Thousands March in Egyptian Capital Calling for President’s Ouster

[David Guyatt]

Forgive this old Limey, but who's running this apparently well orchestrated campaign?

As I said earlier, is it another colour revolution?

What's Uncle's position in all this?

Just asking....

[Peter Lemkin]

Forgive this old Limey, but who's running this apparently well orchestrated campaign?

As I said earlier, is it another colour revolution?

What's Uncle's position in all this?

Just asking....

My take is that PUBLICLY the USG is playing both sides...but PRIVATELY, Egypt is only second to Israel in military and intel support.....so.....

The color is the color of sand.......it is not named yet, but I vote for the 'Sand Revolution [having been in Cairo during a sandstorm...an amazing and life-changing event].....

It seems we will have to wait a few more days to know. My gut feeling [only based on what little info we get with communications downed by the Egyptian Govt. is that while the Egyptian Govt. and their surrogate, the USG are trying and no doubt to some extent controlling things and have agents provocateurs everywhere, that this is a legit, bottom-up revolution....sadly, as we both know so many that started that way, were co-opted by the forces of evil and repression not long after.....

FWIW

[Jeffrey Orling]

Most dangerous weapon and most feared by the ruling elite:

The internet and "social media"

Control that and you can destroy an effective mass uprising of the people.

Smoke signals don't cut it these days.

Nor carrier pigeons.

[Peter Lemkin]

Well, above I agree with J.O., mostly, for once. But when one has no internet, one must use the drum and word of mouth.....etc. Word will get around in Egypt the old-fashioned way.

However, the bigger question is when will the revolution in the streets being in the UK and USA?!?!?! Were that to happen similar wouldn't even be really needed in most countries that now need them....as we hold up those tyrannies and they would collapse the minute we did.

[Magda Hassan]

Forgive this old Limey, but who's running this apparently well orchestrated campaign?

As I said earlier, is it another colour revolution?

What's Uncle's position in all this?

Just asking....

Not sure either David. The Muslim Brotherhood are likely to be big winners which does not fill me with joy. Uncles Sam looks like they are seeing where the wind will blow and no doubt have a couple of fans handy. They have not come out with unequivocal support for Mubarak but are urging the government to 'respect the human rights' of the people. A bit rich coming from the US who render their ghost prisoners the Egypt to be tortured. In any case the lack of social media connectivity due to the government cutting the internet has made no difference to the protesters who have defied the curfew and come out in even bigger numbers and found ways around that anyway. Many police stations and other security organisations have been burned, there were protesters outside the Hilton Hotel and stock exchange which has closed. No apparent 'leader'. Economics seems to be at the heart of this. Big rises in food prices and fuel prices as in Tunisia. Yemen and Jordan too are in this situation. The Arab gulf states are not. Libya not. But Saudi Arabia will be interesting to watch in the medium term due to high unemployment there. No doubt the elites in Egypt are busing looking for a suitable person to represent them and their best bet is Al Baredi due to him being untainted by the Mubarak party connections. But there are others too and the religious parties, Muslim Brotherhood, are a big contender too.

Mubarak is almost certainly gone. His son, and supposed successor, left the country a few days ago. There has been no communication from the government and their HQ have been torched by protesters. No emergency services went to protect it. On the other hand the military are all over the city but are not attacking the people but are guarding the embassies and museums.

[Magda Hassan]

Mubarak was just on tv. He has sacked the cabinet and will appoint a new one tomorrow. Pretty poor speech. I doubt that this will satisfy any one in Egypt. Talked a lot about 'freedom' and 'stability' and 'chaos' and sounded like a threat if things continue. Talked about the aspirations of the Egyptian people and all that his government had done but this is clearly not enough or people would not be protesting and he doesn't explain how he has not been able to achieve the needs of the people in 30 years. If he hasn't done it by now it is not going to happen.:flypig:

[Magda Hassan]

Making sense now of the appearance of the taking head Obama.

US secretly backed Egyptian protest leaders


By Nathan Diebenow
Friday, January 28th, 2011 -- 8:27 pm
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For the last three years, the US government secretly provided aid to the leaders behind this week's social uprising in Egypt aimed to topple the government of President Hosni Mubarak, according to a leaked diplomatic cable.
One of the young Egyptian leaders who attended a summit for activists in New York with the help of the US embassy in Cairo was detained when he returned to Egypt, the memo released by Wikileaks said.
The Daily Telegraph reported Friday that it and the secrets outlet were both hiding the identity of this young Egyptian leader. He was arrested in connection with this week's demonstrations.
The leaked document indicates that the US government was publicly supporting Mubarak's government while privately backing opposition groups.
A plan concocted by the dissident groups to oust Mubarak and install a democratic government prior to the September 2011 elections was relayed to the American Embassy in Cairo.

Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador in Cairo, said in the memo to the US Secretary of State in Washington D.C. that she questioned the likelihood that such an action would happen.
Other cables revealed, however, the US diplomats had sought out the opposition groups, one of whose members attended a youth summit in Washington organized by the State Department.
This week's protests in Egypt were instigated by a group of young, educated Egyptians known as the "April 6 youth movement," which has a presence on the social network site Facebook.
The Scobey memo was labeled "April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt."
The Egyptian government has blacked out the Internet and other telecommunications in a move to quell the protester's organization.
in a brief television appearance Friday, US President Barack Obama called on President Mubarak to restore telecommunications to the Egyptian people and on both sides to refrain from violence.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/01/secre...t-leaders/

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 002572 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA, R, S/P

AND H NSC FOR PASCUAL AND KUTCHA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL:

12/30/2028 TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KDEM, EG SUBJECT: APRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS

U.S. VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT REF: A. CAIRO 2462 B.

CAIRO 2454 C. CAIRO 2431 Classified By: ECPO A/Mincouns

Catherine Hill-Herndon for reason 1.4 (d ). 1. © Summary and
comment: On December 23, April 6 activist xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed
satisfaction with his participation in the December 3-5 \"Alliance of
Youth Movements Summit,\" and with his subsequent meetings with USG
officials, on Capitol Hill, and with think tanks. He described how
State Security (SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his
return and confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling
for democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his Congressional
meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx contended that the GOE will never undertake
significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians need to replace the
current regime with a parliamentary democracy. He alleged that
several opposition parties and movements have accepted an unwritten
plan for democratic transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim.
xxxxxxxxxxxx said that although SSIS recently released two April 6
activists, it also arrested three additional group members. We have
pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6 activists. April 6's
stated goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections is highly
unrealistic, and is not supported by the mainstream opposition. End
summary and comment. ---------------------------- Satisfaction with
the Summit ---------------------------- 2. © xxxxxxxxxxxx expressed
satisfaction with the December 3-5 \"Alliance of Youth Movements
Summit\" in New York, noting that he was able to meet activists from
other countries and outline his movement's goals for democratic change
in Egypt. He told us that the other activists at the summit were very
supportive, and that some even offered to hold public demonstrations
in support of Egyptian democracy in their countries, with xxxxxxxxxxxx
as an invited guest. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he discussed with the other
activists how April 6 members could more effectively evade harassment
and surveillance from SSIS with technical upgrades, such as
consistently alternating computer \"simcards.\" However, xxxxxxxxxxxx
lamented to us that because most April 6 members do not own computers,
this tactic would be impossible to implement. xxxxxxxxxxxx was
appreciative of the successful efforts by the Department and the
summit organizers to protect his identity at the summit, and told us
that his name was never mentioned publicly. ------------------- A
Cold Welcome Home ------------------- 3. (S) xxxxxxxxxxxx told us
that SSIS detained and searched him at the Cairo Airport on December
18 upon his return from the U.S. According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, SSIS
found and confiscated two documents in his luggage: notes for his
presentation at the summit that described April 6's demands for
democratic transition in Egypt, and a schedule of his Capitol Hill
meetings. xxxxxxxxxxxx described how the SSIS officer told him that
State Security is compiling a file on him, and that the officer's
superiors instructed him to file a report on xxxxxxxxxxxx most recent
activities. --------------------------------------------- ----------
Washington Meetings and April 6 Ideas for Regime Change
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 4. ©
xxxxxxxxxxxx described his Washington appointments as positive, saying
that on the Hill he met with xxxxxxxxxxxx, a variety of House staff
members, including from the offices of xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx),
and with two Senate staffers. xxxxxxxxxxxx also noted that he met
with several think tank members. xxxxxxxxxxxx said that xxxxxxxxxxxx's
office invited him to speak at a late January Congressional hearing on
House Resolution 1303 regarding religious and political freedom in
Egypt. xxxxxxxxxxxx told us he is interested in attending, but
conceded he is unsure whether he will have the funds to make the trip.
He indicated to us that he has not been focusing on his work as a
\"fixer\" for journalists, due to his preoccupation with his U.S.
trip. 5. © xxxxxxxxxxxx described how he tried to convince his
Washington interlocutors that the USG should pressure the GOE to
implement significant reforms by threatening to reveal CAIRO 00002572
002 OF 002 information about GOE officials' alleged \"illegal\"
off-shore bank accounts. He hoped that the U.S. and the international
community would freeze these bank accounts, like the accounts of
Zimbabwean President Mugabe's confidantes. xxxxxxxxxxxx said he wants
to convince the USG that Mubarak is worse than Mugabe and that the GOE
will never accept democratic reform. xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that
Mubarak derives his legitimacy from U.S. support, and therefore
charged the U.S. with \"being responsible\" for Mubarak's \"crimes.\"
He accused NGOs working on political and economic reform of living in
a \"fantasy world,\" and not recognizing that Mubarak -- \"the head of
the snake\" -- must step aside to enable democracy to take root. 6.
© xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed that several opposition forces -- including
the Wafd, Nasserite, Karama and Tagammu parties, and the Muslim
Brotherhood, Kifaya, and Revolutionary Socialist movements -- have
agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a
parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an
empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011
presidential elections (ref C). According to xxxxxxxxxxxx, the
opposition is interested in receiving support from the army and the
police for a transitional government prior to the 2011 elections.
xxxxxxxxxxxx asserted that this plan is so sensitive it cannot be
written down. (Comment: We have no information to corroborate that
these parties and movements have agreed to the unrealistic plan
xxxxxxxxxxxx has outlined. Per ref C, xxxxxxxxxxxx previously told us
that this plan was publicly available on the internet. End comment.)
7. © xxxxxxxxxxxx said that the GOE has recently been cracking down
on the April 6 movement by arresting its members. xxxxxxxxxxxx noted
that although SSIS had released xxxxxxxxxxxx and xxxxxxxxxxxx \"in the
past few days,\" it had arrested three other members. (Note: On
December 14, we pressed the MFA for the release of xxxxxxxxxxxx and
xxxxxxxxxxxx, and on December 28 we asked the MFA for the GOE to
release the additional three activists. End note.) xxxxxxxxxxxx
conceded that April 6 has no feasible plans for future activities.
The group would like to call for another strike on April 6, 2009, but
realizes this would be \"impossible\" due to SSIS interference,
xxxxxxxxxxxx said. He lamented that the GOE has driven the group's
leadership underground, and that one of its leaders, xxxxxxxxxxxx, has
been in hiding for the past week. 8. © Comment: xxxxxxxxxxxx
offered no roadmap of concrete steps toward April 6's highly
unrealistic goal of replacing the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy prior to the 2011 presidential elections. Most opposition
parties and independent NGOs work toward achieving tangible,
incremental reform within the current political context, even if they
may be pessimistic about their chances of success. xxxxxxxxxxxx
wholesale rejection of such an approach places him outside this
mainstream of opposition politicians and activists.
SCOBEY02008-12-307386PGOV,PHUM,KDEM,EGAPRIL 6 ACTIVIST ON HIS U.S.
VISIT AND REGIME CHANGE IN EGYPT

[Magda Hassan]

Egypt: Tor Use Skyrocketing as Users Route-Around Internet Blocks

By Klint Finley / January 28, 2011 10:55 AM / 1 Comments
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This post is part of our ReadWriteHack channel, which is a resource and guide for developers. The channel is sponsored by the Intel AppUp Developer Program. As you're exploring these resources, check out this helpful resource from our sponsors: AIR for AppUp: What You Need To Know


As we reported yesterday, the Egyptian government appears to be locking down Intrernet access in Egypt. Access in or out of the country seems to be blocked. GigaOm provides some analysis on how this might work.
However, some Egyptian Internet users are still able to access the outside Internet. The Washington Post lists some ways that Egyptians are still accessing the Internet. Meanwhile, use of Tor, a free Internet anonymizer, is skyrocketing.

Here's a graph from the Tor Metrics Portal:

According to the Post:

• Noor Data Networks, the provider used by the Egyptian Stock Excahnge, is unaffected by the Internet blackout.
  
• Some are using dial-up access routed through other countries, though there are reports that some landlines are down.
  
• Some are using virtual private networks.
  

It's being widely retweeted that a French ISP called French Data Network is offering free dial-up to Egyptians: "Free dialup internet access for egypt : http://www.fdn.fr on +33172890150 login toto password toto #jan25 #egypt MASS RT PLZ"
Many people on Twitter are calling for people in other countries to setup Tor relays.
It's probably worth revisiting the failure of Haystack, an interesting but badly flawed attempt at anonymizing Internet traffic. Perhaps this will also rekindle interest in projects like Freenet and Netsukuku.
http://www.readwriteweb.com/hack/2011/01...feedburner

[Peter Lemkin]

Mubarak was just on tv. He has sacked the cabinet and will appoint a new one tomorrow. Pretty poor speech. I doubt that this will satisfy any one in Egypt. Talked a lot about 'freedom' and 'stability' and 'chaos' and sounded like a threat if things continue. Talked about the aspirations of the Egyptian people and all that his government had done but this is clearly not enough or people would not be protesting and he doesn't explain how he has not been able to achieve the needs of the people in 30 years. If he hasn't done it by now it is not going to happen.:flypig:

Horrible speech by any standard and no matter if one likes or hates Mubarak. He hung himself with that speech...though I'd be hard put to find a different version that could have saved him. I predict the whole thing will fall apart within a week and Mubarak is likely making his escape plans and escape 'funds' ready now....I think he sees the writing on the wall and will try one last move and then quit while the quiting is still good [his head still attached to the rest of him]. Sadly, I fear for what will happen after.

Nice find Magda - the cable. If the USA is behind this - or even if they are not - they may soon try to take advantage. They have many many assets there of their own and within Mubarak's secret police who do not wear uniforms and are everywhere. The key will be what the military does....but I fear a military government [of course they'll say it is 'just temporary' until things calm down]........I've seen this movie before and it didn't end well for the average person.

Israel also must be getting their rockets, bombers and nukes ready...I sense, if this spreads to other countries [likely] while it holds the POTENTIAL for democratic change....it also holds the potential for very horrible events in the region with the guidance of 'hidden hands'.

[Peter Lemkin]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/20...intcmp=239

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xWiBCIxjIk&NR=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHIW9rGDlAA