05-05-2010, 08:13 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/...earn-japan
The Soviets retreated from Eastern Europe peacefully, for the most part. Will America end its military occupations the same way?
Quote:What Nick Clegg can learn from Japan
The Japanese prime minister won on a platform of change – but was then humiliated in Washington, losing support at home
By Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 4 May 2010 20.11 BST
For a glimpse of the fate that may await Nick Clegg in Washington, were he to become prime minister, one need only look at the trials and tribulations of Yukio Hatoyama, Japan's inexperienced leader who took office last year. Like Clegg, Hatoyama proposed a more equal, less subservient bilateral relationship. He wanted to explore alternative alliances, including closer ties with China. He even suggested closing a US military base. Now he's paying the price of his effrontery.
Attending last month's nuclear summit in Washington, Hatoyama's officials lobbied hard for a one-on-one meeting between their man and Barack Obama. The request was brusquely rebuffed. Instead the Japanese prime minister had to settle for a rushed 10 minutes sitting next to Obama at dinner, making his points while his host consulted the menu. In Tokyo, his treatment was described as humiliating.
More extraordinary still, according to US press accounts, Obama bluntly informed Hatoyama that he was "running out of time" to settle the dispute over relocation of a US Marine Corps base at Futenma, on Okinawa, and asked him to his face whether he could be trusted. Japanese officials were reportedly so affronted by Obama's rudeness that they did not distribute the usual written record of the exchanges.
It got worse. Hatoyama's presumption in appearing to challenge US security interests, and Obama's rough handling of him, led Washington Post gossip columnist Al Kamen to label him the summit's "biggest loser". Kamen said Obama administration officials had ridiculed the Japanese leader as "increasingly loopy". This in turn provoked a media frenzy in Japan, as translators tried to establish exactly how insulting "loopy" really was.
A top aide to Hatoyama criticised the term as "somewhat impolite". But then, to everyone's amazement, Hatoyama went to the Diet (parliament) and suggested, self-deprecatingly, that the description may be accurate. "As the Washington Post says, I may certainly be a foolish prime minister," he said, before going on to admit that he could have handled the Futenma base issue sooner and better.
Hatoyama's Democratic party won in a landslide last August, ending 50 years of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democrats who by and large submitted unquestioningly to Washington's will. His ideas about giving Japan a more independent voice in the world, of loosening the American harness, were actually quite modest and mostly unlikely to be implemented.
But far from respecting the voters' verdict, the US responded with bullying, name-calling, arm-twisting and exaggerated warnings about the consequences for Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, culminating in the banquet snub. Now Hatoyama's self-criticism suggests he may not last much longer.
Given his relatively more provocative views on nuclear disarmament, closer British ties with a united Europe, and the importance of upholding human rights, even in "war on terror" conflict zones, "prime minister" Clegg could be assured of a yet rougher, Kinnock-esque reception in Washington – though even brasher Americans may hesitate to suggest the elected leader of their closest military ally was off his nut.
Clegg may also wonder, in such circumstances, how long he could hold on to power. Hatoyama must certainly be wondering himself. The growing perception among Japanese voters that he is weakly bowing to US demands on Futenma, reinforced by his apologetic talk in Okinawa today about the need for compromise, has greatly undermined him.
A majority believes he should resign if he loses the Futenma fight or misses his self-imposed deadline of the end of May for settling it. In the latest poll, only nine months after he swept to victory, his approval rating is down to 21%. Some analysts say he is playing for time, hoping to fudge the issue until after July's upper house parliamentary elections. Some suggest he may be replaced.
Factors other than US pressure have contributed to Hatoyama's plight, including Japan's government debt problems (bigger even than Britain's) and a "money politics" sleaze scandal. But at the same time, Obama's hardball tactics could backfire. With the LDP opposition in disarray, the Democrats are likely to be in power for some years to come. Resentment of America, fed by sympathy for the fierce opposition of many Okinawans to the overbearing 49,000-strong US presence there, could actually solidify and spread if Japan is humiliated. And China will surely welcome, and encourage, fractures in the US-Japan alliance.
As president, Obama has gained a reputation, fairly or unfairly, for disregarding America's friends while coddling its enemies, for appeasing upstart dictators while alienating old allies. Hatoyama's crusade against Japan's "old politics" looks like being one casualty. If he were to take office, Clegg would also encounter formidable US hostility to some of his ideas. He may do well to consult Tokyo's thwarted change-maker before venturing across the Atlantic.
The Soviets retreated from Eastern Europe peacefully, for the most part. Will America end its military occupations the same way?
"There are three sorts of conspiracy: by the people who complain, by the people who write, by the people who take action. There is nothing to fear from the first group, the two others are more dangerous; but the police have to be part of all three,"
Joseph Fouche
Joseph Fouche