US/NATO War on Russia

[Peter Lemkin]

It appears to me that the entire region now has become unstable - there were take overs of government buildings in the East of Ukraine and protests in Moldova...... I find this entire situation highly dangerous. The President of the Czech Republic called for NATO to send forces into Ukraine....things unwind toward a conflict between NATO and Russia - that would be catastrophic no matter how it played out. It now looks like a loose-loose situation is the best one can expect.

[Magda Hassan]

Ukraine: Lies and Realities

by ANDRE VLTCHEK
Kiev.
Two beautiful Slavic sisters, Ukraine and Russia, pitched against each other: long hair flying in the wind, gray-blue eyes staring forward accusatively, but in the same time with anticipation and love.
One single moment, one wrong move, one word, and two countries, two allies, two almost identical cultures, can easily dash at each other's throats… Different words, different gestures, and they can also fall into each other's arms, instantly.
Is there going to be a war, a battle or an embrace? Is there going to be an insult or reconciliatory words?
Ironically, there is no self-grown dispute' between two nations. The seeds of mistrust, and possible tragedy, are sown by the outsiders, and nurtured by their malignant propaganda.
As Sergei Kirichuk, leader of progressive movement Borotba', explained:

"We have extensive invasion of western imperialism here. Imperialists were acting through huge network of NGOs and through the western-oriented politicians integrated into western establishment. Western diplomats declared that they invested more that 5 billions of dollars to development of democracy in Ukraine'. What kind of investment is it? How was this amount spent? We don't really know, but we can see the wide net of the US agents operating inside many key organizations and movements.
We can see that those western democracies' had not been concerned at all about growing of the far-right, Nazi movements. They had been ready to use the Nazis as a real armed force in overthrowing of Yanucovich.
President Yanucovich was actually totally pro-western politician, to start with. And his guilt' consisted only of his attempt to minimize the devastating aftermath that would come after implementation of the free trade zone with EU, on which the West was insisting."

***

Now Maidan, the main square of Kiev where the revolution' took place, is scarred, burned down, eerie.

Right-wingers, ultra-nationalists, young and not so young men with shaved heads, are watching pedestrians with confused, often provocative eyes.
Many of them are now controlling the traffic and, like in Thailand where the right-wingers also recently protested, are deciding who can pass and who cannot. The law is clearly and patently in their hands, or more precisely, in Maidan area, they are the law.
Religious symbols are suddenly everywhere, while monuments to heroes of the revolution and the WWII are desecrated.
At the makeshift stage used by right-wing extremists, there is a huge crucifixion as well as Virgin Marry.
But many right-wingers are at total disarray, they are outraged, as one of their leaders, Aleksandr Muzychko, was murdered just one day earlier.
Oleh Odnorozhenko is speaking. He is angry, irritated, accusing the state, the same government his people brought to power through the coup just a short time ago, of political murder. He is calling for the second stage of the revolution', as if one past stage would not be terrible enough, already.
My friend Alexander is explaining to me: "This is going to be a tremendous mess. The West used all fascist and ultra-nationalist forces to destroy legitimate government of Ukraine, but paradoxically, these ultra right-wingers are essentially against both NATO and all those agreements with the European Union."
Afghanistan, Al-Qaida, scenario, in brief and on smaller scale: use any force, any radicals, as long as you can manage to destroy the Soviet Union and later, Russia.
"They are going to get into each other's hair very soon", predicts Alexandr, former military intelligence officer.

***

The car is negotiating a bumpy four-lane highway between Kiev and Odessa. There are three of us on board my translator, Dimitry from the Liva.com site, a driver, and me. Having left Kiev in the morning, we are literally flying at 160km/h towards Odessa.
The wide fields of Ukraine, formerly known as the breadbasket' of the Soviet Union, look depressingly unkempt. Some are burnt.
"What are they growing here?" I ask.
Nobody knows, but both of my friends agree that almost everything in Ukraine is now collapsing, after the decomposition of the USSR, and this includes both industry and agriculture. The roads are not an exception, either.
"They only built facades during the last decades", explains Dimitry. "The core, the essence had been constructed in the Soviet era. And now everything is crumbling."
***
I have no idea where the official numbers come from; those that say that Ukraine is evenly divided between those who support the West, and those who feel their identity is closely linked with Russia. Maybe this might be the case in Western Ukraine, in Lvov, or even in the capital Kiev. But Western Ukraine has only a few key cities. The majority of people in this country of around forty-four million are concentrated in the south, east and southeast, around the enormous industrial and mining centers of Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, and Krivoi Rog. There is Odessa in the south, and Kharkov the second capital' in the east. And people in all those parts of the country mainly speak Russian. And they see, what has recently happened in Kiev as an unceremonious coup, orchestrated and supported by the West.

***

Before reaching Odessa we leave the highway and drive northeast, towards Moldova and its small separatist enclave, called Transnistria.
There, the river Kuchurgan separates the Ukrainian town of Kuchurgan and the Transnistrian city of Pervomaisc.
I see no Russian tanks at Pervomaisc, no artillery. There is absolutely no military movement whatsoever, despite the countless Western mass media reports testifying (in abstract terms) to the contrary.
I cross the bridge on foot and ask the Transnistrian border guard, whether he has recently seen any foreign correspondents arriving from the United States or the European Union, attempting to cross the border and verify the facts. He gives me a bewildered look.
I watch beautiful white birds resting on the surface of the river, and then I return to Ukraine.
There, two ladies who run the Camelot Bar' served us the most delicious Russo/Ukrainian feast of an enormous borscht soup, and pelmeni.
Russian television station blasts away, and the two women cannot stop talking; they are frank, proud, and fearless. I turn on my film camera, but they don't mind:
"Look what is happening in Kiev", exclaims Alexandra Tsyganskaya, the owner of the restaurant. "The US and the West were planning this; preparing this, for months, perhaps years! Now people in Ukraine are so scared, most of them are only whispering. They are petrified. There is such tension everywhere, that all it would take is to light a match and everything will explode."
Her friend, Evgenia Chernova, agrees: "In Odessa, Russian-speaking people get arrested, and they are taken all the way to Kiev. The same is happening in Kharkov, in Donetsk, and elsewhere. They call it freedom of speech! All Russian television channels are banned. What you see here is broadcasted from across the border. They treat people like cattle. But our people are not used to this: they will rebel, they will resist! And if they push them to the edge, it will be terrible!"
Both women definitely agree on one thing: "We say, don't provoke Russia!' It is a great nation, our historical ally. It has been helping us for decades."
A civil war', I hear in Kuchurgan. A civil war!' I hear in Odessa. A civil war!' I hear in Kharkov.
And the same words in Odessa are even written on huge banners: "Kiev, people are not cattle!"
Odessa city, that architectural jewel, an enormous southern port, is now relatively quiet, but tense. I speak to the manager of the historic and magnificently restored Hotel Bristol, but she is very careful in choosing her words. I mention Western involvement in the coup, or in the revolution' as many in Kiev and in the West call it, but she simply nods, neutrally.
I cross the street and enter the Odessa Philharmonic Theatre. A young lady approaches me: "Would you like to have my ticket?" She asks in perfect Russian. "My boyfriend did not show up. Please enjoy."
The performance is bizarre, and clearly un-philharmonic'. Some renowned folk ensemble performs old Ukrainian traditional songs and dances, but why here and why now? Is it a patriotic gesture, or something else?
The city is subdued, as well as those famous Potemkin Stairs: Renowned for one of the most memorable scenes in world cinema that of, the silent film Battleship Potemkin' directed in 1925 by Sergei M. Eisenstein.
As Helen Grace once wrote:

The Odessa steps massacre in the film condenses the suppression, which actually occurred in the city, into one dramatised incident, and this remains one of the most powerful images of political violence ever realised.

One only hopes that Odessa never again falls victim to unbridled political cruelty, such as was visited on the people by the feudal, oppressive right-wing Tsarist regime, at the beginning of the 20[SUP]th[/SUP] century!

***

Babushka looks exhausted and subdued. She is slowly digging into dark earth, all alone, clearly abandoned.
I spotted some collapsed houses in the village that we had passed just a few minutes earlier, and I asked the driver to make a U-turn, but he clearly did not see any urgency and continued to drive on: "You will see many villages like this", he explained. Dimitry confirmed: "Such villages one are all over Ukraine. There are thousands of them; literally, you see them whenever you leave the main roads."
This one, this village, is called Efremovka, and the name of a grandmother is Lyubov Mikhailovna.
We are somewhere between the cities of Nikolayev and Krivoi Rog.
All around us are the ruins of agricultural estates, of small factories, and houses that used to belong to farmers. Wires are missing from electric poles, and everything appears to be static, like in a horror science-fiction film. Only Lyubov Mikhailovna is digging, stubbornly.
I ask her how she is managing to survive, and she replies that she is not managing at all.
"How could one survive here on only one thousand Hryvnas per month (around US$80)?" she laments. "We are enduring only on what we grow here: cucumbers, tomatoes, potatoes…"
I ask her about the ruins of houses, all around this area, and she nods for a while, and only then begins speaking: "People abandoned their homes and their villages, because there are no jobs. After the Soviet Union collapsed, the entire Ukraine has been falling apart… People are leaving and they are dying. Young people try to go abroad…. The government is not even supplying us with gas and drinking water, anymore. We have to use the local well, but the water is contaminated by fertilizers it is not clean…"
"Was it better before?" I ask.
Her face brightens up. She stops speaking for a while, searching her memory, recalling long bygone days. Then she answers: "How can you even ask? During the Soviet Union everything was better, much better! We all had jobs and there were decent salaries, pensions… We had all that we needed."
Looking around me, I quickly recall that Ukraine is an absolute demographic disaster: even according to official statistics and censuses, the number of people living in this country fell from 48,457,102 in 2001 to 44,573,205 in 2013. Years after its independence', and especially those between 1999 and 2001, are often described as one of the worst demographic crises in modern world history. In 1991 the population of Ukraine was over 51.6 million!
Only those countries that are devastated by brutal civil wars are experiencing similar population decline.

***

Krivoi Rog or Kryvyi Rih as it is known in the Ukrainian language is arguably the most important steel manufacturing city in Eastern Europe, and a large globally important, metallurgical center for what is known as the Kryvbas iron- ore mining region.
Here Krivorozhstal, one of the most important steel factories in the world, it had seen outrageous corruption scandals during its first wave of privatization. During the second privatization in 2005, the mammoth factory was taken over by the Indian multi-national giant, Mittal Steel (which paidUS$4.81 billion), and was renamed Arcelor Mittal Kryvyi Rih. Since then, production has declined significantly, and thousands of workers were unceremoniously fired.
According to the Arcelor Mittal Factbooks (2007 and 2008), steel production decreased from 8.1 million tons in 2007, to 6.2 million tones in 2008. In 2011, the workforce decreased from 55,000 to 37,000 tons, and the management is still hoping that even more dramatic job cuts (down to 15,000) can be negotiated.
By late afternoon, we arrived at the main gate of the factory. Hundreds of people were walking by; most of them looking exhausted, discouraged and unwilling to engage in any conversation.
Some shouted anti-coup slogans, but did not want to give their names or go on the record.
Finally, a group of tough looking steelworkers stops, and begins to discuss the situation at the factory with us, passionately:
"Do you realize how little we earn here? People at this plant, depending on their rank, bring home only some US$180, US$260, or at most some US$450 a month. Across the border, in Russia, in the city of Chelyabinsk, the salaries are three to four times higher!"
His friend is totally wound up and he screams: "We are ready! We will go! People are reaching the limit!"
It is hard to get any political sense from the group, but it is clear that opinions are divided: while some want more foreign investment, others are demanding immediate nationalization. They have absolutely no disputes with Russia, but some support the coup in Kiev, while others are against it.
It is clear that, more than ideology; these people want some practical improvement in their own lives and in the life of their city.
"All we have heard, for the past twenty years is that things will improve", explains the first steel worker. "But look what is happening in reality. Mittal periodically fails to pay what is due. For instance, I am supposed to get 5,700 Hryvnas a month, but I get less than 5,000. And the technology at the plant is old, outdated. The profits that Mittal is making at least if some of it would stay here, in Ukraine, and go to the building of the roads or improving the water supplies… But they take everything out of the country."
The next day, in Kharkov, Sergei Kirichuk, concludes:
"People all over the world are fighting against so-called free market', but in Ukraine, to bring it here, was the main reason for the revolution'. It is really hard to believe."

***

The border between Ukraine and Russia, near the town of Zhuravlevka, between Ukrainian Kharkov and the Russian city of Belgorod, is quiet. Good weather, wide fields and an almost flat landscape, guarantee good visibility for several kilometers. On the 28 of March, when Western and Ukrainian mass media were shouting about an enormous Russian military force right at the border, I only saw a few frustrated birds and an apparently unmanned watch tower.
The traffic at the border was light, but it was flowing and several passenger cars were crossing from the Russian side to Ukraine.
What I saw, however, were several Ukrainian tanks along the M-20/E-105 highway, just a stone throw away from the borderline. There were tanks and there were armored vehicles, and quite a substantial movement of Ukrainian soldiers.
The local press was, however, not as aggressive, provocative:
"State of War!" shouted the headlines of Kyiv Post. "We lifted up to the sky 100 jet fighters, in order to scare Moscow", declared Today'.
***
The reality on the ground differed sharply from the fairytales', paid for and propagated by Western mass media outlets and by the free Ukrainian press'.
In Kharkov, Soviet banners flew in the wind, next to many Russian flags. Thousands of people gathered in front of the giant statue of Lenin on those windy days of 28[SUP]th[/SUP] and 29[SUP]th[/SUP] of March.
There were fiery speeches and ovations. The outraged crowd met the proclamations that the Western powers had instigated the fascist coup' in Kiev, with loud shouts: "Russia, Russia!"
Old women, Communist leaders, and my friend Sergei Kirichuk, as well as people from international solidarity organizations, made fiery speeches. Apparently, the government in Kiev had already begun to cut the few social benefits that were left, including free medical assistance. Several hospitals were poised to close down, soon.
People were ready to fight; to defend themselves against those hated neo-liberal policies, for which (or against which) none of them had been allowed to vote for.
"In Crimea, people voted, overwhelmingly, to return to Russia", explained a young man, a student, Alexei. "But the West calls it unconstitutional and undemocratic. In Ukraine itself, the democratically elected government has been overthrown and policies that nobody really wants are being pushed down our throats. And… this is called democracy!"
In an apartment of the Borodba movement, a young leader and history student, Irina Drazman, spoke about the way the West destroyed Ukraine. She reminded me of a Chilean student leader and now an MP Ms. Camila Vallejo. Irina is only twenty, but coherent and as sharp as a razor.
"There is great nostalgia for the Soviet Union", she explains. "If only it could be re-shaped and the concept improved, most of the people in Ukraine would be happy to be part of it again."
And that is exactly what the West tries to prevent: A powerful and united country, one which can defend the interest of its people.
Standing in front of a police cordon in Kharkov, Alexandr Oleinik, a Ukrainian political analyst, explains:
"The essence of what is now happening is based on the doctrine of the United States, which has one major goal: To wipe out from the globe, first the Soviet Union, and then Russia, regardless of its form; whether socialist or capitalist… As is well known, these goals were already defined in the early 1980's, by Zbigniew Brzezinski, in his report to the US Department of State, "Game Plan: A Geostrategic Framework for the Conduct of the U.S.-Soviet Contest".
Besieged square in front of the court of justice may not be the most comfortable place for political discussions, but Mr. Oleinik has plenty to share:
"After destroying USSR, the US is, until now, making enormous effort to, in accordance with the Brzezinski Doctrine', to drag Russia, Ukraine and other post-Soviet countries, into exhausting regional conflicts, in order to out root from the consciousness of the people of these nations all thoughts about reunification (be it a customs union, common economic sphere, etc.). Series of color revolutions' from so-called American doctrine of advancement of democracies' became a clear proof of the essence of the geopolitical interests of the US. Libya, Tunis, Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Yugoslavia all this is from the same shelf."
"Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador, Zimbabwe, Eritrea, even China", I continue.
Policemen are looking at us suspiciously, as both of us are naming dozens and dozens of countries located in all corners of the world.

***

In Kiev's Maidan, the main square where the revolution' or the coup took place, the right-wing groupings are hanging around, aimlessly. Some men and women are frustrated. Many now even feel that they were fooled.
Thousands were paid to participate in what was thought would bring at least some social justice, some relief. But the interim government began taking dictate, almost immediately: from the United States, from European Union and from the institutions such as IMF and World Bank.
Now thousands of disgruntled revolutionaries' feel frustrated. Instead of saving the country, they sold all ideals, and betrayed their own people. And their own lives went from bad to worse.
The tension is growing and Ukraine is on the edge.
There is growing tension, even confrontation, between conservative, oppressive forces and those progressive ones. There is tension between Russian speakers and those who are insisting on purely Ukrainian language being used all over the country.
There are political assassinations; there is fear and uncertainty about the future.
There is increasing and negative role being played by the religions: from Protestant to Orthodox.
Nobody knows what will follow the coup. Confusion and frustration, as well as social collapse, may well cause a brutal civil war.
Protesters are now, this very moment, occupying government buildings in Donetsk and Lugansk, demanding referendum. Majority of people in these and other cities would rather join Russia then to live in pro-Western dictatorship, which Ukraine became after the coup.
Same tactics that were lauded by Western propaganda during the Maidan uprising are now hypocritically condemned in the east and south of the country.
Russia gained greatly, especially in the non-Western world. It is now recognized as the center of global mutiny' against global dictatorship of the US and EU. It opened one more front of resistance, and it stands alongside countries of Latin America.
Its generally peaceful and measured approach is in direct contrast to brutal and destabilizing methods used by the US and EU all over the globe. Except in those few fully indoctrinated modern-day colonies (which the West calls democracies' just because the people there can stick a piece of paper to a carton box, and most are stupidly doing so), the world is waking up to reality that there actually is, suddenly, some strong and determined resistance to Western imperialism.
After decades of total darkness, the hope is emerging.
In the meantime, two beautiful Slavic countries are still facing each other. But the people, particularly those in Ukraine, are now waving Russian flags and shout to the faces of riot police that is obedient to Kiev: "Russia! Russia!"
No matter what the propaganda says, reality is well known. For decades, after destruction of the USSR, Ukraine mainly obeyed the West and Russia went its own, determinedly independent way.
The result is: Ukraine is on its knees (although not as horribly yet as some East European countries like Bulgaria, that actually became full members of the EU). Wages for workers and pensions for elderly are now approximately 3-4 times higher in Russia than in Ukraine.
And Russia has its own, independent voice, flying all over the world though the outlets like RT and Voice of Russia, while Ukraine is a clearly a colony.
It is obvious in what direction the majority of Ukrainians is now looking with hope. The government should listen. It should also call referendum, soon. It should use direct democracy', not some rigged multi-party charade like in Indonesia.
Two countries that share both history and the future, should embrace. And face the wind, and tremors, together! They should never fight each other Russia and Ukraine are soul mates, not enemies. Those who are dividing them should be exposed, shamed, and expelled!
Ukrainean armored vehicle on Russian border.

Ukraine or Russia, could you really tell difference?

Student leader Irina Drazman in Kharkov.

So called Maidan revolutionaries.

Right wingers took over the city.

Political analyst Alexandr Oleinik.

Oro Western paramilitaries controlling city council of Kiyev.

Maidan mess.

Leader of Borodba Sergei Kirichuk.

Grandmother from Efremovka.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/11/u...realities/

[Lauren Johnson]

The Saker

The situation in the Ukraine has taken a very sharp turn for the worse.

• Two Presidential candidates from the eastern part of the country were assaulted yesterday by Ukie brownshirts. Mikhail Dobkin got away with only paint and flour thrown at him, but reports say that his bodyguard were hurt. Oleg Tsarev got severely beaten, however, and barely escaped the Right Sector lynch mob. No doubt, this will not prevent the "democratic West" from concluding that the elections were free and fair.
  
• A mob of Right Sector activists surrounded the Parliament building in Kiev and accused the regime in power of incompetence and indecision in its repression of the eastern Ukraine. The Right Sector wants weapons do "close down the border with Russia and deal with the insurrection in the East". After some negotiations they gave the so-called "President" 24 hours to yield to their demands. Iulia Tymoshenko was so frightened that she apparently declared that the Right Sector might seize power.
  
• The "anti-terrorist" operation has now clearly begun. Several towns and at least one airport in the East have been stormed by pro-regime forces. Combats are reported from many parts of the region.
  
• In the meantime, the EU and the USA are preparing another round of sanctions against, you guessed it, Russia.
  
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has announced that if the regime in Kiev uses violence the talks scheduled for this Thursday in Geneva will be scrapped.
  
• Putin called Obama and they had diplomats often call a "frank and lively exchange of views"
  
• I have just received the confirmation that the video with the so-called "Russian Lt.-Colonel" is a fake made by a member of the UDAR party of Klitchko (Google translated article here)
  

It appears that after a few days of confusion and chaos, the regime in Kiev and its western sponsors have decided to try to solve the problem by brute force. This maximalist strategy of "no negotiations, only violence" is fully consistent with the usual US practice and the record of the Ukie neo-Nazis. For a few days there were signs that maybe a real negotiation might take place, but now this options seems have been discarded in favor of a violent crackdown. Of course, the recent visit of the CIA director in Kiev (now admitted by the US government) had strictly nothing to do with that. Yeah, right.

Now a lot will depend on how effective the Fascist forces will be in their crackdown. I personally very much doubt that the goal of pacifying the eastern Ukraine is achievable. The freaks can probably put down a town or two, but all of them seems hardly doable, even over time and one by one.

Furthermore, and even though the Kremlin really does not want to end up in this situation, I am quite certain that the Russia military will intervene should the bloodbath become too massive.

I am starting to get the feeling that the West's 1%ers have concluded that a civil war in the Ukraine and/or a Russian intervention might be a better option that a democratic and federalized Ukraine. Within their own logic and twisted system of values, they might be right: there are more and more signs that a referendum or any chance for democracy could be used by the eastern Ukraine to secede. So, in the traditional AngloZionist way, they concluded "if I can't have it, I burn it".

The idea that the Ukraine might turn into another Afghanistan is, however, naive to the extreme. Afghanistan was a country united just about only one thing: the hatred of foreign occupiers. Furthermore, the Soviet troops who fought there were officially doing their "internationalist duty" and not defending their own people and land. Then, while the Soviet Union did occupy all of Afghanistan, thus an large hostile area, I am quite sure that any Russian military operation would stop at the Dniepr (who in Russia or eastern Ukraine needs to live "under one roof" with the Galician Nazis anyway?!). Finally, and contrary to the prevailing myth, the Soviet military was rather successful in Afghanistan and it withdrew only because Gorbachev and the Russian people found it pointless, if not outright immoral, to invade another country. In other words, politics got the Soviet out, not the prowess of the Afghan resistance who could not even take Kabul for a full three years after the Soviet withdrawal.

In contrast with Afghanistan, all the Russian military would have to do is whack the forces involved in the repression against the East and then let the locals take over. Something not unlike what the Russians did in Georgia: they eliminated the Georgian armed forces, helped the folks in South Ossetia and Abkhazia get organized, withdrew and recognized the sovereignty of these republics. One possible option for the Russian military would be to engage in a short but determined attack on key installations and units involved in the crackdown, then let the locals organize their "Republic of Donetsk" or "Novorossia" or whatever else they want to call it and recognize it as an independent state. No such option was even remotely possible in Afghanistan. So all that talk about a "new Afghanistan for Russia" is just wishful thinking by western elites.

The next week will be crucial and the outcome of the conflict will probably be decided in the next days so stay tuned.

Kind regards,

The Saker

It appears that the US/NATO aggressive actions are designed to pull Russia into taking actions that can be twisted into a narrative of The Russian Bear Awakens -- Gird Your Loins.

[Lauren Johnson]

Update from The Saker

The first day of what will become the Ukrainian Civil war has finished and since by tomorrow morning a lot can happen, I have decided to provide this intermediate SITREP update tonight rather than to wait for tomorrow.

The short summary of the day is: absolute chaos and local violence.

A couple of things stand out:

• The same source who reported that the CIA Director John Brennan visited Kiev on Sunday or Monday also say that the US plan is to use the Ukrainian military to blockade the rebel cities and to use special units (national guard, SBU SWAT, a newly created unit called "Shtorm" and Right Sector gangs) to actually do the repression.
  
• In a rather bizarre incident, some Ukrainian officers were told that 30 armed terrorists had seized an airport near Kramatorsk. They landed there supported by APCs and helicopters only to find out that only civilians were present. Rumors say that "several" to "eleven" civilians were killed in that operation. The amazing thing is that the officers really seemed to believe that they would be fighting some kind of military force. When they realize that this was not the case, most of the forces were evacuated and only a smaller force was left at the airport. It is currently surrounded by civilians who are blocking all exists.
  
• Same thing happened to the recon battalion of the 24th Airborne Division which was sent in to locate "terrorists". When the saw that only civilians were present they refused to continue their mission, turned around and left.
  
• A convoy of Right Sector militants disguised as pro-Russian forces (they were wearing Saint George ribbons) were stop and searched by civilians. Soon, after some brutal interrogations the truth became obvious, the trucks full of weapons confiscated and the drivers beat up.
  
• In Kiev the Right Sector has given the so-called President and his regime 24 hours to take action. If not, they promised to overthrow him. In other words, the small, disorganized and demoralized leftover of the Ukrainian police now might be told to put down both the Russian-speakers in the East and the Galician freaks in Kiev.
  
• As for the always amazing White House, its press secretary has declared that the USA "praises" the neo-Fascist regime for its "restraint".
  

Okay, so what is really going on here?

The Ukrainian military is told that it has to stop "terrorists". Regardless of whether they believe it or not, the Ukrainian commanding officers are more or less willing to execute that order. What they seem to be unwilling to do is kill many civilians or, even less so, take a city by force. So they stop in the outskirts and conduct very tense and unpleasant dialog with very hostile and suspicious civilians.

The Ukrainian security services are probably more willing to shoot civilians, but they seem to be really weary of entering the rebel cities, and I can't blame them. Unlike most of the barricades around the cities which are manned with civilians (including women and senior folks), some barricades and buildings inside the city are defended by armed men, some definitely with military experience, and supported by many civilian demonstrators. Any SBU force seen shooting civilians risks being killed by a lynch mob.

The Right Sector thugs would love to kill as many of the accursed Moskals as possible, but they have neither the training nor the numbers to seize a town. And should they be caught they have no hope whatsoever to make it out alive. They will be literally torn into pieces by the locals.

So, to sum it up so far:

1) The Ukrainian military only pretends to participate in the so-called anti-terrorist operation. While some units from Galician might try it, most units are probably unwilling to shoot many civilians.
2) The cops, SWAT teams and SBU special forces probably would not mind shooting into a crowd, but they would be fearful to enter inside the urban environment of a city and storm buildings while having a furious mob all around them.
3) As for the neo-Nazi thugs and common criminals hired by the oligarchs, they have neither the training nor the means to put down a city.

Thus, the first day of that civil war is one of total chaos and confusion with only localized violence. Even if 11 civilians were killed, this is nothing compared with what would happen in the Ukrainian military decided to attack a city with Multiple Rocket Launchers like the Georgian did with Tskhinval in 08.08.08.

A few words about the Russian speaking opposition now.

I have watched as much video footage today as I could and here is what I see:

1) Lots of real civilians, unarmed, including women and seniors. They seem both frightened and very angry. Their plan is to form a human shield to stop the Fascist assault.
2) Lots of determined and solid looking men, many of the coal-mine workers. They are armed with metal rods, sticks and a few Molotov cocktails. Any trained force armed with real assault rifles could easily kill them, but they would probably make minced meat our of Right Sector thugs. These are simple but *very* tough men, and boy do they look mad....
3) An assortment of self-organized armed groups, mostly equipped with handguns and assault rifles, they have some real firepower, but are poorly trained and poorly commanded. They could not stop a determined assault either, but they could provide enough firepower locally to scare off the cops.
4) A few small groups (3-5 men) here and there who look like they know what they are doing. Some are former paratroopers, others have served in other well-trained units. They seem to be trying hard to get a more or less organized resistance going and they probably could mount an intelligent attack on an enemy column (as happened over the week-end in one case). I don't think that these groups are very numerous, but they could show up anywhere and they are therefore a real threat to any attacking force.

Taken separately, none of these defenders amount to much of a force to protect even a small city. However, the combination of these very different type of defenders might present a real problem for the Ukrainian command, especially considering the morale problems on the Ukrainian side and what appears to be a fierce determination triggered by rage and fear by the Russian-speakers.

Besides, urban assault operations are always and inherently very difficult and very dangerous. During such operations the most typical scenario is one where the initial attack appears easy and victorious and then all hell breaks lose and what appeared to be a success turns into a nightmare. It takes not only a lot of firepower to prevail in an urban environment, but also a very strong determination and the willingness to kill a lot of civilians. In the eastern Ukraine almost every civilian runs around with a cellphone or camera so there are "eyes" everywhere and every event is filmed, some are even streamed live on the Internet. Not good for the attackers either.

One more thing: I think that a red line has been crossed today and that now that the entire population in the eastern Ukraine has been assimilated to "terrorists" while the two main candidates to the Presidential elections have been assaulted (and one, Tsarev, charged with, I kid you not, hooliganism and sedition!) there are no more hopes for a federalized unitary Ukrainian state. When civilians were shot today in an official and authorized army attack, which was ordered by the so-called "interim President" and which was praised by the USA for its "restraint" a qualitative change in the struggle occurred. Short of a miracle, my personal conclusion is that Ukrainian experiment has crashed and burned. It's over for "the Ukraine".

For several days I have spoken of an "escape velocity" and I think that today it was reached. To paraphrase a well-known English nursery rhyme:

The Independent Ukraine sat on a wall,
The Independent Ukraine had a great fall.
All the West's money and all the West's men
Couldn't put that Ukraine back together again

The only question now is what human price will the West and its neo-Nazi puppets in Kiev extract from the Ukrainian people before accepting the inevitable?

Stay tuned.

The Saker

[Peter Presland]

Update from The Saker
For several days I have spoken of an "escape velocity" and I think that today it was reached. To paraphrase a well-known English nursery rhyme:

The Independent Ukraine sat on a wall,
The Independent Ukraine had a great fall.
All the West's money and all the West's men
Couldn't put that Ukraine back together again

The only question now is what human price will the West and its neo-Nazi puppets in Kiev extract from the Ukrainian people before accepting the inevitable?

<Snip>

FWIW, I added this comment to the blog because it seems to me that everyone is being just a tad blase about the situation in the Ukraine. Russia has made persistent, statesman-like overtures, outlining the obvious fact that the only way to secure a unitary Ukrainian state is for the current coup regime to include the Eastern provinces in constitutional negotiations and has been just as persistently rebuffed. Obama made serious threats against Yanukovitch about using force against the Maidan 'protest' but refuses to issue similar injunctions against the present regime sending the army to quell similar 'protests' in the East. He's backing his men IOW and any bloodshed will be blamed squarely on Russia.

The ONLY agenda that benefits from chaos in Ukraine is the Anglo-US-NATO one and it has zero interest in reaching a reasonable accommodation with Russia except on its terms - period. So far Russia is calling what it judges to be a bluff (the poker element of the 'game'). My worry (and a non-partisan reading of the publicly available evidence from BOTH sides is persuasive) is that it is no bluff.

Many of the comments here [ie on the VotS blog] assume that the situation in Ukraine will play itself out, one way or another, to a sort of international/geo-political 'business-as-usual' carrying on much as before - much like all the other western-sponsored 'revolutions' IOW - with Russia either the notional winner or loser.

I don't agree and think things are far more serious than that; not least because of ever-worsening US/western economic prospects (they NEED war). This is looking increasingly like 'the big one' to me. By that I mean that, in the US-UK-NATO quest for global hegemony,or even just to maintain the current status-quo, the situation is being maneuvered into a big casus-belli for war with Russia. If the western MSM are any guide, western populations don't need much persuading that Russia is both aggressive and a serious threat - its in their post-cold war DNA. Absurd I know, but that's the way it is I'm afraid. This looks to be shaping up as a definitive opportunity to capitalise on that perception, with the position of Germany being analogous to both 20th century world wars - can the Germans REALLY be that stupid - do they really think they will be on the winning side again ???.

Marx said that history repeats first as tragedy and then as farce. It is to be fervently hoped that is how this plays out, but personally I fear the worst. I also think that Francis Boyle's prediction is a serious possibility, with the Russian's under-estimating a nearly-complete US first-strike capability.

My one gleam of hope is that populations generally - even to some extent in the west - are becoming ever-more aware of the locus of the real evil in this world. [URL="https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Document:Conjuring_Hitler_-_Preface"]Guido Preparata described it like so:
[/URL]

...there is something far worse than Nazism, and that is the hubris of the Anglo-American fraternities, whose routine is to incite indigenous monsters to war, and steer the pandemonium to further their imperial aims.

I would add 'Occult Judaic' to 'Anglo-American' in that quote, but otherwise judge it as spot-on.

[Magda Hassan]

They may have been able to pull this stunt with puppet Yeltsin in the Bely Dom but he's long gone and things have changed there. Unchartered waters. But water always returns to its own level. ::

[Peter Lemkin]

Both sides now have tanks and armored personnel carriers in Ukraine.....I think battles and much blood and death are just one day off.... I see no winners - only the average person loosing.

[Lauren Johnson]

Both sides now have tanks and armored personnel carriers in Ukraine.....I think battles and much blood and death are just one day off.... I see no winners - only the average person loosing.

Maybe not, or maybe the US/NATO people are going to have to try harder this civil war going. There are multiple reports of Ukrainian armored columns being stopped by local villagers. Some have actually switched sides. This YouTube video shows soldiers in a tank column being fed after they switched sides.

[video=youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSFa8nXjMMQ&amp;feature=player_embedded&amp;app=de sktop[/video]

[Lauren Johnson]

Remember Baghdad Bob, you know the guy who was declaring victory, while U.S. tanks could be seen rumbling in the background?

Well, ... here's the Gas Princess' speech as paraphrased by The Saker:

The Russians have sent in their agents to attack the authorities in the eastern Ukraine and seize the weapons caches to then give them to their sympathizers. What the Russians want is to scare us to accept their plan: to turn the Ukraine into a Russian colony. We have to form a new military, a parallel army of volunteers which will beat them back. Then we will negotiate with Putin from a position of force. Our new military will never allow the occupants to get to Kiev. We will engage in a pubic advertisement campaign to ask for volunteer contributions to pay for it. We have to be strong!!

She's not happy with her present military so she's going to get another one paid for by an advertising campaign.

[Magda Hassan]

Remember Baghdad Bob, you know the guy who was declaring victory, while U.S. tanks could be seen rumbling in the background?

Well, ... here's the Gas Princess' speech as paraphrased by The Saker:

... We will engage in a pubic advertisement campaign to ask for volunteer contributions to pay for it. We have to be strong!!

She's not happy with her present military so she's going to get another one paid for by an advertising campaign.

Hill & Knowlton are probbly available to do that.