Ukraine: Elections or Emergency Rule?

[Peter Presland]

No doubt others have seen this on Global Research:

I'm drawing attention to it 6 days in advance of the run-off election because it strikes me as a solid piece of analysis and I'll be VERY surprised indeed if the run off does not produce serious unrest and the sort of denouement the article envisages. I monitor Rick Rozov's Yahoo Group 'Stop NATO' and his much lower traffic blog . The volume of posts on Yahoo is generally about 20+ per day - mainly in the form of links to Russian/Ukrainian/ Georgian and Central Asian publication stories. From the perspective of anyone hoping against hope for signs of a saner world emerging, they make thoroughly depressing reading. They make it crystal clear that, far from being slowed by present and pending economic disasters, the US/UK/NATO drive for Global 'Full Spectrum Dominance' and a single world order effectively dictated by the West, is actually accelerating. Western military and diplomatic initiatives are pressing relentlessly almost everywhere you look - especially including the Black Sea, Ukraine and Georgia.

IMO, the upshot of all this for the Ukrainian election process is that the effective reversal of the 'Orange Revolution' (which is what the defeat of that beautifully photo-genic Tymoshenko would mean) will be fought with every possible dirty trick in the book. The polls are clear enough - she WILL be defeated - but given the critical implications of that for those NWO plans, it quite simply cannot be allowed to happen.

I expect fireworks and I therefore expect this thread to be active well beyond next Sunday.

I sincerely hope I turn out to be wrong.

The Internet abounds with forecasts concerning the second round runoff in Ukraine's presidential elections. Public opinion polls suggest that Yanukovich's victory is imminent, and the majority of experts seem to agree with the prediction. The natural question in the context is: given that from the outset the Orange Revolution in Ukraine prevailed as the result of the unconstitutional annulling of the former run-off outcome, can we expect compliance with democratic norms this time? Chances are too high that ballots will be counted by Yu. Tymoshenko's campaign managers. The trajectory of her ascension to power was too tricky and the West's investments in the Orange project – too serious to believe that she has no Plan B for the runoff. When the preliminary results of the first round were announced, Tymoshenko immediately responded by charging that mass rigging had taken place in South-East Ukraine. She is a priori determined not to admit to being defeated and will seize every opportunity to derail the elections by instigating mass falsifications, provocations, mass protest rallies, and court hearings.

It became widely known that about a thousand Georgian citizens posing as observers landed in Ukraine on the eve of the elections. They will launch provocations and attempt to destabilize the elections in Donetsk, the main city of the pro-Russian South West Ukraine where Yanukovich enjoys practically undivided support. The relatively quiet conduct of the Georgian “visitors” during the first round of the elections only makes one await an escalation during the runoff. Ukrainian nationalist groups will likely contribute, and the conflicts may take a violent turn. Under the scenario, Ukraine will face an internal schism regardless of the outcome since the legitimacy of the new President will be open to controversy. The imposition of Tymoshenko's victory would be tantamount to direct suppression of the will of the majority of Ukraine's constituency.

The Regions Party press release says: “We have reliable information about the plans to destabilize the already complicated situation in the country. We will continue sharing this information with the public and resisting the implementation of the plans”. Director of the Ukraine Department of the CIS Countries Institute V. Kornilov expressed the same view: “In case Tymoshenko loses, she will nevertheless claim that she has won. We must be ready to see the main battle take place not at polling stations but in courts and in Kyiv's main square”.

Tymoshenko will not recognize her defeat on February 7. This is the first conclusion. However, there is yet another potential scenario which carries the risk of broader destabilization – the introduction of the emergency rule in Ukraine.

The second conclusion is that the outgoing President Yushchenko gave his support to his foe, Prime Minister Tymoshenko. For a limited period of time, the Orange Revolution leaders stopped warring to jointly confront Yanukovich in the runoff. Yushchenko's support for Tymoshenko is not limited to useless calls to vote for her as the candidate representing the smaller evil. The measures taken by president-eject Yushchenko are clearly aimed at promoting the common Orange cause. He sided with Tymoshenko in the conflict over the January 25 seizure of the Ukraine Publishers plant. Police master Yu. Lutsenko is regarded as Tymoshenko's ally. The police is patrolling the perimeter of the plant while Yushchenko's Presidential Security Service is controlling the printing of the ballots. Large numbers of uncounted ballots can thus be printed and injected during the runoff.

It is not Tymoshenko that Yushchenko is working for, and chances are the latter will emerge as the winner from the brewing conflict instead of the former. There is a high probability that the elections in Ukraine will end with the introduction of the emergency rule and the prolongation of Yushchenko's presidential term. Massive falsifications and violations by both sides and clashes – ethnic and political – in the Crimea or elsewhere would provide Yushchenko with a pretext for indefinitely extending his term as the guarantor of the Constitution. Efforts have been made in Ukraine to probe into the public reaction to the establishment of “the dictatorship of law” by the law-enforcement agencies. In November, 2009 a major upheaval was caused by the interviews on the issue given by former army intelligence chief and deputy director of security service A. Skipalski.

Ukrainian nationalists openly espouse the plan in their blogs. A typical post read: “I vote for Tymoshenko in the hope that either she wins and a pro-Russian criminal will not become our President or she loses by a minimal margin and take the case to court if not start fighting. Then the current President will have to disqualify both candidates and impose an emergency rule to avoid bloodshed”.

The implementation of the scenario would require a serious armed backing, but in this respect Yushchenko's resources are limited, which must be the key argument against the plan. The security service has no major armed units (except for a special forces crack team which counts a relatively small number of servicemen). The Ukrainian army is weak and Yushchenko can hardly expect loyalty from it. The police and the internal troops have the largest and most combat-ready forces, but the police territorial divisions are mostly under the de facto control of regional elites. As the result, Ukrainian nationalist groups – quite considerable across the country - are the main force at Yushchenko's disposal.

There is almost no doubt that guerrillas from the ranks of Ukrainian and Crimean Tatar nationalists will be employed to provoke armed clashes in the Crimea and in Sevastopol. Provocations in the Crimea may be cited to justify expelling the Russian Navy from its Sevastopol base and declaring the state of emergency. Indicatively, Yushchenko said that the recently inaugurated Russian copter-carrying ship would be used by Russia to occupy the Crimea. In such a case, Yushchenko's claim that as the guarantor of the constitution he is trying to prevent the disintegration of the politically divided Ukrainian society can be reinforced by invoking the threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

[Magda Hassan]

Thanks for posting this Peter. I concur with you on both counts. About the depressing but valuable reading of the Stop-NATO list and that the election in the Ukraine shows a comprehensive rejection of the shock doctrine and forced NATO incorporation.

[Peter Presland]

All the exit polls have Yanukovich ahead by a wide margin - in line with pre-election polls. Predictably enough, Flaxen-braided-hair Beauty Tymoshenko indicates she will be a bad loser.

If Yanukovich is confirmed then all talk of Ukrainian accession to NATO stops and Western plans for domination of the Black Sea take a serious hit - as do its rangy, swaggering dealings in the Caucasus and Central Asia generally.

Stand by for the fireworks

This from Reuters:

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich won Sunday's election for president, exit polls said, but likely challenges to results from defeated candidate Yulia Tymoshenko could paralyze the beleaguered country for weeks.
If confirmed, a Yanukovich victory could prompt legal challenges and street protests from Tymoshenko and delay Ukraine's chances of repaying over $100 billion of foreign debt and nursing its sickly economy back to health after a 15 percent collapse last year.
Yanukovich, 59, a beefy ex-mechanic who wants better ties with Moscow, staged a remarkable comeback from a former election disgrace to lead Sunday's runoff vote with 49.8 percent, according to pollsters ICTV.
Former gas tycoon and serving premier Tymoshenko, who led crowds onto the streets in 2004 to strip Yanukovich of victory after a fraudulent election, trailed Sunday with 45.2 percent.
Two other exit polls also pointed to Yanukovich winning.
The exit polls came as voting ended in snowy, sub-zero temperatures in this country of 46 million, and protests from Tymoshenko's camp about alleged violations of election rules began. Official results were expected during Sunday night.
"The involvement of the court is possible, but the huge margin which Yanukovich has cannot be canceled by any court," said close Yanukovich aide Boris Kolesnikov after the exit polls were published.
A Yanukovich win would also mark the end of the country's pro-Western 2004 Orange Revolution, co-led by Tymoshenko and serving President Viktor Yushchenko, and could move the country back toward its former master Russia.
Yushchenko was eliminated from voting in the first round of the election after coming fifth. He led a series of bitter personal attacks on his former ally Tymoshenko.
Sunday's vote appeared to reflect a widespread feeling among Ukrainians that the Orange Revolution failed to deliver prosperity or stability and led to squabbling and crisis.
Voters were unenthusiastic about either candidate but seemed to feel Yanukovich, a former premier who stressed the fight against poverty in his campaign, had the best chance of restoring order.
"We lost five years of our lives thanks to Yushchenko and Tymoshenko," said Oleg Nochvyn, a miner in his 50s in the eastern region of Donetsk.
"For five years they were promising us -- tomorrow will be better. Well, I get up the next day and it's worse than the day before ... Under Viktor Fyodorovich (Yanukovich) we had everything -- economic growth, everything was getting better."
The economy has been battered by a decline in the value of Ukraine's steel and chemicals exports that has hammered the hryvnia currency, slashed budget revenues and undermined the domestic banking system.
"I am sure that the Ukrainian nation deserves a better life," a smiling Yanukovich said casting his ballot. "That is why I have voted for good changes, for stability and for a strong Ukraine."
Regardless of the outcome of Sunday's election, squabbling and intrigue were set to continue.
Before polls closed, Tymoshenko's camp said it would contest results in around 1,000 polling stations in the eastern Donetsk region, the industrial power base of Yanukovich.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksander Turchynov, Tymoshenko's campaign chief, complained of multiple voting and bribery.
Investors want a new president who will be able to resume borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF put lending on hold in frustration at political squabbling and concerns about budget spending.
The 2010 budget has still not been approved and the country has had no confirmed finance minister since February 2009, when veteran Viktor Pynzenyk resigned saying he could no longer do the job amid the political infighting in Kiev.
(Additional reporting by Dmitry Solovyov in Kiev and Lina Kushch in Donetsk; Writing by Michael Stott in Moscow; editing by Ralph Boulton)

[Peter Presland]

The silence from Ukraine is truly deafening.

Tymoshenko postponed her press conference scheduled for Monday. Muted claims of inevitable victory for Yanukovich with the electoral commission having provided numbers for percentage of votes remaining to be counted which, as of about mid-day Monday was just less than the gap between the two camps.

Results originally scheduled to be announced Sunday night.

But as of 07:30 GMT Tuesday morning, still nothing, with Al Jazeera, Eurasia Net, Reuters, AP and Rick Rozov's Yahoo list all silent.

I don't know how to interpret the silence. Clearly there is skulduggery afoot - the natural state of affairs with such momentous issues at stake for both Russia and US/NATO (let alone Ukraine itself) - but my crystal ball has gone cloudy.

My suspicion is that, with enthusiasm for street protests by either side drained, the status-quo may just get away with stealing it.

As usual I sincerely hope I am wrong.

PS

Also, from my extensive monitoring of the UK and US MSM over the past 3 days, I have yet to see a single mention of the elections in Ukraine - strange eh?

[Magda Hassan]

I'm waiting with bated breath too Peter. Yanukovich was the winner but there is as yet no concession from Timoshenko. No doubt much horse trading and shifting of money to the Swiss bank accounts in the mean time. Not to mention running through the colour charts for a brand new shiny colour for all the t shirts, bandanas and posters to be printed now that Orange is out of fashion.

[Magda Hassan]

I'm looking forward to how he deals with the IMF and other vultures. Iceland may have a partner in default.

[David Guyatt]

Peter said:

Also, from my extensive monitoring of the UK and US MSM over the past 3 days, I have yet to see a single mention of the elections in Ukraine - strange eh?

It realy is most curious how our beloved media can sometimes not talk with one unified voice when the occasion demands. Just as they can also talk with a unified voice when required.

Must be something to do with the Newspaper Publishers Association?

[David Guyatt]

Just to prove us wrong, the BBC strike!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8505397.stm

Ukraine awaits Tymoshenko's move



Ukraine is waiting for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to either contest results from Sunday's presidential election, or accept defeat and quit.

Pro-Moscow opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych appears to have narrowly won the poll, which monitors have praised.

But she has stayed tight-lipped amid calls by international observers for a peaceful transition of power.

Mrs Tymoshenko is expected to hold a news conference later, after twice postponing addressing media on Monday.

"For everyone in Ukraine, this election was a victory," the observers, led by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, said in a statement.

ANALYSIS
Richard Galpin, BBC News, Kiev
Will Yulia Tymoshenko accept the election result or not?

Will she or won't she pursue her political ambitions through the courts or in protest action on the streets?

It is not often that the woman with the famous golden braid, whose glamour permeated the Orange Revolution five years ago, retreats into the shadows and maintains a strict silence.

But this is a moment of truth for her and she has a tough set of options.

Mrs Tymoshenko, 49, accused her rival of foul play on Sunday evening, but did not repeat an earlier threat to call her supporters out on to the streets in a repeat of the 2004 Orange Revolution that thrust her to power.

The BBC's Richard Galpin in Kiev says there are very few who believe Mrs Tymoshenko could muster any serious number of protestors to back her cause.

And she is under pressure to make a decision sooner rather than later, he added.

Mr Yanukovych was a presidential candidate in the 2004 election, but was swept aside when the vote was found to have been rigged in his favour.

On Monday, his supporters gathered in front of the Central Election Commission in victory, but also to protest about the failure of Mrs Tymoshenko to accept defeat and resign as prime minister.

WHY UKRAINE MATTERS
Russian Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol, Crimea
Most Europe-bound Russian gas piped through Ukraine
Large ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking minority in Crimea and industrialised east
Strong nationalist, pro-Western sentiment in west
Aspirations for EU and Nato membership, though latter strongly opposed by Russia
The EU foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, said the EU was prepared to work with the new president.

"The European Union remains committed to deepening the relationship with Ukraine and supporting it in implementing its reform agenda.

"It looks forward to working with the new president to this end."

With more than 99% of votes counted, Mr Yanukovych was estimated to be ahead on some 48.83% of the vote, while Mrs Tymoshenko had around 45.59%.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko lost in the first round of the election last month, coming in fifth place.

[Peter Presland]

Movement at last - and thoroughly predictable it is too:

This from Al Jazeera:

Tymoshenko 'to argue Ukraine vote'

The parliamentary faction of Yulia Tymoshenko, Ukraine's prime minister, has claimed widespread fraud in the country's presidential election and said it would challenge the result in court.
Serhiy Sobolev, a member of the Tymoshenko bloc, told a meeting on Tuesday that Sunday's vote "displayed a cynical violation of Ukranian law" by the teams of Viktor Yanukovych, who led polls by a narrow three per cent.
"Consequently, the Tymoshenko bloc announces that we will defend in the courts our right, and the rights of our citizens, to honest and transparent elections," the Reuters news agency quoted him as saying.
According to local media, Tymoshenko has refused to concede defeat and told officials that she will "never recognise" the legitimacy of the election.
But Ukrainskaya Pravda, an online newspaper, said a significant section of her party, including the deputy parliament speaker, were hoping to persaude the prime minister to acknowledge Yanukovych's victory.
'Honest choice'
Tymoshenko and her aides had alleged significant violations by the Yanukovych camp in the run-up to the vote and the prime minister had warned of mass protests if she detected fraud. However, her party has made no mention of holding demonstrations since the election results were announced. Thousands of Yanukovych supporters have rallied outside Ukraine's central election commission in a bid to protect the result of the election.
"We want Yanukovych to make our life better, that he comes to power and improves our lives," a woman from Kiev, Ukraine's capital, told Reuters "We want to protect the honest choice of the people, we are standing here for Viktor Yanukovych, Viktor Yanukovych is our president," another woman said.
A legal challenge to the narrow margin of victory could deny Ukraine a swift return to stability and rattle financial markets.
The country of 46 million people has been battered by the economic crisis and badly needs to restart talks with the International Monetary Fund on a $16.4bn bail-out package.

That's a pretty muted response though. Hardly the fighting talk that preceded the challenges that annulled Yuschenko's win last time. Still I reckon he'd be wise not to underestimate her and her backers. Like I said earlier, they WILL be bad losers.

[Magda Hassan]

Ahhhh.... she's chosen a new colour for her outfit.