppose, one former CIA/ONI officer remarked many years ago now that quantities of Marcos gold were finding their way into Krugerrands. But of course, there are so many different coins out there these days that it makes one almost dizzy trying to keep track of them all. Big Grin

Then, of course, you have various smelting and refining outfits - say in the hills of Ticino - but numerous other locations too - that may not necessarily wish to conform to Good London Delivery? Or they may wish to conform to GLD? It might depend on the client? Or the fee? Or both?

Does a drug running Chinaman necessarily care if his stash of gold bars is GLD or not, providing that he knows he can dispose of it speedily and quietly whenever he wishes? Do the Generals of Burma care about theirs being GLD I wonder?

Overall, the future of a packaged holiday on Mars strikes me as a more dependable liklihood...
The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
Carl Jung - Aion (1951). CW 9, Part II: P.14
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