Malaysian plane crashes on Ukraine-Russia border - live

[Albert Doyle]

A report has surfaced of a passenger found wearing his oxygen mask:




http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29548942

[David Guyatt]

Although slow and fairly turgid reading, the following is non-the-less interesting.

Analysis of the reasons for the crash of flight MH17

by Ivan A. Andrievskii

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | MOSCOW (RUSSIA) | 27 SEPTEMBER 2014 РУССКИЙ PORTUGUÊS DEUTSCH

1. The event

Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 (Amsterdam Kuala-Lumpur) departed from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol at 10:14 UTC (14:14 Moscow Time) and was scheduled to arrive at its destination at 18:10 local time (22:10 UTC/2:10 Moscow time).Echelon 330, including the 10 kilometers altitude that the crashed Boeing was flying at, was open for international transit flights over the territory of Ukraine. According to the data provided by the airline, contact with the airplane was lost at 14:15 GMT, approximately 50km away from the Russian-Ukrainian border. However, according to internet portal Flightradar24, the airplane stopped transmission of ADS-B over Snezhnoe (the last reported coordinates 48.0403° northern latitude 38.7728° east longitude (G) (O)) after 13:21:28 UTC (17:21:28 Moscow time, 16:21:28 local time) at an echelon of 33 thousand feet (a bit over 10 kilometers).Later on, the wreckage of the airplane was found burning on the ground on the territory of Ukraine. The plane crashed in the area of village Hrabove (not far from Torez). No one from the passengers and aircrew members survived.

2. Investigated questions

Under what circumstances did the airplane crash?Who could be responsible for the crash?

3. Analyst group

A group of experts from the Russian Union of Engineers was gathered to analyze the situation. The expert group included retired AA officers, who had combat experience with surface-to-air missile systems, as well as pilots experienced in using air-to-air weapons. The problem was also discussed at the meeting of the Academy of Geopolitical Affairs, where many different versions were tested and discussed once again. In the course of the analysis, the experts used materials received from open sources published in mass media. The situation was also analyzed with the help of the Su-25 aircraft flight simulator.Concluding the conducted research work, the following analytical materials are presented.

4. General source data for the purposes of analysis

4.1. Overall aerial situation in the area around Donetsk. The overall aerial situation in the area around Donetsk was presented at a Special briefing of the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense regarding the crash of MH-17 in the airspace of Ukraine, on 21.07.2014.The objective control data, registered from 17.10 pm to 17.30 pm Moscow time, were presented at the briefing, during the speech of head of the Main Operations Directorate, deputy of the Russian Air Force Chief of Defence, Lieutenant General Andrey Kartapolov.During the time period in question, there were three civil airplanes in the sky, all of which were on their scheduled flights: Flight from Copenhagen to Singapore at 17:17;
Flight from Paris to Taipei at 17:24;
Flight from Amsterdam to Kuala-Lumpur Apart from these, Russian civil airspace control facilities recorded an altitude gain by a Ukrainian Air Force aircraft, supposedly Su-25, towards the Malaysian Boeing-777. The distance between the Su-25 and the Boeing-777 was 3-5 km.The aerial situation in the area of the crash of Boeing 777 (according to the data of the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense)4.2. Meteorological conditions in the area of the crash of the Boeing 777 Record of weather conditions in Topez, Donetsk Oblast, Thursday, 17 July, 2014. [TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Time[/TD]
[TD]Weather conditions[/TD]
[TD]Air temperature[/TD]
[TD]Wind speed m/s[/TD]
[TD]Atmospheric pressure[/TD]
[TD]Relative humidity %[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]15:00[/TD]
[TD]Overcast sky[/TD]
[TD]+31°C[/TD]
[TD]4.0[/TD]
[TD]730[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]15:00[/TD]
[TD]Overcast sky[/TD]
[TD]+31°C[/TD]
[TD]4.0[/TD]
[TD]730[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
4.3. Source data from the Boeing 777 crash siteA more complete picture of the reasons for the crash of Boeing 777 can be achieved through the analysis of its wreckage. Examining the pictures of the fragments, published on the Internet, one can notice various damage on its fuselage disruptions and breaks, holes with edges from the internal and external sides of the fuselage, which speak of a powerful external pressure against the airplane.A fragment from the wing of the Boeing 777A fragment from the fuselage of the Boeing 777A wing fragment from the aircraftA wing fragment from the aircraft A fuselage fragment from the aircraftA cabin fragment from the aircraft Holes with inward edges catch the eye. These are round-shaped holes, which are normally grouped. Such holes could only have round shapes in the case of being cut with metallic elements, possibly with bars or aviation cannon projectiles. This brings up the question: by whom and how could such elements be delivered to the airplane and what could these elements actually be?4.4. Characterization of the Boeing 777 aircraft as an air target The source data for the analysis of the given situation are technical specifications of the Boeing 777 aircraft; its flight path; the altitude and speed of the flight; heading alteration compared to the initial flight plan; site of the crash; photo and video materials of the plane wreckage; description of the range and the nature of wreckage dispersion.Boeing 777The most significant parameters of Boeing 777 serving for the purposes of the current analysis[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Wing span, m[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]60.93[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Length of the airplane, m[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]63.73[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Height of the airplane, m[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]18.52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Wing area, m2[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]427.80[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Maximum airspeed, km/h[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]965[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Cruise airspeed, km/h[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]905[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Operational range, km[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]8910[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Service ceiling, m[/TD]
[TD="class: numeric point, align: right"]13100[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Boeing 777 aircraft is not considered to be a difficult aerial target for AA systems. It is a high altitude aerial target (400012000 m) with a very large RCS (Radar Cross Section) no less than 10m (the RCS for an airplane of the Su-25 type is 0.50.6m), it has limited maneuverability, and it has no capacity for anti-AA counteraction (active and passive jammers, false targets, etc). It can be effectively targeted both by military aircraft (interceptors or other types of aircraft acting in the same altitude and speed range) as well as by AA systems of object (S-200, S-300 type) or tactical (BUK-M1) types.

5. Technical aspects of the problem

In the present day practice of using anti-air systems engagement of aerial targets is classified according to the following types:A. type termination of controlled flight
B. type restricted continuation of controlled flight without possibility of landing
C. type restricted continuation of controlled flight with possibility of landing and a subsequent repair of the aircraftIn this case, according to the available data, there is enough ground to claim that we deal with (A) type target engagement termination of controlled flight.We examined all major versions which had already been published by experts from different countries. Turning to the technical aspect of the problem, it can be claimed that the Boeing 777 was destroyed by anti-air defense systems either by using a surface-to-air missile, launched from the ground, or by another aircraft employing its missile or aircraft cannon.Applying engineering methods and technical analysis, the experts of the Russian Union of Engineers discussed both of these versions, which represent almost the unanimous spectrum of opinions by experts and specialists.

6. Version I. Boeing 777 was shot down as a result of using a surface-to-air missile, for example BUK-М1

AA missile 9K37M1 BUK-М1Technical characteristics of the AA missile 9K37M1 BUK-М1[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]The start of mass-production[/TD]
[TD]1983[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Targeting range, km[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]F-15 airplane types[/TD]
[TD]3..3235[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Targeting altitude, km[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]F-15 airplane types[/TD]
[TD]0,015..22[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Number of simultaneously engaged targets[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Single shot kill probability SAM[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD] Of a fighter[/TD]
[TD]0,8..0,95[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD] Of a helicopter[/TD]
[TD]0,3..0,6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD] Of a cruiser[/TD]
[TD]0,4..0,6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Maximum velocity of engaged targets, m/s[/TD]
[TD]800[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
6.1. Evidence supporting the first version6.1.1. The probability for the effective shooting down of an aerial target of the Boeing 777 type by an AA missile 9K37M1 BUK-М1 is high, as the plane was moving at a 10100 echelon, at the speed of 900 km/h. Such parameters could make it an aerial target for BUK-M1. The probability for successfully hitting such a target by a BUK-M1 AA system is 0.8-0.95, as a consequence, it is technically possible to hit an air target of this type.A group of Ukrainian AA missile systemsThe Ukrainian troops group around the site of the crash site included 34 systems of the BUK-M1 type. This information was published by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Head of the main Operation Directorate of General Stuff, Lieutenant General Andrey Kartapolov, emphasized the fact that the Russian military possesses photos of separate Ukrainian troop locations, made from space, including photos of Ukrainian army divisions in the southeast of Ukraine, particularly, BUK systems 8 km from Lugansk. In the morning following the crash of the Malaysian airliner, Russian control facilities discovered a BUK-M1 AA missile system around the Zaroshenskoe village. On that same day that system was redeployed towards the Donetsk area - towards the area where the militia troops were positioned. We consider these data to be objective and reliable.6.1.2. Also, the Russian Federation Ministry of Defense stated that Russian military officers recorded the operation of a radar of a Ukrainian BUK-M1 AA missile system on the day of the crash of the Malaysian liner Boeing 777. The target location and guidance system Kupol 9С18 is a three-axis coherent-impulse target locator performing the transmission of information about the aerial environment to the command observation post of the 9С470 AA missile system 9K37 BUK. The 9С18 radar is capable of detecting and identifying aerial targets at a distance of 110-160km, with an identification range for low-altitude targets (under 30m) of up to 45km. Such a radar could be used for the detection and tracking of a Boeing 777.Radar 9С18М1 «Kupol»Radar 9С18М1 Kupol[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Coverage area: [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]In azimuth, degrees[/TD]
[TD]360[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]In elevation angle, degree[/TD]
[TD]0-40[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Instrumented range, km[/TD]
[TD]10-160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Resolving power:[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]In range, м[/TD]
[TD]400[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]In azimuth, degrees[/TD]
[TD]3-4,5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]In elevation angle, degrees[/TD]
[TD]3-4,5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Continuous operation time, h[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]The set up and clotting time, min.[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Maximum velocity, km /h 656.1.3. However, experts of the Russian Union of Engineers find it important to note that the launch of a BUK-M1 missile is accompanied by the following significant audio-visual factors: Significant noise effect, both at missile launch time and during its flight, especially at altitudes between 100 and 3000m.
A powerful flash at the launch site (Photo 10).
A condensation trail, formed by the missile as a result of missile fuel burning on its flight trajectory (Photo 11).
A flash and a characteristic picture in midair at the point of convergence of the missile with the target. (Photo 12).6.1.4. The version that a BUK-M1 AA missile was used in this incident, according to the experts, has a number of vulnerable aspects, making it questionable:а) Up to now no one has provided reliable evidence of the a "surface-to-air" missile launch, which is known to be accompanied by significant noise and visual effects. Its condensation trail goes into the clouds and stays in the air for up to 10 minutes. The sound wave produced during the launch of the missile can be heard within a radius of 7-10 km around the launch site.Launch of a BUK-M1 AA missile b) The flight of a surface-to-air missile is accompanied by a very loud noise. Its flight can be visually traced due to the trail formed as a result of the missile fuel burning (condensation trail).In this case, there is no record of a trail in the form of a dense white condensation from the burning of fuel, as well as of a vapor path, which appears and stays for a few minutes after the launch and is well visible within a radius of no less than 10km from the launch site.BUK-M1 AA missile during flight c) The detonation of the warhead has a characteristic configuration, which can be seen from the ground under clear weather conditions.Air target shot down by a BUK-M1 AA missileThe surface-to-air missile 9М38 is equipped with a dual-mode solid-fuel engine (general operation time about 15 seconds).AA missile 9М38 BUK-M1Surface-to-air missile 9М38[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Missile length[/TD]
[TD]5,5 m[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Diameter[/TD]
[TD]400 mm[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Flaps width[/TD]
[TD]860 mm[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Missile weight[/TD]
[TD]685 kg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Warhead weight[/TD]
[TD]70 kg[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The surface-to-air missile, with 40-70kg of warhead payload, explodes not inside of the target, but in its proximity, at a distance of 50-100 meters.The warhead detonation causes an aerial shockwave, which results in a high-speed fragment distribution. The fragments are capable of breaking an airplane fuselage, but taking into account the dimensions of a Boeing 777 (63.7m length, with a large wingspan of over 60 m), they still cannot destroy the airplane, causing its fragmentation into several smaller parts, as is the case with aircraft that are 7-10 times smaller in size. When hitting a Boeing 777 such fragments may cause disruptions of fuel flow and lead to the leakage of fuel over the fuselage and wings and its subsequent ignition leading to a fire.d) Similarly, in the case that the hydraulic system had been damaged, the Boeing-777 would have lost control, or control would have become extremely difficult (shooting down type «В»). If an aircraft as big as the Malaysia Airlines Boeing-777 had been hit by a surface-to-air missile, the crew might have been able to warn flight services of the situation created onboard the aircraft. However, according to the information presented by mass media, nothing of the kind has been registered in the decoded data of the aircraft recorders.e) The crash of the airplane took place during daytime, in a highly populated area, where there were not only numerous military observers monitoring the air environment, but also many reporters equipped with video cameras, as well as local residents, having digital cameras and cellphones with cameras. It is also worth noting that the launch of a BUK-M1 surface-to-air missile requires the participation of at least a combat crew, which makes a stealthy launch rather difficult.It would be logical to assume that pictures and video recordings depicting the situation from various angles and displaying several stages of the flight of the missile, would have instantly appeared on the internet (the numerous amateur video recordings of the meteor impact near Chelyabinsk are a good example of that). However, local residents recorded only the fact of an explosion in the air and the falling of body fragments near their houses.f) During the crash of the Boeing-777 airplane, an American satellite was overflying the territory of Ukraine. Because of this, Russian military officers believe that the American side should publish satellite images made at the moment of its crash, if Washington possesses any such images.

Conclusions from the first version:The data and considerations above pose very significant challenges to the version according to which the Malaysian Boeing 777 airliner was shot down by a BUK-M1 surface-to-air missile system.

7. Version II. Boeing 777 was shot down as a result of another aircraft (one or multiple) using its missile and/or aircraft cannon equipment.

7.1. Evidence in favor of this version:7.1.1. In the airspace around the area where the Boeing has crashed, numerous witnesses claim to have seen a military aircraft (some people say there were two), supposedly an air superiority fighter, as they derived from its characteristic features and speed (the flight altitude of an air superiority fighter is 5000-7000m, and the velocity is around 950km/h or more).They also heard the sound of an airplane in the clouds. Presumably, these could have been airplanes of MiG-29 or Su-25 type.MiG-29MiG-29[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Maximum velocity high altitude \on the deck[/TD]
[TD]2450 km/h (М=2,3)\1300 km/h[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Maximum rate of climb, m/s[/TD]
[TD]330[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Acceleration time from 600 to 1100 km/h, from1100 to1300 km/h, s[/TD]
[TD]13,5\8,7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Takeoff airspeed, km/h[/TD]
[TD]220[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Service ceiling, m[/TD]
[TD]18000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Operational range (without a drop tank\with one drop tank tank\with 3 drop tanks), km[/TD]
[TD]1500\2100\2900[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Maximum turning rate, °/s[/TD]
[TD]23,5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Operational acceleration, g units [/TD]
[TD]+9[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
MiG-29 armament includes a single-barrel cannon GSh-301 (30 mm, 150 rounds of ammunition, firing rate of 1500 shots/minute) in the left wing root extension. For engaging air targets 6 short range R-60М or short range R-73 guided missiles with IR Seekers can be installed on the 6 below-wing stations of the MiG-29; 4 medium range guided missiles R-27RE with radar location or with R-27TE IR navigation system Р-77.Also, according to the data of the Ministry of Defense, on 17 July, Russian air control means registered altitude gain by an airplane of Ukrainian Air Forces, presumably, a Su-25, moving towards the Malaysian Boeing 777. The distance between the two airplanes did not exceed 3-4 km.Su-25Armament: One 30-mm 2-barrelled autocannon GSh-30-2 in the lower forebody with 250 rounds of ammunition. GM: air-to-air R-3 (АА-2) or R-60 (АА-8)air-to-surface Kh-25ML, Kh-29L or S-25L.Containers SPPU-22 with a 2-barrel 23-mm utocannon GSh-23L with 260 ammunition rounds.Su-25[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Wing span, m[/TD]
[TD]14.36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Weight, kg[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Maximum takeoff weight[/TD]
[TD]17600[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Maximum airspeed, km/h[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]At cruise altitude[/TD]
[TD]975[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]High altitude[/TD]
[TD]М=0.82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Operation range, km[/TD]
[TD]1850[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Mission radius, km[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]High altitude[/TD]
[TD]1250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]At cruise altitude[/TD]
[TD]750[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Service ceiling, m[/TD]
[TD]700010000[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
It should be noted that Su-25 specifications allow it to gain an altitude of 10.000m and above for a short period of time. Its standard armament includes air-to-air missiles R-60, which are capable of engaging and hitting targets at a distance of 10km, of which 8km is a guaranteed range. Moreover, it does not even need to come close to the target, but only to reduce the distance down to the required engagement range.7.1.2. The Russian Federation Ministry of Defense stated that Russian military officers fixed the operation of a Kupol radar, belonging to an Ukrainian AA missile BUK-M1 battery, on the day of the crash of the Malaysian liner Boeing 777.Statistics of Ukrainian radar activity in the area of the Malaysian Boeing 777 crash Operation of this radar can indirectly point to a military deployment of aircraft, as radars are regularly used for airspace reconnaissance and for transferring information to aircraft direction centers, i.e. they provide source data for flight officers' work in the course of an interceptor's or and interceptor group flight during "combat air patrol" missions or during ambush activities. Usually, attacks are performed according to target guidance from the ground, both head-on and in pursuit.7.1.3. On radars, the Su-25 is displayed in the same way as the MiG-29, as their radar cross sections are similar. The operational service ceiling of the MiG-29 is 18013m, so the altitude at which the Malaysian airliner was moving, 10100m, could easily be reached by a MiG-29. The MiG-29 has two high thrust engines, allowing it to attain a speed of 2000km/h.7.1.4. The data on meteorological conditions can also count in favor of the version that the Boeing 777 was attacked by another aircraft. Meteorological conditions from 15:00 to 18:00, 17.07.2014 in and around the city of Donetsk, were marked by rain and an overcast sky. Flight paths of passenger airplanes lie above the lower border of high-echelon clouds. At this altitude, only cirrus cloud can form. Those are separate white-colored fibrous clouds, which are thin and transparent, and rarely contain dense or flaky formations. They are arranged in the form of bundles and stripes, passing all along the sky and meeting at the horizon. They show perfectly well through the sky. The average height of the lower border is 7-10km, while the width can be from hundred meters up to several kilometers.An attack by a fighter aircraft with a rapid ascent, from below the cloud layer could be quite unexpected for the crew of the Boeing 777. Such an attack could not have been discovered visually from the earth either due to the dense layer of clouds in the medium and lower cloud echelons.Thus, it can be claimed with a certain degree of certainty, that the Boeing 777, conducting a horizontal flight at the altitude of 10000m, could actually be in the lethal range of aircraft cannon or missile armament of a fighter aircraft, be it MiG-29 or Su-25.7.1.5. Thus the logical question arises: which particular weapon was the cause of the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777?Missile armamentIn terms of missile armament, MiG-29 as well as Su-25 can carry short range guided missiles R-60MR-60M missiles on the external sling of the airplaneР-60М[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Length, m [/TD]
[TD]2,14[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Diameter, m[/TD]
[TD]0,12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Wingspan, m[/TD]
[TD]0,39[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Weight, kg[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Warhead weight, kg[/TD]
[TD]3,5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Speed[/TD]
[TD]2,5M[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Target kill altitude range[/TD]
[TD]0,03...20[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Maximum launch range, Front/Rear hemisphere[/TD]
[TD]10/8 km[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Minimal launch range Rear hemisphere, km [/TD]
[TD]0,3 - 0,25[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
MiG-29 is equipped with a 30mm GSh-301 cannon, with a fire rate of 1500 rounds per minute. The cannon is armed with 150 rounds, which contain a tungsten alloy. The effective range of firing at air targets is 200-800m, and 1200-1800m for ground targets. Such type of rounds exit cleanly, leaving holes of a perfectly circular shape. They do not explode inside the cabin, are not incendiary-based, but are able to kill the crew and cause the destruction of the cabin, which is typical for the entrance and exit holes configuration: entry holes with edges bent inwards, exit holes - on the opposite wall - with edges bent outwards.Aircraft Cannon GSh-301The Su-25 is equipped with a GSh-2-30 aircraft cannon.Aircraft cannon GSh-2-30GSh-2-30 (GSH-2-30K)[TABLE="class: spip, width: 99%"]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Delivery vehicles[/TD]
[TD]Су-25, Су-39, (Ми-24П)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Shot weight[/TD]
[TD]390 г[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Ammunition weight[/TD]
[TD]832 г[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Cannon weight[/TD]
[TD]105 (126) кг[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Specifications[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Caliber[/TD]
[TD]30 мм[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Number of barrels[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Allotment of rounds[/TD]
[TD]250 (750) патронов[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_odd, bgcolor: #EEEBC6"]
[TD]Rate of fire[/TD]
[TD](3002600) выст/мин[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row_even, bgcolor: #F5F3DA"]
[TD]Effective range for air targets[/TD]
[TD]200800 м.[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Apart from that, the Su-25 can carry SPPU-22 containers with the 2-barrelled 23-mm cannon GSh-23L.During combat usage, both types of cannon ammunition can cause fuselage damage similar to that visible on the wreckage of the Boeing 777.

Conclusions for the second version:Thus, based on the opinion of the analysts of the Russian Union of Engineers, a complex shooting down of the Boeing 777 airplane has taken place, both by a short-range air-to-air guided missile and a 30-mm aircraft cannon or a SPPU-22 container with the 2-barreled Gsh23-L cannon. Furthermore, a laser rangefinder or a laser aiming device could have been used when firing the target, which allowed to significantly increase the shooting accuracy. This conclusion can be made from the nature of damage and the fragment distribution: there are both circular holes, which are usually caused by cannon fire, and explosive damage, which indicates a missile with arrow-type submunition.

8. Wreckage analysis If we examine the first version of the crash, the location of holes in the wreckage surfaces and the fuselage clearly shows that there is no typical picture of a plane being affected by the missile system BUK-M1 submunition, which would otherwise leave highly remarkable and typical evidence of damage. In this case we see that there is no such evidence on the wreckage fragments.According to experts, in the case of a BUK-M1 AA missile system hit, there should have been traces of numerous specific holes caused by the submunition elements from the missile warhead. However, there is no such evidence present in the photos taken at the crash site.As to the possibility of such damage being inflicted by the usage of short range "air-to-air" missiles, it should be noted that the R-60 (Su-27) and R-73 (MiG-29) missiles are short range low-duty missiles with infrared homing. Their lethal range only 3-5m, with a guaranteed kill only in case of a direct hit. The warhead of the prior weighs 3.5kg, while the latter carries a 5kg warhead. They have thinly chopped tungsten wire in their warheads. These are rather low-power missiles, meant exclusively for small-sized targets. Such missiles follow thermal wake and are mainly meant to destroy the engine of the targeted aircraft.It would be more logical to assume that the damage presented in Photo 19 is more indicative for an aircraft cannon round of GSh or SPPU type.Boeing777 wing damage is not indicative for submunition elements of a BUK-M1 AA missile system.Boeing 777 wing surface damageBoeing 777 cabin damageThe picture of entry and exit holes in the cockpit area (control cabin) of the Boeing 777 fully corresponds to the assumption that it was caused by being shot through by approximately 20-30mm rounds from a fighter cannon. This supports the second version of the crash. The same can be said about the nature of fragment distribution over the fuselage of the plane. From the left side the edges of fragments of the control cabin fuselage are rolled up from inside to outside, which points at significant damage inside the cabin as a result of dynamic pressure of missiles over its right side.There are characteristic entrance holes and several exit holes visible on the fuselage. The edges of the holes are bent inwards, they are much smaller and are round-shaped. Exit holes are less precisely shaped, and their edges are bent outwards. Additionally, it is visible that the exit holes pierced the aluminum covering twice and bent it outwards. I.e., the striking elements (judging by the impact type, aircraft missile rounds) broke through the cockpit. Open rivets were also bent outwards.Boeing 777 fragment Fuselage damage is clearly visible break through holes, caused by a 20- to 30-mm cannon.Distinctive inward bends of the fuselage indicate a cannon round impact.Boeing 777 cover damage natureBoeing 777 fuselage damage natureBoeing777 fragment.Rivets blown out.Destruction of the fuselage with edges bent outwards due to an internal dynamic impact, either caused by an explosion inside the plane, or a sudden and rapid change of internal pressure at high altitude.The general typology of the holes and their location lead us to the conclusion that, most probably, the Boeing 777 was attacked by an aircraft cannon GSh-2-30, or an SPPU-22 container with a two-barreled 23mm cannon GSh-23L. The target zone was the control cabin, and the rounds, breaking through the cockpit, affected the wing surface as well. (see Photo. 20).Both types of cannon rounds during combat usage cause damage to aerial targets similar to that which can be seen on the fragments of the Boeing 777.The nature of the holes on the fragments of the plane fuselage, present in the currently available information sources, allows claiming that the airplane was shot down by aircraft cannon and missile armament of a combat aircraft.

9. Re-enactment of the event

Based on the considerations stated above, the following conclusions can be made:9.1. Regarding to the circumstances of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 crash.Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 was conducting the flight Amsterdam-Kuala-Lumpur, on 17.07.2014, according to the tunnel set by the air traffic controllers. It is most probable that manual steering was offline and the airplane was flying in autopilot mode, performing horizontal flight following the route which was laid out on the ground and adjusted by Ukrainian air traffic controllers.At 17.1717.20 the Boeing 777 was in Ukrainian airspace, in Donetsk area, at the altitude of 10100m. An unidentified fighter aircraft (presumably Su-25 or MiG-29), which was previously at a lower echelon, on a head-on course in a layer of clouds, ascended rapidly, unexpectedly emerging in front of the passenger plane out of the clouds and opened fire at the control cabin (cockpit), using 30mm or smaller cannon armament. The targeting could have been performed not only by the pilot of a fighter aircraft in "free hunt" conditions (using the aircraft radar), but also by a navigation officer on the ground, using the airspace data received from ground-based radars.The cockpit of the airliner was damaged in the result of numerous rounds hitting the aircraft fuselage. The control cabin was depressurized, which caused the instant death of the crew, due to mechanical influences and decompression. The attack was quite unexpected and lasted only a fraction of a second. Due to the surprise situation, the crew was unable to give any alarm signals intended for such situations, as the flight was following its scheduled route and the attack was unexpected for everyone.As neither the engines, nor the hydraulic system, nor other devices crucial to the continuation of the flight, were set out of operation, the Boeing 777 continued its horizontal flight in autopilot mode (which is a standard situation), perhaps gradually losing altitude.After that, the pilot of the unidentified fighter aircraft maneuvered and repositioned himself into the rear hemisphere of the Boeing 777. He entered an engagement course, performed the targeting using onboard target tracking equipment, and launched a R-60 or R-73 air-to-air missile (one or multiple).As a result of the missile impact, the entire cabin was depressurized, the flight control system was incapacitated, the autopilot was switched off, the plane ceased its horizontal flight and went into a tail-spin. The created g-forces caused a mechanical disruption of the airframe at high altitude.As indicated by the available flight recorder data, the plane fell apart in the air, but this is possible mainly in the case of vertical falling from a 10000m altitude, which can typically happen only in a case of exceeding the maximum allowed g-force. As a rule, such a tail-spin can be explained by the inability of the crew to control the airplane as a result of some emergency case in the cabin and subsequent instant depressurization of the cockpit and passenger compartment. The destruction of the airplane took place at a high altitude, which explains the fact that the wreckage of the plane was dissimilated over a territory over 15 km².9.2. Regarding the party responsible for the death of 283 passengers and 15 crew members.On 17.07.2014 the armed forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic possessed neither appropriate fighter aircraft capable of engaging an air target similar to the Boeing 777, nor an airfield network, nor radar detection devices, targeting and guidance equipment.Fighter aircraft of the Russian Federation Armed Forces did not violate the airspace of Ukraine, which is confirmed by both the Ukrainian side and by third parties performing space-based reconnaissance over the territory of Ukraine and its airspace.To ascertain the truth, it is required to objectively and impartially investigate all the circumstances of the Malaysian Boeing 777 crash, to question thousands of residents in the area who might have seen anything. Naturally, the surveys must be conducted by highly experienced specialists. Asking relevant questions is both a strict science and a sophisticated art of coming close to the truth. Crucial information is hidden in the wreckage and fragments of the crashed airplane, but this very information can easily be eliminated, distorted and concealed. It should not be forgotten that there are always people involved who seek to conceal each and every real fact. An indirect confirmation of this is the fact that on August 8th Ukraine, The Netherlands, Belgium and Australia signed an agreement allowing the disclosure of information regarding the investigation of the crash only at the consent of all parties involved."The investigation proceeds with inspections and other investigatory activities declared the Speaker of Ukrainian General Prosecutor's Office, Yuri Boychenko, - their results will be announced upon the end of the investigation and at the consent of all the parties, who have signed the relevant agreement".Delays and deviation from carrying out a comprehensive objective investigation with the participation of reputable international organizations, raise doubts that the involved parties will actually present the real circumstances of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 crash.

From VoltaireNet.

[Magda Hassan]

MH17 crash: Ukraine security chief says missile only Kiev has may be found at crash site

Published time: October 10, 2014 15:47 Get short URL

Emergencies Ministry members walk at the site of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 plane crash, MH17, near the settlement of Grabovo in the Donetsk region, July 17, 2014. (Reuters/Maxim Zmeyev)



Trends
Malaysia MH17 plane crash Tags
Arms, Army, Intelligence, Military, Planes, Politics, SciTech, Security, Ukraine

Ukraine's Security Council chief may have inadvertently spilled the beans, saying fragments of a Buk-M missile may be found with MH17 crash debris. However, the exact missile he mentioned is only possessed by Ukraine, Russian army officials say.
Investigation of the MH17 Boeing-777-200 crash in July will be completed when the remains of the Buk-M air defense missile are found, Valentin Nalivaichenko, head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), told Ukrainian TV.
Ukraine will fulfill its obligations and identify the perpetrators, who will bear responsibility and compensate for the damage for taking down the MH17 flight with 298 passengers and crew on board, Nalivaichenko said.
"It will be Russian servicemen who used the Buk-M missile" to take down the passenger jet, he said.
A source in Russia's Joint Staff has commented on the issue to RIA Novosti news agency, saying that Nalivaichenko's involuntary leak has revealed that Ukraine possesses a modernized version of the Soviet-made air defense complex.

krainian Security Service Chairman Valentin Nalivaichenko. (RIA Novosti/Alexandr Maksimenko)

In the early 1980s, the Soviet Union's defense industry began production of the Buk-M1, an extremely effective, medium-range missile defense system.
Many of the Buk-M1s were stationed on the country's western borders, on the territory of three regions in the Ukraine Soviet Socialist Republic.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, all those systems remained in Ukraine and today Kiev possesses no less than 70 such systems, RIA Novosti's source said.
According to open sources, the Russian army operates over 350 Buk-M1-2 and Buk-M2 missile systems, with only the latest modified versions developed after Ukraine became independent in 1991 with the fall of the USSR. Russia's modified versions came into operation in the late 1990s, and now have completely replaced the older, Soviet missile systems.
The Russian military expert stressed that Russia has no "modernized" Buk air defense systems.
Russia operates over 350 Buk missile systems, all of them of the latest versions of the Buk M1-2 and Buk M2, he said.
"When Mr Nalivaichenko mentions a modernized Buk' system, he probably means an air defense system that was upgraded by the Ukrainian defense industry. We know that Ukraine has been working in this direction," the source said, adding that the information about the modernization of Ukrainian Buk systems was confirmed in late June on the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's website, which reported renovated missile systems becoming operational.
This happened just a few weeks before the Malaysian Airlines Boeing-777-200 was shot down in Ukrainian airspace on July 17.
According to the source in Russia's Joint Staff, any unauthorized modification of the electronics of complicated military hardware would do no good, as it would degrade the accuracy of the weapon.
Originally, all Buk air defense systems operated in Ukraine were produced at the high-security Research Institute of Instrumentation plant in the Moscow Region.
"The confusion and inconsistency of Nalivaichenko's responses leaves no doubt that he mentioned a plan that definitely had not been developed by the SBU, but rather brought in the other day from their overseas mentors," the Joint Staff source said. "This is Nalivaichenko and his big mouth blunder."
On the day that the MH17 was shot down, Ukraine's 156th SAM regiment carried out an unauthorized missile launch, an emergency situation that is being investigated by the SBU and obviously being hushed up by Kiev authorities, the official said.
"You don't need to be a genius to put together the elements of this puzzle and understand what kind of a picture Mr Nalivaichnko is attempting to sell us," the source at Russia's Joint Staff said.

[David Guyatt]

Can this doozie, Abbot, really be so stupid as he pretends - or is he really just playing to the public?

Answers please, on a postcard addressed to Tony Abbot, Oz PM, and marked with "Identify the Stupid versus Sly, Yank-owned Pol Competition."

Tony Abbott says he will shirtfront' Vladimir Putin over downing of MH17

PM says his conversation with the Russian president at the G20 summit next month will be the toughest conversation of all'

• Gabrielle Chan and Gay Alcorn
  
• theguardian.com, Monday 13 October 2014 07.04 BST
  
• Jump to comments (421)
  

Abbott resorted to the AFL term for roughing up an opponent to describe his approach to Putin's visit. Photograph: Alexei Nikolsky/AP

Tony Abbott says he will "shirtfront" Vladimir Putin over the downing of MH17, claiming his conversation with the Russian president at the G20 would be "the toughest conversation of all".
The prime minister resorted to the Australian Rules football term for roughing up an opponent to describe his approach to Putin's presence in the country next month.
"I am going to shirtfront Mr Putin you bet I am I am going to be saying to Mr Putin Australians were murdered, they were murdered by Russian backed rebels," Abbott said.
The government has confirmed Putin will be attending the world summit in Brisbane after G20 countries agreed "by consensus" that Russia should not be sidelined.
It is alleged Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine in July by Russian-backed rebels, killing all 298 passengers and crew, including 38 Australian citizens and residents.
Abbott said while Australia was the temporary president of the G20, it could not make unilateral decisions on behalf of the body.
"It has to be by consensus and the G20 consensus is that Russia should come," Abbott said. "I think there will be a lot of tough conversations with Russia and I suspect the conversation I have with Mr Putin will be the toughest conversation of all.
The opposition leader, Bill Shorten, acknowledged Australia had no control over the invitation list but took a swipe at the government for "laying out the red carpet". He also accused Putin of knowing "more about what happened with MH17 than he's let on".
"It's an international conference, not a conference run by Australia, so if Putin has the arrogance to turn up to visit a nation whose nationals died in this plane crash, he can," Shorten said.
"But I'm like most Australians, I wish that Putin would at least show enough conscience to be able to not come to Australia, because he's rubbing our faces in it.
"Also what I happen to think is that when you deal with international bullies, the way you do it isn't by laying out the red carpet."
Paul Guard, whose parents, Roger and Jill Guard, were killed in the MH17 crash, said little would be achieved by Putin staying away.
"It wouldn't achieve much by uninviting him because dialogue is the way forward and I hope the G20 might be a good platform on which to strongly voice our disapproval of his government's policy and approach to Ukraine," Guard told Guardian Australia.
"It might be uncomfortable for people to shake hands with him [but] at the end of the day, what do you achieve by not inviting someone like that? It would only play to his domestic politics."

[Magda Hassan]

Abbott is a punch drunk pugilistic right wing fundamental Catholic on a mission from god to slay the communist heathens. He missed the memo about Putin not being a communist. He is posturing on the world stage in his own Cold War Warrior Adventure. That is when he is not busy poking sticks at the Muslim infidels and Yellow Peril. Because in Abbott world God is still an Englishman. Just like Abbott born and bred.

[David Guyatt]

jeez! God isn't English? Are you sure?

[Magda Hassan]

jeez! God isn't English? Are you sure?

Abbott's god is a bit of a wanker.

[Magda Hassan]

Germans Clear Russia in MH-17 Case

October 20, 2014

Exclusive: For months, Western governments and media have accused Russia of supplying the anti-aircraft missile that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 killing 298 people. But now German intelligence has reportedly determined the missile came from a Ukrainian military base, writes Robert Parry.
By Robert Parry
The West's case blaming Russia for the shoot-down of a Malaysia Airlines plane over Ukraine last July appears to be crumbling as the German foreign intelligence agency has concluded that the anti-aircraft missile battery involved came from a Ukrainian military base, according to a report by the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel.
The Obama administration and other Western governments have pointed the finger of blame at Russia for supposedly supplying a sophisticated BUK missile system to ethnic Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine who then allegedly used the weapon on July 17 to shoot down what they thought was a Ukrainian military plane but turned out to be Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing all 298 people onboard.

The Russians denied providing the rebels with the weapon and the rebels denied shooting down the plane. But the tragedy gave the U.S. State Department the emotional leverage to get the European Union to impose tougher economic sanctions on Russia, touching off a trade war that has edged Europe toward a new recession.
But now the narrative has shifted. The German intelligence agency, the Bundesnachrichtendienst or BND, asserted that while it believes rebels were responsible for shooting down the plane, they supposedly did so with an anti-aircraft battery captured from a Ukrainian military base, according to Der Spiegel.
The BND also concluded that photos supplied by the Ukrainian government about the MH-17 tragedy "have been manipulated," Der Spiegel reported. And, the BND disputed Russian government claims that a Ukrainian fighter jet had been flying close to MH-17 just before it crashed, the magazine said.
None of the BND's evidence to support its conclusions has been made public, but Der Spiegel said the information given to members of a parliamentary committee on Oct. 8 included satellite images and other photography. What's less clear, however, is how the BND could determine the precise command-and-control of the BUK missile system amid the chaotic military situation that existed in eastern Ukraine last July.
At the time, the Ukrainian army and allied militias were mounting an offensive against ethnic Russian rebels who were resisting a U.S.-backed coup regime that ousted elected President Viktor Yanukovych last February, touching off what quickly became a nasty civil war.
Spearheading Kiev's summer offensive were pro-government militias, some of which were filled with neo-Nazi extremists and financed by Ukrainian billionaire oligarchs including Ihor Kolomoisky, who had been appointed governor of the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Region. The ethnic Russian rebels also were a disorganized lot with poor command and control.
Rushing to Anti-Russian Judgment
Yet, the Obama administration was quick to pin the blame for the MH-17 crash on Russia and the rebels. Just three days after the crash, Secretary of State John Kerry went on all five Sunday talk shows fingering Russia and the rebels and citing evidence provided by the Ukrainian government through social media.
On NBC's "Meet the Press," David Gregory asked, "Are you bottom-lining here that Russia provided the weapon?"
Kerry: "There's a story today confirming that, but we have not within the Administration made a determination. But it's pretty clear when there's a build-up of extraordinary circumstantial evidence. I'm a former prosecutor. I've tried cases on circumstantial evidence; it's powerful here." [See Consortiumnews.com's "Kerry's Latest Reckless Rush to Judgment."]
But some U.S. intelligence analysts offered conflicting assessments. After Kerry's TV round-robin, the Los Angeles Times reported on a U.S. intelligence briefing given to several mainstream U.S. news outlets. The story said, "U.S. intelligence agencies have so far been unable to determine the nationalities or identities of the crew that launched the missile. U.S. officials said it was possible the SA-11 [anti-aircraft missile] was launched by a defector from the Ukrainian military who was trained to use similar missile systems." [See Consortiumnews.com's "The Mystery of a Ukrainian Defector,'"]
A source who was briefed by U.S. intelligence analysts told me that some analysts had concluded that the rebels and Russia were likely not at fault and that it appeared Ukrainian government forces were to blame, although possibly a unit operating outside the direct command of Ukraine's top officials.
The source specifically said the U.S. intelligence evidence did not implicate Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko or Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk but rather suggested an extremist element of the armed forces funded by one of Ukraine's oligarchs.
Regarding the alleged Russian role, the source said the U.S. analysts had found no evidence that the Russian government had given the rebels a BUK missile system, which would be capable of shooting down a commercial airliner at 33,000 feet, the altitude of MH-17.
According to the Der Spiegel story, the BND reached the same conclusion, that Russia was not the source of the missile battery. But the BND and these U.S. analysts apparently differ on who they suspect fired the fateful missile. [See Consortiumnews.com's "Flight 17 Shoot-down Scenario Shifts"and "Was Putin Targeted for Mid-air Assassination?"]
What has been curious about the handling of the MH-17 case is the failure of the Obama administration and other Western governments to present whatever evidence they have, whether satellite, electronic or telephonic so the investigation can proceed more quickly in determining who was responsible.
By withholding this evidence for nearly three months, the West has benefited from keeping alive the anti-Russian propaganda blaming Moscow and President Vladimir Putin for the tragedy but the secrecy has given the perpetrators time to scatter and cover their tracks.
With Der Spiegel's report, it's now clearer why the delay and the secrecy. If the missile responsible for bringing down MH-17 came from a Ukrainian military base not from the Russian government then a very potent anti-Putin propaganda theme would be neutralized. More attention also would focus on whether the missile battery was really under the control of a rebel unit, as the BND suggests or was in the hands of anti-rebel extremists.
http://consortiumnews.com/2014/10/20/ger...h-17-case/

[David Guyatt]

Very interesting. It's probably my cynicism, but I get the impression that this BND report has been refined to suit all parties - a sort of slapping the US in the face, but very gently so.

But the significant thing is that Putin is now in the clear and sanctions will, presumably, soon be reversed?

[Magda Hassan]

Yes. The sanctions aren't going quite as planned by the US. The EU and Germany in particular is keen to get back to business as usual as the counter sanctions are biting them badly.